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MEAT AND PROTEIN ALTERNATIVESA LOOK INTO THE CURRENT AND FUTURE STATE OF MEAT, SUBSTITUTES, AND PLANT-BASED FOODS
September 2020
Contents
SECTION 1
Global landscape Growth drivers Regional zoom-in
Prospects How to win?
Understanding the historical and current
performance of meat and meat
substitutes
Page 2
Identifying the key factors stimulating
demand for meat substitutes and plant-
based foods
Page 9
A zoom-in to the largest and fastest-
growing meat substitutes markets in the
world
Page 18
Highlighting emerging developments in
meat and meat substitutes that are likely
to have an impact over the next five years
Page 24
A review of the main considerations for
businesses looking to tap into meat
substitutes
Page 31
SECTION 2 SECTION 3
SECTION 4 SECTION 5
SECTION 1
Global landscape
The global landscape
section provides an
understanding of
historical and current
trends in meat
consumption and the
current state of the
meat substitutes
market
SECTION 1
Mature meat markets drive the deceleration of growth in meat
consumption globally
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
Poultry and pork are the leading types of meat
consumed globally
• Poultry consumption is driven by China, the US
and Brazil, while pork consumption is primarily
driven by China.
• Although from a smaller base, Vietnam, the
UAE, Egypt, Australia and New Zealand are
among the top five fastest growing markets for
poultry globally.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Volume of Fresh Meat and Processed Meat Consumed Globally 2015-2019
Fresh meat Processed meat Year-on-year growth
Poultry
Pork
Beef and veal
Lamb, mutton and goat
Other meat
Global Split of Fresh Meat
Volume Sales by Type (2019)
• On a global scale, consumption of fresh meat surpasses
consumption of processed meat. As of 2019, fresh meat
accounted for 88% of meat consumed around the world.
• Growth deceleration, or the contraction of meat consumption
in mature markets such as China and Russia, contributed to
the global marginal growth of meat in 2019.
• Meat reduction-driven dietary changes, environmental and
ethical concerns and the increased availability of substitutes
have slowed the growth of meat globally.
Mill
ion tonnes
SECTION 1
Globally, China and the US are the largest consumers of fresh and
processed meat, respectively
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
0.30.91.31.41.61.72.02.12.32.52.62.7
4.46.7
7.712.512.8
30.5
UAEMoroccoThailandAustralia
SpainUnited Kingdom
JapanItaly
FranceVietnam
South AfricaGermany
MexicoRussia
IndiaUSA
BrazilChina
Fresh Meat Retail Volume (million tonnes, 2019)
UAE
Vietnam
Morocco
Mexico
India
Fastest growing retail
markets for fresh meat
(year-on-year growth)
7.6%
4.2%
3.8%
3.2%
3.1% 0.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.4
0.60.60.70.8
1.31.3
2.44.0
ArgentinaSouth Korea
IndonesiaEgypt
CanadaBrazil
MexicoPhilippines
PolandSpainJapan
ItalyUnited Kingdom
FranceRussia
GermanyChinaUSA
Processed Meat Retail Volume (million tonnes, 2019)
India
Philippines
Russia
Thailand
Turkey
Fastest growing retail
markets for processed meat
(year-on-year growth)
8.8%
7.1%
7.1%
6.8%
6.1%
Developing markets such as India, Mexico and Vietnam are the driving forces for fresh and processed meat
• Large populations in countries such as China, Brazil and the US have been a key driver of meat consumption globally.
• However, it is developing markets that are supporting the current consumption levels of meat. Countries such as
Vietnam, India, Thailand and Mexico registered year-on-year growth rates ranging from 3% to 9% in the past year.
• Demand for fresh and branded pork and other types of meat is driving growth in overall meat consumption in India.
• Growing demand for poultry in Mexico is also supporting overall meat consumption in this Latin American country. Health
concerns around the consumption of red meat have led to poultry being the main meat consumed in Mexico.
• Premium and organic meat products are experiencing strong demand in developing countries, and this is expected to
continue being another driving factor in the fresh and processed meat categories.
SECTION 1
Consumption of fresh and processed meat falls in key Western markets
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
-5.8%
0.9%
-0.7%-1.6%
-2.8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
China USA Germany France Spain
2018/2
019 y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
Reta
il volu
me (
mill
ion tonnes)
Fresh Meat Consumption, Five Lowest Performing Markets in 2019
-1.5% -2.0%
-3.9%-3.0%
-1.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
1
2
3
4
5
Germany France Argentina Norway Greece
2018/2
019 y
ear-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
Reta
il volu
me (
mill
ion tonnes)
Processed Meat Consumption, Five Lowest Performing Markets in 2019
Health-consciousness is driving declines in fresh and processed meat consumption in Germany and France
• In Germany, the decline in meat consumption in 2019 was driven by reduced consumption of pork, the biggest type of
meat consumed. Pork is increasingly seen as less healthy than other meats, such as poultry. Furthermore, there are
early signs of sales cannibalisation of meat by meat substitutes.
• Unsustainability of meat agriculture and production, increased sensitivity towards animal welfare and the active reduction
of saturated fats have influenced the ongoing decline in meat consumption in France.
China is one of the few developing markets registering a strong decline in fresh meat consumption in 2019
• China’s recent decline in fresh meat consumption can mainly be attributed to large declines in pork consumption. African
swine fever has affected China’s pig farmers and supply levels. Similarly, awareness of African swine fever has affected
consumers’ perceptions, and this has contributed to declines in pork consumption.
SECTION 1
Global overview of meat substitutes
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
-0.7%
7.6%4.8%
9.5%4.5% 4.3%
2.0%
8.3%4.7%
1.6%
21.5%
-2.3%
14.6%
2.1%
8.7%5.8%
-5.2%
7.4%11.5%
6.3%
13.8%
2.2%
8.8%6.1%
47.6%
9.5%
0.0%
21.4%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year-
on-y
ear
gro
wth
rate
(2018/2
019)
Reta
il volu
me (
‘000 t
onnes)
Meat Substitutes Consumption, Other Countries in 2019
60.5%25.5%
14.0%
Meat Substitutes Consumption,Top Two Largest Markets
(retail volume, ‘000 tonnes, 2019)
China
Japan
Other countries
4,259.4
• The maturity of meat substitutes in China and Japan is due to traditional
consumption of soy products and tofu.
• South Korea, the US, Indonesia, and the UK complete the top six
largest markets for meat substitutes globally.
• Of these, the UK registered the strongest growth in 2019, growing by
10%, driven by new product launches, negative press for red meat, and
an increasing number of consumers switching to plant-based diets.
• Finland, Canada, Norway and France are amongst the fastest
growing markets for meat substitutes. Canada has witnessed
increased consumer interest in chilled meat substitutes, driven by
changing diets and increased education. For example, the updated
Canadian Food Guide has a greater emphasis on plant-based proteins.
SECTION 1
Key product and brand highlights within meat substitutes globally
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
Beyond Burger Impossible Burger Quorn pieces Veega meatballs
• Quorn is known for providing
meat-free mince, pieces,
fillets and nuggets.
• Quorn is one of the leading
meat substitute brands in the
world. It was acquired by
Monde Nissin, the world’s
largest noodle company.
• The company claims that its
products are a healthy
alternative protein that can
lower cholesterol levels.
• Within meat imitation products, burgers, fish
substitutes and chicken nuggets are emerging as
subcategories. Burgers is particularly contested, as
the grand fast-food prize, attracting investors’
attention.
• These burgers contain a range of non-meat protein,
such as from peas or soy, and often use beetroot
juice to mimic blood.
• Impossible Burger contains an ingredient called
Heme, considered the “magic ingredient” that makes
the burger taste like meat.
• Veega by San Miguel Foods
offers a wide range of meat-free
formats, including sausages,
burgers, nuggets, giniling
and meatballs.
USA EU /Philippines
SECTION 1
Who are the emerging leaders in plant-based products?
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
• As of 2019, Sagamiya Foods Co (Ltd) was the
leader in meat substitutes globally. Sagamiya is a
leading brand in Japan, driven by its tofu-based
product range.
• Monde Nissin Corp, a Philippines-based company,
is the second largest player globally. Its acquisition
of Quorn, its new meat substitutes brand, has led to
its rapid penetration of the meat substitutes category
globally. Quorn is mainly popular in Western
European markets such as the UK, Ireland,
Belgium and Sweden, as well as Australia.
• Beyond Meat Inc is the fastest growing company
in meat substitutes. The company has now
become one of the most influential companies in the
category, based on investment raised and quantity
of media coverage.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nestlé SA
Otokomae Tofu Ten Co Ltd
ConAgra Brands Inc
Beyond Meat Inc
Pulmuone Co Ltd
Takano Foods Co Ltd
Kellogg Co
Asahico Co Ltd
Monde Nissin Corp
Sagamiya Foods Co Ltd
Top 10 Largest Global Brand Owners in 2019 (retail value, USD million)
91.1% y-o-y growth
Investors see big money and opportunity in being part
of the change in meat consumption in Europe and
North America. Tyson Foods, Nestlé, Kerry Group,
PHW Gruppe and even the Chinese government
have invested in companies developing meat
substitutes and cultured meat.
Tofu-based
Mycoprotein-based
(Non-traditional)
Tofu- and soybean-based
SECTION 2
Growth drivers
This section identifies
the leading factors
supporting demand
for meat substitutes
globally. Some of the
growth drivers explored
in this section are
health awareness,
changing consumer
diets and environmental
considerations.
SECTION 2
The driving forces in plant-based protein and meat substitutes
GROWTH DRIVERS
Key factors
driving
growth of
meat
substitutes
Consumer lifestyles
Environmental impact✓ Livestock greenhouse gas emissions contribute to climate change
✓ There is a link between meet reducers and climate change worriers
Government policies✓ Health guidelines from
governments worldwide agree
that meat intake should be
limited/reduced
✓ Increasing product innovation and campaigns
are bringing the health and sustainability of
plant-based protein to the fore
Product innovation
✓ Flexitarian is a new term associated
with individuals who follow a flexible
vegetarian diet with the occasional
consumption of meat, typically for
health or other purposes
✓ The rise of flexitarianism helps to drive
the growth of plant-based foods and
meat substitutes
SECTION 2
Health and animal welfare concerns are leading motivations behind
consumers opting for a vegan diet
GROWTH DRIVERS
Source: Euromonitor International´s Health and Nutrition Survey, 2019
(Respondents that declared they follow a vegan diet n=691/20,166)
Blanks means no selection for such answer
• Health concerns and animal welfare concerns are
leading factors behind the adoption of a vegan diet.
Over 41% of global respondents choose vegan
options because it ‘makes them feel better’.
• Meat consumption (particularly red meat and
processed meat) is often associated with health
risks such as heart disease and cancer. Consumers
are therefore educating themselves on the health
benefits of reducing meat consumption and are
adjusting their diets accordingly.
• Ethical motivations such as animal welfare are also
influencing dietary changes among consumers
globally. Consumers are increasingly concerned
about the treatment of animals on large farms.
• Although the number of consumers who follow
a vegan diet is still growing from a small base,
the underlying motivations behind these dietary
requirements are also often applicable to
consumers opting for vegetarian and flexitarian
diets.
SECTION 2
Growth in meat reduction, not meat avoidance, leads to the rise of meat
substitutes and consumption of plant-based protein
• Unlike vegans and vegetarians who
practice meat avoidance, flexitarians
typically reduce their consumption of
certain animal-based products,
without having to commit to a strict
vegan/vegetarian diet.
• There are 628 million vegetarians in
the world, with more than half of
them from India. Globally, the
vegetarian population grew at a rate
of less than 1% a year since 2010. It
is shrinking as a percentage of the
total population.
• On average, the percentage of a
country’s population trying to
limit their meat intake exceeds
that of the vegetarian population
by 15%. In many countries, the rise
of flexitarianism will be the main
driving force for the growth of plant-
based protein and meat substitutes.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
India
Tha
iland
Chin
a
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Co
lom
bia
Ita
ly
Po
land
Indo
ne
sia
Me
xic
o
Bra
zil
So
uth
Afr
ica
So
uth
Ko
rea
Turk
ey
Au
str
alia
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
US
A
Ru
ssia
Ja
pa
n
Meat Avoidance vs Reduction in 2019
Vegetarian population % of population trying to limit meat intake
GROWTH DRIVERS
SECTION 2
Vegan-labelled products are benefiting from the rise of flexitarianism
• Besides meat substitutes, vegan-
labelled products are also benefiting
from the rise of flexitarianism across
multiple continents, although there is no
visible increase in full-time vegans.
• Globally, the UK is the world leader
for sales of vegan-labelled products,
followed by the US and Germany.
• Although falling behind the US and the
UK in sales of vegan-labelled packaged
food, Germany is among the leaders
globally for sales of vegan-labelled
products. This can in part be attributed
to the association Proveg, which has
contributed to taking veganism from
negative to trendy connotations in many
parts of Germany, especially in Berlin.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
UnitedKingdom
USA Germany Australia ItalyU
SD
mill
ion
Vegan-labelled packaged food
2016-2019
2016 2017 2018 2019
Sainsbury’s was the first UK
supermarket to launch vegan
BBQ Ribs, made from tempeh
(fermented whole beans), in
May 2019, aiming to combine
convenience with taste.
GROWTH DRIVERS
SECTION 2
Environmental messages generate more awareness around meat
consumption and its impact on the planet
GROWTH DRIVERS
SECTION 2
Meat reducers often worry about climate change
GROWTH DRIVERS
BrazilChinaFrance
Germany
India
Japan
Russia
United Kingdom
USA
Mexico
Australia
ColombiaIndonesia
Italy
Poland
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Turkey
Middle East
Canada
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
% m
ore
lik
ely
to
be
wo
rrie
d a
bo
ut clim
ate
Share of population reducing meat
Note: Based on the answers of 28,487 respondents globally
Meat Reduction vs Concern about Climate Change▪ UN figures state that the
livestock industry has an adverse impact
on climate change, since it creates more
greenhouse gases than the
transport industry. Currently, there are
almost 22 billion animals bred for the
industry, with cattle accounting for 1.4
billion.
▪ Research indicates that meat reducers
are more likely to show more concern
about climate change.
▪ For example, developed markets such
as the US, the UK, Australia, Germany,
France and Poland stand out as
markets in which people who are
reducing their meat consumption are
more likely to be motivated by
environmental concerns.
▪ Environmentally concerned consumers
who are reducing their meat intake are
still a minority. However, this consumer
group is expected to grow over the next
five years.
SECTION 2
Pioneering innovations in meat substitutes drive supply
GROWTH DRIVERS
• Many meat processors are keeping a close eye on the meat substitutes category, and some meat processors are even
investing in it. Tyson, Nestlé, ABP, Hilton, JBS and Maple Leaf have all done so. In recent years there have been many
product launches, such as Nestlé’s Incredible Burger, Gold&Green’s Pulled Oats and Vivera’s Quarter Pounder.
• It is also worth noting that competition is not only arising from large food companies, but also from local and smaller
companies. Some markets, such as those in Western Europe, are currently witnessing market fragmentation in meat
substitutes, allowing potential consolidation opportunities.
• With more companies getting involved and launching new product concepts, consumers will continue to have access to a
wide selection of meat alternative products, boosting consumption.
Gold&Green’s Pulled Oats Vivera’s Quarter Pounder
An advantage which appeals to investors is that meat substitute products can be patented, unlike meat. As such,
there is room for new business models and greater margins. Creating tasty products with good mouthfeel also requires
a great deal of know-how, which serves as a barrier to entry for potential new competitors.
SECTION 2
A move towards policies that actively seek to lower meat consumption
GROWTH DRIVERS
According to the latest food
pyramid released by the Danish
Consumers Cooperative Society
in 2011, animal protein sources
were moved to the top of the
pyramid, whilst vegetables were
moved to the bottom of the
pyramid. Research is currently
underway in Denmark, looking
at ways to adapt quinoa to the
Danish climate and grow it in
the country in order to have a
better supply of meat-free
protein alternatives.
Scientists from the National
Institute for Public Health and
the Environment in the
Netherlands have advised
people to avoid eating too
much animal protein, as a
debate over increasing the tax on
meat gathers pace. Whilst the
report did not recommend an
optimum level of meat
consumption, spokesperson
Toon van Wijk said people
should not eat more than 500g of
meat per week. Only 300g
should come from red or
processed meat.
The Chinese government has
outlined a plan to reduce its
citizens’ meat consumption by
50% by 2030. New dietary
guidelines drawn up by China’s
health ministry recommend that
the nation’s 1.3 billion population
should consume between 40g
and 75g of meat per person each
day. These measures are
designed to improve public
health, but could also lead to a
significant cut in greenhouse gas
emissions.
The French food safety
agency, ANSES, has issued
national updated dietary
guidelines urging consumers
to “considerably reduce” their
consumption of meat.
ANSES has recommended that
the consumption of delicatessen
produce such as ham, sausage
and pâté “does not exceed 25g
per day”, and the consumption of
meat, excluding poultry, such as
beef, pork and lamb, “should not
exceed 500g per week”.
A global consensus is forming on the desirability of reducing meat intake, formed around the recommendations of
the World Health Organization (WHO), which says that red meat intake should be limited to around 500g per week.
It also recommends that processed meat should be avoided totally, or consumed in very small amounts.
SECTION 3
Regional zoom-in
Understanding some of
the largest and
fastest-growing meat
substitutes markets
across the globe, their
key success drivers,
and other market
dynamics.
SECTION 3
Meat substitutes in Japan and China is expected to witness a larger
contribution from non-traditional meat substitutes
REGIONAL ZOOM-IN
Meat substitutes in China and Japan is currently dominated by
tofu- and soy-based products
• In 2019, a local Chinese start-up launched the Zhen brand of
mooncake, with a meat substitute filling made with protein
extracted from peas. This meat substitute, which is mainly
distributed online, is catering to the growing interest in non-
traditional meat substitutes amongst younger consumers.
• Tofu- and soybean-based products in Japan have reached
maturity, leading to projected stagnant growth in the overall meat
substitutes category. This will open up opportunities for non-
traditional meat substitutes, as this type of substitute product is
expected to expand, satisfying emerging demand from millennials
and gen Z.
• However, tofu is expected to continue contributing to the forecast
performance of meat substitutes in both Japan in China, as it is
perceived as naturally healthy. The premium quality and superior
hygiene of packaged tofu is expected to resonate with those
consumers who shy away from wet markets.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Th
ousands o
f to
nnes
Consumption of Meat Substitutes in China 2015-2024
Meat substitutes retail volume Meat substitutes y-o-y growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Th
ousands o
f to
nnes
Consumption of Meat Substitutes in Japan, 2015-2024
Meat substitutes retail volume Meat substitutes y-o-y growth
Coronavirus (COVID-19) considerationsIn 2020, meat substitutes has seen a spike in demand due to excess
purchasing and stockpiling activity across both Japan and China. This is
aligned with similar observations in other staple food categories.
Consequently, in 2021, meat substitutes is expected to register a strong year-
on-year decline in volume consumption as demand levels revert to normal.
SECTION 3
Tofu remains the dominant meat substitute in Southeast Asia
REGIONAL ZOOM-IN
4.8%
8.5%
4.5%
2.1%1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Th
ousands o
f to
nnes
Consumption of Meat Substitutes in Southeast Asia (2019)
Meat substitutes retail volume Meat substitutes y-o-y growth
In Southeast Asia, both tofu and tempeh are part of
daily consumption, with tofu contributing 98% of
packaged meat substitutes in the region. Both tofu and
tempeh are part of several traditional dishes in the region,
such as Tempeh Penyet in Indonesia, Adobong Tokwa in
Philippines, and Laksa in Singapore and Malaysia.
Source : https://omnipork.co/
With consumers’ habits and taste preferences for these
traditional flavours and formats, it is somewhat difficult for
new-age meat substitutes to penetrate the market.
• Indonesia and Vietnam are amongst the fastest growing markets
for meat substitutes in Southeast Asia. Growth in these
countries has primarily been driven by habit persistence of
consumption of tofu and tempeh.
• Formalisation of unpackaged tofu and its increased
availability in modern retail has been another growth driver.
• For example, Yun Yi tofu is still mainly sold as unpackaged tofu in
Indonesia, but due to increased demand for packaged products, it
is now also available in many major modern retailers.
• Singapore and Vietnam are emerging markets showing
consumer interest in non-traditional substitutes. Health-
conscious consumers are purchasing vegetarian products offered
by domestic players such as Omn!pork, Vissan and CJ Cau Tre.
• Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to register 5% and 10% retail
volume CAGRs respectively over the forecast period (2020-2024).
Source: The Impossible Wellington at Bread
Street Kitchen, Singapore
SECTION 3
Product innovation in Western European markets to drive growth of
meat substitutes over the forecast period (2020-2024)
REGIONAL ZOOM-IN
Substitution potential is high in France, the UK and Germany, all markets in which meat consumption is forecast to fall
• In the UK, besides consumers’ health-driven dietary changes, the increasing prices of meat and seafood
have also contributed to a slight shift from meat to meat substitutes. Similarly, the UK has seen new
product launches from Quorn, Tesco’s Wicked Kitchen and Beyond Meat. Large meat corporations such as
Anglo Beef Processors have also expanded their product range by launching meat substitute products.
• In France, consumers are interested in meat substitutes, but remain cautious about the products being
highly transformed and not clean label. Whilst meat is very clean label, meat substitutes are considered in
the same light as ready meals.
• Meat substitute products that are positioned as ‘healthy’ are gaining traction from new consumers in
Germany. Brand manufacturers have implemented innovation-led strategies to improve the taste and
texture of their products, as these are also key considerations in consumers’ decision-making. Furthermore,
discounters such as Aldi introduced meat substitutes to their shelves, with Aldi launching a veggie burger
called Wonderburger in the past year.
2
3318
7
48
2013
70
23
0
20
40
60
80
France UK Germany
Th
ousands o
f to
nnes (
reta
il) Meat Substitutes Consumption in Key Western European Markets 2015/2019/2024
2015 2019 2024
SECTION 3
Canada to become one of the fastest-growing meat substitute markets
in the Americas
REGIONAL ZOOM-IN
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Fresh meat
2015 2019 2024
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Processed meat
2015 2019 2024
0
50
100
150
200
Meat substitutes
2015 2019 2024
12.4% CAGR (2020-2024)
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f to
nn
es
Consumption of Meat and Substitutes
in Canada
(total volume)
1.8% CAGR (2020-2024)
5.1% CAGR (2020-2024)
• Over the past five years, Canadians have increased their
consumption of meat substitutes, with one of the key reasons
being wanting to limit or reduce their current meat
consumption.
• Weight management, animal welfare and gut health are other
leading considerations by Canadian consumers when opting to
diversify their protein intake and purchasing meat substitutes.
• Meat substitutes is expected to grow faster compared with fresh and
processed meat; forecast to register a 12% CAGR over the forecast
period.
• Industry sources suggest that Canada is responsible for only less
than 5% of new product launches globally, meaning that there is
significant investment opportunity for new players to enter meat
substitutes in the country.
Maple Leaf Foods, a leading
player in processed meat and
seafood in Canada, acquired
its new plant-based Lightlife
brand in 2017, and has
launched new plant-based
product formats across both
retail and foodservice.
Source : https://lightlife.com/en-ca/
The next slide also shows a similar breakdown for other
important meat substitutes markets
SECTION 3
Summary of other meat substitutes markets
REGIONAL ZOOM-IN
Thousands o
f to
nnes
Consumption of Meat and Substitutes in Key Markets
2015/2019/2024
(total volume)
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Fresh meat
2015 2019 2024
1.3% CAGR (2020-2024)
9,500
9,600
9,700
9,800
Processed meat
2015 2019 2024
3.3% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
200
400
600
Meat substitutes
2015 2019 2024
24.3% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Fresh meat
2015 2019 2024
3.3% CAGR (2020-2024)
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Processed meat
2015 2019 2024
0.8% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
40
80
120
Meat substitutes
2015 2019 2024
7.0% CAGR (2020-2024)
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Fresh meat
2015 2019 2024
1.9% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
500
1,000
1,500
Processed meat
2015 2019 2024
-2.5% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
5
10
15
20
Meat substitutes
2015 2019 2024
15.0% CAGR (2020-2024)
200
250
300
350
400
Fresh meat
2015 2019 2024
2.4% CAGR (2020-2024)
20
40
60
80
Processed meat
2015 2019 2024
3.9% CAGR (2020-2024)
0
2
4
6
Meat substitutes
2015 2019 2024
3.2% CAGR (2020-2024)
SECTION 4
Prospects
Exploring long-term
potential
developments in meat
and meat substitutes,
while understanding
how these will influence
the way consumers
approach meat
consumption in the
future.
SECTION 4
China and the US will play an important role in supporting the growth of
meat substitutes over the forecast period
PROSPECTS
Global retail volume sales of meat substitutes are expected
to see moderate growth over the forecast period (2021-
2024), registering a 3% CAGR
• The projected healthy growth of meat substitutes in China
and the US will help support the growth of meat substitutes
globally over the forecast period.
• In China, meat substitutes consists mainly of soy products
such as tofu. Soy products are seeing a notable shift from
small factories and artisanal shops to larger-scale production,
contributing to future growth. China is likely to remain the
market leader for the next five years, with more than a 50%
share of total volume sales of meat substitutes.
• The US was the third biggest consumption market for meat
substitutes in 2019, and the leader in terms of innovation.
Processed meat and seafood manufacturers have also begun
looking more closely at the opportunities in alternative
seafood production, which offers great opportunities for
overall meat substitutes.
2,577 2,886
2,772
2,859 2,938 3,013
1,0881,207
1,074 1,075 1,077 1,079524
563578 605 636 671
71
9293 98 105 111
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Reta
il volu
me (
‘000 t
onnes)
Global Meat Substitutes Consumption Forecast, 2019-2024
China Japan Rest of the world
USA Global y-o-y growth
COVID-19 considerationsIn 2020, meat substitutes has seen a spike in demand due to stockpiling
activity across markets all over the world. Consequently, in 2021 meat
substitutes is expected to register a strong year-on-year decline in volume
consumption, as demand levels revert to normal towards 2024.
SECTION 4
Despite being categorised as processed food, meat substitutes suppliers
attempt to create a healthier image
PROSPECTS
• Meat substitutes technology could potentially usher in a new
era of sustainable food that could help to slow down the rate of
consumption of the Earth’s resources and mitigate the effects
of climate change.
• However, meat substitutes (unlike fresh meat) are processed
products, mostly built from isolates of natural ingredients,
whereby only about 60% of the protein contained in the plant
can be extracted. In addition to the loss of several useful
nutrients, most meat substitute products also have a very high
sodium content, containing about 16% of the recommended
daily value.
• For this reason, many consumers are likely to become more
selective and careful when buying meat substitute products,
given their health concerns.
• In response to this, many manufacturers are already thinking
of ways to best cater to the expected wave of consumer
demand by highlighting their products’ natural ingredients, and
health claims such as being organic and having no artificial
ingredients, among others.
• Health and wellness needs to be a key consideration for
producers of meat substitutes in the future, to create
competitive advantages and unique selling points that
attract not only consumers who are conscious about
sustainability, but also consumers who are conscious
about their health.
Smoky Maple Bacon
Tempeh from Tofurky Organic Teriyaki from
TofuBaked
Soybean sausages from
Polsoja
Organic Jackfruit Meatballs
from Edward & Sons
SECTION 4
Product innovation in meat substitutes expected to be driven by growing
consumer health concerns
PROSPECTS
Rising concerns about health and wellness will drive the plant-based protein industry to innovate and offer opportunities for
suppliers and manufacturers to enter the market with new healthy meat substitute products
• Originally, plant-based foods were mostly served as a substitute for red meat and poultry. However, health-conscious consumers of
meat substitutes are demanding variations of flavours, textures and formats, opening up opportunities for new product development in
seafood-inspired meat substitutes. For example, Tyson Foods, a key player within processed meat and seafood, has already begun to
invest in an alternative seafood start-up called New Wave Foods, which focuses on creating plant-based shrimp products.
• In order to appeal to both health- and sustainability-conscious consumers, meat substitutes globally has started to see numerous
brands that position themselves as organic, natural and meatless, claiming to contribute to a more nutritious diet with low or no carbs,
as well as high protein. This is expected to resonate not only amongst vegan, vegetarian and flexitarian populations, but also amongst
mass-market consumers who are trying to reduce their meat intake due to health concerns or disease prevention.
• As consumers’ interest in plant-based foods grows, companies should consider incorporating health and wellness into their current
business model and investing in product innovations around this topic.
Hilary’s organic veggie burgers New Wave’s plant-based shrimp Tuno’s plant-based seafood
SECTION 4
Blended meat products perceived as a step-transition to plant-based
protein and meat substitutes
PROSPECTS
• Besides being the key driver of sales of plant-based protein, flexitarianism has also opened up another avenue for
blended meat products, with meat as a key ingredient, but combined with more plant-based content.
• This is the epitome of “meat reduction” (as opposed to cutting out meat altogether), and satisfies consumers who are
seeking healthier options without sacrificing taste.
• These blended products, which are seeing increased availability, are perceived as a gradual transition to help
consumers reduce meat before moving on to the next stage with plant-based protein. As such, these launches
have received positive feedback from the majority of consumers who identify as flexitarians, or who are pursuing
healthier choices.
In June 2019, Tyson
announced a new Raised
and Rooted brand,
featuring “patties blended
with beef and plants”, that
hit shelves at the end of
2019.
In June 2019, Perdue Foods
launched Chicken Plus - a line
of chicken nuggets, tenders
and burgers made from
chicken and cauliflower,
chickpeas, and plant protein.
Misfit Foods launched
meat-blended sausages,
with the starring
ingredients being kale,
gold squash and sweet
potato.
SECTION 4
Cultured meat has the potential to be the “future of food”
PROSPECTS
Cultured meat is lab meat created by using muscle
stem cells from a fully-grown animal, cultivating
them in a nutrient-rich growth medium to become
muscle tissues.
• Advocates of cultured meat claim several
advantages of lab meat over fresh meat and
consider it as the future of food. Although fresh
meat is seen as a better protein source because of
its perception as a more “natural” source of protein,
cultured meat positions itself as the ideal solution to
provide a more ethical, sustainable and healthier
protein source.
• Since 2013, cultured meat exploratory work and
development has increased. In 2020, there are
nearly 30 start-ups working on cultured meat
production around the world. They expect to get
their products to market within the next few years.
• Cultured meat is expected to become an important
sector within the meat industry over the next 10
years, when it will begin to become a viable
alternative to the conventional meat industry.
Lower environmental impact
Less strain on natural resources
Hormone-free
Antibiotic-free
Customised nutrition
High protein
“Clean” meat
Healthy living
Sustainability
Animal welfareAnimal-friendly
Slaughter-free
Cultured meat
New
meat substitutes
Current
meat substitutes
SECTION 4
18.2%
Cultured meat could profit from “safer” claims
PROSPECTS
Amongst the main aspects which cultured meat could capitalise on
are food safety and avoiding disease, thanks to the exclusion of
slaughterhouses from the meat production process
In 1997, many countries were hit by an outbreak of bird flu, when
governments worldwide had to order the slaughter of more than a billion
chickens, ducks, pigeons and other birds to contain the spread of the
virus. Fast track to 2020, and the global pandemic COVID-19, caused by
animal-hosted viruses, has spread to 213 countries and caused hundreds
of thousands deaths.
Historically, there have been many diseases caused by close contact
with animals, through the hunting, trading or consumption of these
animals, such as bird flu, SARS, Spanish flu, COVID-19, etc. Such
activities place the world at an increased risk of contracting new
diseases. For this reason, consumers are more likely to be attracted
to cultured meat as a safer and more sustainable option, with
COVID-19 being an influencing factor.
Looking forward, cultured meat brands see great opportunities
surrounding health and wellness attitudes, as consumers are becoming
more active in seeking healthier options that can improve their health and
boost their immune system. Potentially being able to offer a
personalised and individualised nutrition profile that caters to
various nutritional deficiencies, cultured meat shows great
possibilities in being a new food revolution and mitigating some of
the health, environmental and social costs that traditional meat
consumption brings.
SECTION 5
How to win?
This section further
highlights key
business
considerations
companies should
review when making
decisions concerning
meat substitutes,
whether these are
marketing, product
innovation or pricing
decisions.
SECTION 5
Euromonitor International’s plant-based scorecard inputs
Animal
welfare
Dairy
alternatives
Edible
insects
Lab-cultured
meat
Meat
analogues
Categories Key metrics
analysed
• Market size (value and
volume)
• Historic and forecast
growth
• Consumer survey data
• Socio-demographic
data
• Substitutes
• Retailing
Countries
54 researched countries
within Euromonitor
Passport database(Note: Country coverage may
vary based on data availability
and by each category)
Time period
2013 to 2023
2019 (base year)
HOW TO WIN?
SECTION 5
Besides the US and China, Western Europe has potential – offering
opportunities for meat substitute companies in the future
THE FUTURE
501 483 493 472 449371 361
459369
190 201 181 198 217215 217 66
75
691 684 674 670 666586 578
525444
0
200
400
600
800
1000
USA France UnitedKingdom
Germany China Australia Thailand Spain Vietnam
Index s
core
Meat substitutes: Key markets based on scorecard
Market size & growth Consumer & socio-demographic
Top performing Other high
performers
• While the US is known as one of the
market leaders for meat substitutes, due
to market consumption and innovation,
Western Europe’s performance is strongly
influenced by consumers’ tendency to
avoid meat, which has been developed
over the years through the efforts of
NGOs propagating veganism and
vegetarianism within the region.
• Environmental concern, the adoption
of a flexitarian diet and new product
innovation are key drivers of meat
substitutes in the US and many Western
European countries.
• Rising demand for clean labels,
alongside healthier branding and
nutritional profiles for processed food,
are also contributing to the growth of meat
substitutes in markets in Asia, as well as
other parts of the world.
Source: Euromonitor International
HOW TO WIN?
SECTION 5
New Zealand companies looking to launch new meat substitutes should
focus on aligning their products with the right market
• In order to better penetrate new
markets, food suppliers need to be
aware of the existing food culture
within their target market. This is
true for both lab-grown meat and
plant-based meat products which
aim to be direct replacements for
meat products.
• In 2019, China, the US, Brazil and
India formed the four largest meat
consumer markets globally.
• Globally, poultry accounted for 41%
of the total meat volume, followed
by pork (31%) and beef and veal
(21%).
• In the next five years, the total
meat volume globally is expected to
register a CAGR of 1.8%, of which
poultry forms 42% of the future total
meat volume, followed by pork
(32%) and beef and veal (20%).
• Growth in beef and veal is
expected to slow down compared
with past years, as beef-heavy
markets are becoming more
saturated and consumption in
Western Europe is set to see a
marginal decline.
• With the rise of meat reducers, it is
likely to be easier for producers to
introduce specific types of meat
substitutes to markets that have a
high demand for that specific type
of meat, i.e. producers could
potentially introduce pork-based
meat substitutes to markets that
have high demand for pork, such
as China.
HOW TO WIN?
Beef and Veal Lamb, Mutton
and Goat
Pork Poultry
China India BrazilUSA Australia
SECTION 5
New Zealand companies also need to provide competitive price points,
as consumers have a wider product choice in stores
HOW TO WIN?
• An interesting innovation in 2018 was the German insect burger. It was a timely introduction,
as insect protein has been on the agenda and is positioned as high in protein, free from
additives and sustainable. However, at EUR30 per kilo, it was not priced attractively. Unlike
the insect burger, The Frozen Butcher Angus Burger, a meat-based substitute competitor in
the premium range, was only priced at EUR16 per kilo.
• A Euromonitor International storecheck producing a rough average of unit prices in
processed meat and meat substitutes from a selection of 15 German supermarkets,
discounters and online retailers came to the same conclusion: although the price per SKU
is in many cases slightly lower for comparable meat substitutes, the smaller pack
sizes mean that the price per kg is 43% higher for meat substitutes – a barrier for
reaching the mass market.
Picture from bugfoundation.com
Picture from frozenbutcher.com
As new players join meat substitutes globally, companies must have competitive
pricing strategies while still highlighting any health or functional benefits
• Increasing demand for meat substitutes across many markets around the world is attracting
small and large players alike to enter the category and launch new products.
• Companies are launching new flavours, ingredients, formats and meals in order to
differentiate their products and maintain high premium price points in certain markets.
However, as these products become more available, and the choice is vast, it is expected
that consumers will keep a closer eye on prices, whilst also focusing on value propositions.
• Private label is expected to play a larger role in the price competition, with countries such
as Germany and Australia starting to see more private label plant-based products in stores.
SECTION 5
New players should think about a health and wellness positioning when
developing marketing strategies for meat substitutes
HOW TO WIN?
Beyond Meat launched a new advertising campaign in 2019
focusing on fitness, featuring a range of well-known sports men
and women. Toning down the ethical and sustainable and
including more happy meat eaters in the target group is a
skilled approach to brand-building that has not quite been
seen in the sector before. Claims about the superior quality
of plant protein for athletes have been used before, by Swedish
retailer Coop in 2017 and Danish Naturli’ in 2018, yet Beyond
Meat’s campaign goes further in the direction of a fitness
positioning. The campaign also connects meat substitutes to
athletes outside the sports arena, depicting their daily lives full
of love, care for the planet and new generations, and focuses
on healthy eating.
Macros is a ready-made meal delivery service provider in
Australia which is gaining popularity among consumers due to
its healthy positioning. More recently, Macros intensified its
marketing and promotional efforts for its plant-based meal
range. The company positions its meals as dietitian-
approved and as free from preservatives, additives,
artificial ingredients and others. This further suggests that
marketing and positioning around health benefits and
meal functionality is an increasing way of communicating
a message to consumers. Highlighting key ingredients,
providing transparent information on product manufacturing
and verification or certification with health organisations are
becoming common practice amongst brand manufacturers or
foodservice providers of meat substitutes.
Source : https://www.macros.com.au/
SECTION 5
The permanent shift in consumer preference to health and wellness-
related products may help spur growth for plant-based products
Source: Euromonitor International (Voice of the Industry Survey COVID-19, n=4819)
HOW TO WIN?
▪ The recent global pandemic boosted
consumers’ interest in staying healthy. More
than 31% of respondents expect a permanent
change in their purchasing habits, whereby they
purchase more health and wellness-related
products following the emergence of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
▪ The availability of general functional products to
enhance health is seen as one biggest concerns
for consumers during and after the COVID-19
lockdown.
▪ COVID-19 will put natural and healthy
ingredients back under the spotlight.
Incorporating health and wellness messaging
into brand images would help plant-based
protein suppliers to generate consumer interest.
▪ An emphasis on the affordability of plant-based
protein products will also be critical as
consumers look to reduce their overall spending
either permanently or over the mid-term.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Buy more health and wellness-relatedproducts
Buy more products to improve life athome
Reduce overall spending
COVID-19 changes views of health and spending
Permanent change
Mid-term change, but will eventually return to pre-crisis norms
Short-term change only (Q1 and Q2 2020)
No Change
Not Sure
Key takeaways and recommendations
1New Zealand companies looking to explore overseas opportunities in meat substitutes are encouraged to focus not only
on markets that have a large size, but also those that are witnessing rapid expansion. Fast-growing meat substitute
markets such as Canada, the US, Vietnam, Australia, France and others are good starting points to look for market entry
opportunities.
2As discussed in this report, globally meat substitutes is being driven by multiple factors. Nevertheless, the growing number of
flexitarians across the world is an important consumer shift that businesses must consider when developing food products and
meal solutions moving forward. Consumers are not necessarily trying to cut out all meat, but rather have a smooth transition to a
low meat consumption diet. Understanding the right occasions, cooking habits and flavour preferences will continue to be
important in targeting flexitarian consumers.
3China and Japan are expected to remain the largest meat substitutes markets globally. These are expected to remain driven by
tofu- and soybean-based products. However, New Zealand companies looking to develop non-traditional meat substitutes
are recommended to focus on those markets that are seeing the growing presence of non-traditional products. Markets
such as the US, Canada, Western Europe, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia provide opportunities for the further penetration of
non-traditional meat substitute products.
4New Zealand manufacturers of meat producers and meat substitutes are encouraged to look further into upcoming
potential disruptors such as innovations in cultured meat, blended products and health-driven meat substitutes. These
are likely to play an important role in the future development of the meat substitutes category. As technology improves, it is
expected that brand manufacturers will tap into meat substitutes by providing unique solutions to growing concerns about ultra-
processed foods, animal welfare and climate change.
5Business considerations around target countries, marketing, price and product positioning are very important and can
determine the success of products introduced in meat substitutes. Aligning these business strategies to consumers’
frustrations (e.g. health concerns) will be key to successfully introducing a product to a particular market. Similarly, choosing the
right countries to introduce meat substitute product ranges will be another important factor to consider. Targeting fast-growing
meat substitutes markets is likely to facilitate rapid consumer awareness and exposure.
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general knowledge of, and expectations concerning, the industry. The industry market and sales positions, shares, market sizes and growth estimates included in
this information statement are based on estimates using the foregoing independent industry publications and estimates based on data from various industry
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but are inherently imprecise. Further, these estimates and assumptions involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on various factors,
including those discussed in the “Risk Factors” section of this information statement. These and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those
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