Kentucky Weather

Keeping Service in Weather

Your National Weather Service

John Gordon

Chief Meteorologist

Kentucky Weather

2013 KAMM Annual Conference

The Good, The Bad, and The

Ugly?


Office Area of Responsibility

County Warning Area:

► 2 states

► 59 counties (49 in central

Kentucky, 10 in south-

central Indiana)

► 2.79 million people (2010

Census)

► CWA includes state capital

(Frankfort) and 3 major

cities (Louisville, Lexington,

and Bowling Green)


NWS in KY


NWS OPERATIONS


WATCHES & WARNINGS

weather.gov/louisville

weather.gov/lexington

weather.gov/bowlinggreen


Point And Click Forecasts

• Point and click forecasts provide the highest detailed forecast.

• Available on our internet home page.

• Simply click on the map to get a forecast for that point

Available at: http://weather.gov/louisville

Keeping Service in Weather www.weather.gov/ndfd/

National Digital

Forecast Database

weather.gov/louisville


• The hourly

weather graph

allows you to

see the

forecasted

trend of several

meteorological

variables,

including

specific values

on the hour.



In the past 5 years:

• Feb 2008 “Super Tuesday” Tornado Outbreak

• Sep 2008: Hurricane Ike wind storm

• Jan 2009 Ice Storm

• Aug 4 2009 Louisville Flash Flood

• May 1-3 2010 southern KY Flood

• 2011: 72 Tornadoes

• Mar 2 2012 Tornadoes


Deadly Weather


Deadly Weather


Deadly Weather

$0.00

$20,000.00

$40,000.00

$60,000.00

$80,000.00

$100,000.00

$120,000.00

U.S. Weather Damages ($Millions)


The Summer of 2012

How would YOU describe it?

A.Torrid

B. Sultry

C. Drought

D. All of the Above


The Summer of 2012

HOT!!

But HOW hot was it?


21st Century Temperatures


The Summer of 2012


The Summer of 2012


The Summer of 2012

Dry

Summer!

Dry

Year!


Right now the earth is the hottest

it has been in the last 500,000

years.


There have been several periods

over the past half million years

when the average global

temperature was warmer than it is

today.


The #1 cause of Global Warming

is Burning of Fossil Fuels


The #1 contributor of global

warming is volcanoes.


We are 100% certain that climate

change is occurring.


The climate has always been

changing, and will continue to

change in the future. The

question is what drives those

changes, what the changes will

be, and how severe.


Who/What’s to Blame?

El Niño /

La Niña

(ENSO)?



Pollution?



?



Solar Activity?



Mankind?



Mankind?



Geothermal Activity?


And the Answer Is…

YES!

(All of the above…and then some)


Urban heat islands are merely

artifacts of official thermometers

usually being located at airports.


Cities tend to stay warmer than

rural locations because of the vast

amounts of concrete and other

building material that hold on to

daytime heat well into the night.


Urban Heat Islands


Urban Heat Islands


Weather = Climate

Weather • Always changing

• Cyclical/Periodic

• Many contributing

elements

– Some known

– Some unknown

• Mankind

Climate • Always changing

• Cyclical/Periodic

• Many contributing

elements

– Some known

– Some unknown

• Mankind


Weather ≠ Climate

Weather • Easily

Tracked/Measured

• Standard observations

of finite parameters

– (Temperature, Pressure,

Humidity, Precip., Wind,

Clouds)

– Short database

Climate

• Difficult to

Track/Measure

• Inconsistent

observations of various

parameters

– (CO2, SST, Sea Level,

Glacier area, etc.)

– Lengthy database


What does all this mean?

• Weather and Climate for a specific

location are both complicated

• DON’T oversimplify by forecasting

based on one indicator

• DO frequently monitor the latest short-

and long-term forecasts from the NWS

via weather.gov


Flooding is the #1 weather-related

killer in the U.S.


In an average year heat kills more

Americans than floods, lightning,

tornadoes, and hurricanes

combined.


It is ok to leave your infant or pet

in the car while you run a 5 minute

errand in the spring.


Never leave a child or pet in a

locked car!!!

Beat the Heat, Check the Backseat .


ITS GET’N HOT IN

HERE!

http://www.automotive.com/2005/12/chevrolet/venture/photos/interior.html


KY HEAT TRAGEDY

• July 21, 2005: Rockcastle County, KY, two-year old Sebastian McCown died when he accidentally locked himself inside of the car while his mother slept. The temperature was 94 degrees that day.

• October 1, 2004: Brandenburg, Ky. An 11-month-

old boy who was found dead in a car seat where

he was left for hours after his mother forgot about

him. The mother is identified as a nurse at the

Meade County Health Department.


Lightning is 5000° F.


Lightning is 50,000° F


Lightning Trivia

Average charge:30,000 amps

Average householdappliance: less than 10 amps

Average potential: 100,000,000 volts

Average electricaloutlet: 110 volts

Heats surroundingair to 50,000 deg F

Can strike up to 25 milesaway from the storm

Most thunder inaudible beyond 10 miles

Average Potential:

100,000,000 volts

Average Electrical

Outlet: 110 volts

Average Charge:

30,000 amps

Average Household

Appliance: less than

10 amps

Heats surrounding air to

50,000 degrees Fahrenheit

Can strike up to 25 miles

away from the storm

Most thunder is inaudible

beyond 10 miles


If caught outside during lightning,

lie flat on the ground to avoid

being the tallest object.


If you’re a six foot long target

standing up, you’ll be a six foot

long target lying down. Instead,

crouch into a ball.


Fact…or Fact? If it is not raining, then there is no danger

from lightning.

Fiction.

Lightning often strikes outside of heavy rain,

and may strike as far as 10 miles from a

thunderstorm!


Lightning Final Thoughts

• Lightning is the 1st thunderstorm hazard

to arrive and the last to leave

• Sep 1, 1979 - Lightning strikes a home in

Centerville, TN; completely destroying it;

it’s the 3rd time the house is hit since

being built 9 years earlier.

• When Thunder Roars, Move Indoors


Severe thunderstorms are not as

dangerous as tornadoes.


Severe thunderstorms produce

damaging winds, large hail, flash

flooding, and deadly lightning.

Severe thunderstorms should be

taken as seriously as tornadoes.


The low pressure inside a tornado

causes buildings to explode.

Open windows to equalize the

pressure.


Opening windows allows the

tornado’s winds into the building,

increasing the potential for

damage. If a tornado is

approaching, stay away from

windows!


Tornado Facts

• Each year, the U.S.

averages 1,000

tornadoes

• Can occur at any time

of day or year

• In southern Indiana

and Kentucky, the

peak season is April,

May and June

Hardin Co. Tornado Jan 2, 2006


Straight-line thunderstorm winds

can do as much damage as a

tornado.


Thunderstorms can produce

winds over 100 mph, even without

a tornado.


Seek shelter from a tornado in the

southwest corner of the

basement.


The safest place in a basement is

under a heavy table or beneath

the stairwell, regardless of which

corner of the basement it is in.


Safety Rules (LAMP)

• L – Get to the

LOWEST floor

• A – Stay AWAY from

windows

• M – Move to the

MIDDLE of the house

• P – PROTECT

yourself


Tornado sirens are meant to alert

people in their homes that severe

weather is approaching.


Tornado sirens are intended only

for people outside, not indoors!


It’s safe to drive through 6 inches

of flowing water as long as the

road is paved.


It is never safe to drive through

flowing water.


Historically, Kentucky’s heaviest

spring floods occurred when

heavy rain fell on snow pack.


Though heavy rain on snow does

sometimes lead to flooding, our

most widespread floods usually

come from prolonged periods of

heavy rain over a large area

during unusually warm winter

months.


Two kinds of Floods

• Flood

• Flash Flood

1997 Flood, River Road

Photo courtesy of The Courier-Journal

Murray Kentucky N 16th Street

July 17, 2001


What is a Flood?

• An inundation of water over an area.

• Much slower than in a Flash Flood


What is a Flash Flood?

• A sudden inundation of water over an area.

• Usually caused by slow-moving storms, storms

repeatedly moving over the same area, or heavy

rain from tropical cyclones.

• Enhancement of flash flood due to terrain.

• Most flood deaths are due to flash floods


One or two layers of thick clothing

will keep you warmer than several

layers of lightweight clothing.


Several layers of lightweight

clothing insulate more effectively.

Also, layers can be removed if

you begin to get too warm.


…The Warning Triad…

Collaboration with the

Media and EMA


Questions, Comments,

Suggestions?

Documents

Kentucky Weather