Escaping a Low-Level Equilibrium

of Educational Quality

Caine RollestonUKFIET Conference, Oxford, 15 Sept

2015

Young Lives longitudinal survey of children, households & communities every 3 years since 2002

• 12,000 children in two cohorts (now aged 13 & 19)

• Ethiopia, India, Peru, Vietnam• 20 sentinel sites in each country• Tested in maths at each round with common

items• Primary school surveys implemented since

2010• Secondary school surveys from 2016

Allows comparison of • Learning levels• Learning trajectories• Change over time between cohorts

YOUNG LIVES STUDY

• At age 12 in 2013 enrolment: Ethiopia 95% India (AP) 97% Vietnam 98% Peru 99%• But learning gaps very wide, especially at age 15

ALL 4 COUNTRIES NOW HAVE HIGH ENROLMENT, BUT VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

Peru’s per capita income 3x higher than Vietnam (similar to India) but mean Reading scores equal to 5th percentile in VietnamBUT robust improvements in Peru from low basePeru and India’s scores (with SA) the most unequal in PISA

PISA COMPARISONReading Maths

Outcomes at 15 result of learning trajectories

Between surveys show a consistent ordering of countries

SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS

CROSS-COUNTRY GAPS SET TO WIDEN FURTHER?1. IMPROVING TEST SCORES, MIXED PATTERNS OF

EQUITYPeru Vietnam

Weaker improvements for disadvantaged in Peru- similar patterns in Grade 2 national tests (ECE) and LLECE

Children aged 12 in 2006 and 2013

2. DECLINING TEST SCORES, WIDENING INEQUALITY

India (AP) EthiopiaChildren aged 12 in 2006 and 2013

Also: ASER (India), NLA(Ethiopia) show decline since early 2000s

TRANSITION FROM MASS ACCESS TO MASS LEARNING: QUANTITY-QUALITY TRADE-

OFF• During rapid expansion, countries face a trade-off between

quantity and quality(1) Growth in resources does not keep pace with enrolments(2) Access expands to more marginalised populations, so that

average pupil backgrounds decline• May lead to static or declining average learning outcomes

But…(3) Partly offset by economic growth, demographic changeAnd, following universal access,• Inputs should recover & begin to increase• Average pupil backgrounds stop declining & begin to recover

Net primary enrolment ratios

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Ethiopia India Peru Viet Nam

Per c

ent

ENROLMENTS GROWING FAST IN ETHIOPIA BUT STABLE SINCE 2006 OR EARLIER ELSEWHERE

Government Spending Per Pupil - Primary (PPP) Constant International Dollars (2011)

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20130

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EthiopiaIndiaPeruVietnam

REAL SPENDING PER PUPIL INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN VIETNAM AND PERU BUT NOT IN INDIA (UNTIL RTE)

• Trade-off in Ethiopia does likely explain decline (temporary provided adequate reforms towards mass-orientation?)

• No apparent trade-off in Vietnam or Peru• Vietnam high levels of effectiveness, efficiency, equity (policy focus on mass-

orientation, minimum standards)• BUT Highly unequal improvements in Peru may lead to a longer-term LLE for

disadvantaged pupils (inequity) • Analysis of differential school effectiveness in Peru shows disadvantaged

pupils benefit less from school quality (Glewwe et al. 2014) • But generalised decline & LLE in India is more puzzling

- Weak increases in resources in India, despite stable enrolments and economic growth - Govt spending per pupil as % of GDP/capita (2013) low at 7% compared to 25% in Vietnam (falling in % terms - was 12% in 1998)

(2) BUT • poor system effectiveness (closer to Ethiopia) major concern• Poor efficiency/equity may limit the learning gains from rising inputs• Secondary school surveys to examine these issues from 2016

LOW-LEVEL EQUILIBRIUM