Megatrends boosting imagination and innovation

COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Gloria Álvarez Hernández, EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent

Smirt Collins, Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent

November 2012

MEGATRENDS

BOOSTING IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION

PALEOFUTUREONCE IMAGINED FUTURES

ARTS LITERATURE & CINEMA


Source:

Paleofuture, concept invented by Mark Novak www.paleofuture.com; Villamard: http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2011/03/1910-vintage-postcards-

depict-year-2000/; http://www.flickr.com/photos/amphalon/sets/72157615623434624/with/3367567475/ ; Literature & Cinema: Google images;

Technology: 2012 @guirepso several resources @ http://www.scoop.it/t/paleofuture

TECHNOLOGY1999: 2010 NTT Docomo vision

2007: 2010 NTT Docomo vision, Old friends

2008: Nokia morph nanotechnology

2010: NTT Docomo vision

2010: 2014 Future of screen

2010: Forbes Your life in 2020

2011: A day made of glass

2012: Project Glass: One day

2009: LTE vision. Alcatel-Lucent

2009: Mocom 2020 vision

2009: Nokia vision 2015

2009: The Wireless Future of Medicine

KEY CONCEPTS IN SCENARII PLANNING

MICROTREND

Seed of Change, Week Signal

TREND COUNTER / ANTI TREND

WILD CARD MEGATREND

DEFINITION

IMPACT

•Mini trend• Uncertain future• Notable change with very limited effects, Low impact

•Maybe a starting

• Behavior Pattern in economic, environmental, social conditions

• Medium impact

• Reaction to a trend

• Low impact

• Low probability• High potential impact on society

•Significant global change, Inevitable

•Several trends collide and generate a megatrend

•Wide-reaching impact on society


•Maybe a starting trend or only regional

on society

TIMING • Short /Mid term •Mid /Long term • Mid/Long term • Short/Mid/ Long term • Mid/Long term

EXAMPLES

• “moustache”fashion

• Secure information in Africa

• Self suficient house

•Mobile penetration

• Smartphones• Health applications

• Low “de-tech”services

• Open data vs Privacy

• “Rural turning”

• Tsunami• Terrorist attack• Earthquake

• Aging population• 24x7 Connectivity• Neo-urbanization

Source: Gloria Alvarez Hernández & Smirt Collins, Alcatel-Lucent 2012 based on several resources

http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf

Trends and Megatrends - Ullrich Lorenz & Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt – 2010

iKnow several studies – 2011

Alcatel-Lucent megatrends research

MEGATRENDS FRAMEWORK

COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

4

THE STORY OF MEGATRENDS

1980 Naisbitt invented

the concept

PEOPLE


ORGANIZATIONS

PEOPLE

CONSULTING COMPANIESVENDORSGOVERNMENT/EUBUSINESS SCHOOLS

http://www.scoop.it/t/megatrend

MEGATRENDS RESEARCHALCATEL-LUCENT

• Methodology: Expert International Workshop

• Participants: ENCP Business School, Alcatel-Lucent and Telecommunication companies

• Results: Key megatrends impacting ICT sector, megatrends and trends map, market analysis*, blog series**


* http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/

** http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/corporate/tag/megatrends/

7 MEGATRENDS + 2 IN PROGRESS

168 “ALWAYS ON” GENERATION

DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION

ED-YOU-CATIONINDIVIDUAL CENTERED LEARNING

COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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REJUVENAGINGRAPIDLY-INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCIES

NEO-URBANIZATION BLURRING BOUNDARIES BETWEEN

URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL

NETIZENS TO GOVERNMENT DIGITAL MEDIA EMPOWERING

CITIZENS

SUSTAINABLE BY DESIGN SUSTAINABILITY AS A

COMPETITIVE IMPERATIVE

B2SHE DEVICEOLOGY

DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk&feature=youtube_gdata_player

EN PROCE

SO

EN PROCE

SO

USING MEGATRENDSCREATE INNOVATIONS

• Mentoring programCreativity and innovation sessions

• Women professionals across different sectors Telecommunications, education, retail & food, consulting, services, entrepreneurship

• Techniques and methods


• Techniques and methods

• Results During our sessions two of my entrepreneur mentees discovered tangible areas of innovation for their own businesses

USING MEGATRENDSIDENTIFY, ANALIZE AND ASSESS STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES

Ideation, imagination

84 opportunities identified

1


Categorization, grouping, filtering, selection

8 strategic projects selected

2

USING MEGATRENDSDEVELOPE FUTURE VISIONS

New visions and business models

Neo-urbanization

Analyzing megatrends intersection - megatrends impact on other megatrends


Sustainable by design

Ed-you-cation

168 (24x7 Connectivity)

Megatrendshttp://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-neo-urbanization.php

http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-sustainable-by-design.php

http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-ed-you-cation.php

http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-168-24x7.php

CONCLUSIONS

1. Analysis of Megatrends a key tool for sensing the future

2. Combining creativity and innovation tools together with megatrends tool can help to generate new visions, strategies and translate in product, market and customer innovations


innovations

CONTACT DETAILS

Gloria Alvarez HernándezEMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent

Twitter: @guirepso


Smirt CollinsMarket & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent

Twitter: @SmirtCollins

