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STRUCTURED SOLUTIONS TO WICKED PROBLEMS
CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION WITHOUT PERMISSION
Strategy Foresight LtdImperial College Incubator
Bessemer Building (Level 1) Imperial College London
London SW7 2AZEmail: [email protected] | Tel: +44 (0)7786 266878 | www.strategyforesight.org
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STRATEGY FORESIGHT LTDStrategy Foresight is an innovative, revenue generating technology company focused on developing solutions to help companies improve their decision making under conditions of uncertainty and complexity. The company has developed proprietary decision support software that combines qualitative and quantitative data into a single easy-to-use integrated tool that can be used by any business or institution.
Today, the software has been used by a number of leading organisations including NATO, Janssen Healthcare and City University. Strategy Foresight aims to be at the vanguard of new IT companies developing solutions that supports senior leadership tasked with a critical series of difficult-to-quantify, complex and uncertain problems.
Strategy Foresight’s key strengths are as follows:• Industry-leading multi-disciplinary team with a strong track record of working together and delivering value• Based at Imperial College London with the ability to harness specialist centres such as the software optimisation group and
quantum computing centre• Robust focus on IP generation and protection supported by world-renowned technological capabilities
INTRODUCING STRATEGY FORESIGHT
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VISION MISSION FOUNDATION
To be the leading company in the Dectech sector developing solutions that supports senior leadership tasked with a critical series of difficult-to-quantify, complex and uncertain problems
Deploy Strategy Foresight’s decision making technologies to help organisations achieve rapid sustainable solutions for complex problems, while achieving maximum stakeholders buy-in through fully auditable and repeatable process
Strategy Foresight comprises a multi-disciplinary team based at a world renowned research university & led by technologists and an experienced commercial team that have built the world’s first commercially accessible morphological analytical technology for decision support
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TEAM OVERVIEWA team of highly skilled professionals who have a wealth of experience of solving complex problems
DIRECTORS
Bruce GarveyFounder & MD
Dr Nasir HussainFounder
Jeremy GloverLegal counsel
Dr Giles RussellAcademic liaison
COMMERCIAL AND TECHNOLOGY TEAM
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TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENTIFIC TEAM
Prof. Peter ChildsChief Scientific Advisor
Ali SadiqChief Technology Advisor
Dr David CampbellChairman of Advisory Board
Brenda King MBEAdvisory Board
Dr Wes HarryAdvisory Board
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“WICKED PROBLEMS”BACKGROUND
• A ‘wicked problem’ is one that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognise. Analysing big data is a prime example of a wicked problem.
• When data is everywhere, how do you find a true answer among the multitude of knowledge, opinion, disinformation and speculation?
• The challenge is how to deal with large unstructured data sets where the relationship between the multitude of variables is poorly defined leading to sub-optimal decision making and spurious correlations
OPPORTUNITY
The proprietary software platform that Strategy Foresight has developed and tested with leading clients:
• Systematically structures and examines all possible relationships in a multi-dimensional problem space derived from any data set
• Enables informed views of experts to be whittled down from the mass of 'maybes and possibles' to a manageable set of 'crucial and important’
• Supports a generic methodology that can be applied across a wide number of sector and business applications and issues
• Automated recording and maintenance of an audit trail for regulatory compliance and machine learning
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TYPICAL WICKED PROBLEMS
In a world increasingly driven by digital technology, how will our organisation maintain and train its workforce?
How can I leverage all my organization's security assets to prepare, detect and respond to Cyber Attacks?
What are the various scenarios and attendant strategies for the our organisation in the event of Brexit given the conflicting political and economic information?
How can cities continue to be creative and productive in the face of population growth, resource consumption and infrastructure strains?
As the world’s population rapidly ages, how do we provide for a sustainable and cost-effective healthcare coverage?
STRUCTURED SOLUTIONS TO WICKED PROBLEMS
Standard approaches indealing with wicked problem
results in fudging the decision, waste of resource & time and
unintended consequences
Strategy Foresight's technologies structures thecomplex mess identifying
viable paths A world full of local and global wicked problems
Not helped by the mass of confusing unstructured data
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The unique algorithm is Morphological Analysis used for structuring big data sets, using experts’ knowledgewith multidimensional matrix of mutually exclusive alternatives spread amongst different dimensions of interest
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CURRENT TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
Strategy Foresight’s existing solution is an expert-based approach using the world’s first commercially accessible morphological analytical based technology (formerly restricted to defence departments)
The power of the technology is the ability to rapidly reduce vast problem spaces containing millions of solutions without losing the efficacy of the process by only taking a handful of decisions. Typically, a problem space of over 1 million options is reduced by over 99% in a few seconds.
The technology has been validated by clients and has highlighted the need to scale and automate the process
Project: Developing emergency response planning for the Swedish government
Over 57,600 unique possible options in this 8-dimensional problem space
With expert facilitation and proprietary technology, 12 critical options identified with group consensus – one shown in blue
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BUSINESS PROPOSITIONOPPORTUNITY• Correctly analyse ‘big data’ to deliver optimal decisions and provide competitive advantage to those that can exploit it• Able to leverage data and thus solve wicked problems irrespective of their format• Develop the next generation of decision modelling technologies while allowing the flexibility to use computer-based learning techniques.• Innovation is required to connect the islands of decision making technologies and their integration into business intelligence systems via universal
APIs (active programming interfaces)• Building on the success of on-going work with NATO and Imperial College, Strategy Foresight’s proprietary technology offers a unique approach to
bridge the gap between academia and commerce and leverage this relationship
MOTIVATION• 90% of the world’s data has been produced in the previous 2 years• Everyone is now a data producer and a data consumer• Technology giants (Google, Baidu, Amazon, Facebook) are investing in new sources of technological innovation. Artificial Intelligence investment
alone was £2.2 billion in 2015.• London’s unique ecosystem of technology, academe and finance coupled with its strategic geo-political position allows big technology firms to get
a foothold in the rapidly-evolving landscape• Founders, directors and advisors to Strategy Foresight are excellently connected in this ecosystem
SO WHAT BOXES1) Policies
2) Funding decisions
Morphological Analysis
MCDA
Bayesian Networks
Others
Decision Methodologies
Data
Acq
uisiti
on
Structured and Non-Structured Data Sources
ORACLE
MS-SQL
SAP
SPLUNK
MS - Excel
Social Media
Search Engines
Google, Yahoo
IBM Watson
R (statistical Analysis)
Matlab (mathematical analysis)
Machine Learning e.g. Tensorflow
Supporting Analytics
Neural Networks / Genetic algorithms
Decision making support
Commercially available applications e.g. visualisation via
Tableau, QLIK
Entry into custom software internal to the organisations e.g.
Sentinel at MHRA / DOH
Aerospace / DefencePharma / HealthcareRisk ManagementCyber Security
Building an open decision modelling software platform with rich internal and external data acquisition and analytics capabilities. L everage the wealth of experience internal to Strategy Foresight & through collaboration with Imperial College to address the technology gap in the market of seamless connection and reporting
NEXT GENERATION SOLUTION
Decision Modelling and Analysis
Operationalise
Aerospace / DefencePharma / Healthcare
Foresight Monitoring
Sector intelligence
Foresight Modelling Foresight Management
Thought leadershipIntermediating the DECTECH space
Insight Analysis Foresight
Research Technology solutions Networking
Primary and SecondaryResearch
Licensing and co-developmentTraining and support
Peer dialogueSharing next practice
DEVELOPING THE DECISION TECH SECTOR (‘DECTECH’)In the fragmented market place of decision support technologies, Strategy Foresight’s vision is to create
and lead the DecTech ecosystem
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STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIPSCURRENT COLLABORATORS Targeted co-development partners*
DEAL SOURCING POTENTIAL EXITS
* List of Partners to be finalised
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THIRD PARTY VALIDATIONAlong with technology development, Strategy Foresight has gained third party validation of its off-line and on-
line of decision-making technologies through organisational partnerships
Partnerships
• Dyson School of Design Engineering (Imperial College)
• Imperial College Consultants• Polaris Consulting (specialist
defence firm working with MOD)• CFAR-m (neural network
specialist firm based in France)
Users in the loop
• NATO Supreme Allied Command • Faculty of Security Studies,
University of Belgrade
Completed projects
• Janssen Healthcare Innovations• City University London• Charles River Associates• Reed Smith• Institute of Consulting
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CASE STUDIESCharles River Associates (CRA)
Challenge: A leading global consulting firm that offers economic, financial, and strategic expertise to major law firms, corporations, accounting firms, and governments around the world. CRA wanted to develop an enhanced strategic modelling offering to clients by applying Strategy Foresight’s proprietary algorithmic approach to business frameworks.
Intervention: Strategy Foresight facilitated senior consultants to re-develop the SWOT analysis. This was done as a precursor to reinvigorating other commonly strategic frameworks that contain multiple parameters such as PESTLE, VRIO and FMEA. Novel processes were developed such as causality, correlation, and relevance.
Outcome: CRA applied the morphological SWOT to a pharmaceutical firm undergoing significant market entry problems in Europe and isolated key critical paths of how to develop the market for this US client.
Janssen Healthcare InnovationsChallenge: Janssen Healthcare Innovations, which operates as a corporate spin-out subsidiary, wanted to explore a number of strategic options service offering to the UK’s National Health Service (NHS).
Intervention: A workshop conducted at Imperial College London developed a multi-factorial decision support model on the most optimal way for Janssen to introduce their patient-engagement services to the NHS.
Outcome: The decision support model developed allowed Janssen to validate their existing offerings to the NHS and identified previously unconsidered creative and innovative options. The latter was important as the NHS is a fragmented marketplace with each care commissioning group requiring bespoke solutions for their local healthcare needs. A major advantage of the model was the ease with which it could be updated without re-building the entire model.
TESTIMONIALS
“A structured approach to addressing problems and decision support, which proved insightful in revealing a number of outcomes that had not previously been identified”Dr Mirren Mandalia, Johnson & Johnson
“Strategy Foresight has made the case that they can deliver a unique consultative facilitation to help build decision support paradigms within firms”Research and Enterprise Unit, City University
“Strategy Foresight has a compelling method that brings together the thoughts of many different stakeholders and aligns them around a single solution to complex problems” Graham Kennedy, CEO of Alexoria (Co-ordinator of IoC/CMI white paper)
“As with many industries, decision making in the life science space is highly complex. We were extremely impressed by both the individuals at Strategy Foresight and also the knowledge and capabilities that they bring to the table”Dr David Campbell, Senior VP and Head of Life Science Consulting Europe for Charles River Associates
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KEY STRENGTHS• Founders and shareholders have a wealth of experience in decision support and decision analytics
• Directors have worked closely with organisations such as the NATO, UK Department of Defence and GCQH
• Chief Scientific Advisor is Head of Dyson School of Design Engineering at Imperial College and a serial entrepreneur
• A board of directors and advisors that have experience across the key target sectors for the business
• Existing, high-profile clients including NATO-ACT (Allied Commander Transformation) at Virginia, USA and Janssen Healthcare Innovations (UK)
• An early-stage post-revenue business whose operational plan reduces costs and increases shareholder value
• Addressing an unmet technology gap in the market of seamlessly connecting currently available and future decision support systems harnessing internal and external unstructured data
• Semi-tailoring of the existing solution brings significant value to the product and higher revenues to the business to complement use of funds
• Large IT co-development partners via Imperial College for recouping R&D costs, developing commercially scalable technology solutions and potential exiting
• SEIS eligible and have received advanced assurance for R&D tax relief to complement use of funds
STRATEGY FORESIGHT LTD
CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION WITHOUT PERMISSION
Email: [email protected] | Tel: +44 (0)7786 266878 | www.strategyforesight.org
Imperial College IncubatorBessemer Building (Level 1)
Imperial College LondonLondon SW7 2AZ
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APPENDIX
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FOUNDER & DIRECTOR PROFILE
BRUCE GARVEY
Bruce’s 40 years experience has been spent in both the major corporate and SME sectors, performing a wide range of roles as a senior business executive including company director (plus non-executive), mentor, advisor and consultant.
His earlier career was spent with a major multi-national, (Xerox), in a number of staff and operational posts (forecasting specialist, marketing planning, regional pricing, new markets evaluation), in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. This was followed by extensive exposure to SME sector issues as a start-up entrepreneur and turn-around specialist.
He has a MBA from Cass Business School, London, a Post-graduate Diploma in Economic Integration from Stockholm University, Sweden and a BSc (Hons) in Sociology from London University.
He is a member of the Institute of Directors (including its City Branch) and of the British Operational Research Society and a Freeman of the Worshipful Company of Management Consultants.
At Strategy Foresight, Bruce deals with problem analysis for complex decisions taken under uncertainty. Bruce is currently taking a PhD at Imperial College in problem analysis and decision support relating to innovation in engineering and design.
MD of Strategy Foresight Previous career in forecasting with Xerox
Expertise in early start-ups and turnarounds
Completing PhD at Imperial
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FOUNDER & DIRECTOR PROFILE
DR NASIR HUSSAIN
Nasir has over 20 years experience in pharmaceutical industry, academia and as a medicines regulator with the Department of Health (MHRA).
With a strong track record in life sciences services, Nasir has developed a series of approaches to design, prioritization and modelling the commercial potential of new developments using multi-criteria decision analysis, non-quantified modelling and quantitative research.
At Cass Business School he developed operational frameworks for mitigating risk in drug licensing deals and was awarded the 2008 Finance prize by The London Guild of International Bankers for his application of Financial Portfolio Theory.
At Strategy Foresight, Nasir specialises as a methodologist and facilitator in complex decision making using problem structuring methods (morphological analysis; soft systems methodology), multi-criteria decision analysis (AHP) and quantitative analysis (Monte Carlo simulations).
His current interest resides in identifying adverse drug reactions from the mass of unstructured data on the web to reduce hospitalization rate, the 4th largest cause of (preventable) hospital admissions.
UK’s expert on children’s medicines
Representation on 6 EU health committees
Co-founder / early-stage employee of 5 life science
firms50+ publications and patents
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DIRECTOR & GENERAL COUNSEL
JEREMY GLOVER
Jeremy is a senior legal consultant advising on shareholder structure, board remuneration, management incentives, employee share plans, advisory employment law issues and advisory corporate law issues.
Jeremy also advises on fund raising. He has over 19 years’ experience advising international businesses on legal and management issues and has led teams at US and UK law firms as well as Ernst & Young LLP.
Until recently he was head of UK incentives at Reed Smith LLP. Jeremy is recommended in lawyer guides Chambers and Legal 500 with clients stating that he has a "broad base of experience" and seeks to "understand what it is that clients are trying to achieve" and is “extremely good at cutting through to the nub of a matter”.
Jeremy is also a non-executive director of a number of companies and trustee of a number of charities.
At Strategy Foresight, Jeremy responsibilities as general counsel involves technology collaborations and corporate legal issues.
MBA Cass Business School Previous roles at EY, PwC Expertise in Anglo-Indian
legal sectorExpertise in corporate
law
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DIRECTOR
DR GILES RUSSELL
Giles’s career spans science, engineering and government.
He lectures on management and heads the advanced decision making module in the MA Leadership and Management programme at Lord Ashcroft International Business School.
His work for defense ministries led to his representing the UK government on strategic exports and non-proliferation. Giles served on the committee for export denial and was liaison between the Export Control Organization and GCHQ on information security. He later worked on air cargo risk management for the US Department of Homeland Security.
Giles has a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Queensland, MBA from Cass Business School and PhD in chemical engineering from Imperial College.
Expertise in defence sector
Previous roles at MOD, GCHQ PhD Imperial College Founder of 8 start-ups
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CHIEF SCIENTIFIC ADVISOR
PROF. PETER CHILDS
Professor Childs is Head of the School of Design Engineering at Imperial College London, having taken up a chair at Imperial in 2008.
His interests include creativity, the application of creativity tools, mechanical and product design, rotational flow, temperature measurement, sustainable energy and system design.
He was formerly director of InQbate, the government funded Centre of Excellence in Teaching and Learning in Creativity, and of the Rolls-Royce supported University Technology Centre for Aero-Thermal Systems.
He is the joint course director for the Innovation Design Engineering and the Global Innovation Design double masters degrees run jointly by the Royal College of Art and Imperial.
UK’s leader in Design Engineering
Previous roles at Rolls Royce Founder of 5 start-ups 100+ papers and
patents
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CHIEF TECHNOLOGY ADVISOR
ALI SADIQ
Ali is a senior technology executive with over 20 years’ experience within the financial sector.
During that period he has occupied a number of positions covering the full spectrum of the technology development, implementation and management life cycle including the Product Management, Service management, Engineering and development, IT Architecture, Operations management, Policy and standard development and Risk Management.
Ali’s special area of interest is the field of Security and Risk and he has extensively covered portfolios relating to Access control, Cybersecurity, Cryptography, Data protection and Risk management frameworks development and Implementation within large global organizations.
Most recently Ali has occupied the position of Head of Security Governance and Strategy for a global Tier 1 financial institution, UBS where he’s been there for over 18 years. Ali has a BSc in Computer and Electronic Engineering from King’s College London.
London’s IT risk & cyber specialist
20+ years in coding experience
20+ years in banking operational roles
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BOARD PROFILE
DR DAVID ANDREW CAMPBELL
Dr David Campbell is currently CEO of Magnus Life Science. In addition to various non-executive roles, David is also Chairman of five Magnus companies and a Director of Regenerate Life Science.
Prior to joining Magnus Life Science David spent over 10 years in Management Consulting to the Life Science Industry where he sold and delivered numerous projects in the areas of market entry strategy, emerging markets, portfolio analysis, brand and commercial strategy, and pricing and market access through an extensive network of C-level clients across a broad range of global organisations.
David has spent time as Vice President in the Life Sciences Practice of CRA, Senior Principal at IMSCG and Managing Partner at Catenion.
Before becoming a management consultant, David spent several years in the pharmaceutical industry, holding positions of increasing responsibility at SmithKline Beecham, GlaxoSmithKline and Etiologics.
A geneticist by background, David graduated first from Strathclyde University, studied for a PhD at Glasgow University and then spent several years as a research fellow at the University of Leeds.
25yr sectorexperience PhD 7 Board Seats 6 Portfolio Companies
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BOARD PROFILE
BRENDA KING MBE
Brenda King is Chief Executive of African & Caribbean Diversity, a post that she has maintained since 2003. She is also a member of the Third Sector Forum that advises the Government on Social Mobility and advises universities on their Widening Participation initiatives.
Brenda has received national recognition for her pioneering work with the Afro-Caribbean communities with a MBE awarded by the Queen in 2004 and an honorary degree from her alma mater Warwick University in 2009.
Brenda is a UK representative on the Brussels-based European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) which is a consultative body that gives representatives of Europe’s socio-occupational interest groups, and others, a formal platform to express their points of views on EU issues. Its opinions are forwarded to the larger institutions – the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament. Between 2006 and 2008, she was President of the EESC’s specialized section in employment, social affairs and citizenship which focused on key themes such as job growth and quality employment, lifelong learning, training and productivity and youth unemployment.
Brenda worked at the Royal Mail Group for nearly 15 years, leading many cultural change programmes including the ownership of Total Quality by frontline staff and the design and development of Business Process Improvement within the company. She was technical adviser to overseas administrations on postal sector reform.
Brenda was educated at Harrison College, Barbados, has a BSc in Statistics and Computing from University College London and a MSc in Management Science and Operational Research from Warwick University.
MSc in Operational Research
Member of various EU committees
CEO of African Caribbean Diversity Charity
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BOARD PROFILE
DR WES HARRY
Wes is a trusted advisor to leading government agencies in the Gulf and Far East.
Wes has guided major corporates, government and government agencies (including Sovereign Wealth Funds) to improve organizing and managing people. He has helped institutions to create better links between education and employment- especially to support the development of Human Capital.
Wes has also been widely published, academic books and contributing to journals on topics such as Managing across Cultures, Managing People in Asia, Sustainability and HRM, and CSR and Business ethics. He is a Visiting Professor at the University of Chester and an Honorary Visiting Fellow at Cass Business School.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Emirates Airlines
Expert in Human Resource Management
Fellow of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Human capital Director for the Mohammed Bin Rashid
Al-Maktoum Foundation
