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Resolving systemic financial crises efficiently
Edward J. Kane*
Department of Finance, Boston College, Fulton Hall 330A, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
Abstract
Systemic crises occur when governmental strategies for preventing and resolving financial-insti-
tution insolvencies fail massively. This paper outlines market-mimicking strategies for preventing and
managing financial crises. Efficient prevention focuses on enforcing adequate levels of bank capital
and being prepared to resolve institutional insolvencies expeditiously when they arise. Efficient crisis
management requires officials to develop, staff, rehearse, update, promulgate, and commit themselves
irrevocably to a market-mimicking plan for managing systemic banking disasters. By adopting these
strategies, a government would make itself accountable for preventing, identifying, and resolving
bank insolvencies at miminum long-run social cost.D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
JEL classification: G21; K23
Keywords: Bank runs; Financial crisis; Insolvency resolution
A systemic financial crisis occurs when widespread depositor runs reveal that most or
all of the accounting capital in a country’s banking system is illusory. To resolve a
systemic crisis efficiently without outside help, a national government needs the three A’s:
adequate tax-collecting capacity, accurate policy advice, and appropriately skilled person-
nel. A country’s top regulators must not only know what sequence of policy actions would
be optimal, they must also be confident that the personnel and financial resources they
command have the capacity to perform these actions in timely fashion.
During the 1990s, most crisis governments lacked the prerequisites for undertaking
optimal action. What these governments did possess was ready access to external
assistance. Like most offers of help, crisis assistance came with strings attached. Multi-
lateral and bilateral assistance brought with it suboptimal policy advice that protected the
interests of foreign creditors by directing recipient governments to play for time, without
stopping to measure or adjust the depth of the inadequacies in their fiscal capacity and
supervisory systems that brought the crisis about.
0927-538X/02/$ - see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S0927 -538X(02 )00044 -6
* Tel.: +1-617-552-3986; fax: +1-617-552-0431.
E-mail address: [email protected] (E.J. Kane).
www.elsevier.com/locate/econbase
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226
External lenders espoused the rosy view that, in the midst of crisis, the urgent
macroeconomic problem of reliquifying domestic bank deposits could be addressed
separately from the microeconomic problem of measuring and distributing the losses that
the official balance sheets of insolvent banks still concealed (Fischer, 2001). Fiscally
underpowered governments were urged to guarantee the liabilities of insolvent and solvent
banks alike. While the credibility of these indiscriminate guarantees turned in the short run
on well-publicized lines of credit from supranational institutions, foreign banks, and
foreign governments, in the long run a crisis government’s ability to fulfill its commit-
ments depended on its ability to carry out a series of unlikely reforms in monetary, fiscal,
and trade policies and in the quality of bank supervision.
Recipient governments were persuaded to put aside, until crisis pressures passed, the
task of controlling bank risk-taking to concentrate on curtailing disruptive depositor runs.
However, this policy sequence embodies a time-inconsistent strategy that successor
governments are bound to regret. Blanket guarantees reduce incentives for depositors to
monitor insolvent and undercapitalized banks, and backing up these guarantees imposes
substantial deferred costs on taxpayers. In the absence of a fair distribution of preexisting
losses, indiscriminate guarantees fail to correct whatever combination of corrupt and risk-
taking behavior drove the country’s banking system to its knees in the first place.
Insurance theory refers to the conflict between the objectives of insureds and the
insurers as the problem of moral hazard. Crisis countries should not be advised to ignore
the dangers posed by moral hazard. To prevent depositor discipline from being under-
mined by government guarantees, it is critical to simultaneously adopt guarantee structures
and insolvency resolution strategies that promise to make contractual bank stakeholders
bear their fair share of accrued losses. When a government’s capacity to observe and
resolve bank insolvencies is inadequate, the more sweeping its guarantees of bank debt
and the longer crisis pressures persist, the more unbooked debt moral hazard loads onto the
ordinary taxpayer’s economic balance sheet.
Creditor institutions have not advised crisis governments to calculate the costs of moral
hazard, nor have they urged these governments to track the opportunity cost of the fiscal
resources that would be required to make good on blanket guarantees. The result is that
crisis governments have not made themselves accountable for assuring that the benefits of
quickly halting depositor runs equaled or exceeded the costs that playing for time has on
the country’s unbooked fiscal deficits and increased exposure to future crises.
The next two sections of this paper outline market-mimicking strategies for preventing
and managing financial crisis. The final section summarizes how governments that
promulgate and adhere to these twinned strategies will render themselves accountable–
in crisis and out of crisis–for preventing, identifying, and resolving bank insolvencies in
an economically efficient manner.
1. A market-mimicking strategy for crisis prevention1
Institutions become economically insolvent when their tangible and intangible assets
can no longer generate enough income to fully service their obligations to creditors.
1 This section and the next draw heavily on Kane (2001a,b,c).
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226218
Insolvency resolution is the process of recognizing and assigning shortfalls in corporate
capital. Resolution entails formally writing down the claims of owners and creditors to
values that add up to the reduced market value of corporate assets (MVA).
Corporations may be said to fall into ‘‘financial distress’’ well before the market value of
stockholders’ stake in the firm (MVNW) reaches zero. Because the probability of financial
distress is a function of endogenous decisions about leverage and earnings volatility, lenders
typically insist that borrowers accept a package of disclosure and risk-control obligations as
part of the debt contract. For creditors and guarantors, these covenanted obligations increase
the transparency of borrowers’ affairs by requiring borrowers to conduct and report the
outcomes of a series of periodic tests of their current financial strength and evolving
vulnerability to future loss. Covenant violations that appear to have no material effect on
lenders’ position are waived. However, whenever one or more violations seem material,
creditors can insist that the borrower remedies the violation or enters into negotiations to
reprice the loan or otherwise mitigate the damage inflicted on the lender.
Covenant violations may be thought of as windows that throw light on areas of
corporate loss exposure that standard accounting reports do not. Covenants increase the
chance that insolvency resolution negotiations can begin before the market value of
borrower net worth has been fully exhausted. Borrowers and lenders have a strong
incentive to work out minor violations. Lenders that are dissatisfied with the ‘‘quid’’ a
borrower offers in exchange for waiving a material violation typically have the right to
demand immediate repayment of their debt. Because enforcing this right would reveal the
borrower’s still-concealed weakness to third parties, a breakdown in negotiations is apt to
intensify a borrowing firm’s distress and possibly force it to seek formal bankruptcy
protection.
To assure that bank capital requirements are truly risk-sensitive, government regulators
must put themselves into a lender’s mind-set. They must impose covenant-like reporting
and loss-control obligations on each bank they supervise. To control moral hazard, banks
must be made to regularly measure how well their capital can support their current risk
exposures and convey to regulators market-mimicking rights to demand that apparent
shortfalls in capital be alleviated in rapid order. In the United States and many other
countries, a bank’s incentives to report truthfully are enhanced by on-site examinations and
civil and criminal penalties for fraudulent and negligent misrepresentation. The more
strongly self-reporting obligations are enforced, the more effectively regulators can
monitor and police individual bank insolvency on behalf of depositors. Policing entails
the power to order stops to unacceptable administrative practices or behavior and to
impose escalating penalties on any nonconforming firm. Escalation may take the form of
progressively higher deposit insurance premiums and/or progressively tighter surveillance.
Regulators must recognize that deterrent regulatory discipline cannot always stop a
distressed bank’s slide into economic insolvency. To follow market-mimicking principles
of insolvency resolution, officials must prepare themselves to take control of a bank more or
less as its insolvency emerges (Kaufman and Scott, 2000). After takeover, officials would
proceed to make two further decisions: what to do with the bank, and how to restructure
preexisting creditor, stockholder, and government claims on its assets (Hart, 2000). If
officials determine that it is more efficient for society to keep the bank in operation, the
second decision results in a plan to recapitalize and perhaps to restaff the institution. If
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226 219
officials decide to shut down the bank, the second decision entails liquidating the bank’s
assets and distributing liquidation proceeds among government and private stakeholders
more or less in accordance with the bank’s contractual obligations to each party.
Efficient crisis prevention policies entail a series of cost-efficient expenditures on
monitoring and enforcing the adequacy of bank capital and on preparing to resolve
individual bank insolvencies promptly when they arise. Adopting such market-mimicking
principles of insolvency prevention and resolution is a necessary condition for crisis
prevention expenditures to be cost-efficient. The next section describes market-mimicking
requirements that should govern expenditures incurred in crisis management.
2. A market-mimicking strategy for crisis management
Banking crises occur when a government’s day-to-day policies for preventing and
resolving individual bank insolvencies have been circumvented on a massive scale (Todd,
1994). Some degree of circumvention is likely because accounting records are imperfectly
informative, and government officials face different incentives in monitoring and dis-
ciplining distressed banks than private creditors would (Kane, 2000). Officials’ reluctance
to acknowledge their incentive conflicts compromises crisis prevention activities and
supports an underinvestment in disaster planning. This underinvestment harms taxpayers,
in that it justifies a time-inconsistent approach to crisis management and increases the
ability of stakeholders in insolvent banks to extract implicit and explicit subsidies when
and as the threat of an actual crisis intensifies.
Politically, a banking crisis is a nasty struggle about which sectors’ wealth is to be forced
to absorb the capital shortfalls that insolvent banks have amassed. Without ready access to
reliable information and a reasoned plan of crisis management, inexperienced authorities
are apt to see little alternative to the 1990s protocol of indiscriminately guaranteeing the
liabilities of insolvent institutions and leaving the problem of subsequently scaling back the
blanket guarantees to an unspecified later (and quieter) time. Although blanket guarantees
provide a quick way to stabilize aggregate liquidity, they surrender longer-run incentive
benefits that would be generated by promptly marking down devalued assets and allocating
the opportunity losses these markdowns convey to bank stakeholders who can be identified
as having voluntarily agreed to finance the now-troubled assets.
Regulators’ efforts to convince taxpayers that financial crises are unthinkable cata-
strophes look suspiciously like disinformational attempts to avoid accountability for
unduly lenient strategies of insolvency resolution. Systemic and near-systemic crises are
not uncommon. Looking at the two decades ending in 1999, Caprio and Klingebiel (1999)
enumerate 112 instances of systemic crises in 93 countries and 51 borderline episodes in
46 countries. Additional crises have occurred in several other countries since. In fact, the
threat of disruptive exits looms in any industry where competition is intense. Being
allowed to frame the emergence of exit pressure in the banking industry as an unfore-
castable and uncontrollable disaster allows supervisory officials to shirk their duty to
observe and resolve exit pressure in timely fashion.
When suppressed evidence of widespread banking weakness surfaces suddenly, it is
tempting for officials to minimize their embarrassment by arguing that bank runs are
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226220
destructive and that their spread must be halted at all costs. Because a crisis intensifies the
tenuousness of incumbents’ hold on their office, exaggerating the odds of triggering a
contagious loss of depositor confidence is a reputationally and politically convenient
strategy. It allows officials to turn a blind eye to the depth of particular insolvencies and to
defer loss distribution to a later date. Such a policy extracts risk capital from taxpayers and
invests it inefficiently. The investment is inefficient for two reasons. First, even if a
subsequent turnaround in the macroeconomy restores the value of a troubled bank’s assets,
private stakeholders rather than taxpayers reap the bulk of the benefit. Second, banks that
are permitted to operate with free capital are attracted to inappropriately risky loans.
As summarized in Fig. 1, Honohan and Klingebiel (in press) establish that in settling
recent crises, the burden placed on taxpayers has typically exceeded 10% of GDP. Using
regression analysis, these same authors show that taxpayers’ burden proved higher in
countries that adopted indiscriminate guarantees than in countries that employed a sterner
crisis management strategy.
To position bank regulators to make time-consistent choices, taxpayers must formally
oblige officials to develop, staff, rehearse, and update regularly a well-publicized strategic
plan for managing a systemic banking disaster and must also oblige their government to
follow this plan when a crisis ensues. In most practical endeavors, the quality of one’s
performance is a function of one’s talent, knowledge, and experience. Even the most gifted
musicians, surgeons, and athletes have to regularly practice their skills and be encouraged to
search unstintingly for new and better ways of doing things. By likening a systemic financial
breakdown to a building collapse, it is easy to see that a complete disaster management plan
must address three problems: (1) rescue and triage, (2) panic control, and (3) cleanup. The
next three subsections outline efficient procedures for addressing each problem in turn.
2.1. Rescue and triage
When a tall building collapses, appropriate actions and decisions must be taken
expeditiously. Rescue and medical personnel and equipment must be moved onto the
scene and put to work as soon as possible. Survivors must be promptly diagnosed and
queued for treatment. Ambulances and other vehicles must be commandeered to shuttle to
clinics and hospitals whatever wounded parties can be safely moved. To the extent that it is
feasible, survivors must be interviewed for information about the identities and potential
locations of missing persons. Body-sniffing dogs may be used to further pinpoint salvage
efforts. Barriers must be erected to keep gawkers from interfering with operations.
When a banking system collapses, governments must execute parallel actions and
decisions. The casualties that need to be found and treated are the stockholders, employ-
ees, depositors, and nondeposit creditors of a nation’s banks. Regulators cannot expect to
uncover individual casualties efficiently unless they have previously formulated an
integrated disaster plan, hired appropriate personnel, and drilled staff members under
simulated crisis conditions in plan execution. In an emerging crisis, staff members must be
able to visit and diagnose the condition of institutions undergoing depositor runs without
having to hang back to await detailed instructions to flow down from on high.
The first team of officials dispatched to a troubled bank should be forensic bank
examiners. These officials must have the authority to take immediate possession of relevant
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226 221
data and must possess the financial expertise to measure the depth of a bank’s hidden
insolvency in a quick and dirty manner. Their findings must be forwarded promptly to a
second team of treatment specialists whose job is to estimate the degree and character of
help that would most efficiently put the institution’s various stakeholders on their feet again.
Both in crisis countries and abroad, higher officials need this kind of advice to determine
how much and what kind of assistance to extract from taxpayers and foreign institutions.
Fig. 1. Fiscal costs of banking crises.
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226222
In exchange for whatever financial assistance that domestic and foreign officials decide
to ask taxpayers and foreign banks to supply, a crisis government must be empowered to
levy enforceable claims on the future profits of each troubled bank it keeps in operation. In
a demonstrably insolvent institution, the new claims should either greatly diminish or
completely extinguish the rights of former shareholders. At a minimum, authorities should
carve out a warrant position large enough to compensate suppliers of public risk capital for
the administrative and risk-bearing costs of contributing to a rescued bank’s recapital-
ization. In all cases, governments and supragovernmental institutions that receive equity
positions would do well to commit themselves to offer their claims to private parties once
reliable information on asset values emerges.
During an emergency, the autonomy of information collection teams must be supported
at every level of government. Although accountability requires that staff judgments be
reviewed and criticized later, triage assessments cannot be postponed to wait for formal
ratification by incentive-conflicted and less-informed higher-ups. Government officials
must condition one another and the press to respect the proposition that, in dealing with
hopelessly insolvent institutions, it is inappropriate to devote public funds either to
preserving the positions of stockholders and subordinated creditors or to paying lofty
salaries to discredited managers.
In the aftermath of a building collapse, emergency personnel cannot divert their limited
surgical resources to sewing up the wounds or setting the broken bones of dying
individuals. To neutralize the plaintive pleas for mercy that wounded bank stakeholders
are bound to emit, supervisors and the public must be taught in advance why it is efficient
in deeply insolvent institutions to annihilate stockholders’ position and to cut back
management salaries. Basic corporate finance theory clarifies that the economic value
of stakeholders’ aggregate claims against a corporation can never exceed the fair market
value of its assets. Hence, whenever a bank’s assets lose a substantial portion of their
value, the total value of the bank’s obligations decline to the same degree. Adverse
information about borrower prospects or about hidden bank frauds or trading losses that
destroys asset values destroys realizable liability values in tandem.
2.2. Panic control
Panic refers to hysterical behavior that spreads through a group when its members are
exposed to a horrific vision or event. The triggering event in a banking panic is the
surfacing of adverse information that destroys public confidence in the repayment capacity
of several of a nation’s banks. This loss of confidence may be based on either rational
calculation or (far more rarely) wholly irrational fears. The trigger can take the form of
general information about the consequences of major economic events or information that
is specific to individual banks or to a class of assets they are known to hold.
A banking panic combines the phenomenon of simultaneous runs on multiple banks
with a seizing up of opportunities for interbank borrowing and for sales of usually liquid
securities. In a panic, bank runs and fears of runs become so widespread that individual
banks can no longer raise funds quickly by selling portfolio assets to other parties at fair
prices. Institutions not experiencing runs back away from lending funds to affected banks
so as to support more firmly the convertibility of their own deposits into cash.
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226 223
Panic control turns on keeping the nation’s money supply from shrinking. The central
bank and foreign officials can offset the negative effects of regulators’ triage efforts by
standing ready both to purchase good assets they are offered for sale and to lend
vigorously to demonstrably solvent or near-solvent banks.
As Kaufman and Seelig (2000) emphasize, how depositors are treated at failed banks
can greatly assist the central bank’s liquidity maintenance efforts. Insured depositors
should be granted access to their funds as soon as this becomes administratively feasible
and uninsured depositors should be accorded a just degree of immediate fractional access
to their balances. Determining the fraction of an insolvent bank’s uninsured deposit
balances that can be immediately withdrawn should be founded on the conservative
valuation techniques that the teams of forensic examiners and treatment specialists are
required to rehearse at frequent intervals. Each emergency examination would estimate the
percentage of uninsured deposits that liquidators could reasonably expect to recover if the
bank’s tangible portfolio were to be liquidated at a later date in an orderly fashion. To
reflect the margin for error inherent in the rough-and-ready loss assessments the
emergency examination teams produce, the percentage haircut applied to uninsured
balances should be somewhat lower than this figure. Bank employees would be directed
to set the frozen part of each uninsured balance aside and stand ready to unfreeze it in
stages as it proves possible to assess more accurately the value of intangible positions and
the depth of each bank’s insolvency.
Summarizing, a panic ends when aggregate liquidity is restored. To do avert a panic, a
country’s central bank must maintain aggregate liquidity. It can do this efficiently by open-
market operations, even while allowing supervisory personnel to assess a financial
institution’s wounds before paying out deposit insurance claims or granting banks and
their formally uninsured creditors irreversible access to liquid government funds. Injec-
tions of liquidity from domestic and external sources must be directed as exclusively as
possible toward insured depositors, recoverable portions of uninsured balances, and
putatively solvent institutions. Hopelessly insolvent institutions must be identified and
control over them transferred smoothly into socially responsible hands.
It should be understood that, even during forensic examiners’ brief insolvency assess-
ment timeout period, urgent private transactions can and will still take place. Would-be
transactors would have strong private incentives to use standard and innovative forms of
credit to prevent transactions from grinding to a halt. For example, credit cards and checks
can be accepted–especially if supplemented by ad hoc documents or collateral– to
establish evidence of personal indebtedness. Claims to the amounts on the instruments’
paylines would become collectable in part from other sources if authorities place into
liquidation the bank on which they are drawn.
2.3. Cleanup
Unlike triage and panic control, the cleanup tasks of reprivatizing problem assets and
banking franchises and collecting payments from problem borrowers require careful rather
than quick decisions. In most crises, the information that lowers bank asset values is
broadly accurate. This means that liabilities supported by the lost asset value become
‘‘junk’’. Regulators should promptly remove junky liabilities from bank balance sheets.
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226224
The market-mimicking standard of policy response asks bank supervisors to operate the
economic equivalent of a junkyard.
The junkyard’s job is to identify and gather near-worthless assets and liabilities and to
dispose of them quickly and efficiently. Officials are asked to do this–not to punish
anyone–but to restore healthy incentives for subsequent investment and economic growth
by clearing bank balance sheets of unsupportable claims on future returns that would
generate new losses by dangerously distorting future lending incentives.
Market-mimicking cleanup procedures center on surgically separating diseased assets
from the healthy parts of troubled bank portfolios. In practice, this involves either selling
troubled assets at market value to a preexisting workout specialist or specifically chartering
a new public or private entity to extract maximum value from the problem borrowers. This
good bank/bad bank surgical model was pioneered in the 1990s by US regulators and has
been copied with some degree of success in several other countries since.
The expectation that ownership claims and uninsured liabilities will expire when they
become valueless is necessary for lending and deposit markets to function appropriately.
Writing down the realizable value of unsupportable assets and liabilities in bad states of
the world is a crucial part of the evolutionary process of economic renewal that
Schumpeter brilliantly characterized as ‘‘creative destruction’’.
Despite the temporary disruption bank runs invoke, in the long run, depositor runs
assist society by forcing sleepy authorities to repair, rehabilitate, or eliminate troubled
banks and problem industries in a more timely fashion. The desire to end a panic quickly
must not override the need to identify hopelessly insolvent enterprises and to wind up their
insolvency in an efficient manner. Issuing blanket government loans and guarantees to
solvent and insolvent banks alike is time-inconsistent because it greatly reduces sub-
sequent political and economic pressure for cleanup. Guarantees release managers,
stockholders, and creditors of troubled institutions from the spur of bearing due
responsibility for loss-making decisions they directly or indirectly ratify. Indiscriminate
guarantees reinforce perverse lending and investment incentives and promise to expand
rather than reduce the number of negative present-value investments a country undertakes.
3. Summary discussion
In many countries, government plans for recovering from a financial disaster amount to
expecting to call frantically on supragovernmental institutions, foreign governments, and
foreign banks for help. Moreover, these potential rescuers often plan in turn to extract their
help from the country’s taxpayers in hidden ways.
Public choice theory clarifies that authorities’ reliance on self-serving rather than
market-mimicking strategies of crisis management is evidence of weaknesses in public
sector governance. Poor governance creates accountability resistance and fosters conflicts
of interest between taxpayers and financial regulators in individual countries and also in
cross-country relationships. To be economically efficient, regulatory strategies must
enforce market-mimicking concepts of insolvency, insolvency prevention, and insolvency
resolution. Supervisory standards must not focus merely on averting depositor runs.
Efficiency requires that regulators in different countries and in supranational organizations
E.J. Kane / Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002) 217–226 225
credibly commit themselves and their successors to fair and efficient policies of insolvency
resolution and crisis management as well.
Optimal supervision minimizes the depositor discipline that safety-net guarantees
displace. Depositor disciplinary activity is displaced by government guarantees because
guarantees directly undermine depositors’ incentives to look out for themselves by
gathering, analyzing, and reacting to news about changes in their banks’ financial
condition and risk exposures (Demirguc�-Kunt and Detragiache, in press; Demirguc�-Kuntand Sobaci, 2001; Laeven, 2000). Other things equal, the more supervisory responsibility
a government accepts, the more effectively large depositors and foreign-bank creditors can
exploit an unstructured crisis situation. They can lobby for a government bailout by using
the media to blame the government for whatever losses triage officials propose to allocate
to them. On the other hand, depositor discipline may be expected to increase with
strategies of prompt insolvency resolution and with crisis planning. The market-mimicking
strategies proposed here lay down a baseline pattern of responding to bank insolvency that
curtails officials’ discretion. This curtailment lessens the extent to which owners and other
formally uninsured stakeholders can expect to extract important regulatory benefits or
highly subsidized loans if their bank becomes insolvent.
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