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Inaugural Speech delivered at the Pre Convention Research Consortium of 54th National Convention of Indian Institution of Industrial Engineering at NIMHANS Centre, Bangalore on Oct 29, 2012

Research Design & Methodology:

Embedding Creativity and Innovation by Dr.Parasuram Balasubramanian, CEO, Theme Work Analytics, Bangalore, India, 560041

DearProfessors,Students,industryexecutivesandFellowResearchers:

Goodmorning.

Weallknowwhatittakestoattendanearlymorningsession.Ipresumewehavemissedsomeofthemorarrivedlateforasessionortwoinourcollegedays.CanIrecallonesuchexperienceofabrightstudent?

Onedayhecamelatetothestatisticsclassbyabouttenminutesandnoticedthattheprofessorhadalreadywrittenthedetailsoftwoproblemsontheblackboard.Assumingthatthesearehomeworkassignedalready,hecopiedthemdiligentlyintohisnotebookandworkedonthemathomeoverthenextfewweeks;Hewassomewhatdisturbedthatittookhimsolongtosolvethem;butequallydismayedwhentheprofessortooksixweekstorevert.

Buttheprofessorseemedtobeexcitedashereturnedtheassignmentsheet.Hecouldnotbelievethatthetwolong‐standingunsolvedproblemshavebeencrackednow!Hetooksomuchtimebecauseheneededtoverifythattheproofgivenwascorrect.

Nowitwasthestudent’sturntobeastonished.Whatheperceivedasahomeassignmentwasindeedasetofunsolvedproblemssofarandhehasfoundthesolution.Andthisstoryhasahappyendingtoo.Sixmonthslater,hisprofessoraskedhimtosubmitthesesolutionsashisdoctoralthesis!

Doweknowwhothisstudentwas?YesitwasGeorgeBDantzig,whoisthefatheroftheSimplexMethodthatsolvestheLinearProgrammingproblem.

Idon’tknowhowmanyofuswouldbethisbrilliantorlucky.ButwhenInarratedthisstoryinaclass,manyyearsago,thestudentstriedtoconvincemethatthereisahighcorrelationbetweencominglatetoclassandgettingcreativesparks.HoweverIventuredtosuggestthattheproblemsweresolvedbecausethestudentdidnotknowthattheywereunsolved

problems.Thenthereisnofearoffailure.Incidentally,SirThomasAlvaEdisonwasdeaffromayoungageanditdidn’tseemtomattersinceheistheinventorofphonographandthousandotherinnovations.

Thesamesetofstudentsofmine,brightastheyare,statedthathighachieverslikeMichaelDell,BillGates,SteveJobsandevenourAzimPremjiarecollegedropouts.Theyconstruedthattheirsamplesizewasadequateandunbiased.Thoroughlyconvincedbythislogic,buttoolatetodropoutfromcollege,Iresignedfromcollegeinstead.Igaveupmyteachingpositionandtookupanindustryjob.Astheysaytherestishistory.

ButasagraduatestudentatPurdue,Iwassearchingforathesistopicforaboutayear.Iwasgoodattheorybuthadastrongpreferenceforsolvingpracticalproblems.MyguideaskedmetolookintotheGoalProgrammingmodelasitistheearlieravatarofmulticriteriadecisionmaking(MCDM),inwhichIhadastronginterest.IspentmorethansixmonthsinmyresearchandfoundoutthatitisaspecialcaseofLinearProgramming;hencecanbesolvedusinganyLPalgorithmsuchastheSimplexMethod.ThenIdecidedthatthereisnotmuchIcanaddandmovedontoothertopics.

Afriendandcostudent,namedJeffArthur,heardaboutgoalprogrammingandshowedinteresttostudyitfurther.Hewasabletoidentifythespecialstructure,whichisnativetoallGoalProgrammingproblems.HeworkedonittocomeupwithanewalgorithmcalledPartitioningAlgorithmforGoalProgramming(PAGP)anddemonstrateditssuperiorityoverregularsimplexmethod.Needlesstosaythatmyprofessorwasdelightedandencouragedhimtowritehisthesis.Hegraduated

withadoctoratewithinafewmonths;alsoalmostoneyearbeforeIcould!

Therewereatleastthreelessonsinitforme.Thatnottogiveuponatopictoosoon.Andneverbefixatedontheoryversespracticeorientedthesis.Begoodenoughtotacklebothandlatchontoanygoodandearlyopportunity.IfurtherrealizedthatanytopicisgoodenoughforPh.D.aslongasitcanmakeasignificantimpactontheoryorpractice.SincethenIjudgeanyresearcheffortnotbyitsmathematicalelegance,howhardthisproblemhasbeen,norhownovelthesolutionis.Therelevantquestiontoaskis“Doesitmakeasignificantimpact?“ontheoryorpractice.

ThenwatchoutfortheChoiceoftoolsused.Thiscanbearealdangerzone.Forexample,Regressionanalysisisapowerfultoolthathelpsustofindthesignificantfactorsthatrelatetoanyevent,provided,wecanenumerateexhaustivelyallthefactorsapriori,showthattheyareindependentandlocateunbiasedandcomprehensivedatasets.

Thisisatallorderbyitself.Eventhenastrongcorrelationdoesnotprovecauseeffectrelationship.Forthatmatternoneofthetoolsweuse,Optimization,simulationetccanbeavalidatorofcauseandeffectrelationshipbetweentwovariablesobserved.

Manyaproductivityanalysisdoneinshopfloorormanpowerintensiveserviceindustrieshavesufferedfromincorrectuseofthistoolaspractitionerscanvouchforit.ThemostfamousandrecentofsuchfailuresistheGaussianCopulaModelusedinpricingderivativeproductsinthefinancialservicesworldthatleadtotheglobalrecessionof2008.Weareyettorecoverfromthis.

Whatwerethetwomajorissueshere?Firstthatthedatasetusedtovalidatethemodelcontaineddatapointsforatenyearperiodwhentherealestatepricesweregoingupanduponly.Secondlythestrongcorrelationfoundwasconstruedasaproofforproductpricing.

Itismybeliefthatifyousearchwithcertainpreliminarynotionstheybecomesopreemptivethatyoufindonlythoseexamplesthatfitintoyourtheory.Anythingcontrarydoesnotappearinyourradareasilyorgetsdiscardedasanoutlier.Weeasilybecomevictimsofourownbeliefs.

Letussayyouhavetooptimizetheinventoryinadepartmentalstore.ThenormalpracticeistodoaFSNanalysiscoupledwithABCanalysis(sothatyoupaymoreattentiontothoseproductsthatcontributemoretoyourprofit)andweedoutsomeandstockmoreoftheprofitableandfastmovingitems.Ireckonthereisaflawinthisanalysis.Whatifcertainitemswouldsellmoreormovefasterifthepackagesizewasdifferentorpricewasmorecompetitive?Unfortunatelythatinformationisnoteasytoobtainandthatthoughtdoesnotoccureasily.Thecontrarynotiondoesnotstrikesoon.

Itiscommonknowledgethatmanystudiesareundertakenwherestudyobjectiveshavebeendefinedwithnarrowboundaries;sonarrowthattheymissoutononeofthefundamentalprinciplesofnaturethatforeveryactionthereisanequalandoppositereaction;thatwhetheritismatterorenergytherehastobeaequilibriumatthesystemlevel;thataccountingentriesontheassetsideneedtotallywiththeentriesontheliabilitiessideintotality.Weoftenclaimthatourbriefiscomprehensive.Howcanwethenembarkonastudyofexpensecontrolorcostminimizationwithoutconsideringitsimpactonrevenuegeneration?Canweassignpeopletotasksbasedonskillstooptimizetheirutilizationwithoutanyreferencetotheirindividualpreferencesorneeds?

ThefinalissueIwishtotouchontodayisthestickinessthatweexhibit.Ourlikesanddislikes,preferencesandhatesarerathertoostrongandtooheavilypronounced.Itismorethan30yearssincetheworldeconomyswitchedgearsfrombeingpredominantlyindustrialtoserviceorientation.Todaymanufacturingaccountsforlessthan25%ofGDPoremploymentcomparedto70%fortheservicessectorineverydevelopedcountryintheworld.(USAGDPdistributionis1%,19%,and80%foragriculture,manufacturingandservicesrespectively.Itscorrespondinglabourdistributionis1%,20%,and79%)(WorldGDP6%,31%and62%Labour37%,21%,42%)Developingcountriestooareexhibitingsimilartrends.ItissoinChina(GDP10%,46%,43%Labour38%,28%,34%))andinIndia(GDP17%,26%,56%Labour52%,14%,34%)),thetwolargestemergingmarketsof21stcentury.

AsindustrialEngineeringprofessionalswearethechampionsofqualityandproductivityineveryenterprise.Beitthestudyofergonomicstodesignmachinerythatgotoreducehumaneffortorenhancehumancomfort,TheshopfloorproductionplanningandcontrolinitiativesorOperationsResearchstudiestoextractmorejuiceoutofanygivensystem,ourprimaryendevouristoimprovequalityandproductivityandhencevalue.BeittheMachine,Material,ManorMoney,forallfactorsofproduction,wetookcustodyoftheirefficiencyandeffectiveutilization.Wearethevalueengineerswhobridgethetechnicaladvancementsinlaboratorieswiththeneedsofcustomersinmassmarkets.

WeknowthatwhetherafirmisinmanufacturingsectororinServices,ithastodealwithsimilarfactorsofproduction,focusonsimilarchallengesofqualityandproductivityandisamenabletosimilarinventory,logistics,capacityplanning,SCM,schedulingandresourceoptimizationconceptsandtools.Yetourinertiainembracingtheservicessectorwithinthefold

oftraditionalIE,ourhesitationinchangingthenameofourprofessiontobeinclusive,ourreluctancetospendresearcheffortsonsignificantmanmanagementissuesoftheservicessectorarealltooembarrassing.FinancialServices,HealthcareDelivery,Hospitality,Hotels,Entertainment,SoftwareServices,EducationandGovernmentServicesareallmajorsegmentsoftheservicessectorandaregrowingatamuchhigherpacethanmanufacturing;yetwelagfarbehindotherprofessionalsinextendingourreachandapplyingourtoolsetstotheservicessector.Idon’tknowwhy.

Don’tyouthinkthatweoughttobestudyingthehumanmotivationalfactorsthatimpingeheavilyonthequalityofservicesoffered?Shouldn’tthecapabilitytolearnonone’sowninitiativeandhenceimproveproductivitycontinuouslyinservicesfunctionsbesubjecttointensestudybyus?Thefactoryfloorcalledfortransferringmoretasksfromthehumanbeingtothemachinesothatconsistencyofqualitycanbeenhanced.Weachievedthisgoalofautomationverysuccessfully.Hasn’tthetimecometoturnitaroundanddevicemachinerythatmakehumanbeingperformtheirserviceswithhigherlevelofconsistencyandtogreatercustomerdelight?

MachineandMaterialfocusoftraditionalIEkeptproductivityandqualityenhancementasourprimarygoals.Aswestretchtoincludetheservicessector,weneedtoaddfairnessandpreservationastwomajorcriteriaforoptimizationofsystemsthatwedealwith.Weprefertobegivenafairandequalopportunity.Fairnessisdealings,allocation;selectionetcisanaturalexpectationofallhumanbeings.Theotherthreefactorsofproduction,machinery,materialsandmoneyhavenosuchrequirement.Furthermachineryuponusagecanbedepreciated;materialsconsumedandmoneyspentanddiscountedbuthumanbeingslookforpreservationandevenenrichmentwithexperience.Thisisasignificantdifferentiator

anditopensupavastnewarenaofresearchforus.Selectingpatientsforclinicaltrials,prioritizingvaccinedistributioninalimitedavailabilityscenario,selectingpassengersforrandomsearchinanairport,allocationofstafftoavailableprojectsinasoftwareservicesfirmetcaresomeexamplesforfairnesscriteria.Designingsocialsecurityforall,healthcareinsurancefortheelderly,pensionsystemetalcallforlongevityfocusimplyingthatthepopulacehastolivehealthytolivelong.

Shouldwenotexploittoday’sscientificadvancesintechnologiessuchasmachinelearning,locationawareness,dynamicstatusupdateandpersonalauthenticationbyembeddingtheminourproductsandprocessessothatweremainrelevantastheleadersofquality,productivityandvalueinanever‐changingworld?Canwebeleftbehindinjudiciousselectionanduseofappropriatedevelopmentswherevertheycouldserveourprimarypurpose?Ibelievethatwhetheritisagriculture,manufacturingorserviceswehavethepotentialtomakesignificantcontributiontoanysectoroftheeconomy.Wehoweverneedtoputourheartstothisandlaytorestourfearsandmisgivings.

Ileaveyouwiththesethoughtsandwithbestwishesforyourcontinuedlearningandknowledgesharing.Thankyou.