Richard Quincey

IES Ltd.

PrometheusThe Use of Probabilistic Climate Change Data to Future-proof Design Decisions in the Building Sector

Dr Tristan Kershaw

University of Exeter

ProjectFunded by:Partners:

Context

UK Building Regulations

Energy Policy

Design Weather Data

Sustainable Compliance

Mitigation / Adaptation

Sustainable Design Life … 100+ years?

Risk Assessment / Investment

Context - currentDSY weather data – current:

Context - futurePeak ext design temperatures – current:

1 2 3 4

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

TRY-H

DSY-H

TRY-H

DSY-H

Context - futureHDD & CDD – current:

2005 2030 2050 20800

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

TRY-H

DSY-H

TRY-H

DSY-H

Context - futureCEI – current:

2005 2030 2050 20800

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

TRY-H

DSY-H

PrometheusIPCC: there is a 50% chance that global warming will not exceed 2ºC for stabilisation of CO2-eq at 450ppm.

Currently we are at ~425ppm CO2-eq

CO2 emissions are currently greater than the A1FI emissions scenario

Prometheus

2oC global warming means ~6oC in London.

PrometheusPerception of climate change within the building industry

• Surveys of several architectural and engineering firms.• General concern about climate change and inadequacies of current practices.

Very few (~6%) actively denied climate change.• Greater seniority greater satisfaction with current practices.• Participants focused almost exclusively upon mitigation rather than adaptation

options when listing current practices.• Most common reactions to climate change were to reduce CO2 emissions,

increase sustainability and longevity of building design.• When asked about possible alternatives to current practices only 5% of

responses listed adaptation options, the rest were exclusively mitigation based.• Main barrier to change was time / money.

Published in Building and Environment 46 1151-1158 (2011)

PrometheusUKCP09 Probability Levels

PrometheusHow this affects the UK

PrometheusPossible impacts: Heatwaves

∆T warmest day ∆T warmest night

PrometheusSo we need weather files! CIBSE files:14 sites

Exeter files: 35 sites

• 3 time periods• 5 probability levels• Medium and high emission

scenarios• Both TRY and DSY type files

Method peer reviewed and published. Building Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. (online).

Files available for free download from:

http://www.exeter.ac.uk/cee/prometheus

PrometheusComparing files: CDFs

The UKCP09 weather generator produces 3000 years of weather from which we assemble our probabilistic files.

The five probabilistic files map well the distribution of the whole set.

PrometheusComparing files: CDDs and HDDs

Prometheus

Things to consider:

• Risk to occupants, vulnerable groups.

• Cost benefit analysis

• Dialogue with client

The range of possible climate change is large. So which files should you be using?

Exeter files versus CIBSE files

Adapting Buildings

• Increased occupancy

• Modern office environment

• Possible future changes in use

• Overheating, comfort and productivity

Brief:To create a timeline of possible adaptation

LifecycleBuilding …

100 years

HVAC …

25 years

Climate lifecycle

2005 2030 2050 2080

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

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DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

TRY-H

DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

Peak temperature …

Climate lifecycle

2005 2030 2050 20801500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

TRY-H

DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

Heating degree days…

2005 2030 2050 20801000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

TRY-H

DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

Climate lifecycleCooling degree days…

Climate energy index… all hours

Climate lifecycle

2005 2030 2050 20805

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

TRY-H

DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

Climate lifecycleClimate energy index…9am to 5pm

2005 2030 2050 208015

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

TRY-H

DSY-H

PROTRY-50

PRODSY-50

ConclusionsPrometheus data:

Uses the latest UKCIP data (2009)Higher level of confidence than 2002 dataIt is free … just download itProtect investment – assess the riskBuilt form – design for mitigation (CAF) – design in adaptation strategyHVAC – short lifecycle / long term strategy

Questions

Please ?