The Fork in the RoadHow accelerating change is remaking consumer insights and

emphasizing iteration or anticipation.

Robert MoranBRUNSWICK INSIGHT

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@robertpmoran

#wf13

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Market Research The process and corporate function through which

larger businesses identify customer needs, analyze customer feedback and test products, pricing and promotions.

Developed alongside the mass market and advertising in the post-war years.

$33.5 Billion USD Global Industry

$11.2 Billion USD Industry in the United States

Reports to CMO

Follows a “think. do.” model of research, analysis, and strategic recommendation

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Roaring Turbulence

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The problem of accelerating,

discontinuous change.

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Metabolic Rate of Capitalism Quickening

Source: National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” Report

Source: Richard Foster, Yalehttp://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf

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The 10Ds of Destruction and Rebirth

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The Acceleration Challenge to Market Research:

Snapshot in Time & the Driver’s Side Window

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22 Plausible Futures Scenarios

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• Mobile surveys• Location-based

research• Augmented

Reality• “Lifestreaming”

• Online surveys• Prompted by

declining telephone survey participation rates and onlinetechnology

• Data becomes abundant and inexpensive

• Shift to “convenience samples”

• Face to Face surveys

Face to Face Telephone1920-1950

• Telephone surveys

• Vertically integrated data collection systems

Online Geomobile1950-2000

2000-

Data Collection—Asking (Survey)Behavioral

• Move away from the survey instrument as the main research vehicle

• Dramatic shift from Intrusive, interrogatory research, to passive, listening-based research

• Social media research

• “Listening posts”

• MROCS• Text analytics• “Rateocracy”

2008-

Listening Neurological

• Track neurological response

• fMRI • Eye-tracking

and other biological response monitoring

• CRM software• Big data• Experimental

marketing

• Geotracking• Clickstreams

ObservationalUGC

• Collaborative co-creation

• User-generated content (UGC)

• Insights communities (MROCs) will dominate

• Creation of “design communities”

Co-Creative

• Focus shifts from mapping current opinion to anticipating future behaviors and alternative futures

• Mass simulation gaming*

• MROC Delphi panels*• Strategic Foresight• Agent-based

computational modeling

• Predictive markets

Anticipatory

Anticipatory

2011

2010 2012

2012

The Forecast

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Socially Driven Scenarios

Technology Driven Scenarios

Economically Driven Scenarios

The Incredible Shrinking Survey

Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence

Do Not DisturbRapid In-Market Experimentation

Lilliput

Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency

What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth

Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed

From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders

Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation

Epidemiology

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Fast Fashion (or Lean Startup)

Do. Think.Speed to MarketRapid Iteration

Products as Real-Time ExperimentsAnalysis of Sales Data

Futurist

Think. Do.Anticipate Futures

Analysis of S.T.E.E.P. Factors

or

Solving for AccelerationA choice between two models.

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Market Research and the “Think. Do.” Model

Think.Do.

Do.Think.

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RIMEing: Rapid In Market Experimentation

Fast, inexpensive and fashionable clothing

in a tight feedback loop.

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Big Changes on the Horizon

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

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…and a different society.

http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf

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Navigating Change:

Enoughness

Collaborative Consumption

Prosumers

Thank You

Follow me on Twitter at @robertpmoran