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Making Use of Reliability Statistics
Fred Schenkelberg
Everything Varies
Decisions to Make
Questions to Answer
Experiments to Analyze
Convincing Evidence
How do you do treat data?
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
Fun with Plotting
Given Some Data
Rural MaleRural FemaleUrban MaleUrban Female
Rural MaleRural FemaleUrban MaleUrban Female
Rural MaleRural FemaleUrban MaleUrban Female
Rural MaleRural FemaleUrban MaleUrban Female
Rural MaleRural FemaleUrban MaleUrban Female
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
0 20 40 60 80 100
Death Rates in Virginia - 1940
Dot Plot
A B C D E F G H
25
1020
50100Box Plot
Histogram 1990 - 2010 California Temperatures (°C)
Celisus
Density
-10 0 10 20 30 40
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Q-Q Plot
0 5 10 15
05
1015
x
qchi
sq(p
poin
ts(x
), df
= 4
)
Basic View of Dataset 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
020
040
060
0
x
020
4060
8010
0
x
0 50 100 150
0.0
0.01
00.
020
Quantiles of Standard Normal
x
-2 0 2
020
4060
8010
0
Scatter or Run Plot
0 10 20 30 40 50
-2-1
01
2
Simple Use of Color In a Plot
Just a Whisper of a Label
Scatter Plots in Matrix
Sepal.Length
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
2.02.53.03.54.0
Sepal.Width
Petal.Length
12
34
56
7
4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5
0.51.01.52.02.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Petal.Width
Edgar Anderson's Iris Data
With the right tool this is easy
FIELD DATA Let’s explore some data
3 Months of Field Data Concentrator Field Data 2p Weibull vs WeiBayes
Folio1\Concentrator 1: m=1.5000, s=0.1000, Rb=2.1122, h=16.4576, Z=0.999817465905239Folio1\Concentrator: b=2.9361, h=9.0133, Z=0.999817465905239
T ime, (t)
Un
relia
bili
ty,
F(t
)
0 . 100 10.0001.0000.100
0.500
1.000
5.000
10.000
50.000
90.000
99.000
0.100
x 137
x 140
x 3
x 137
x 140
x 3
Probability-W eibull
Folio1\ConcentratorW eibull-2PMLE RRM MED FMF=280/S=38062
Data PointsProbability Line
Folio1\Concentrator 1W eibull-Bayesian-2PMLE MED MED BSNF=280/S=38062
Data PointsProbability Line
Fred Schenke lbergConsult ing8/21/200710:12:25 AM
8 Months by System
1.00 100.0010.000.01
0.05
0.10
0.50
1.00
5.00
10.00
50.00
90.00
99.00
0.01
ReliaSoft's Weibull++ 6.0 - www.Weibull.com
Probability - Weibull
Time, (t)
Unr
elia
bilit
y, F
(t)
9/30/2005 10:06Fred Schenkelberg ConsultingFred Schenkelberg
WeibullCompressor
W2 RRX - RRM MEDF=849 / S=153493
β1=2.2557, η1=50.7130, ρ=0.9999
Plastics
W2 RRX - RRM MEDF=1314 / S=153028
β2=1.3281, η2=162.3354, ρ=0.9994
Sieve
W2 RRX - RRM MEDF=360 / S=143343
β3=2.0955, η3=89.5413, ρ=0.9998
Solenoid
W2 RRX - RRM MEDF=550 / S=153792
β4=2.4939, η4=48.1558, ρ=0.9999
System
W2 RRX - RRM MEDF=29930 / S=311217CB[FM]@90.00%2-Sided-B [T2]
β5=1.5656, η5=46.3456, ρ=0.9992
Time to Repair Data ReliaSoft W eibull++ 7 - www.Re liaSoft. com
Probability - Lognormal
µ =−1 .4 6 2 5 , σ= 1 .6 5 0 8 , ρ= 0 .9 6 1 1
T ime, (t)
Un
relia
bili
ty,
F(t
)
0 . 010 100.0000.100 1.000 10.0000.010
0.0500.100
0.500
1.000
5.000
10.000
50.000
99.990
0.010
Probability-Lognormal
Line 4 Depa lle t izer Single Serving MTTRLognormal-2PRRX SRM MED FMF=1245/S=0
Data PointsProbability Line
Fred Schenke lbergConsult ing11/23/20072:19:26 PM
Count of Failures over Cut
Depth
DEPTH CUT
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Frac
tion
Failin
g
Thu May 11 17:05:37 PDT 2006
RSS DEPTH CUT data Nonparametric CDF Estimate
with Nonparametric pointwise 95% Confidence Bands
Better Questions
Questions?
EXPERIMENTS Asking better questions
Setting Priorities
R t( ) = e−tη( )β
Comparison (hypothesis test)
1 2-1
01
23
45
group
extra
Welch Two Sample t-test data: extra by group t = -1.8608, df = 17.776, p-value = 0.07939 alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0 95 percent confidence interval: -3.3654832 0.2054832 sample estimates: mean in group 1 mean in group 2 0.75 2.33
Regression
Average Children Height in centimeters versus Age in Months
Regression
height = 0.635 age + 64.928
Response Surface
Design of Experiments
Questions?
Sample Size? Just how many do we need?
Minimum Samples n = ln 1−C( )
m ln R( )
Talk about the Risk
Options with Limited Samples
How do you extract value from limited samples?
Next Steps on Your Journey 1. Gather failure data 2. Plot the data 3. Ask questions 4. Embrace Statistics 5. Enjoy!
DESIGNING EXPERIMENTS
Consider objectives and possible outcomes
What is the Objective?
What are the possible
outcomes?
What is the decision point?
Questions?
FINDING VALUE
www.fmsreliability.com/accendo/join-accendo-reliability/
www.fmsreliability.com [email protected] (408) 710-8248