Obe 100415 Marginal Field Fund R1

OriginBusiness Engineering

Fallow Field FundInvestment opportunities in Dutch Marginal Fields

2010 | © Origin Business Engineering B.V. 2

Origin

A Marginal Field

Marginal Field:

“A field that may not produce enough net income to make it worth developing at a given time; should technical or economic conditions change, the field may become commercial”‐Oil & Gas Fiscal Glossary.


Origin

Marginal Field Size - Gas» Gas reserves are concentrated in a very small number of giant accumulations:

Some 190 giant reservoirs account for 57% of initial global gas reserves.

Slightly fewer than 25,000 small fields hold only 28% of world reserves; 15% are in “marginal” fields with less than 10 bcm.

About 80% of these small reservoirs are in North America. In Western Europe, most marginal fields are in the United Kingdom.

In North America, an extensive network infrastructure and open access make commercial exploitation of marginal fields possible, provided the gas price is high enough.

New offshore infrastructure development may make fields now considered “marginal” economic in the North Sea.

Global Stranded Gas Potential (tcm, as of 1 January 2000)Associated gas 12Deep offshore 8Marginal fields 5

Remote fields 24‐40Total 49‐65


Origin

Technology as enabler for marginal field development

» Simplicity, Standardization, Sharing, Speed;

» Southern North Sea: SNS Satellite Platform evolution last 10 years

Conventional jackets> $45mln/platform

typically

Mid 1990’s 2000 2005

Standardized scale down approachUp to $30mln

/platform (including power cable)

“Monotower”<< $ 15mln per platform


Origin

Investment strategy» Low risk venues

Rule of law under stable democracy, fiscal stability;

Proven and prolific hydrocarbon basins;

Accessible infrastructure and markets;

Competitive advantage;

» Portfolio approach spreads risk for non producing wells;

» Marginal fields provide an excellent investment opportunity stimulated by regulators;

» The NetherlandsTop quartile fiscal regime ‐ Royalty 0%, tax 50%, depreciation‐at‐will for 2009, 2010, 2011;

Strong government support ‐ Government participates as 40% or 50% working interest partner;

Extensive infrastructure – Limited investment required, shallow water, <40m;

Numerous undeveloped discoveries ‐ 75 offshore pools, 3.5 Tcf reserves, estimated country prospective undiscovered resources 5.5 –13.4 Tcfhigh commercial exploration success rate >60%;


Origin

Dutch Fallow fields – Potentially to become marginal development opportunities

Onshore Field Licence type

Beerta Production licence

Donkerbroek Production licence

Exloo Production licence

Hollum‐Ameland Production licence

Kijkduin‐Zee Production licence

Kerkwijk Exploration licence

Lekkerkerk Production licence

Nes‐Noord Production licence

Nieuweschans Production licence

Oppenhuizen Exploration licence

Terschelling‐Noord Production licence (applied for)

Terschelling‐West Open area

Ternaard Production licence

Vlagtwedde Production licence

Zevenhuizen Production licence

Offshore Field Licence type

B17‐FA Production licence (applied for)

E12‐LE Open area (applied for)

E12‐TE Open area (applied for)

F14‐A Exploration licence

F17‐FA Exploration licence

F17‐FB Exploration licence

F18‐FA Exploration licence

K04A‐Z Production licence

K18‐FB Production licence

L01‐FB Exploration licence

L04‐D Production licence

L07‐F_L07‐FN Production licence

L10‐19 Production licence

L10‐6 Production licence

L11‐1_L11‐7 Production licence

L12‐FA Production licence

L12‐FD Production licence

L14‐6 Open area

L16‐FA Production licence

M11‐FA Exploration licence

P01‐FA Exploration licence

P01‐FB Exploration licence

P02‐1 Exploration licence

P02‐5 Exploration licence

P02‐E Exploration licence

Q07‐FA Exploration licence

Q13‐FB Exploration licence

Q13‐FC Exploration licenceSource: http://www.nlog.nl/en/reserves/reserves/stranded.html


Origin

Market Dynamics – Dutch Marginal fields» Development of marginal fields – Three drivers:

High oil price;

Reduced development and production costs;

Access to marginal opportunities which are part of larger concessions owned by one of the oil majors;

» Dutch fiscal and licensing system is critical, stability and predictability fiscal system vital;

» Marginal and fallow field developers need access to opportunities, recycle fallow fields and acreage (“use it or lose it”);

» Access to capital is scarce and expensive, especially for small companies like Cirrus;

» Only small companies like Cirrus, Wintershall, SES are willing to pursue fallow/marginal fields because of absent large overhead costs of the oil majors and more efficient ways of working;

» Stimulate small field (satellite) developments whilst infrastructure is in place but ageing;Removal of SPS for small fields;

Depreciation at will for small fields; early cash flow (critical for small companies like Cirrus).

» Current cyclical low provides good investment opportunities.


Origin

Competitive Landscape» Southern North Sea Basin;

» Mature development area ‐> Focus on fallow and marginal fields;

» Relatively small number of competitors for marginal gas fields;

» Oil Majors not to invest due to high cost level of their organizations;

» Strong stimulus packages from regulatory arm;


Origin

Oil Gas Price Deck Q1 2010

Year Oil ($/Bbl)

WTI Gas ($/MMBtu)

2010 (Rem) 56.41 4.52

2011 60.65 5.12

2012 63.15 5.53

2013 64.12 5.71

2014 64.45 5.76

2015 0.4% 0.5%

1st Quarter 2010 Price Survey: Mean of 43 Participating Banks – Base Case

Current Oil Pricing – Base Case ($/Bbl)

Current Gas Pricing – Base Case ($/MMBtu)


Origin

Production license holders recent changesDutch Territoir (onshore)

Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 Verleend Einde Staats courant Jaar verleend Jaar Einde

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Drenthe II 1888 18‐7‐2007 140 2007

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Andel III 217 18‐11‐2008 30‐12‐2038 234 2008 2038

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Drenthe III 389 18‐7‐2007 140 2007

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Drenthe IV 7 18‐7‐2007 140 2007

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Papekop 63 8‐6‐2006 19‐7‐2031 113 2006 2031

Smart Energy Solutions B.V. Oosterwolde 4 7‐12‐2006 17‐1‐2017 242 2006 2017

TAQA Piek Gas B.V. Alkmaar 12 23‐12‐2006 232 2006

TAQA Onshore B.V. Bergen II 221 23‐12‐2006 232 2006

TAQA Onshore B.V. Dyas B.V. Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V. Bergermeer 19 23‐12‐2006 232 2006


Origin

Exploration license holdersDutch Territoir (onshore)

Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 In werking Einde Staats courant

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Andel IV 85 10‐6‐2006 21‐3‐2010 113

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Oosterwolde 127 20‐4‐2007 31‐5‐2012 83

Northern Petroleum Nederland B.V. Utrecht 1152 26‐4‐2007 6‐6‐2012 85


Origin

Production Licenses recent changesDutch Continental Shelf (offshore)

Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 In werking Einde

Staatscourant

Jaar in werking Jaar Einde

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. L12a 119 25‐9‐2008 14‐3‐2030 189 2008 2030

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. L12b & L15b 92 6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155 2008 2030

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. L12d 225 25‐9‐2008 14‐3‐2030 189 2008 2030

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. B L12c 30 6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155 2008 2030

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. B L15d 62 6‐8‐2008 12‐3‐2030 155 2008 2030

Wintershall Noordzee B.V. E15b 21 20‐2‐2008 1‐4‐2033 38 2008 2033

Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. M01a 213 28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2022 128 2007 2022

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E16a 29 29‐6‐2007 9‐8‐2021 128 2007 2021

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E17a & E17b 114 28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2021 128 2007 2021

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. F03b 335 13‐12‐2007 9‐9‐2022 245 2007 2022

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. K18a 36 15‐3‐2007 9‐5‐2023 57 2007 2023

Venture Production Nederland B.V. F03a 62 13‐12‐2007 9‐9‐2022 245 2007 2022

Wintershall Noordzee B.V. K18b 155 15‐3‐2007 9‐5‐2023 57 2007 2023

Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V. Q13a 30 28‐11‐2006 28‐12‐2021 231 2006 2021

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. D G14 & G17b 441 15‐12‐2006 14‐12‐2019 248 2006 2019

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G17a 237 19‐7‐2006 14‐12‐2019 143 2006 2019

Grove Energy Ltd. P08a 26 21‐10‐2006 1‐12‐2021 214 2006 2021

Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12a 195 1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129 2005 2025

Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12d 33 1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129 2005 2025

Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A18a 229 1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129 2005 2025

Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A18c 47 1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 125 2005 2025

Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. B10c & B13a 252 1‐7‐2005 11‐8‐2025 129 2005 2025

GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. K03c 32 26‐11‐2005 6‐1‐2021 233 2005 2021

Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V. P10a 5 31‐5‐2005 11‐7‐2020 102 2005 2020


Origin

Exploration Licenses recent changesDutch Continental Shelf (offshore)

Vergunninghouder Vergunning km2 In werking EindeStaatscourant Opm. Jaar start Jaar Stop

Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V Q10b 367 6‐8‐2008 8‐8‐2011 155 2008 2011Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q13b‐diep 369 23‐12‐2008 30‐4‐2013 2009‐5 2008 2013Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q16b 80 25‐6‐2008 5‐8‐2013 122 2008 2013Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V. Q13b‐ondiep 369 23‐12‐2008 30‐4‐2013 2009‐5 2008 2013Elko Energy B.V. P02 416 22‐2‐2008 3‐4‐2014 42 2008 2014GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V E17c 290 22‐2‐2008 3‐4‐2012 42 2008 2012GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G10 397 17‐6‐2008 28‐7‐2012 115 2008 2012GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G11 169 17‐6‐2008 28‐7‐2012 115 2008 2012GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. G13 403 17‐6‐2008 28‐7‐2012 115 2008 2012Smart Energy Solutions B.V Q07 419 16‐1‐2008 26‐2‐2012 13 2008 2012Smart Energy Solutions B.V. Q10a 53 6‐8‐2008 8‐8‐2011 155 2008 2011Tullow Netherlands B.V. D09 149 15‐1‐2008 25‐2‐2014 11 2008 2014Tullow Netherlands B.V. E10 401 16‐1‐2008 26‐2‐2012 13 2008 2012Tullow Netherlands B.V. E14 403 15‐1‐2008 25‐2‐2012 12 2008 2012Tullow Netherlands B.V. E15c 343 22‐4‐2008 2‐6‐2012 78 2008 2012Tullow Netherlands B.V. E18b 192 11‐1‐2008 21‐2‐2012 10 2008 2012Wintershall Noordzee B.V. D18b 139 26‐1‐2008 7‐3‐2012 20 2008 2012Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P03 416 14‐10‐2008 24‐11‐2012 202 2008 2012Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. M08a 264 22‐12‐2007 20‐8‐2011 2008‐1 2007 2011Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. M10 & M11 250 28‐7‐2007 10‐9‐2011 152 2007 2011Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q11 162 23‐3‐2007 3‐5‐2011 60 2007 2011Elko Energy B.V P01 209 28‐6‐2007 8‐8‐2013 128 2007 2013GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E13b 169 22‐12‐2007 18‐9‐2011 2008‐9 2007 2011GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V. E16b 375 29‐6‐2007 9‐8‐2011 128 2007 2011Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V. P08c 210 6‐1‐2007 16‐2‐2013 7 2007 2013Tullow Netherlands B.V. E13a 234 22‐12‐2007 18‐9‐2011 2008‐9 2007 2011Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P08b 209 6‐1‐2007 16‐2‐2013 7 2007 2013Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V. P04 170 11‐10‐2006 22‐11‐2010 200 2006 2010Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. L16b 176 2‐2‐2006 16‐3‐2010 38 2006 2010Cirrus Energy Nederland B.V. Q14 25 3‐10‐2006 14‐11‐2010 196 2006 2010Grove Energy Ltd F14 403 11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200 2006 2010Grove Energy Ltd. F18 404 11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200 2006 2010Grove Energy Ltd. L01b 339 11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200 2006 2010RWE Dea AG B14 198 17‐11‐2006 28‐12‐2009 232 2006 2009Total E&P Nederland B.V. L03 406 11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2010 200 2006 2010Wintershall Noordzee B.V. P05 417 11‐10‐2006 21‐11‐2013 200 2006 2013Chevron Expl.and Prod. Netherl. B.V. A12b & B10a 79 16‐4‐2005 77 wva 2005


Origin

Company shortlist Dutch sectorNo Operator

1 CIRRUS

2 Smart Energy Solutions

3 Energy06 Investments B.V.

4 TAQA Offshore B.V.

5 Delta Hydrocarbons NL B.V.

6 Elko Energy B.V.

7 Oyster Energy B.V.

8 GDF SUEZ E&P Nederland B.V.

9 Lundin Netherlands B.V

10 Tullow Netherlands B.V.

11 Wintershall Noordzee B.V.

12 Ascent Resources Netherl. B.V.

13 Elko Energy B.V.

14 Petro‐Canada Netherlands B.V.

15 Grove Energy Ltd.

16 Island Netherlands B.V.


Origin

Investment opportunities outside NetherlandsProject Area PSC holder Company seat Date Source

Blakeney UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice

Orlando UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice

Volante UKCS Wintershall UK/Germany Feb 2010 Oilvoice

Malvolio UKCS Hannu Feb 2010 Oilvoice

Monkwell UKCS Dana Petroleum UK Jan 2010 Oilvoice

Acle UKCS Swift Exploration Dec 2009 Oilvoice

Cosmos South Tunisia Storm Venture Canada Feb 2010 Contact

Seyun‐Masila Yemen Dove Energy Feb 2010 Oilvoice

Tolmount UKCS Dana Petroleum UK Dec 2009 Oilvoice

Cairngorm UKCS Strategic Energy Nov 2009 Oilvoice


Origin

Wintershall Announces Three North Sea Farm Out Opportunities» Orlando

Wintershall (E&P) Limited is offering to divest all or part of it's 35% working interest in licence P1606. Partners are MPX North Sea Ltd. (65%, operator) and Sorgenia E&P Ltd. (Sorgenia will be assigned a 35% interest from MPX). The offer provides interested parties the opportunity to participate in appraisal drilling and development of the Orlando Discovery (block 3/3b) in Q3/Q4 2010, and exploring additional potential within the licence. First oil from Orlando is anticipated for 2011.The licence is a UKCS 25th round award, with an initial term of four years as from 12th February 2009.The work programme includes reprocessing of 200kms2 3D seismic (fulfilled) and drilling of a firm well to a minimum depth of 3580m (TVD) to appraise the Orlando Discovery. The discovery has been re‐mapped and appraised and static and dynamic sub‐surface modelling confirms economic oil quantities within the structure. Drilling of the appraisal/development well (scheduled for 2010) will fulfil the outstanding work obligation on licence p1606. Oil offtake via the Ninian Field is the preferred option, evaluation of rig market and drilling services are underway.

» BlakeneyWintershall (E&P) Limited is proposing to divest part of it's 100% working interest in licences p1562 and p1619, which contain blocks 21/21, 21/22 and 21/27b respectively. The offer provides interested parties the opportunity to participate in drilling and evaluation of the Blakeney prospect (block 21/27b) in Q2/Q3 2010 and ensuing activity in both licences.The licences are UKCS 25th round awards, with an initial term of four years as from February 2009. The first part of the obligatory work programme, which includes the purchase and reprocessing of 223km2 3‐D seismic data has been completed, the data interpreted and evaluated. This work has confirmed and further de‐risked the Blakeney prospect such that the work programme can proceed with the drilling of an exploration well to the Eocene Tay sandstone reservoir objective. The drilling of Blakeney will fulfil the outstanding work obligation on licence p1619. Wintershall has acquired a site survey, selected a drilling location and has contracted the well management services of SPD to plan well operations.

» VolanteWintershall (E&P) Limited offers the opportunity to acquire c. 20% interest in UKCS License P.1303, comprising Blocks 20/2b and 20/3d, in return for participating in drilling the economically attractive Volante prospect in Q3 2010.License P.1303 was originally awarded to BG during the 23rd License Round with a license term of 4 years. Part I of the Work Program (purchase 124 km2 of 3D seismic, rock physics study) has been completed. Part II of the Work Program (drill a well 150 ft below the BCU) is outstanding.Wintershall has recently completed the acquisition of the license, and subsequently farmed out 45%. A further c. 20% interest is now available for interested parties. License extension to end 2010 has been granted by the DECC, allowing operator Wintershall and its partners to drill an exploration well in Q3 2010.


Origin

Hannu North Sea Appraisal Opportunity; The Malvolio Prospect UKCS Viking Graben» Hannu North Sea Limited is seeking a partner(s) to farm in to the Malvolio Prospect in the

UKCS Viking Graben.

» Malvolio, located in UKCS Viking Graben Block 3/23b is a Paleocene appraisal opportunity in an Upper Montrose Group sand.

» Well 3/23b‐3 drilled by Chevron in 1988 on 2D seismic data defines Malvolio's northern pinch out edge. It encountered live oil over the shakers and has a resistivity anomaly at the target horizon significantly reducing risk on Malvolio.

» The stratigraphic trap has been defined through integration of the simultaneous inversion model, time and depth mapping, geobody extraction from seismic frequency decomposition and AI/EI modelling. This geophysical work, allied with the petrophysical analysis of 3/23b‐3 and surrounding wells, suggests p50 reserves of 26mmbbls and upside (p90) reserves of 106mmbbls. The main risk is determined to be trap presence (70%) with reservoir (80%) and charge (80%) defining a geological chance factor of 45%.

» Well costs are estimated at £9mm gross dry hole and £13.3mm tested. In the event of success, development would proceed via a small FPSO.

» Hannu North Sea Limited is a 100% owned subsidiary of MPX Energy Limited.


Origin

Monkwell Field Appraisal Opportunity from Dana Petroleum: Block 42/29a» Dana offer an equity share in the Monkwell Field sub‐area of block 42/29a, in the Southern

North Sea, in exchange for a negotiable carry of its share of well costs to appraise the north‐western upside of the Monkwell field.

» A new PreSDM 3D dataset has been generated over the block to aid in trap definition.

» Monkwell is a Lower Leman Sandstone gas field with mean reserves of 58bcf (1 well development), with upside of 120bcf (3 well development).

» An appraisal well will be drilled in Q2, 2010 and be suspended as a producer if successful (£11.0MM dry hole cost).

» Host modification concept studies for BP's Cleeton platform are complete and a tariff for gas handling agreed.


Origin

Swift Exploration Announces UK Southern North Sea Farm-in Opportunity» Swift Exploration Ltd is seeking a partner(s) to farm in to the Acle gas prospect ‐ UKCS

Southern North Sea Licence P.1715 Block 49/29d

» Block 49/29d contains the Acle gas prospect at the Rotliegendes Sand level The Prospect is ready for drilling and has the potential for early production via a number of different export routes offering an very short tie back.

» The Acle prospect is a simple four way dip and up thrown fault closed structure mapped at Rotliegendes sand level. The local well control demonstrates excellent reservoir potential and top seal. It is in the centre of the Rotliegendes gas fairway where all the adjacent structural closures contain producing fields. It is clearly imaged on 3D seismic and is supported by a DHI.

» The prospect has 1,300 acres of closure with 370ft of maximum structural relief; and the lowest closing contour is 8210 ft ss. The GIIP for the Acle prospect is 66 to 258 bcf with recoverable reserves of 49 to 194 bcf.

» Risk analysis suggests that probability of finding hydrocarbons are better than 50%. Local fields are being produced with reserves of 35bcf and indicate that a discovery at Acle is likely to provide a favourable commercial opportunity.


Origin

Storm Ventures Canada – COSMOS field Tunesia investment opportunity» FPSO devt of 25mm bbl ooip Cosmos Main and 15mm bbl ooip Cosmos Terraces;

» ‘Fit for purpose’ turret moored 450,000 bbl FPSO for small fields;

» LOI stage with experienced FPSO contractor (SVI 20% equity);

» Development capital est. $150mm, IP15,000bopd;

» 8.9mm bbls rec. 3p; (5.9mm bbls net) from Cosmos Main;

» Follow up opportunities on fallow discoveries at Yasmin (15‐20mm boip) and Tazerka (90mm boip) which require appraisal;

» First ‘E’ well mid 2009;

» SVI 66% operated interest requires $75‐95mm of new finance at target 50/50 debt/equity and LOC support for conversion;$30mm pre IPO private round to kick off development and FPSO;


Origin

Tolmount Exploration Opportunity from Dana Petroleum: Blocks 42/28d & 29b» Dana Petroleum is offering a 35% equity share in two part blocks containing six Rotliegend

prospects and one gas discovery (Mongour), in exchange for a negotiable carry of Dana well costs in testing the Tolmount prospect.

» Blocks 42/28d & 29b lie in the Southern North Sea, at the north‐western end of the Sole Pit Trough, in the prolific Rotliegend play fairway.

» Tolmount is a simple structural closure in both time and depth, mapped at Top Rotliegendlevel, with 185m of vertical relief.

» A new PreSDM 3D dataset has been generated over the blocks to aid trap definition.

» Tolmount has mean reserves of 102bcf with an upside of 201bcf (COS: 0.53).The prospect will be drilled in Q3, 2010 (£12.1MM dry hole cost)


Origin

Stratic Energy Farm-in Opportunity: Cairngorm, Licences P1214, P1299, Blocks 16/2b, 16/3d» Stratic Energy is offering an incoming party a 50% interest in licences P1214 (block 16/2b)

and P1299 (block 16/3d) by funding a share of a firm appraisal well in Q2/Q3 2010. These blocks contain the Cairngorm granite accumulation, tested by the 16/3a‐11z discovery well which flowed 40 degree API oil at rates in excess of 2000 bopd. The Cairngorm accumulation is a fractured granite play with upside reserves up to 28mmbls. The fractured granite reservoir at Cairngorm has the ability to flow at rates up to 20,000 bopd which means that even low recoverable volumes are of high value. Dry hole costs are estimated at £10mm to a TD of 7960ft at a rig rate of $230,000 per day for a 34 day well including open hole logging.


Origin

Macro Economic Outlook» 420 ontdekte aardgasvelden

» Het kleineveldenbeleid heeft ertoe geleid dat er in Nederland honderden kleine gasvelden zijn gevonden. Vooral in de Noordzee en de noordelijke provincies. Per 1 januari 2009 kende Nederland 420 ontdekte aardgasvelden:

» 234 aardgasvelden zijn ontwikkeld, waarvan er 230 in productie zijn en 4 worden gebruikt voor opslag

» 125 aardgasvelden zijn niet ontwikkeld: 53 daarvan worden waarschijnlijk binnen 5 jaar in productie genomen, van de overige 72 is het onzeker of ze ontwikkeld worden

» bij 61 aardgasvelden is de productie (tijdelijk) gestaakt.


Origin24

0

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Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

USD/barrel

Brent oil

Brent forward Feb '07



The day after tomorrowLong term macro trend of increased energy need still intactPopulation growth and increased living standard increases demand for

oil

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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Production

Production 2‐4 X discoveries

Tupi discovery

Source: IHS Energy, IEA, Conoco Philips; Bloomberg, Arctic Securities Equity Research

Closing the gap between supply and demand is becoming difficult

Production has exceeded hydrocarbon additions since 1980s Fwd oil price still at historic high levels

0

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25 Oil demand per capita (barrels per year) Global oil demand and supply 2005‐2030e (mill bbl/day)

Oil discoveries and ‐production 1930‐2050 (bln bbls) Historic oil price and current oil price forward curve(Oil price USD / bbl)

The macro picture supports a strong offshore industry in many years to come.


Origin

Regulatory Framework» EZ: “Er komt een financiële stimulans om de winning van gas uit marginale gasvelden op de

Noordzee te bevorderen. Dit schrijft minister Maria van der Hoeven van Economische Zaken in een brief aan de Tweede Kamer. Mijnbouwbedrijven mogen éénmalig in het jaar waarin zij investeren in bedrijfsmiddelen voor exploratie of exploitatie van marginale gasvelden op de Noordzee naast hun normale afschrijving 25 procent van de kapitaalkosten van in mindering mogen brengen op het bedrijfsresultaat waarover zij winstaandeel verschuldigd zijn. De verwachting is dat met behulp van deze maatregel zo'n 30 gasvoorkomens onder de Noordzee in gebruik zullen worden genomen, goed voor de winning van zo'n 20 miljard kubieke meter aardgas extra.Er zijn in de afgelopen jaren al diverse middelen ingezet om de mijnbouwactiviteiten in kleine velden te stimuleren. Zo worden "slapende" vergunningen aangepakt door vergunninghouders aan te spreken op hun activiteitenniveau. Een ingediend wetsvoorstel tot wijziging van de Mijnbouwwet en een nog met de mijnbouwindustrie af te sluiten convenant hebben ook als doel het actief benutten van verleende vergunningen voor opsporing en winning. Achtergrond van al deze maatregelen en activiteiten is de noodzaak om in de komende tien tot vijftien jaar zoveel mogelijk kleine offshore gasvelden in productie te brengen. De nu producerende velden op het Nederlandse continentale plat raken uitgeproduceerd en de bestaande infrastructuur dreigt te worden ontmanteld. Zonder deze infrastructuur is het waarschijnlijk dat marginale kleine velden niet meer worden benut.”


Origin

Combineer winning gas op Noordzee met windenergie» De financiële stimuleringsmaatregel die winning van aardgas in kleinere velden op de

Noordzee aantrekkelijk moet maken, zou alleen toegepast moeten worden als olie‐ en gaswinning gecombineerd wordt met windenergie. NWEA pleit daarvoor in een brief aan de minister van Economische Zaken.

» Met de brief reageert NWEA op een voorgenomen aanpassing van de Mijnbouwwet. De Rijksoverheid wil het daarmee aantrekkelijker maken om aardgas te winnen uit 'marginale velden'. Volgens NWEA biedt dat goede mogelijkheden om meervoudig ruimtegebruik en samenwerking tussen de windenergiesector en de olie‐ en gassector te bevorderen. Daarom zou in elk geval de geplande financiële stimuleringsmaatregel voor aardgas uit marginale velden alleen toegestaan moeten worden als de winning gecombineerd wordt met windenergie. Overigens sluit de NWEA‐brief aan bij wat eerder vanuit de CDA‐fractie in de Tweede Kamer naar voren is gebracht.

» http://www.nwea.nl/nieuws/mijnbouwwet‐00230


Origin

Kleine velden beleid» Kleine velden beleid:

Er zijn vele onderzoeken en boringen nodig om een gasveld (met kleine hoeveelheden aardgas) te vinden. Daarnaast is het relatief duur om een gasveld in productie te brengen, zeker op zee. Daarom heeft de rijksoverheid in 1974 het kleine veldenbeleid geïntroduceerd. In de Gaswet is vastgelegd dat gasproducenten de mogelijkheid hebben het door hun gewonnen gas in een bepaald tempo tegen redelijke voorwaarden en marktconforme vergoedingen te verkopen aan GasTerra (afzetgarantie). Bovendien is Gas Transport Services (GTS) verplicht het gas uit kleine velden in te nemen en te transporteren (innameplicht). Hiermee wordt tevens bereikt dat de balansfunctie van het Groningenveld zolang als mogelijk in stand wordt gehouden.


Origin

Wetsvoorstel Q1 2008» De ministerraad heeft op voorstel van minister Van der Hoeven van Economische Zaken ingestemd

met een wijziging van de Mijnbouwwet. Het wetsvoorstel heeft als doel het bevorderen van een actieve benutting van vergunningen voor gebruik van de Nederlandse ondergrond voor de opsporing en winning van delfstoffen en de ondergrondse opslag van aardgas en CO2.

» Maximale productie van de nog aanwezige (gas)reserves is van belang voor de voorzieningszekerheid en de inkomsten van de staat uit gaswinning. Ondergrondse opslag stelt marktpartijen in staat om in een toekomst, waarin Nederland netto gasimporteur gaat worden, gasvraag en ‐aanbod flexibel op elkaar af te stemmen. Dit past in de ambitie van Nederland als aardgasrotonde voor Noordwest‐Europa. Daarnaast is het van belang lege gasvelden te kunnen gebruiken voor de opslag van CO2 in het kader van de vergaande plannen voor reductie van CO2‐emissies.

» Het wetsvoorstel geeft de minister van Economische Zaken de bevoegdheid om delen van vergunningsgebieden ter beschikking te stellen aan derden voor opsporing, winning of opslag. Het gaat dan om gebieden waar de vergunninghouder zelf, ook na daartoe te zijn aangemaand, geen relevante activiteiten onderneemt. Hiermee wordt bewerkstelligd dat een niet‐actieve vergunninghouder produceerbare of nog te exploreren gasvelden in zijn vergunningsgebied nodeloos lang bezet houdt. Overigens heeft overleg met individuele vergunninghouders de afgelopen jaren al vruchten afgeworpen in de vorm van hernieuwde activiteiten, het teruggeven van vergunningen en overdracht van delen van vergunningen aan derden.


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Stimuleringsmaatregel kleine aardgasvelden» De platforms en gasleidingen (bestaande gasinfrastructuur) in zee zullen worden verwijderd

zodra het aanwezige aardgas is gewonnen. Vandaar dat de overheid wil dat er tot die tijd zoveel mogelijk gasvelden in zee worden opgespoord, ontwikkeld en aangesloten op de bestaande infrastructuur. Anders blijven deze gasvelden onbenut. Hiervoor is een financiële stimuleringsmaatregel opgenomen in de gewijzigde Mijnbouwwet die momenteel door de Europese Commissie wordt getoetst op staatssteunaspecten. Als de Europese Commissie akkoord gaat mogen gasproducenten van marginale (onvoldoende rendabele) gasvelden op zee 25% van hun investeringskosten aftrekken van het bedrijfsresultaat waarover zij winstaandeel aan de Staat moeten betalen. De criteria voor marginale velden zullen worden vastgelegd in een ministeriële regeling van de Minister van Economische Zaken.

» Een convenant met mijnbouwondernemingen die actief zijn op het continentaal plat moet ertoe leiden dat de minister van Economische Zaken geen gebruik hoeft te maken van de bevoegdheid tot gebiedsverkleining. Via deze bevoegdheid kan de minister het gebied waarop de vergunning van toepassing is, maar waar geen activiteiten zijn of zullen worden verricht, verkleinen zodat het gebied beschikbaar kan komen voor andere partijen. De bevoegdheid tot gebiedsverkleining voor zowel onshore als offshore gebieden is opgenomen in de gewijzigde Mijnbouwwet. Deze maatregel is op 1 januari 2010 in werking getreden. Het convenant zal in werking treden zodra de financiële stimuleringsmaatregel in werking treedt.

» http://wetten.overheid.nl/BWBR0014168/geldigheidsdatum_15‐01‐2010


Origin

Investment RisksFollowing risk factors should be considered making an investment decision in oil and gas: » Commodity price fluctuations for oil and gas can result in operating and financial performance

different from our forecast. Commodities are typically priced in US dollar terms, thus exchange rates for non‐US based companies can result in realized prices significantly different than the US benchmark;

» Third‐party credit risk exposes producer cash flow to adverse cash flow impacts in the event counterparties fail to meet contractual obligations;

» Future financial performance is dependent on companies’ ability to replace reserves via exploration and production and via integrating acquisitions;

» Reliance on third‐party operators and/or processing capacity may create delays and cost over‐runs. » Actual production and cash flow achieved by a producer could be materially different than third

party engineering and/or forecasts;» Geologic and reservoir characteristics vary by play and results in a wide range of risk; thus, there is

no certainty past drilling success rates will be replicated in the future;» Companies are exposed to geopolitical risks, including changes to regulatory and fiscal policy which

may alter expected economic returns;» Increased environmental regulation may potentially impact timelines and costs for projects. » At any given time a producer may see limited access to capital resulting in higher debt levels and/or

reduced capital spending programs.

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