trend analysis as the first step of the design process

aga szóstek(at)gmail.com

where do the trends come from?

-  observation of new technologies (military!) -  observation of industrial developments: transportation,

electronics, sports, home equipment, food industry, etc. -  research regarding social and consumer behaviours

(lifestyles, demographics, politics, economics, environment)

-  analysis of the public space such as bus stops, airports, cafes, etc.

Zuzanna Skalska – trend watcher

aging of our societies influences the health system

medical care moves away from the hospitals to homes

visible change in the health insurance policies and also bedroom furniture standards

the current „medical” furniture used to support elderly at home is ugly and inconvenient

furniture producers change the shape and functionality of bedroom equipment

trend analysis is a method to find information in order to discover patterns

trend scanning trend scouting trend

verification opportunity

mapping

indirect observation of consumer lifestyle aspirations research analysis verification of existing trends

direct observation of consumer lifestyle in context substantiation of trends and lifestyle issues in context

direct contact with consumers in context eliciting lifestyle aspirations for today, tomorrow and dreams

decoding of issues and opportunities identifying winning design characteristics generating multiple concept directions

microtrend half-a-portion: 9cm pizza in Pizza Hut

miditrend downsizing

maxitrend simple life

macrotrend deconsumption

macro- and microtrends

microtrend Farm to fork

miditrend ecological eating

maxitrend eco friendliness

macrotrend ecological lifestyle influ

ence

macro- and microtrends

macrotrends

based on: “Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee and Citizen” przygotowanym przez The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +

society industrial dream creative

1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +

society industrial dream creative

organization hierarchy company values network

1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +

society industrial dream creative

organization hierarchy company values network

motivation material needs, comfort and

security

social needs and dreams

self-development,

values and challenges

1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +

society industrial dream creative

organization hierarchy company values network

motivation material needs, comfort and

security

social needs and dreams

self-development,

values and challenges

workspace good quality physical working

space

a place enabling interesting social

contacts

a place providing possibilities for being creative

1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +

society industrial dream creative

organization hierarchy company values network

motivation material needs, comfort and

security

social needs and dreams

self-development,

values and challenges

workspace good quality physical working

space

a place enabling interesting social

contacts

a place providing possibilities for being creative

employee manageable loyal innovative

the main consequences of the upcoming changes are:

-  the end of the abundance era

-  integration of the producer and the consumer into a prosument

microtrends

POP-UP CULTURE catch me before I disapear!

Zalando  Pop-­‐Up  Store  

SHOWROOMING viewing offline buying online

over 30% of people worldwide admit to showrooming 21% uses a mobile phone to do so

SELF GIFTING a gift to myslef

SOCIAL SHOPPING buying together

MIY „MAKE IT YOURSELF” I can do it myslef

SIMPLEXITY complex simple prducts

trend mapping

how about technological trends?

„There is solid data from national research council saying that every new idea by the time it reaches maturity takes about 20 years. Every technology of today has been most likely first built 10 to 20 years earlier. And tell me that it’s fast moving…”

Bill Buxton

It took a mouse 30 years from the moment it was built in 1965 to the moment it became ubiquitous in 1995  

one of the first calculator watches by Citizen (1979)  

Kinect was first built in 1999 at Microsoft research labs before it became a commercial success in 2009

iPronto (2001) a commercialized attempt by Philips to build a tablet

ubiquity is not the problem, transparency is

technology push – because it is possible

focus on the product and the need behind it rather than technology

just a shoe

something quite bigger than just a shoe

“The true voyage of discovery is not to go to new places but to have other eyes.”

Marcel Proust

“The future is already here it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

William Gibson

references Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee and Citizen - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=56090 “Teczka Trendów 2014” – 4P Research Mix www.4prm.com/trendy/teczka_trendow.html What’s next - www.nowandnext.com 360 Inspiration Blog - www.360inspiration.nl Trendwatching - trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014-07-INNOVATION-CELEBRATION.pdf IDEO - www.ideo.com/images/uploads/news/pdfs/Empathy_on_the_Edge.pdf