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This presentation provides a short introduction into futuring and futures that are divided in: the future of the past, the future of the present, the future of the future (After Next).
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“Managers make many decisions each day, and a great majority of them refers to future events”
Spyrog Makridakis
Roger BaconScientific Studies, 1260
1950 19
60
1970 19
80
1990
2013
The exploration of futures strongly bases on the participants abilities.
Ossip K. Flechtheim
Social Fabric
Technology Fabric
Zeitgeist describes the interactions,
values and believes of a society. It is the
“spirit of times” and the “soul of society”.
It describes the period after the present. The Future is inevitable, partial or not known and symbolizes changes and uncertainty.
It is a combination of new or existing variables and their amplitudes.
Future of the Past
Future of the Present
Future of the Future
We live, already lived or are really close to the Future of the Past. That is why we have more facts and information that transforms it into a pool of insights and deeper understanding of changes.
1966“Probe of the future”, TRW
66 forecastsMostly wrong
1967“The Year 2000”, Macmillian100 inventions15% corrects10% partial correct
Steven P. Schnaars
The Future of the Present generates new realities and identifies new possible changes, logics, risks and opportunities. It is a combination of several variables from trends to fictions.
The primary objective is to amplify and create new perspectives anticipating decisions.
IsomorphicCycles
Trends
NewVariables
FutureFuture
The spread of computers and the Internet will put jobs in two categories: People who tell computers what to do, and people who are told by computers what to do.” Only one of these two job categories will be well paid.
Marc Andreessen
After Next (AN) is a vision that is explored upon a created and selected future. It uses Fiction and variables from scenarios as a starting points. AN identifies new possible realities, logics and not yet existing opportunities. Once created it turns atemporal, a reality, that we do not know when it will happen.
Futu
re After Next
Variables of the future
New Variables
SocialZeitgeistFunction
TechnologyScience
Parts
It is the process of exploring, understanding and creating new future realities. Its objectives is to create a new future consciousness of possible changes, identify new opportunities, risks and logics for the present context.
Linear/ProgressiveCyclic Open/Complex
Cognitive(inspired by Metaverse Roadmap)
Unseen Future
VirtualMirror
Exis
tin
gN
ewPhysicalCognitive
Unseen Future
VirtualMirror
Exis
tin
gN
ew
Physical
(Daniel Egger 2013)
Micro Variables
MacroVariables
MegaVariables
Dr. Vannevar Bush “The 3rd Eye”, 1945
Core Vision Details
Google Glass, 2013
191
3, T
he
Art
of N
ois
es,
Lu
igi R
usso
lo
The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
The Cool Hunter
The Trend Researcher
The Futurist
Planner Futurist(Specific Theme; 3-5 years; may use inputs from the
Futurists)
(Multiple perspectives; more than 5 years; constantly in the
flux)
ExploratoryQualitative
NormativeQuantitative
Future Studies applies multiple tools to explore
new realities.
- Mechanical Extrapolation- Unexplored Assumptions- Not to imagine- Work only with ONE future- Search for a solution instead of opportunities- Predict the future- Judge the future with todays values- Low Flexibility- “Fashion” Tools- Super simplified Tools
“We did not invent time travel yet
(unknonw)
too change the past. Our only opportunity is
to create a new future.
