Market Movement UpdatesMarket Movement Updates

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February February 20122012

USDTHB Spot : 2007-Feb 2012

2

Source : Reuters

6.7 Baht(22% Range)

USDTHB Spot : 2011-Feb 2012

3

Source : Reuters

2.3 Baht(7% Range)

USDTHB Spot : Min-Max of Each Year

2005 Range 38.30 41.60 (3.30)

2006 Range 35.80 39.00 (3.20)

2007 Range 33.00 35.80 (2.80)

2008 Range 31.50 34.80 (3.30)

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2008 Range 31.50 34.80 (3.30)

2009 Range 33.10 36.10 (3.00)

2010 Range 29.50 33.20 (3.70)

2011 Range 29.50 31.40 (1.90)

2012 (Jan-Feb)Range 30.65 32.00 (1.35)

EURUSD Spot : 2007-2011

5

Source : Reuters

0.4125(31% Range)

EURUSD Spot : 2011-Feb 2012

6

Source : Reuters

0.2275(17% Range)

EURUSD Spot : Min-Max of Each Year

2005 Range 1.1640 1.3580 (0.1940)

2006 Range 1.1825 1.3365 (0.1540)

2007 Range 1.2865 1.4965 (0.2100)

2008 Range 1.2330 1.6035 (0.3708)

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2008 Range 1.2330 1.6035 (0.3708)

2009 Range 1.2455 1.5140 (0.2685)

2010 Range 1.1875 1.4280 (0.2405)

2011 Range 1.2860 1.4935 (0.2075)

2012 (Jan-Feb)Range 1.2625 1.3320 (0.0695)

USDJPY Movement

� In continued bearish tone since 2007 but a rebound is possible.

8

Source : Reuters

USDTHB Movement

� Dropped below 31.0 after Fed news, next support 30.75.

9

Source : Reuters

Crude Oil Movement

� Brent crude oil rebounded from 110 area to 118 from tension in Iran.

10

Source : Reuters

Gold Movement

� Gold rose from QE hope from $1,650 to $1,760 but dropped to $1,720 after good nonfarm payroll number.

11

Source : Reuters

Copper Movement

� Recovered from better sentiment in Europe but dropped this week after Moody’s downgrade of 9 European sovereigns.

12

Source : Reuters

THB and USD Interest Rate

� THB Long-term rose after Dr.Prasarn comment that rate is already accommodative.

13

10Y USDIRS

10Y THB IRS

Source : Reuters

Italy 10Y Bond Yield

� The sentiment is better from Greece debt talk hope, rate dropped below 6% now.

14

Source : Reuters

What is interesting in the market now?

� Client who can borrow cheap foreign currency loan (USD, JPY, etc) can now swap into cheap THB funding.

� For example, client who can borrow 5Y at LIBOR+1% now can swap into THB funding with interest rate THBFIX-0.3% !!!

� This is due to the imbalance market where a lot of clients need to swap from THB funding into USD funding in order to invest offshore or to match with their USD

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funding into USD funding in order to invest offshore or to match with their USD income flow.

� For FX hedging, we still recommend clients to buy PUT option (for exporters) or buy CALL option (for importer) as we expect fierce swing in the spot similar to what we have seen last year while the premium is still cheap and not reflect the real spot move.

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