Unlocking Australia's Renewable Energy Future

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  1. 1. Unlocking Australias renewable energy future Tony Meehan, Executive Manager, Regulation NEM Future Forum 2017, 31 October 2017 #NEMFF17
  2. 2. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20172 Backbone of Australias Electricity System TransGrid is the operator and manager of the NSW transmission network NSW is the largest region in the National Electricity Market NSW Centre of the NEM connecting QLD and VIC 32% of Australias population 34% of energy consumed in the NEM
  3. 3. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20173 Disruption at the source of energy NEM existing generation capacity mix Coal 49% CCGT 5% OCGT 14% Gas other 5% Solar* 0.58% Wind 9% Water 17% Biomass 1% Other 0.30% Coal CCGT OCGT Gas other Solar* Wind Water Biomass Other
  4. 4. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20174 Dramatic change as generation retires Source: AEC
  5. 5. 1 3 2 Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 2017 Reducing emissions Transmission networks are integral to reducing emissions in the electricity sector by transporting energy between areas with abundant renewable resources and areas where electricity is used. Affordability Transmission networks deliver affordability for consumers as the platform on which the competitive wholesale electricity market operates. Energy security Transmission networks maintain energy security through core expertise in power system security and stability, and a thorough understanding of the planning and operation of the power system. 5 Role of transmission in the future energy system
  6. 6. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20176 Significant impact for consumers Price impact of expanding renewables, and coal-plant closures Source: Professor Ross Garnaut 550MW Topaz Solar Farm in California
  7. 7. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20177 Cost of renewable generation is going down PV module prices and learning curve calculation The cost of wind turbine continues to fall Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Paul Maycock, company filings Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data by contract signing date
  8. 8. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20178 Predicted future generation in the NEM Source: ENA Roadmap 2017
  9. 9. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 20179 The transition to large-scale renewable sources of energy will be enabled by transmission A trajectory towards 100% renewable generation is feasible, and the technical challenges associated with this transformation can be met in a way that is affordable for consumers. Connection of large-scale renewable generation in areas with abundant renewable resources could be enabled by extension of the transmission network to those areas.
  10. 10. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 201710 A strategic approach is required A strategic approach to identifying renewable zones at lowest cost, considering the best renewable resources and compatible land use. Criteria for consideration: Solar PV resource Wind resource Site elevation Site slope Parcel size Land tenure Land use Land cover Protected areas Prohibited areas
  11. 11. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 201711 Study of new energy zones solar resources A significant amount of solar resource exists within the study area. In order to provide efficient and effective renewable zones, solar generation should be located near to the wind resource. Approximately 40GW of solar has been identified between Yass and Balranald and another 20GW between Balranald and Casterton.
  12. 12. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 201712 Developing an integrated grid plan Source: TransGrids Transmission Annual Planning Report 2017 Finkel recommendation 5.1 By mid-2018, the Australian Energy Market Operator, supported by transmission network service providers and relevant stakeholders, should develop an integrated grid plan to facilitate the efficient development and connection of renewable energy zones across the National Electricity Market. - Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market
  13. 13. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 201713 A successful transition Connection of large-scale renewable generation Sharing of geographically diverse resources New ancillary services to manage system stability Regulatory framework to evolve to support the system
  14. 14. Unlocking Australia's renewable energy future | October 201714 /