Promoting Regional Cooperation in Northeast Asia on Climate Change

Dr. Sh. Enkhbayar, Senior Research Fellow, Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA)

Dr. Georgy Safonov, Invited Overseas Researcher, ERINA/National Research University-Higher School of Economics

Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian SecurityIII International Conference

16-17 June 2016

Outline

1. Introduction

2. GHG Emissions Global Trend Northeast Asia (NEA)

3. NEA at the Crossroads: Carbon Future vs the LEP (Low emission path) NEA Emission Reduction Targets “Carbon Budget” & Carbon Future LEP Alternatives and Prospective Projects

4. Conclusions

2

1. Introduction

• While the world’s climate has always varied naturally, the vast majority of scientists now believe that rising concentrations of “greenhouse gases (GHG)” in the Earth’s atmosphere resulting from economic and demographic growth since the industrial revolution are overriding this natural variability and leading to potentially irreversible climate change;

• Scientists warn that the planet is warming faster than previously thought and we must limit the global mean temperature rise to 2 C from the pre-industrial level (GHG concentration in the atmosphere must be stabilized below 450 ppm), (IPCC);

• CO2 from energy represents almost 70% of global anthropogenic emissions (IEA);

• The global primary energy demand is expected to grow further by around 20% by 2030 from the 2013 level, whereas about 1.3 billion or 18% of the global population still have no access to electricity (IEA, 2015).

• As the IEA noted: “Given the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at any level would require a large reduction of global CO2 emissions from current levels”;

• Thus, we face a dual challenge of economic growth and preserving the environment and climate at the same time.

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Historic Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

18

50

18

64

18

78

18

92

19

06

19

20

19

34

19

48

19

62

19

76

19

90

20

04

Global cumulative CO2 emissions from fuel

combustion, billion t CO2

Gas Liquid fuels Solid fuels

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

Overall carbon emissions reached

over 1.4 trillion tons of CO2 since 1850

FACT - Rise of all GHGs’ concentrations

Source: IPCC, 5AR, 2014

2. GHG Emissions: Global Trend and NEA

Source: IEA database

CO2 Emissions by NEA Countries, Million tCO2

-

2 000.0

4 000.0

6 000.0

8 000.0

10 000.0

12 000.0

14 000.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Japan Rep. of Korea Russia DPR of Korea China Mongolia

NEA: GHG Emissions by Sources

JAPAN (2014)Energy

Industry

Agriculture

Waste

RUSSIA (2014) CHINA (2005)

Rep. of Korea (2012)

MONGOLIA (2006)DPR of Korea (2002)

Source: UNFCCC database

Drivers of CO2 Emissions (Kaya Decomposition)

7

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

World

Japan

Korea

Russia

DPRK

Mongolia

PRC

Average annual percentage changes between 1990-2012

Carbon intensity(CO2/TPES)

Energy intensity(TPES/GDP)

GDP per population(GDP per capita)

Population

CO2 emissions

GHG emissions continue to rise due to population and wealth growths.

1364

657

22

2812

1042

536

44

2758

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Japan Rep. of Korea Mongolia Russia

National GHG Reduction Targets under the Paris Agreement (Million CO2e)

2014 (MNG-2010, RK-2012) 2030

Source: UNFCCC database

3. NEA at the Crossroads: Carbon Future vs the LEP (Low emission path): NEA Emission Reduction Targets

NEA GHG Emissions Reduction Targets

Quantified Economy-wide

Emission Reduction Targets for

2020

INDC (Intended Nationally

Determined Contributions)

Japan 3.8% reduction in 2020 compared to the

2005 level.

26% reduction by FY2030 compared to

the FY2013 level (25.4% reduction

compared to the FY2005 level.

Russia Reduction within a range of 15% - 25%

by 2020, compared with the 1990 level.

25%-30% reduction by 2030 compared

to 1990 levels.

ROK Reduce by 30% from “business as usual

(BAU)” emissions in 2020.

37% reduction of its BAU emissions by

2030.

China Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by

40% - 45% by 2020, compared to the

2005 level.

Peak by 2030, lower CO2 emissions per

unit of GDP by 60% - 65% by 2030

from the 2005 level.

Mongolia Non-quantified reduction measures. 14% reduction by 2030 compared to

BAU (excluding LULUCF).

9Source: UNFCCC (Submissions by the Governments to the UNFCCC)

CO2 Accumulation Capacity of the Atmosphere

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1800-18491850-1899

1900-1949

1950-1999

2000-2012

Over 50%

of capacity

has already used...

~2°C

Limit of emissions for 20C target

With current

trend, the rest

will end up

in the 2040s

Source: IPCC (2013-2014)

3 NEA at the Crossroads: Carbon Future vs the LEP (Low emission path): Carbon Budget

GHG emissions must peak by 2020, then have to drop to less than half of 1990 level.

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0

50

100

150

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Billion tonnes CO2

per year

Business As Usual:- Atmospheric CO2

concentration rises to 980 ppm;- The world gets 4.9°C

warmer.

Low Emissions Path: - Atmospheric CO2

concentration is stabilized

at 450 ppm;- Temperature rise is below 2°C.

Source: Adapted from Climate Scoreboard © Climate Interactive 19 April

2013 www.ClimateScoreboard.org

Carbon Budget of Northeast Asia Consistent with the Low Emission Path (LEP)

12

Year

Global CO2

Emissions

consistent

with the

LEP

Gt/year

CO2 Emissions from Fuel CombustionAnnual Carbon

"Budget" (MtCO2)

World

total Gt/

year

Share of

global

total %

World, total,

MtCO2

NEA, total

NEA

share,

%

World NEA

1990 27.64 20.97 76% 20,974 5,869 28%NEA shall emit

7,567 MtCO2 less

in 2050 than it

emits currently.Average

2010–

2012

37.7 31.2 83% 31,187 11,307 36%

2020 41.26 34.17

83%

34,174 12,385

36%

2,987 1,077

2030 27.37 22.67 22,669 8,215 −8,518 −3,092

2040 18.29 15.15 15,149 5,490 −16,038 −5,817

2050 12.46 10.32 10,320 3,740 −20,867 −7,56

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Note: Carbon budget = LEPYEAR – Current CO2 (av.2010-2012)

Carbon emissions from combustion of all these fuels would lead to emission of 4.7 trillion t CO2. The NEA alone is able to warm the Earth by 2 degrees Celsius 3 times!

Reserves of Conventional and Non-conventional Fuels in the North East Asian Countries

Coal Oil Natural gas Shale oil Shale gas Gas-hydrates

Reserves of fuels, bln toe

China 79.8 2.6 2.9 90.2 94.9 100.0

Russia (Siberia+Far East)

121.8 14.4 27.1 174.0 0.3 913.0

Mongolia 70 na na 11.9 0.05 na

South Korea 0.1 na na na na 1.2

North Korea 3.2 0.1 na na na na

Japan 0.2 na na na na 16.6

Total reserves, bln toe

275.1 17.1 30.0 276.1 95.2 1030.8

Carbon emissions, Billion tCO2

1,089.6 52.5 76.3 847.7 223.9 2,421.1

3. NEA at the Crossroads: Carbon Future vs the LEP (Low emission path): Carbon Future

Carbon Future: World Coal Deposits

Source: Maps of world http://www.mapsofworld.com/business/industries/coal-energy/world-coal-deposits.html

Carbon Future: Shale Oil and Gas

Source: Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

Carbon Future: Methane-hydrates

Source: World Ocean Review http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/energy/methane-hydrates/

Alternatives?

Coal Oil Natural gas Shale oil Shale gas Gas-hydrates

Carbon emissions, Billion tCO2

1,089.6 52.5 76.3 847.7 223.9 2,421.1

Due to the climate change, we have to leave over 80% of this carbon underground/underwater.

But what are the alternatives?

3. NEA at the Crossroads: Carbon Future vs the LEP (Low emission path): LEP

Renewable Energy Potentials in NEA

Wind Solar PV Hydro Biomass Geothermal Tidal

China 1500 - 2800 GW 2700 GW 400 - 700 GW 273 - 648 Mtce/y na 20 - 100 GW

Japan 1800 GW 350 GW 44 GW na 14 GW >87 TWh/y

Russia (Siberia+Far East)

3910 TWh/y 2300 mtce/y 1441 TWh/y >500 TWh/y >20 TWh/y >100 GW

Mongolia 900 - 1100 GW >1000GW 6.4 GW na na na

South Korea 186.5 TWh/y 10.4 TWh/y na na na >4 GW

Renewable energy resources are sufficient to cover all the energy needs of NEA. Thus, cooperation among the NEA countries may reduce costs, improve reliability of energy supply, facilitate economic growth and technological modernization.

Prospective Low Carbon Projects in NEA

• Wind and solar PV (Mongolia): • Gobitech: ~5800 TWh/y

• Power supergrid to Eastern Asia

• Tidal power generation (Russia):• Penzhinskaya station and

Tugursky bay: ~100-120 GW

• Nano-tubes application for basic materials (Rosnano/Russia+S.Korea…):• Globally - 331 bln tCO2 reduction by 2100

4. Conclusions

• The current efforts of NEA countries on GHG mitigation are not sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change;

• If the region is to stay within the boundaries of its carbon budget in compliance with the global 2°C target, all the fossil fuels need to be replaced with renewable energy or other zero-emission alternatives by 2050;

• In fact, renewable energy potentials in NEA is sufficient enough to meet all the energy needs of the region;

• Therefore, NEA countries need to enhance cooperative activities to realize various ideas and prospective projects already in the pipeline;

• This UB dialogue is one of the important platforms to exchange views and enhance cooperation in the region; and we welcomed the inclusion in this dialogue (UBD) a special session on environment for the first time. We hope the environmental issues will emerge as a regular pillar of further discussions within the framework of the UBD;

• As the next/first step to enhance the regional environmental cooperation, we propose to begin experts’ level joint study to formulate the “Strategy and Action Plan for the NEA Low Emission Path (LEP)”and we will be happy to extend our further collaboration.

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