The number of foreigner workers in Malaysia ( Pasir Gudang, Johor )• Nurul Syifa’ Binti Izhar ( 2013870892 )• Umil Nadiah Binti Nor Hilal ( 2013916608 )

MAT530: INTRODUCTION TO

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

INTRODUCTION• Foreigner is legal immigrants who have the permission of the

state which would be continued under the Act and Regulations

set.

• Foreign workers willing to work in 3D ( dirty , dangerous and

difficult ) with low wages .

ANDARAYA• Have 10 branches offices and 1 of them is

MULTI SARANA SDN BHD.

• Multi Sarana located at Johor.

Multi Sarana

Senai Pasir Gudang

Kota Tinggi

Pontian

( HQ )

• According to Multi Sarana Sdn. Bhd, the highest number of

foreign wokers is in 2015.

• The lowest number of foreign works is in 2014 with only 4

people.

The number of foreign workers in MULTI SARANA PASIR GUDANG

Year Month Day head count Nationality2012 September 22 7 Indonesian

October 2 7 Indonesian 30 6 Indonesian November 9 1 Indonesian 16 15 Pakistan 21 5 Pakistan 24 12 Indonesian 26 10 Indonesian 30 10 Indonesian 1 Pakistan December 1 9 Indonesian 7 3 Indonesian 8 7 Indonesian 9 4 Indonesian 15 6 Indonesian 18 2 Indonesian 20 2 Indonesian 28 4 Pakistan

Year Month Day head count Nationality

2013 March 8 15 Indonesian

14 9 Indonesian

April 4 14 Indonesian

May 1 8 Indonesian

8 1 Indonesian

June 3 1 Indonesian

20 10 Indonesian

26 4 Indonesian

July 17 3 Indonesian

20 3 Indonesian

October 24 2 Indonesian

2014 May 17 1 Indonesian

June 10 3 Indonesian

Year Month Day head count Nationality

2015 May 15 24 Indonesian 18 16 Indonesian June 10 1 Indonesian 12 17 Indonesian 15 25 Indonesian 17 21 Indonesian August 13 5 Bangladesh 19 4 Indonesian 24 2 Bangladesh September 7 9 Bangladesh October 16 5 Indonesian 30 3 Indonesian November 27 5 Indonesian

2016 January 8 24 Indonesian 11 24 Indonesian February 1 7 Indonesian 10 7 Indonesian 19 4 Indonesian March 4 2 Indonesian

METHODOLOGY

• LINEAR MODEL

=

=

LINEAR MODELn X Y X^2 XY Y(predicted) error

sum of squares error(E^2)

1 1 111 1 111 81.8 29.2 852.64

2 2 70 4 140 79.9 -9.9 98.01

3 3 4 9 12 78 -74 5476

4 4 137 16 548 76.1 60.9 3708.81

5 5 68 25 340 74.2 -6.2 38.44

SUM 15 390 55 1151 390 -1.42109E-14 10173.9

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

f(x) = − 1.9 x + 83.7

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

YLinear (Y)Linear (Y)

X (YEAR)

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

Y= -1.9x + 83.7 RMSD=SQRT(E^2/n)

45.10853578

LINEAR MODEL - MANUAL• = • = • A = • = = -95 • = = 4185

• = = =83.7 • = = = -1.9• Y= 83.7 – 1.9x • RMSD = = = 45.10853578

• POLYNOMIAL MODEL

n X Y X^2 X^3 X^4 XYX^2

Y Y(predicted) error

sum of squares

error(E^2)

1 1 111 1 1 1 111 111 102.228 8.772 76.947984

2 2 70 4 8 16 140 280 69.684 0.316 0.099856

3 3 4 9 27 81 12 36 57.568

-53.56

8 2869.530624

4 4 137 16 64 256 548 2192 65.88 71.12 5058.0544

5 5 68 25 125 625 340 1700 94.62-

26.62 708.6244

SUM 15 390 55 225 979 1151 4319 389.98 0.02 8713.257264

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

f(x) = 10.2142857142857 x² − 63.1857142857143 x + 155.2

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

YPolynomial (Y)

X (YEAR)

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

POLYNOMIAL MODEL - MANUAL• = • V = • A = = 700• = = 108640 • = -44230

• = = 7150

• = = = 155.2 • = = = -63.186 • = = = 10.214• Y= 10.214 – 63.186x +155.2 • RMSD = = = 41.74507699

y = 10.214x2 - 63.186x + 155.2 RMSD=SQRT(E^2/n)

41.74507699

• EXPONENTIAL MODELa1

a0 =

y= a0 +a1x

Linearize the expected function :Y = aUnknown : a, bln y = ln aln y = ln a + ln ln y = ln a + bx ln ln y = ln a + bx

•where : – Y= ln yi

– a0=ln a– a1=b– x=xi

n X y Y=ln y X^2 XYy

PREDICT ERRORERROR

SQUARE

1 1 111 4.71 1 4.71 -7.85 12.56

157.79825278634

6

2 2 70 4.25 4 8.50 -6.76 11.00

121.08403902950

9

3 3 4 1.39 9 4.16 -6.11 7.5056.249392097227

4 4 137 4.92 16 19.68 -5.66 10.58

111.90216098654

2

5 5 68 4.22 25 21.10 -5.31 9.5290.721398966127

total 15 390 19.48 55 58.14 -31.68 51.17 537.76

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

f(x) = 3.64392704061791 exp( − 0.00729995947302124 x )

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

Y=ln yExponential (Y=ln y)

X (YEAR)

NUMBER OF FOREIGNER WORKERS

CONCLUSIONTYPES OF MODEL

EQUATION SSE

LINEARY= -1.9x + 83.7

10173.9

POLYNOMIAL y = 10.214x2 - 63.186x + 155.2

8713.26

EXPONENTIAL Y = 3.6439 537.76

•The best model is exponential

model.

THE END…