Espcrepcceba

Central Coast Regional Economy Report

Presentation

Jim King

JK, Inc.

Central Coast Regional Economy Report

Context for Regional Economic Growth Comparison of Regional Economic Growth Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast

Region Industries in the Central Coast Economic

Base

Context for Regional Economic Growth

Job Gains 20 Months After Recession Ends

16.9%

6.3%

6.1%

0.3%

12.4%

4.4%

5.3%

4.6%

8.0%

-1.1%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1945-1947

1949-1951

1954-1956

1958-1959

1961-1962

1970-1972

1975-1976

1982-1984

1991-1992

2001-2003

(Percent Change in Non-Farm Jobs)

State and National Economy Move Together

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

(Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

)

United States California

Job Losses Concentrated in Manufacturing

-276

-2675

-300

-2512-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

California United States

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s;

Ja

n 0

1-A

ug

03

)

Nonfarm Manufacturing

Comparison of CA and US Job Losses

-1.9% -2.0%

-0.2%

-1.2%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

Since Jan 01 2000-2003

(Per

cen

t C

han

ge)

California United States

Loss of Manufacturing Jobs

-15.6% -15.6%-16.0% -14.7% -14.9%-14.6%-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Since Jan 01 Aug 00-Aug 03

(Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

)

California United States Texas

Productivity Growth Rate

2.2%

3.1%

2.0%

6.8%

2.7%

5.3%

2.5%2.6%2.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-1

2003-2

(Pe

rce

nt)

Comparison of RegionalEconomic Growth

Growth in Total Jobs 2000-2003

0.7%

3.2%

4.8%

-0.2%

-1.2%-6.4%

4.4%

9.2%

4.8%

1.9%

1.5%

-8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%

Sierra

Valley

N. Sacramento

Sacramento

Border

N. California

Coast

SoCal

California

U.S.

Bay Area

(Percent Change)

Growth in Total Jobs Jan 01-Aug 03

0.8%1.0%

3.9%

4.9%

3.4%

-9.0%-2.0%-1.9%

4.5%

2.4%

-1.6%

-12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0%

Sierra

Valley

N. Sacramento

N. California

Sacramento

Border

Coast

SoCal

California

U.S.

Bay Area

(Percent Change)


15.2%

31.6%

14.6%

11.2%8.2%

28.7%25.2%

25.0%24.9%

20.5%16.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Sacramento

Sierra

Border

N. Sacramento

Valley

CoastU.S.

N. California

California

Bay Area

SoCal

(Percent Change)


0.7%

3.2%

4.8%

-0.2%

-1.2%-6.4%

4.4%

9.2%

4.8%

1.9%

1.5%

-8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%

Sierra

Valley

N. Sacramento

Sacramento

Border

N. California

Coast

SoCal

California

U.S.

Bay Area

(Percent Change)

Growth in Total Jobs

0.0% 1.5%

18.7%20.5%

14.7%

-0.2%

17.4%

-2.1%

4.2%

16.4%

-1.2%

13.1%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990-1994 1994-2000 2000-2003 1990-2003

(Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

)

Central Coast California U.S.

Per Capita Income in 2001

$21,317

$22,982$23,188

$23,785

$30,135

$30,269

$30,413

$30,467

$32,563

$32,950

$45,555

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Valley

No. Sac. Valley

No. California

Central Sierra

Sacramento

SoCal

U.S.

Central Coast

California

Border

Bay Area

Per Capita Income 1990-2001

30.2%

34.6%

37.6%

39.5%

42.8%44.2%

46.0%48.2%

48.8%55.4%56.9%

72.9%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%

Valley

Cal CPI

SoCal

Central Sierra

Sac. Valley

No. California

Central Coast

California

Sacramento

U.S.

Border

Bay Area

(Percent Change)

Change in Unemployment Rate 2000-2003

4.1%

2.0%

1.8%

1.4%

1.3%

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

0.9%

0.9%

0.7%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Bay Area

U.S.

California

Sacramento

SoCal

No. Sac. Valley

Valley

Border

No. California

Central Coast

Central Sierra

Unemployment Rate in 2003

13.3%

8.8%

8.3%

6.8%

6.7%

6.7%

6.7%

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

4.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Valley

No. Sac. Valley

No. California

Central Coast

Central Sierra

Bay Area

California

Sacramento

U.S.

SoCal

Border

Average Wage in 2002

$31,881

$31,891

$32,018

$32,552

$34,631

$42,002

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

California

Central Coast

Central Sierra

San Joaquin Valley

Northern Sacramento Valley

Northern California

Annual Average Wage Growth 1997-2001

6.1%

5.1%

4.8%

4.6%

4.1%

4.0%

4.0%

3.9%

7.4%

5.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Bay Area

San Diego

California

Sacramento

Central Coast

San Joaquin Valley

Northern Sac Valley

Los Angeles

Central Sierra

Northern

(Percent)

Major Industry Sectors in the Central Coast Region

Leading Major Industry Sectors

15.5

19.1

93.1

57.4

52.6

49.3

36.8

31.2

22.6

19.5

0 30 60 90 120

All Government

Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Retail Trade

Accommodation & Food Svcs.

Health Care & Social Assistance

Manufacturing

Construction

Administrative & Waste Svcs.

Professional & Technical Svcs.

Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.)

(Thousands of Jobs in 2002)

Other Major Industry Sectors

1.2

5.1

12.4

7.7

6.66.1

12.8

2.9

7.0

8.2

0 3 6 9 12 15

Wholesale Trade

Finance & Insurance

Information

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Transportation & Warehousing

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation

Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises

Educational Svcs.

Utilities

Mining


Above-Average Share in CC

11.3%

0.6%

12.3%

19.9%

10.6%

2.6%

16.5%

7.8%

10.7%

0.4%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ag., Forestry,Fishing &Hunting

All Government

Accommodation& Food Svcs.

Retail Trade

Utilities

(Pe

rce

nt

of

To

tal

Jo

bs

in

20

02

)

CC California

Below-Average Share in CC

6.7%

4.2%

2.7%1.8%

4.1%

6.1%

4.4%3.4%

11.0%

6.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Information WholesaleTrade

Professional &Technical

Svcs.

Administrative& Waste Svcs.

Manufacturing

(Pe

rce

nt

of

To

tal

Jo

bs

in

20

02

)

CC California

Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 1990-2002

-5.1

17.1

12.2

11.5

9.1

8.2

6.0

4.3

2.4

2.1

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

All Government




Retail Trade



Wholesale Trade

Other Svcs.

Manufacturing

(Thousands)

Job Growth in Leading Major Industries 2000-2002

0.6

0.9

0.3

-3.2

-0.5

1.1

1.8

3.4

4.5

12.3

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0


All Government



Other Svcs (Except Public Admin.)

Construction

Retail Trade



Manufacturing

(Thousands)

Industries in the Central CoastEconomic Base

Central Coast Economic Base

6.1

12.8

19.1

19.5

52.6

57.4

49.3

93.1

22.6

36.8

0 30 60 90 120

All Government


Retail Trade



Construction



Wholesale Trade



Change in CC Economic Base 1990-2002

2.4

11.5

9.1

4.7

4.3

8.2

4.76.0

12.217.1

0 5 10 15 20

All Government




Retail Trade



Construction


Wholesale Trade

(Thousands of Jobs)


6.9

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-1.0

-5.2

0.7

3.7

1.3

2.9

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9






Wholesale Trade

All Government


Retail Trade

Construction

(Thousands of Jobs)


13.3

6.3

2.3

2.9

3.5

7.5

8.9

8.9

5.9

5.2

0 4 8 12 16

All Government

Construction

Retail Trade






Wholesale Trade


(Thousands of Jobs)


0.3

0.1

-1.1

-1.2

0.9

0.6

-0.5

3.4

1.8

4.5

-3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0

All Government



Construction

Retail Trade


Wholesale Trade




(Thousands of Jobs)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f C

C J

ob

s)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f S

tate

Jo

bs

)

Econ Base Jobs in CC CC Econ Base Jobs in State

CC Share of California, 2002

2.0%

3.8%

4.3%

2.9%

3.1%

3.3%

2.1%

2.1%

2.2%

2.9%

15.2%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%



All Government

Retail Trade

Total Jobs


Construction




Wholesale Trade

Change in CC LQ as Compared to California

1990-2002

-0.04

-0.05

0.75

-0.09

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.47

0.03

0.04

-0.4 0 0.4 0.8



Retail Trade


Construction

Wholesale Trade

All Government




Change in CC LQ for Top 10 Job Providers with < 50 Jobs in 1990, 1990-2002

12.4

0.8

0.8

0.6

3.0

2.1

3.2

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Forest nursery & gathering forest products

Hunting & trapping

Timber tract operations

Animal aquaculture

Sheep & goat farming

Lime & gypsum product manufacturing

Motor vehicle manufacturing

Satellite telecommunications

Other leather product manufacturing

Support activities for rail transportation


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Econ Base Jobs in CC Share of CA

All Government

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Local, State, and Federal Government

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Local government, total

State government, total

Federal government, total

CC Construction

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Construction

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Residential building construction

Nonresidential building construction

Utility system construction

Land subdivision

Highway, street, & bridge construction

CC Health Care & Social Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Health Care & Social Assistance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Offices of physicians

Offices of dentists

Offices of other health practitioners

Outpatient care centers

Medical & diagnostic laboratories

CC Administrative & Waste Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Administrative & Waste Services

012345678

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Employment services

Services to buildings & dwellings

Investigation & security services

Business support services

Travel arrangement & reservation services

`

CC Retail Trade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Retail Trade

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Grocery storesHealth & personal care storesBuilding material & supplies dealersDepartment storesAutomobile dealers

CC Accommodation & Food Services

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Accommodation & Food Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

san

ds)

Full-service restaurants

Traveler accommodation

Limited-service eating places

Special food services

Drinking places, alcoholic beverages

CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

CC Ag., Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Support activities for crop production

Vegetable & melon farming

Fruit & tree nut farmingGreenhouse & nursery production

Other crop farming

CC Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Management of companies & enterprises

CC Professional & Technical Svcs.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Jobs in Professional & Technical Svcs.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Architectural & engineering servicesLegal servicesScientific research & development servicesAccounting & bookkeeping servicesManagement & technical consulting services

Wholesale Trade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

(Sh

are

of

Sta

te J

ob

s)

Jobs Share

Wholesale Trade

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Grocery & Related Product WholesalersElectronic markets & agents & brokersMisc. nondurable goods merchant wholesalersMachinery & supply merchant wholesalersCommercial equip. merchant wholesalers