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Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1 Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004-2008 [HR.CTD001.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/4/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
2
Contents
List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3
FWL vs. FWA vs. Mobile ....................................................................................................... 4
Wireline vs. Wireless ............................................................................................................. 6
Fixed vs. Mobile ..................................................................................................................... 8
Growth ................................................................................................................................. 10
Teledensity ........................................................................................................................... 16
Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 18
Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
3
List of Figures & Tables
Figure 1 Telecom Subscribers – FWL, FWA & Mobile (2004-2008) ................................... 4 Figure 2 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type (2004-2008) ................................ 5 Figure 3 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type at 2008E .................................... 5 Figure 4 Telecom Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) ..................................... 6 Figure 5 Portion of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................ 7 Figure 6 Market Share of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) ....................... 7 Figure 7 Telecom Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) ............................................. 8 Figure 8 Portion of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................... 9 Figure 9 Market Share of Subscribers – Mobile & Fixed (2004-2008) ............................... 9 Figure 10 Growth of Telecom Subscribers – All (2004-2008) ............................................ 10 Figure 11 Growth of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008) .................................................... 11 Figure 12 Growth of FWL Subscribers (2004-2008) .......................................................... 12 Figure 13 Growth of Fixed Subscribers (2004-2008) ......................................................... 13 Figure 14 Growth of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2009) ....................................................... 14 Figure 15 Growth of FWA Subscribers (2004-2008) .......................................................... 15 Figure 16 Growth of FWA Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ................................................... 15 Figure 17 Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ...................................................................... 16 Figure 18 Wireless Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ....................................................... 16 Figure 19 Mobile / Cellular Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) .......................................... 17 Figure 20 Fixed Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ............................................................ 17
Table 1 Number of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) ......................................................... 4 Table 2 Percentage of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) .................................................... 4 Table 3 Number of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) .................................. 6 Table 4 Percentage of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) .............................. 6 Table 5 Number of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) .......................................... 8 Table 6 Percentage of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) ...................................... 8
Figure Table 1 Growth of Subscribers – All (AGR & CAGR) ............................................ 10 Figure Table 2 Growth of Wireless Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ..................................... 11 Figure Table 3 Growth of FWL Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ........................................... 12 Figure Table 4 Growth of Fixed Subscribers – AGR & CAGR .......................................... 13 Figure Table 5 Growth of Mobile Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ........................................ 14
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
F
PSTN/FWFWA Mobile
PSTN/FWFWA Mobile
1
1
1
1
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure 1 T
2WL
3
Tab
WL
Table
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
rch rvirtual.com
Telecom S
2004E 8,582,228 1,684,113
30,250,415
le 1 Num
2004E 21.2 4.2 74.7
e 2 Percen
0
0
0
0
0
PSTN/
m/harewos
FW
Subscribe
2005E8,710,34,819,6
46,587,3
mber of Te
2005E14.5 8.0 77.5
ntage of T
/FWL
All O
L vs.
ers – FWL
20385 8629 6371 63
elecom Su
201
8
Telecom S
FWA
Opera
Telec
. FWA
L, FWA &
006E 8,738,3436,102,1373,803,108
ubscriber
006E 11.1 7.8 81.1
Subscrib
Mo
ators
com Custom
A vs.
& Mobile (
2007E 8,717,7
10,811,493,387,0
rs (2004-2
2007E 7.7 9.6 82.7
ers (2004
obile
mer Bases –
. Mob
(2004-200
20760 8479 21019 140
2008)
20518
4-2008)
– Part 1
4
bile
8)
008E 8,674,228,124,057
0,548,229
008E 5.1 12.4 82.5
2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fig
F
Mar
ket P
erce
ntag
e
wos.Resear/www.ligar
gure 2 Ma
igure 3 M
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2
Mar
ket P
erce
ntag
e
rch rvirtual.com
arket Sha
Market Sh
2004E 2
Tele
m/harewos
are of Tel
hare of Te
2005E 2
All O
Mobile83%
ecom M
lecom Sub
elecom Su
006E 20
Opera
PSTN/F5%
Marke2008E
Telec
bscribers
ubscribe
007E 20
ators
FWL%
FWA12%
et by TE
com Custom
s by Type
rs by Typ
008E
Type
mer Bases –
e (2004-20
pe at 2008
PSTN/FWFWAMobile
– Part 1
5
008)
8E
WL
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
F
WirelineWireless
Ta
WirelessWireline
Tab
1
1
1
1
1
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure 4 T
2e s 3
able 3 Nu
2s e
ble 4 Perc
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
rch rvirtual.com
Telecom S
2004E 8,582,228
31,934,528
umber of
2004E 78.8 21.2
centage o
0
0
0
0
0
0
W
m/harewos
W
Subscribe
2005E8,710,3
51,407,0
Subscrib
2005E85.5 14.5
of Subscr
Wireline
All O
Wire
ers – Wir
20385 8000 69
bers – Wir
2081
ibers – W
Opera
Telec
eline
eline & W
006E 8,738,3439,905,245
reline & W
006E 88.9 11.1
Wireline &
Wireless
ators
com Custom
vs. W
Wireless (
2007E 8,717,7
104,198,4
Wireless (
2007E 92.3 7.7
& Wireles
mer Bases –
Wirel
(2004-2008
20760 8498 161
(2004-200
2095
s (2004-20
– Part 1
6
less
8)
008E 8,674,228,672,286
08)
008E 94.9 5.1
008)
2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Figur
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
re 6 Mark
78.
2004
rch rvirtual.com
ure 5 Port
ket Share
.8
4E 2
W
TeW
m/harewos
tion of W
e of Subsc
85.5
2005E
Wireles
W
lecomWirelin
Wireless Su
cribers –
88.9
2006E
ss Port
Wir9
Wireline5%
m Markne vs. W
Telec
ubscriber
Wireline
92.3
2007E
tion (%
reless95%
ket 200Wirele
com Custom
rs (2004-2
e & Wirele
3 9
E 20
%)
08Ess
mer Bases –
2008)
ess (2004-
94.9
008E
– Part 1
7
-2008)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fixed Mobile
Fixed Mobile
T
1
1
1
1
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure 7
213
Table 5 N
2
Table 6 Pe
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
rch rvirtual.com
7 Telecom
2004E 10,266,341 30,250,415
Number o
2004E 25.3 74.7
ercentage
0
0
0
0
0
m/harewos
m Subscr
2005E13,530,046,587,3
of Subscr
2005E22.5 77.5
e of Subs
Fixed
All O
F
ribers – F
20014 14371 63
ribers – F
2018
scribers –
Opera
Telec
Fixe
ixed & M
006E 4,840,4803,803,108
Fixed & M
006E 18.9 81.1
– Fixed &
Mobile
ators
com Custom
d vs.
Mobile (20
2007E 19,529,293,387,0
Mobile (20
2007E 17.3 82.7
Mobile (
mer Bases –
. Mob
04-2008)
20239 29019 140
004-2008)
2018
2004-2008
– Part 1
8
bile
008E 9,798,2850,548,229
008E 17.5 82.5
8)
2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fig
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
gure 9 Ma
74.
2004
rch rvirtual.com
ure 8 Por
arket Sha
.7
4E 2
M
Te
m/harewos
rtion of M
are of Sub
77.5
2005E
Mobile
Mobile83%
lecomMobi
Mobile Su
bscribers
81.1
2006E
e Porti
m Markle vs. F
Telec
ubscriber
s – Mobile
82.7
2007E
ion (%
Fixed17%
ket 200Fixed
com Custom
rs (2004-2
e & Fixed
7 8
E 20
%)
08E
mer Bases –
008)
d (2004-20
82.5
008E
– Part 1
9
008)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure
Figure
AGCA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
10 Growt
Table 1 G
50,000,00
100,000,00
150,000,00
200,000,00
T
20GR 4AGR 4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Telec
m/harewos
th of Tele
Growth o
0
00
00
00
0
2004
TelecomG
0058.28.2
com Su
ecom Sub
f Subscri
2005 200
m SubGrowth
43%
200630.739.2
ubscrib
Telec
bscribers
ibers – Al
06 2007
bscribeh
%
200743.540.6
ber Gr
com Custom
G
– All (200
ll (AGR &
2008
er
254
rowth
mer Bases –
Grow
04-2008)
& CAGR)
200850.943.1
– Part 1
10
wth
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
F
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure Ta
AGCA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
re 11 Gro
able 2 Gro
50,000,00
100,000,00
150,000,00
200,000,00
W
20GR 6AGR 6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Wirel
m/harewos
owth of W
owth of W
0
00
00
00
0
2004
WirelesG
0051.01.0
less Su
Wireless S
Wireless S
2005 200
ss SubGrowth
50%
200636.048.0
ubscrib
Telec
Subscribe
Subscribe
06 2007
bscribeh
%
200749.148.3
ber Gr
com Custom
ers (2004-
ers – AGR
2008
er
255
rowth
mer Bases –
-2008)
R & CAGR
200855.250.0
– Part 1
11
R
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
Figure T
AGCA
-1
-0
0
0
1
1
2
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
gure 12 G
Table 3 G
8,500,000
8,550,000
8,600,000
8,650,000
8,700,000
8,750,000
FW
20GR 1AGR 1
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
FW
m/harewos
Growth of
Growth of
2004 2
WL Sub
0051.51.5
WL Sub
f FWL Sub
f FWL Su
2005 2006
scribe
20060.30.9
scribe
Telec
bscribers
ubscriber
6 2007
er Gro
2007-0.20.5
er Gro
com Custom
s (2004-20
rs – AGR &
2008
wth
0.3%
2
wth
mer Bases –
008)
& CAGR
2008-0.50.3
– Part 1
12
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
Figure T
AGCA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ure 13 Gr
Table 4 G
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Fixe
20GR 3AGR 3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Fixe
m/harewos
rowth of
Growth of
0
0
0
0
2004
ed Sub
0051.81.8
ed Sub
Fixed Su
f Fixed Su
2005 200
bscribe
31%
20069.720.2
bscribe
Telec
ubscriber
ubscriber
6 2007
er Gro
200731.623.9
er Gro
com Custom
rs (2004-20
rs – AGR
2008
owth
253
owth
mer Bases –
008)
& CAGR
200852.630.5
– Part 1
13
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure T
AGCA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ure 14 Gr
Table 5 Gr
20,000,0040,000,0060,000,0080,000,00
100,000,00120,000,000140,000,000160,000,000
Mob
20GR 5AGR 5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mob
m/harewos
rowth of M
rowth of
000000000000
2004
ile Sub
0054.04.0
ile Sub
Mobile Su
Mobile S
2005 200
bscrib
47%
200637.045.2
bscrib
Telec
ubscriber
ubscribe
06 2007
ber Gro
%
200746.445.6
ber Gro
com Custom
rs (2004-2
ers – AGR
2008
owth
254
owth
mer Bases –
2009)
R & CAGR
200850.546.8
– Part 1
14
R
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
Figur
AGCA
020406080
100120140160180200
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
gure 15 G
re 16 Gro
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
FWA
20GR 18AGR 18
0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
FWA
m/harewos
Growth of
owth of FW
0
0
0
0
2004
WA Sub
00586.286.2
A Sub
f FWA Sub
WA Subs
2005 200
bscribe
88%
200626.690.4
scribe
Telec
bscribers
cribers –
6 2007
er Gro
%
200777.285.9
er Gro
com Custom
s (2004-20
– AGR & C
2008
wth
298
wth
mer Bases –
008)
CAGR
200895.488.2
– Part 1
15
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
18.7
200
14.7
200
rch rvirtual.com
Figure 1
ure 18 Wi
72%2
04E
T(M
76%2
04E
W
m/harewos
17 Teleco
ireless Te
27.34%
2005E
elecomMobile
23.38%
2005E
Wireles
om Telede
elecom Te
35.31%
2006E
m Telee+FWA
31.38%
2006E
ss Tele
Telec
ensity (20
eledensit
50.04%
2007E
edensitA+FWL
46.18%
2007E
edensit
com Custom
Tele
004-2008)
ty (2004-2
%
74.
E 200
tyL)
%
70.
E 200
ty
mer Bases –
edens
2008)
54%
08E
75%
08E
– Part 1
16
sity
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure 1
Fig
13.9
200
3.9
0.7
200
rch rvirtual.com
19 Mobile
gure 20 F
98%2
04E
Mobil
97%
78%
04E
F
m/harewos
e / Cellula
Fixed Tele
21.19%
2005E
le / Cel
3.96%
2.19%
2005E
Fixed PST
ar Teleco
ecom Tel
28.64%
2006E
llular
3.92%
2.7
2006E
TeledTN/FWL
Telec
m Telede
ledensity
41.39%
2007E
Telede
3.86%4%
4.79%
2007E
densityFWA
com Custom
ensity (20
(2004-20
%
61.
E 200
ensity
%
3.8
E 200
y
mer Bases –
004-2008)
08)
50%
08E
y
80%
9.24%
08E
– Part 1
17
Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
18
Abbreviations & Notes
AGR Annual Growth Rate
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
2008E At the end of year 2008
FWA Fixed Wireless Access (Limited Mobile Service)
FWL Fixed Wire-Line (PSTN – Public Switched Telephone Network)