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Capacitating Agricultural Smallholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development (CASCAID-II)
__________________________
East Africa partners meeting Getfam Hotel, Addis Ababa
28-30 October 2019 __________________________
Proceedings
The CASCAID-II project (full title: ‘Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development’) is a 3-year project funded by the CCAFS (Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security) CGIAR research program to reduce agricultural investment risk from smallholder farm to whole value chains to improve agricultural productivity and food security together with the profitability of agricultural enterprises, in a context of increasing smallholder integration in urban-driven markets. Bilateral projects contributing to CASCAID include: NADiRA (full title: ‘Nurturing Africa’s Digital Revolution for Agriculture’), a 30-month innovation action to industrialize the incorporation of Copernicus, other Earth Observation products and in-situ sensors inside agCelerant™. NADiRA receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 776309. ‘Building Livelihoods and Resilience to Climate Change in East and West Africa: Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) for large-scale implementation of Climate-Smart Agriculture’, a 3-year project funded by the European Commission and IFAD under grant agreement no. DCI-FOOD/2015/360-968.
Authors of this report and contact details:
Name: Pierre C. Sibiry Traore Partner acronym: ICRISAT Address: International Crops Research Institute on the Semi-Arid Tropics,
c/o agCelerant-Senegal, a Manobi Africa group company, P.O. Box 25026, Dakar-Fann, Sénégal
Email: [email protected] / [email protected] Name: Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye Partner acronym: CIMMYT Address: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, c/o ILRI,
CMC Road, Gurd Sholla, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Email: [email protected] Name: Esayas Lemma Hayi Partner acronym: MoA Address: Crop Development Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Gurd
Sholla, P.O. Box 62347, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Email: [email protected] Name: Mamo Girma Diga Partner acronym: EIAR Address: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Gurd Sholla, P.O. Box
2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Email: [email protected]
If you want to cite a report that was meant for use within the CASCAID-II project only, please make sure you are allowed to disseminate or cite this report. If so, please cite as follows:
Traore, P.C.S., Tesfaye, K., Esayas Lemma, H., Mamo Girma, D. 2019. Proceedings of the East Africa Partners Meeting, Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development project, 28-30 October 2019, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Internal project report. 22 p + annexures.
Disclaimer: this work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations.
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Table of Contents
1. SHORT SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................4
2. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................4
1) CASCAID-II SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 4 2) CASCAID-I BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................. 4 3) CASCAID-II DELIVERABLES (2019) .................................................................................................................. 5 4) MEETING OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................................... 6 5) EXPECTED MEETING OUTCOMES ....................................................................................................................... 6
3. METHODS ...............................................................................................................................................7
1) CASCAID-II BUILDING BLOCKS ........................................................................................................................ 7 2) MEETING AGENDA ......................................................................................................................................... 9 3) MEETING PARTICIPANTS ............................................................................................................................... 10 4) TOOLS ....................................................................................................................................................... 11
4. RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................ 12
1) TWO WORK STREAMS ................................................................................................................................... 12 2) SUBNATIONAL YIELD FORECASTING (WORKSTREAM #1) ....................................................................................... 13 3) SMALLHOLDER VALUE CHAINS (WORKSTREAM #2) ............................................................................................. 14 4) ACTIVITIES, MILESTONES, RESPONSIBILITIES ....................................................................................................... 17
5. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 18
SLIDE DECKS AND NOTES ............................................................................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
1) CAPACITATING AFRICAN STAKEHOLDERS WITH CLIMATE ADVISORIES AND INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT – MEETING
OBJECTIVES AND EXPECTATIONS (K. TESFAYE – 8 SLIDES) .............................................................................................. 19 2) CAPACITATING AFRICAN STAKEHOLDERS WITH CLIMATE ADVISORIES AND INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT – AN INTRODUCTION
(P.C.S. TRAORÉ – 10 SLIDES) ................................................................................................................................. 23 3) AGROMETEOROLOGY RESEARCH IN ETHIOPIA: EIAR’S EXPERIENCES (D. TIBEBE, J. SEID, K. TESFAYE – 34 SLIDES) .......... 29 4) CLIMATE AND MARKET INFORMATION DELIVERY TOOL: THE CASE OF ‘YEZARE INFORMATION SYSTEM’ (S. MESSAY, N. BAYU – 21 SLIDES) ................................................................................................................................................ 46 5) CROP YIELD ESTIMATION IN ETHIOPIA (E. LEMMA – 8 SLIDES) .............................................................................. 57 6) OVERVIEW OF PICSA – PARTICIPATORY INTEGRATED CLIMATE SERVICES FOR AGRICULTURE (D. STERN – 31 SLIDES) ..... 61 7) LEARNINGS FROM CASCAID PHASE 1 (P.C.S. TRAORE – 5 SLIDES) ....................................................................... 79 8) MANAGING CLIMATE RISK (A.M. WHITBREAD, K.P.C. RAO AND TEAM – 23 SLIDES) ................................................ 82 9) “SPATIAL” YIELD FORECASTING WITH CRAFT – THE CCAFS REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL FORECASTING TOOLBOX (G. HOOGENBOOM, V. SHELIA – 37 SLIDES) ................................................................................................................... 94 10) NYALA INSURANCE’S AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE EXPERIENCE (S. ZEGEYE – 21 SLIDES) .......................................... 114
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1. SHORT SUMMARY CASCAID-II aims to reduce agricultural investment risk from smallholder farm to whole value chains to improve agricultural productivity and food security together with the profitability of agricultural enterprises, in a context of increasing smallholder integration in urban-driven markets. The 2019 East Africa partners meeting was organized to develop a common understanding and agreement on the project goals and approach to de-risking smallholder value chains in East Africa, and to discuss an operational set of priority research questions addressable within that approach. This document describes the priority value chain and R&D activities identified during the meeting and the articulation of sustainable intensification and risk management goals inside a single, actionable theory of change.
2. INTRODUCTION
1) CASCAID-II summary
‘Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development’ (CASCAID-
II) aims to reduce agricultural investment risk from smallholder farm to whole value chains to improve
agricultural productivity and food security together with the profitability of agricultural enterprises,
in a context of increasing smallholder integration in urban-driven markets. It builds upon experience
acquired during the first phase of the CASCAID project, by rooting the development of climate
advisories and agricultural insurance in a value chain approach, hence the expanded focus on actors
along the value chain (‘next users’) in addition to smallholders (‘end users’).
Specifically, CASCAID-II will work to (i) improve service relevance through embeddedness in phygital
data infrastructures that continuously improve stakeholder performance through user feedback
loops; (ii) target climate services and CSA options more efficiently through advanced socio-economic
and agro-ecological segmentation; and (iii) enhance stakeholder preparedness and decision making
through real-time, multi-scale yield forecasting. Promotion of youth entrepreneurship will constitute
a key tenet of these infrastructures. Other elements of gender inclusion will be value-chain specific
and focus on strengthening gender collaboration across the production and post-harvest stages, and
along the harvest quantity-quality continuum. CASCAID-II will link with regional institutions and
industrial stakeholders that have agency to transform production systems through policy and
investment, and will sharpen focus on the ‘science of delivery’ by implementing operational data
infrastructures that excite and grow, wherever appropriate, latent demand for agricultural risk control
and transfer solutions. ICRISAT will provide overall project leadership.
2) CASCAID-I background
Phase I of CASCAID calibrated the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) for maize
cropping systems of Southern Mali, in CRAFT’s first-time implementation in Africa. In Ghana, previous
work by the University of Ghana has led to the calibration of three soybean varieties. Also, sorghum
varieties were calibrated during the AgMIP projects. CASCAID-II will consequently expand CRAFT
implementation in Ghana and Ethiopia with crop focus on sorghum/soybean and
sorghum/wheat/barley respectively. This new phase of the project will emphasize on value chain
integration with the aim of creating business opportunities for farmers while mitigating climate
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related risks in their agricultural activities through a better accessibility of agricultural insurance. In
this note, a collaboration with a PhD student is ongoing. The student’s research prioritizes on
sustainable intensification and risk management strategies of smallholder agriculture through
decision support tools, for instance Integrated Assessment Management models. This would feed into
CASCAID’s research targets on climate services and on Early Warning Systems (EWS).
The successful execution of the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) in
Northern Ghana (2015-2016) had been valuable for farmers’ decision-making. The majority of famers
surprisingly selected soybean (in a 2016 survey) as a potential substitute for maize to improve their
resilience against irregular climatic patterns. Bearing in mind that Ghana is not able to meet its
national demand of soybean (150 k metric tons), it may well be that PICSA uncovered that this
willingness to shift is market-driven and may not be ‘climate-smart’. PICSA having demonstrated
significant capacity to and that PICSA represents a huge potential for market integration, CASCAID-II
plans to continue PICSA activities in Northern Ghana while embedding value chain in the process, and
consequently create business opportunities for farmers. This is likely to target both soybean and
sorghum commodities.
The growth of agricultural insurance coverage in Senegal and Ghana is still rudimentary. Many farmers still suffer from climate hazards. A generic composite index was parameterized for insuring smallholder maize in Nioro-du-Rip (Senegal) based on measured total seasonal rainfall and actual yields. Combining learnings from a USAID/AgMIP modelling project in Nioro with management data from agCelerant’s anonymized farmers registry, new insurance products are proposed for development and validation by CNAAS (Senegal) during the second phase of CASCAID. With Consequently, coupled with the Agcelerant platform, farmers will easily have access agricultural insurance to secure their activities from interannual and within season weather variability.
3) CASCAID-II deliverables (2019)
Below are the deliverables that were initially declared in November 2018 at the time of CASCAID-II
workplans submission into MARLO, the CGIAR Managing Agricultural Research for Learning and
Outcomes M&E system. The relevance of these deliverables and their execution timeline may need to
be revised in the light of the outcomes from the partners meeting:
D9641 - Selected priority value chains and CIS+CSA bundles - East Africa
D9648 - Scaling domains characterized - East Africa
D9653 - PICSA process initiated in target value chains / geographies
D9654 - Best predictor sets for SI/S2S forecasts identified for target value chains / geographies
D9655 - Key tactical decisions in promising CIS-CSA bundles unpacked for advisory development
D9657 - Digital value chains deployed in target areas
D9658 - CRAFT and/or CAM calibrated for target commodities / geographies
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4) Meeting objectives
Develop a common understanding and agreement on the CASCAID-II goals and approach to de-
risking smallholder value chains in West Africa
Discuss and agree on an operational set of priority research questions addressable within that
approach
Map the sequence of activities to deploy in 2019-2020, with respect to (i) stakeholder
engagement, (ii) phygital value chains, and (iii) analytics and forecasts with respect to expected
deliverables
Understand how the CASCAID-II tools (agCelerant, CRAFT, ENACTS, iSAT, PICSA) leverage each
other and how to best articulate their contributions
Identify opportunities from leveraging with selected bilateral projects, including ZALF, SIIL,
ACToday, NADiRA
Detail activity workplans for 2019-2020 (milestones, responsibilities, timelines)
5) Expected meeting outcomes
CASCAID-II partners have a shared understanding of why and how research on climate risk
management must be embedded in a value chain approach
At least one roadmap for implementation in one priority rainfed value chain (for Ethiopia) is ready,
informing the execution of R&D activities and interactions with partners
Sustainable intensification and risk management goals are articulated in a single, actionable
theory of change for CASCAID-II
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3. METHODS
1) CASCAID-II building blocks
Figure 1 proposes a schematic of CASCAID-II’s research and development clusters (stakeholders’
engagement, analytics and forecasts, phygital value chains) and stakeholders. Also represented are
expected outcomes and products from CASCAID-II (red color) and from the related EU-IFAD project
on ‘Building livelihoods and resilience to climate change in East & West Africa: AR4D for large-scale
implementation of Climate-Smart Agriculture’ (purple color).
Figure 1: static diagram representing CASCAID-II’s R&D clusters, stakeholders, and (in red color) expected
outcomes and products. Also mentioned (in purple color) are the expected outcomes and products from
the related EU-IFAD project1.
1 Additional details available in the CASCAID introductory slide deck in annexure.
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Table 1 outlines the proposed complementarities between different R&D instruments available in the
CASCAID-II toolbox, depicting the nature and process of value addition from source (line) to target
(column).
Adds value to >>
agCelerant CRAFT ENACTS iSAT PICSA
agCelerant
By providing reference
management and yield data
By grounding maprooms in a
value chain approach
By providing a value chain level outlet for tactical
advisories
By deepening on-farm data
capture and stakeholder
feedback loops
CRAFT
By increasing lead time in crop production forecasting
By enriching maprooms with
agronomic context
By benchmarking local advisories
against seasonal forecasts
By providing early warning messages to
stakeholders and communities
ENACTS
By providing gridded, legacy
data as backup / calibration source
By providing gridded data to
feed crop models
By providing gridded, legacy
data as backup / calibration source
By providing reference charts
and historical analyses
iSAT
By developing tactical advisory content for farm decision making
By benchmarking crop responses based on local
management data
By enriching maprooms with
agronomic expertise
By providing decision-making
content for group discussions
PICSA
By contextualizing data collection
during focus group discussions
By capturing the variability in
farming contexts and preferences
By relating historical climate
to agricultural outcomes
By informing about farmer
tactics, the why, when and how
Table 1: value addition to be demonstrated between CASCAID-II tools
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2) Meeting agenda
This provisional agenda started with an overview of CASCAID-II goals, deliverables and activities and
presentations that set the stage for climate services in Ethiopia (day 1). In day 2, we focused on
insurance and tools followed by breakout and plenary sessions on research questions and protocols.
Finally, we planned for work and organize milestones, timelines and logistics into a country roadmap
for Ethiopia. Proposed presenters were required to prepare short presentations (slide decks) covering
achievements and key challenges.
0830-1030 1100-1230 1330-1500 1530-1700
DA
Y 1
Introduction 0830-0900: Registration 0900-0915: Words of welcome, introductions 0915-0930: Objectives and expectations of the meeting (Kindie) 0930-1000: CASCAID-II, an introduction (Sibiry) 1000-1030: Q&As
BR
EAK
+ G
RO
UP
PIC
TUR
E
Climate Services 1 1100-1130: Overview of climate services in Ethiopia (Kinfe H.) 1130-1200: Overview of agro-climatic research in Ethiopia (Girma & Kindie) 1200-1230: Discussion
LUN
CH
Climate services 2 1330-1400: Agro-climate services platform (Jemal) 1400-1420: PICSA (Roger) 1420-1450: Experience from CASAID-I (Sibiry) 1450-1500: Q&A
BR
EAK
Climate services 3 1530-1600: Climate and market information delivery tool (Daniel) 1600-1620: Need for crop forecasts at the MoA (Esayas) 1620-1650 Yield forecasting with CRAFT (Gerrit) 1650 – 1700: Discussion
DA
Y 2
Projects 0900-0930: Agricultural insurance and the role of the private sector (TBD) 0930-1000: Basket of tools for CASCAID-II (Sibiry) 1010-1030: Q&As
BR
EAK
Research questions & protocols (breakouts 1) 60mn breakouts + 30mn report back
LUN
CH
Research questions & protocols (breakouts 2) 60m breakouts + 30mn report back (tools for fine scale and tools for coarse scale) B
REA
K
Research questions & protocols (general discussion) Sustainable Intensification goals: phygital SHF value chains showcased by 2020, established by 2021 Risk Management goals: new gridded early warning tools calibrated by
DA
Y 3
Logistics - Inventory of software - Data requirements review and procurement plans
BR
EAK
Work planning Plans for 2019-2020 - others - Address D9644, D9649, D9653, D9654, D9655, D9657, D9658
LUN
CH
Work plan review 2019-2020 roadmap 2019-2020 milestones
BR
EAK
Open for side & follow-up meetings
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3) Meeting participants
Participants names Initials Role Institution
Mr. Kinfe Hailemariam KH Deputy DG National Meteorological Agency
Dr. Teferi Demisie TD Scientist CCAFS
Dr. Dawit Solomon DSO EA Regional Program Leader CCAFS
Dr. Girma Mamo GM Climate and Geospatial Directorate EIAR
Mr. Jemal Seid JS Senior Researcher EIAR, Addis Ababa
Mr. Esayas Lemma EL Crop Development Director MoA, Addis Ababa
Ms. Yenenesh Egu YE Extension Director MoA, Addis Ababa
Mr. Eshetu Zewdu EZ Researcher Melkassa ARC
Mr. Olika Dessalegn OD Researcher Melkassa ARC
Mr. Daniel Fikreyesus DF Manager Echnoserve
Dr. Sibiry Traore PST Project Leader ICRISAT
Dr. Anthony Whitbread AMW Research Program Director, ISD ICRISAT
Dr. Tilahun Amede TA Country representative ICRISAT
Dr. Kindie Tesfaye KFT Project Coordinator, EA CIMMYT
Mr. Fite Getaneh FG Research Associate CIMMYT
Dr. Walter Pumulanga WP Scientist CIMMYT
Dr. Lulseged Tamene LT Country representative CIAT
Pr. Gerrit Hoogenboom GH CRAFT U. Florida
Dr. David Stern DS PICSA U. Reading
Dr. Steve Zebiak SZE FP4 Leader CCAFS IRI / U. Columbia
Representative Input supply and marketing director MoA
Abrham Endreas AE CEO Green Solutions
Representative
Ethiopian Millers Association
Mr. Tinsay Zerfu TZ
Hitosa PLC.
Rupak Manvatkar RM Team Lead, Climate Solutions WFP
Mr. Solomon Zegeye SZ Manager Nyala Insurance S.C.
Representative
National Insurance Company
Melkachez Temesegn MT Manager Oromia Insurance S.C.
Dr. Ashine Bogale AB
Oromia Seed Enterprise
Representative
Ethiopian Seed Enterprise
Dr. Vakhtang Shelia VS CRAFT U. Florida
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4) Tools
Tool description Past use in CASCAID-I Intended use in
CASCAID-II
agCelerant is an advanced value chain orchestration and business development ecosystem connecting smallholders with credit, insurance, input and output markets and accompanying all value chain stakeholders with (i) agricultural investment risk mapping, to reduce lenders cash-out and increase availability of credit to smallholders, (ii) more robust, affordable insurance contracts to reduce persistent climate risk in intensifying crop-livestock systems and (iii) improved management of crop nutrient deficiencies to increase fertilizer use efficiency and agricultural productivity.
Registration of 1,030 sorghum, soybean
farms in Ghana; 1,000 maize, 2,000
peanut farms in Senegal. Baseline socio-economic, agronomic data
analyzed
Referencing and monitoring of value chain activity from field to factory in
support of inclusive agricultural contracts
CRAFT, the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox is a software platform that provides one-stop access to gridded crop modelling and yield forecasting along with risk analysis and climate impact studies at spatial resolutions of 5 and 30 arcminutes. CRAFT can be used to generate multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations using a crop engine that can run the crop simulation models DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, in concert with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) for probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts.
Evaluated for simulating the spatial
distribution of historical maize yields in Mali,
estimate water limited maize yield
Proposed application to
Ghana and Ethiopia to support food
security projections and explore agro-
industry uses
ENACTS, the Enhancing National Climate Services initiative is led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and is a unique, multi-faceted initiative designed to bring climate knowledge into national decision making by improving availability, access to, and use of climate information. The goal of ENACTS is to provide reliable and readily accessible climate data at high resolution to decision makers across Africa. ENACTS delivers robust climate data, targeted information products and training that’s relevant to user needs, enabling them to apply climate information to decision making with confidence.
Implemented in Ghana, Mali and Senegal. Mali on
standby for shortage of HR. Ghana most
active
Proposed refinement of products and
maprooms for target value chains in Ethiopia, Ghana
iSAT, the Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool, developed by a collaboration of Microsoft, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), and ICRISAT, provides concise farm advisories to farmers on their phones. These messages are generated following analysis of local and global historical climate data, current and forecasted weather conditions, crop systems and soil-related information. The tool employs a decision-tree approach to generate SMSes, which are then relayed to farmers registered for the service. By influencing planting decisions, the tool helped farmers increase yield.
n/a (implemented in India under third
party project)
Proposed adaptation for
implementation with peanut
growers in Senegal; potential
adaptation for Ghana and Ethiopia considered as well
PICSA, the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) is a participatory agricultural extension approach, developed by researchers at the University of Reading. PICSA aims to support smallholder farmers to make informed decisions, under variable and changing climatic conditions. It does this through combining: i) accurate, locally specific climate and weather information, ii) locally relevant crop, livestock and livelihood options, and iii) participatory decision-making tools.
Implemented in Ghana (6,000+
farmers), and to a lesser extent in
Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger
Reference approach for participatory
elicitation of resource
workflows, farm budgets, climate
analytics
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4. RESULTS Building on the results of consultations held in West Africa, it was proposed that trying to frame CASCAID’s interventions in Ethiopia as research questions was rather inward looking. Rather, participants proposed to put focus on getting CASCAID tools implemented to assess uptake, impact and utility. For each tool, the objective should rather be to identify where the highest delivery potential lies in the short term. Indeed, valid outcomes from a CCAFS perspective could include policy decisions if they also include smallholder farmer capacitation. Also, emphasis was put on the need to explore how different approaches leverage each other rather than perpetuate silo work, and to identify how to optimally package research investments.
1) Two work streams
Two complementary work streams were developed focusing respectively on sub-national yield forecasting and on the development of market-driven climate advisories. These two themes reflect (i) overt, pre-existing interest manifested by the Ministry of Agriculture of Ethiopia for the country-scale implementation of the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Tool (CRAFT) and (ii) the need to more aggressively embed the development of advisories into a whole value chain, demand-driven approach. Participants considered putative late 2021 headlines from the Ethiopian press as intermediate target outcomes and identified the milestones to achieve for these outcomes to materialize, as follows:
Workstream #1 late 2021 Ethiopian press headline: “Ethiopia adopts CRAFT for subnational yield forecasting”
yield known earlier, across space
improved early planning
aggregate risk better controlled
central procurement optimized
food security improved
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Workstream #2 late 2021 Ethiopian press headline: “Smallholder value chains drive the development of climate advisories”
Both workstreams are intended to exploit project advances in the identification of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictors for spatial yield prediction (through CRAFT) and for local advisory generation (e.g. through EDACaP, iSAT).
2) Subnational yield forecasting (workstream #1)
In workstream #1, the initial aim is to capacitate the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and affiliated entities, such as the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) for more skillful, timely, spatialized, sub-national yield predictions. MoA’s needs were outlined as follows:
Agronomic calendars for strategic crops (for food security, industrial and export purposes);
Crop monitoring tools (variability of crops conditions and development stages);
Non-destructive sampling methods (replacing crop cuts with Earth observation); and
Capacity building of MoA staff, NDMRC1 staff, and CSA2 staff in the use of different tools and methods for yield estimation (this latter need also aims to address outstanding discrepancies in yield estimates produced by MoA and by CSA).
The target granularity for the production of these yield and production estimates is the third administrative level (districts, or woredas) for at least two reasons:
Agro-environmental homogeneity: considering that Ethiopia counts 9 regions, subdivided
into 68 zones and about 770 woredas (of which 670 rural), woredas at an average area size of
1,500 km2 are expected to provide the upper limit of aggregation within which environmental
and agronomic management conditions can be considered as reasonably homogeneous for
CRAFT simulation setup;
1 National Disaster Risk Management Commission 2 Central Statistical Agency
phygital feedback loops
farm-level, basis risk reduced
insurance penetration improved
production surpluses achieved
households income increased
14
Subscale reference data: woredas (districts) are hosts to a total of about 15,000 kebeles
(wards) each harbouring at least five hundred families (~4,000 people) and three development
agents (DAs) for a country total of about 60,000 DAs. Each DA is specialized in either crop
production, animal science, and natural resources management (Abate et al., 2019) and
provides additional information and skill development services covering input supply, credit
(loan distribution and recovery), produce marketing, kebele administration and adjudication,
etc. (Kelemu et al., 2014). DAs are not specifically tasked with crop management and
production data collection but do intersect with the CSA’s yearly AgSS1, which typically
evaluates over 500,000 agricultural plots managed by 38,000 households in 1,850
enumeration areas (EAs) that do not cross kebele borders (Warner et al., 2015).
Further elements of discussion included:
The need to clarify where the benefits of subnational yield forecasts are expected to accrue
(including for smallholders); for example, the government is expected to benefit through
improved central procurement planning, optimization of distribution logistics, and reduction
of forex currency disbursement;
The identification of who will own, lead and/or implement the system including the exit
strategy and the need to aggressively front-load the capacitation effort;
The issue of data requirements for CRAFT operations. One key tenet of the CRAFT approach
is that instead of asking for data, the implementation team provides the product with ‘generic’
woreda-level settings and then asks the national implementers for feedback and tuning; the
partners then are not ‘mere’ data-providers, but become co-developers;
Opportunities for improved monitoring and evaluation capacity in governmental structures,
considering notably discrepancies in yield estimates between MoA and CSA.
3) Smallholder value chains (workstream #2)
Breakout sessions on the development of climate advisories in smallholder value chains examined a continuum of risk management conditions across the following contexts:
The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which operates in chronically food insecure woredas of the Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, SNNP and Tigray regions and aims to ‘graduate’ smallholder farmers from food aid recipients to self-sufficiency. Geographic areas covered by the PSNP are typically dominated by subsistence agriculture; in this context, risk management is largely undertaken at the farm scale by the producers themselves, e.g. through asset and livelihood diversification. In larger-scale disaster situations, insurance mechanisms may involve government-backed instruments such as the African Risk Capacity;
The Agricultural Growth Program (AGP), which aims to enhance agricultural productivity, surplus production and market access for key crop and livestock products in targeted woredas, with increased participation of women and youth in 93 woredas of the four major regions in Ethiopia (Berhane et al., 2013) in this context, emergent opportunities for commercial farming also entail the possibility for risk management externalization through innovative parametric and hybrid insurance products; it is unclear whether commercial
1 Agricultural Sample Survey
15
insurance products may be viable in the short term; donor and project support may be required for such products to mature and become sustainable;
The Agricultural Commercialization Clusters (ACCs), an initiative to integrate the interventions prioritized in Ethiopia’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) within specific geographies targeting a limited number of high-value commodities. ACCs involve the clustering of selected woredas to support rapid enhancement of priority crops, horticulture and livestock value addition to ensure sustainable specialization in a value chain approach. This context lends itself best to commercial insurance because of centralized, aggregated risk management made possible by the homogeneity of risk and law of large numbers. Insurance products may include indemnity products, supported by digital technology to reduce the cost of loss adjustments. Bundling of insurance with credit holds highest potential here.
Further elements of discussion included:
The potential impact of prescriptive vs. capacitive approaches in smallholder farmer
conditions. The sole dissemination of advisories at scale may not yield impact due to limited
local skill, actionability and relevance; the alternative / complementary opportunity would be
to create an enabling environment through last-mile capacitation to assess climate risk, e.g.
using participatory approaches such as PICSA especially in safety net areas such as PSNP; it
was argued that the multidimensionality of risk is more visible to farmers than to scientists;
The scope of insurance as a last-resort when everything fails, or as a substitution strategy for
risks where alternative management options exist; as one participant put it: “we don’t want
farmers to buy insurance, we want them to be insured against things they cannot afford”.
While the current policy framework calls for 10% of the insurance risk portfolio to come from
the rural sector, it is critical to determine whether it is in the farmers’ interest to get insurance.
This requires an improved understanding how much of the risk can be reduced through better
information for farmers (advisories as a de-risking tool) vs. insurance where skilful advisories
cannot be generated;
The pre-existence of established information channels, systems and initiatives and how
CASCAID may leverage these to improve the value of information already being shared, rather
than competing with them (this also applies to workstream # 1); in the case of smallholder
value chains, the need to consider whether this work stream fits into the PPP ordinance
passed by the government;
The pre-existence of power dynamics at the local level, e.g. between government’s
development agents (DAs) and farmers, and the need to be cognizant of these dynamics in
deploying advisory systems;
Leveraging opportunities in high agricultural potential areas: Global Green Growth Initiative
(GGGI) implemented by the Green Climate Fund (GCF), platforms such as Kifiya Financial
Technology PLC; bridging opportunities between PSNP and AGP with smallholder farmer
‘graduation’ e.g. through cash and food transfers
On the proposed deployment of PICSA in Ethiopia, no clear expression of interest was noted from partners present. It appears that Ethiopia could provide really good context and justification to roll out PICSA especially in more marginal agriculture areas such as the PSNP intervention zones – this would be further supported by the strong network of extension agents. However, CASCAID’s focus on smallholder value chains emphasizes the AGP context as the main target. Sites initially proposed for value chain work included: Bako, Adami Tulu and Hawasa Zuria. Extension workers from the Ministry of Agriculture will be key partners in value chain work as they have an official public mandate to provide agricultural monitoring and advisory services. There can be more than 10 such extension
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agents at a woreda level. At kebele level, 3 extension agents typically operate covering respectively crops, livestock and natural resource management.
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4) Activities, milestones, responsibilities
Activities Timeline People in charge (lead in bold)1
Deliverable (main in bold)
1.1 Assembling input data for CRAFT - Weather data assembled and quality checked (including
CHIRPS, ENACTS) - Soil data (including AfSIS, ISRIC, gridded soil profiles) - Crop mask (SPAM, 2010) - Crop management - Inputs and fertilizer - Observed historical yield data - Climate forecasts (CPT) - Sea surface temperatures
Nov-Dec19 Jan-Apr20 Jan-Jul20 Jan-Nov20 Jan20 Jan20 Jan20 Jun20
VS, KTF, EL, GM, PST RT, KTF, MA2 RT, KTF, GM RT, KTF, PST RT, KTF RT, KTF AA, EL, RT, KTF RT, MA, TD3 RT, MA, TD
D9648 D9658 D9658 D9658 D9658 D9658 D9658 D9654 D9654
1.2 CRAFT model evaluation - Run for a limited number of districts (woredas) - Evaluation of the forecast - Scaling to country level
May-Nov20 Dec20 May21
KTF, VS, EL, GM AA, RT, GM, VS KTF, RT, EL, AA EL, AA, RT, KTF, MA
D9658 D9654 D9648
1.3 Capacity building of national partners on CRAFT - Training #1 - Training #2 - Training #3 - Training #4
Feb20 May20 Nov20 tbd
EL, KTF, VS VS, KTF, GM, EL, MA
D9658
2.1 Advisory system setup - Selection of target crop and woreda - Introductory training of trainers - Customization/adaptation of data collection software and
questionnaires - Training of DAs for data collection - Farmers onboarding including digital profiling - Value chain stakeholder mapping / digitalization - Evaluation and finetuning of current advisory system (incl.
iSAT, IVRS messages, decision trees) - Farmer monitoring / advisory database interoperability
Oct19 Oct19 Oct-Nov19 Nov19 Nov-Dec19 Nov-Dec19 Dec19-Feb20 Mar-Apr20
PST, KTF, GM, EL KTF, PST PST, KTF PST, KTF, GM, EL GM, KTF, PST GM, PST, KTF GM, PST, KTF KTF, PST, GM PST, GM, KTF
D9657 D9641 D9655 D9655 D9655
2.2 Operational implementation (farm-level) and VC actors onboarding
- Training of DAs for continuous monitoring - Feedback loops: implementation of continuous monitoring
at farm level - Onboarding and engagement of VC actors (showing
registered data to actors with some analytics) - 2d advisory finetuning based on 1st season
observations/monitoring - Review of data gathering questionnaires / tools
Feb-Apr20 May-Nov20 Nov-Dec20 Jan-Apr21 Dec20-Feb21
PST, EL, AE, KTF, GM GM, PST, KTF EL, AE, PST AE, PST, GM KTF, PST, GM, EL GM, PST, KTF
D9657 D9655 D9655 D9655
2.3 Operational implementation (VC-level) - Customize system for VC actors - Negotiate farming contracts including advisory component - Feedback loops: implementation of continuous monitoring
at farm and VC levels - Operational VC-level analysis and validation (market)
Jul20-Feb21 Dec20-Apr21 May-Nov21 Oct-Dec21
PST, AE, EL, KTF PST, AE AE, PST, EL EL, AE, PST, KTF KTF, AE, PST, EL
D9657 D9655
1 List of contributors is not exhaustive 2 Mohammed Abera, NMA 3 Tufa Dinku, IRI
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5. REFERENCES Abate, G.T., Dereje, M., Hirvonen, K., Minten, B., 2019. Geography of public service delivery in rural
Ethiopia. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) & Ethiopia F.D.R. Policy Studies Institute, Strategy Support Program Working Paper 133, 26 p.
Berhane, G. Dereje, M., Hoddinott, J., Bethelehem, K, Nisrane, F., Tadesse, F., Taffesse, A.S., Worku, I., Yohannes, Y., 2013. Agricultural Growth Program (AGP) of Ethiopia. Baseline Report 2011. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II). International Food Policy Research Institute & Ethiopian Development Research Institute. 218 p.
Kelemu, K., Sime, M., Hailu, M., Zalalam, T., 2014. Determinants and Levels of Agricultural Development Agents Job Satisfaction: The Case of Kalu Woreda, South Wollo Zone of the Amhara National Regional State. Ethiopian Journal of Business and Economics 4 (1):149-175 (http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ejbe.v4i1.5)
Warner, J., Stehulak, T., Leulsegged, K., 2015. Woreda-level Crop Production Rankings in Ethiopia: A Pooled Data Approach. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Research for Ethiopia’s Agriculture Policy project (REAP). 39 p.
6. SLIDE DECKS AND NOTES
1) Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development – meeting objectives and expectations (K. Tesfaye – 8 slides)
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2) Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development – an introduction (P.C.S. Traoré – 10 slides)
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Discussion on the CASCAID-II introductory presentation
LT Are the tools interoperable?
AMW Request to make PPT available. Key pathways, impact, keep research portfolio
GH What were the learnings from CASCAID-I and how will they inform CASCAID-II?
SZ Outcome-driven tool use / choice. Impact in practice
AMW What can we leverage in the existing?
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3) Agrometeorology research in Ethiopia: EIAR’s experiences (D. Tibebe, J. Seid, K. Tesfaye – 34 slides)
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4) Climate and Market Information Delivery Tool: the case of ‘YezaRe Information System’ (S. Messay, N. Bayu – 21 slides)
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5) Crop yield estimation in Ethiopia (E. Lemma – 8 slides)
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6) Overview of PICSA – Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (D. Stern
– 31 slides)
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7) Learnings from CASCAID phase 1 (P.C.S. Traore – 5 slides)
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8) Managing climate risk (A.M. Whitbread, K.P.C. Rao and team – 23 slides)
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9) “Spatial” Yield Forecasting with CRAFT – the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting
Toolbox (G. Hoogenboom, V. Shelia – 37 slides)
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10) Nyala Insurance’s Agricultural Insurance Experience (S. Zegeye – 21 slides)
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