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CRISIS MANAGMENT

IN NATURAL

DISASTER

Prof. Dr. Mikdat KADIOĞLUAtmospheric Scientist and

Disaster Managements ExpertIstanbul Technical University

kadioglu@itu.edu.tr

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Outline

• Introduction

• Mitigation

• Preparedness

• Response

• Recovery

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Disaster

Emergency

Incident

Response Levels:

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

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INCIDENT:

A Definition

An Incident is anything out of the ordinary day-to-day activities that necessitates a response.

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EMERGENCY:A Definition

A dangerous event that can normally

be managedat the local level

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HAZARD:A Definition

A dangerous event or circumstance

that has the potential

to lead to an emergency or disaster

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Natural hazards Civil or political hazards

Technological hazards

TYPES OF HAZARDS

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DISASTER:A Definition

• A dangerous event that causes significant human and economic loss and demands a crisis response beyond the scope of any single agency or service such as the fire or police department.

• Disasters are distinguished from emergencies by the greater level of response required.

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GOALS

OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Save lives

Prevent injuries

Protect property and

environment

Business Continuity

…

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Disaster Management System

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34http://www.tuscoema.org/cycle.html

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Policy shift in Turkey

Before 1999

• Fate

• Reactive

• Recovery

• Wait and see

• Ex-post

• Crisis management

• Ad-hoc efforts

• Development at risk

After 1999

• Choice

• Proactive

• Mitigation

• Anticipate and prevent

• Ex-ante

• Risk management

• Comprehensive approach

• Sustainable development

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Disaster Management Process

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

1

2

3

4

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1.

• MITIGATION

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

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Mitigation is any

action taken to

reduce the loss

of life or damage

to property from

Natural Hazards

or Security

Events

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Extreme

Weather

Events

Society(Increased

Population,

Wealth,

Vulnerability)

Disasters/Risk

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Extreme

Weather

Events

Society

Less Disasters/Risk

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Hazard Analysis

Buildings:

• Structural hazards:

– Large glass panels

– Broad unsupported roof spans

• Nonstructural hazards:

– Chemical storage

– Storage of classroom materials

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Structural Hazards

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Structural Hazards

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Structural Hazards

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Nonstructural Hazards

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Nonstructural Hazards

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Nonstructural Hazards

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Classroom Hazard Hunt

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Classroom Hazard Hunt

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Hazard Analysis

Neighborhood hazards:

Elements in the immediate area of e.g. a

school building that pose a potential hazard.

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Neighborhood Hazards

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Hazard Analysis

Community hazards:

• Weather-related hazards

• Potential hazards:

– At commercial/industrial facilities

– Along transportation corridors

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Determining the Situation

• Hazards addressed

• Probability of impact

• Areas of the building most likely to be

affected

• Locations of special populations

• Critical resource needs

• Maps supporting the situation

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Seismic Microzonation Studies in Istanbul

The Study on a Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul including Seismic

Microzonation, Mar.2001-Jan.2003, (IMM)

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Project Studies

Microzonation work including geological and geophysical investigations is projected with

the assistance of Japanese JICA organization and almost completed after two years.

Main Outcomes of the Project:

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Severe quantitative damage estimations have been obtained from IMM-JICA Micro zoning and

Mitigation Study (2000-2002).

Main Outcomes of the Project:

33Ground Classification Map

Main Outcomes of the Project:

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Components for Risk Management

(social factors)(events)

•Climatology

•Probabilities

•Forecasts

•...

•Population growth and shifts

Urbanization

•Technology

•Land use practices

•Environment degradation

•Water use trends

•Government policies

•Environmental awareness

•...

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Risk Analysis Process

1. Identify hazards.

2. Profile each hazard.

3. Develop a jurisdiction profile.

4. Determine vulnerability.

5. Create and apply scenarios.

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Step 1. Identify Hazards

Use:

Historical data

Existing hazard analysis

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Step 2. Profile Each Hazard

Profiles should address:

Frequency of occurrence.

Magnitude and potential intensity.

Location.

Probable spatial extent.

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Step 2 (Continued)

Profiles should address:

Duration.

Seasonal pattern.

Speed of onset.

Availability of warnings.

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Step 3. Develop a Jurisdiction

Profile

Sector Profiles

Hazard-specific

information

Determination of

Vulnerabilities

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Step 4. Determine Vulnerability

Quantify the jurisdiction’s risk to focus the EOP

on the hazards that present the highest risk.

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Quantifying Risk

Quantifying risk involves:

Identifying elements of the jurisdiction at risk

Developing response priorities

Assigning severity ratings

Compiling data into risk profiles

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Response Priorities

Priority 1: Essential Facilities Priority 2: Life Safety

Priority 3: Infrastructure Lifelines

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Severity Ratings

SEVERITY LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS

Catastrophic Multiple deaths. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. More than 50 percent of property severely damaged.

Critical Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged.

Limited Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. More than 10 percent of property severely damaged.

Negligible Injuries and/or illnesses treatable with first aid. Minor quality of life lost. Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged.

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Risk Index

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Risk Index (Continued)

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Creating Scenarios

A hazard scenario tracks the development of a specific

type of emergency, including:

Initial warning.

Overall impact on the jurisdiction.

Impact on specific sectors.

Consequences (damage, casualties, loss of services, etc.).

Needed actions and resources.

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Earthquake scenarios for Istanbul

Model A Model B

Model C Model D

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EARTHQUAKE

MASTER PLAN

FOR İSTANBUL

Prepared by

Bosphorous University

İstanbul Technical University

Middle East Technical University

Yıldız Technical University

for

İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality

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2.

•PREPAREDNESS

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

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Issues to Consider• Communicating with

media

• Communicating with

employees' families

• Communicating with

vendors, customers, other

third-parties and the

public

• Safeguarding passengers

• Safeguarding personnel

• Providing first aid

• Safeguarding critical records, documents, equipment, inventory and other physical assets

• Preserving telephone and radio records and voicemail

• Maintaining safety equipment, such as fire extinguishers, smoke detectors and sprinklers

• Coordinating repairs with insurance carriers and state/local governments

• Obtaining temporary use of alternative equipment

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The Key to Security and

Emergency Preparedness is

Advance Planning

• Reduces confusion

• Improves decision-making

• Saves lives and property

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Developing a Security and

Emergency Preparedness Plan

• Planning

• Documentation

• Assessment

• Drills and Exercises

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“The Plan is nothing,

planning is everything”

FACTORS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE RESPONSE

• Emerging Role of Private Sector

• Temporary EOCs

• Satellite and electronic communications

• Specialized engineering and environmental safety services

• …

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Action Items

• Develop plans and policies

• Develop procedures

• Enhance coordination

• Train, train, train…

• …

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Planning Steps

Step 1: Identify key players.

Step 2: Develop assumptions.

Step 3: Identify resource requirements.

Step 4: Establish chain of command and

lines of succession.

Step 5: Develop the basic plan.

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A Basic Plan

Details emergency response policies.

Describes the response organization.

Describes the relationships between the local

response organization and other response

organizations.

Assigns responsibilities.

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Annex Topics

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Incident Command System

• Method for managing emergencies

• Used by:

– Community response agencies

– Emergency medical services

– Emergency management personnel

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ICS

Five Management Functions

Operations Logistics

Planning Finance /

Administration

Command

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ICS

Functional Responsibilities

COMMAND = Overall responsibility

OPERATIONS = Carry out the plan

PLANNING = Thinking, what’s going to be

needed in hours/days to come

LOGISTICS = Provide support

FINANCE / ADMINISTRATION= Tracking cost and

procurement

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Incident Command System

Organization

IC STAFF

INFORMATION OFFICER

SAFETY OFFICER

LIAISON OFFICER

OPERATIONS

SECTION

PLANNING

SECTION

LOGISTICS

SECTION

FINANCE /

ADMIN.

SECTION

INCIDENT COMMANDER

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ICS Organization

Incident Commander

Operations

Safety Officer

Liaison Officer

Public Information

Officer

Planning Logistics Finance/Admin

Situation

Analysis

DocumentationSecurity

Search & Rescue

Student Care

Timekeeping

Staffing

Communications

Supplies

Purchasing

Medical

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CERT ICS Organization

FIRE DEPARTMENT LIAISON

CERT

TEAM LEADERDOCUMENTATION

SITUATION STATUS

SEARCH

& RESCUE

SEARCH

RESCUE

EVACUATION

FIRE

SUPPRESSION

EXTINGUISHERS

STANDPIPES

UTILITIES

HAZ-MAT

MEDICAL

TRIAGE

TREATMENT

TRANSPORT

MORGUE

SUPPLY

LOGISTICS

COMMUNICATIONS

STAFFING

EQUIPMENT

SUPPLIES

FOOD

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S

B

C

H

H-3

Emergency Operation Center (EOC)/ Incident Command Post (ICP)

Staging Areas

Base

Camp

Helibase

Helispot

Disaster Management Facilities

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EOC vs. Incident Command Post

• EOC:

– Pre-defined location

– Prepared in advance

with necessary

equipment,

communications

capabilities, and

resources

• ICP:

– Identified by first

responder at time of

event

– More “portable”, i.e.,

car, engine, a room

adjacent to scene

– Designated by the

name of the incidentq31

Every agency should have an identified EOC as a part of its emergency

plan; the ICP is determined as the event unfolds.

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Education is key in mitigation

and preparedness...

• “…although knowledge does not

guarantee power over natural catastrophe,

it is a prime requisite of disaster

prevention.” (Alexander 2000, 249)

• “Human history becomes more and more

a race between education and

catastrophe.” (H.G. Wells)

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Istanbul Technical UniversityCenter of Excellence for Disaster Management

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Recognized Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk Perception Gap

Actual Risk

Big Gap

Need for GeneratingRealistic Disaster Scenario

Information is Vital!

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Where are they looking?

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Reducing Risk Perception Gap

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Why Exercise?

• To reveal planning weaknesses.

• To reveal resource needs.

• To improve coordination.

• To clarify roles and responsibilities.

• To improve individual performance.

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Exercise Requirements

• Exercise Control Staff

• Exercise Location

• Exercise Communication

• Exercise Development

• Exercise Evaluation

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Developing Exercises

1. Assess needs.

2. Define the exercise scope.

3. Develop a purpose statement.

4. Develop the exercise objectives.

5. Develop the exercise scenario.

6. Develop major events.

7. Identify expected actions.

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Types of Exercises

• Orientations

• Drills

• Tabletop Exercises

• Functional Exercises

• Full-Scale Exercises

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Types of Exercises

Orientation Seminars:

• Introduce new programs, policies, or

plans.

• Review roles and responsibilities.

• Serve as a starting point for most other

exercises.

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Types of Exercises

Drills:

• Practice and perfect a single emergency

response.

• Concentrate the efforts of a single

function.

• Provide field experience.

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Earthquake

Plane accident

Bomb explosion

Bomb threat

Lightning

Tornado

Landslides

Drop-Cover-Hold

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Drills

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Drills

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Drills

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Shelter-In-Place

Smog Alert

Chemical

Spills

Nuclear

Accidents

Hazmat

accidents

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Fire

Earthquake

Explosion

Flood

Chemical

Spread

Terror

Landslides

Evacuation

33 sn

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Drills

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Gun shoot

Suspicious

Persons

Snappers

Lock-down

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Types of Exercises

Tabletop Exercises:

• Lend themselves to low-stress discussion

of plans, policies, and procedures.

• Provide an opportunity to resolve

questions of coordination and

responsibility.

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Types of Exercises

Functional exercises:

• Simulate a real emergency under high-

stress conditions.

• Test coordination among various functions

and outside response agencies.

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Types of Exercises

Full-scale exercises:

• Test a community’s total response

capability.

• Are as close to reality as possible, using

real equipment and agency personnel.

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3.

•RESPONSEMitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

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Response

• The Plan

– No matter the situation,

response can be divided into

consistent tasks & functions

– Must be user friendly

– Must be team built

– All personnel informed of

their roles in advance

(including passengers, guest,

visitor, etc. )

– PLAN MUST BE

EXERCISED!!!

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Transit Community

Support Functions

– Evacuation (transportation and identification)

– Specialized transportation for mobility-impaired citizens away from scene

– Transportation and shelter for emergency response response personnel

– Transportation of supplies

– Support of road blocks and perimeter control

– Weather monitoring and route planning

– Specialized equipment

– Trained personnel

– Communications

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Basic Emergency Services

I. Fire-Fighting & Ambulance

II. Police

III. Military

IV. Civil Defence

V. NGO’s

VI. ..

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Basic Emergency Services

I. Fire-Fighting & Ambulance

Dial 112 Municipal (City, Town, Village) Fire

Station

Voluntary Firefighters at Community Level

Weak Coordination at Prefecture Level

Overall Fire Defence Administration Policy by Fire

Defence Agency, Ministry of Public Management,

Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications at

National Level

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Basic Emergency Services

II. Police

• Major Police Station in Cities

• Strong Coordination by the National Police

Agency

Dial 155 Police

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Response to Changing Situations and

Demands at the Affected Sites

Quake

30 minutes

Emergency calls to the officials in charge

of disaster response who rushed to the

Crisis Management Centre within Prime

Minister’s Office

Setting-up an emergency coordination

team consisting of senior government

officials, headed by the Minister of State for

Disaster Management

Immediate information analysis

Press Briefing soonest

after the quake

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24 hours

Dispatch of an emergency survey team to

the affected areas

Mobilization of Search and Rescue Teams

Police , Firefighting, Self-Defense Forces

Full-scale search & rescue activities

Nationwide emergency assistance

Emergency medical evacuation

Food & Water

Blankets & Clothes

Prevention of secondary disasters such as landslides

Temporary repairs of infrastructure & lifeline

3 hours

Emergency Response

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4.

•RECOVERYMitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

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• Recovery will not happen quickly.

• Recovery involves:

– Medical issues.

– Psychological issues.

– Infrastructure issues.

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1 months &

thereafter

Improving of the quality of life of evacuees

Hot meals with variety

Public bath service

Mental care against PTSD

Evacuation of elderly & handicapped to tourist hotels

Full-scale recovery of infrastructure &

lifeline

1-3 weeks

From Response to

Recovery & Rehabilitation Phase

Smooth transition to recovery &

rehabilitation phase

Ensuring of housing

Preparations for the coming winter & snow

Recovery of the local economy

Support to isolated and devastated areas

Aftershocks

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‘’ZPP’’ Zeytinburnu Pilot Project

THE HIGHEST VULNERABLE NEIGHBOURHOODS ARE FOUND

IN ZEYTINBURNU

According to the microzoning Study which is done by JICA there are 54

highest vulnerable neighbourhood in Istanbul and 6 of these are found in

Zeytinburnu district.

Some estimations for model Care:

Current Population :239.927

Building number : 15.573

Death number : 5.455

Heavily Injured : 7.455

Quantity of Debris :7.229.000 tons

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WHY IS THIS DISTRICT SELECTED?

• The high potential for

transformation (redevelopment).

• The variety of the building stock.

‘’ZPP’’ Zeytinburnu Pilot Project

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TRANSFORMATION OF ZEYTINBURNUexisting stock (%90 unauthorized; %90 ground coverage)

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A RENEWAL ALTERNATIVEwith %15 increase in floor space

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For more information(2001 - İTÜ Press)

www.aym.itu.edu.tr

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Thanks for your kind attention!..