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EDUCATING SUPPORTING REPRESENTING www.charteredaccountants.ie The ramifications of Thursday’s Brexit Leave vote on Ireland and on global financial markets’ Ian Slattery Zurich

Ian slattery brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

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Page 1: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

EDUCATING

SUPPORTING

REPRESENTING

www.charteredaccountants.ie

‘The ramifications of Thursday’s Brexit

Leave vote on Ireland and on global

financial markets’

Ian Slattery

Zurich

Page 2: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Agenda

• Review of short-term market effects

• Analysis of issues over the medium term

• How should investors and companies react?

Page 3: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Returns 24 June – Selected Markets

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Page 4: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Friday 24 June

Performers on the Day

Source: Bloomberg

Page 5: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

World Equities in EUR Terms

Source: Bloomberg

03/06/2015 - 29/06/2016

Page 6: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

29/06/2015 - 29/06/2016

FTSE 100 in Local Terms

Source: Bloomberg

Page 7: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

VIX Index29/06/2015 - 29/06/2016

Source: Bloomberg

Page 8: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

02/01/2015 - 29/06/2016

10 year German Bund

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

08/07/2011 - 29/06/2016

Spanish/German 10 year spreads

Source: Bloomberg

Page 10: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

30/06/2014 - 29/06/2016

ISEQ Index

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Exports of goods and services to UK, % GDP

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Credit Suisse

Page 12: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Punt/GBP

Source: Bloomberg

31/07/1996 - 29/06/2016

Page 13: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

European Election Timetable

Source: Credit Suisse, Zurich

Page 14: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Percentage of companies with dividend yield>corporate bond yield

Europe 600 Index

Source: Factset, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Page 15: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

Indicative Top-Down Investment Process

Source: Zurich

Page 16: Ian slattery    brexit - cork - 30th june 2016

QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU

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