The Rise of Social Forecasting

www.crowdworx.com www.facebook.com/crowdworx www.twitter.com/crowdworx

Product managers

Own sales force Other departments or business units

Optional: External analysts and experts etc.

Optional: Consumers

Idea: Bundling the collective intelligence of individuals inside and outside organizations for better forecasts

Why Social Forecasting? Everybody has insights; Social Forecasting collects and transforms them into one number

Crowdsourcing Wisdom of Crowds

Incentives Efficiently aggregate distributed information .

* Sources: www.CrowdWorx.com

Proven high-precision forecasts on various topics Forecasts are updated automatically in real-time Lower cost than traditional forecasting methods

How it works: Participants trade their opinions on the CrowdWorx Enterprise website with only 2 clicks

Web browser CrowdWorx

website

Results in Excel after

a few days

START: On the main page users see all ongoing forecasts of the company and can choose in which ones to participate

try it…

try it…

Example “Forecast unit sales for next 4 calendar weeks (CW)” Sales can be forecasted at any level, e.g. by region, by segment.

Pick the week you want to forecast

Users have an incentive to give their best forecast in order to win; Players who don’t have knowledge will self-select not to forecast

Enter your forecast

The more confident you are the more you

can stake

try it…

Results of all forecasts go to an Excel report for management

The crowd forecast is updated in

real-time

try it…

Results

Incentive to forecast as good as possible

Performance-based rewards

Interaction with the crowd

People also report how sure they are about their knowledge

Proven higher forecasting accuracy

Forecast is updated automatically in real-time

Low cost

Simple 2-click usage

Fun & recognition

Incentives

Idea

Crowd- sourcing

Social Forecasting

Industry leaders are using CrowdWorx to optimize decisions with the power of safe & secure Crowdsourcing

Demand planning of new products

Unit sales forecasting of single products (SKUs)

Market trends and demand forecasting

Evaluation of innovations in ICT industry

EXAMPLES

New products, strategy, market trends

90% cost reduction vs. internal process, same accuracy (80%)

22% higher forecasting accuracy vs. internal process

Early warning signals in a highly volatile market (agribusiness)

Knowledge of 240,000 employees is turned into one number, which goes directly to the CEO

25,000 opinions were merged into crips and clear quantitative KPIs

Client example: Enterprise-wide Social Forecasting with 240,000 employees at global Telco firm

Topics include

• New products

• Market trends

• New customer count

• Dollar exchange rates

• Technology trends

• And more…

1. Manager has a forecasting question

2. Relevant employee groups get mail about new question

3. Employees have max. 5 days to submit their opinions

4. After max. 1 week the forecast is on the managers desk

?

read more…

Client example: Market forecasting in global agricultural markets

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2-Jun 6-Jun 10-Jun 14-Jun 18-Jun

US Soybean Acreage in 2008, in mio. acres

Actual acreage 74,5 million acres

CrowdWorx forecast 74,4 million acres

Social Forecasting

gathers employee

opinions until the

social forecast

achieves an optimal

equilibrium

read more…

0%

1%

2%

3%

0% 1% 2% 3%

Act

ual

ou

tco

me

CrowdWorx Forecast

Forecasted market shares vs. actual per product

Client example: New product sales forecasting at a large retail chain

Each dot is one forecasted

product

Employees social

forecast correlates with

actual sales 81%!

Traditional forecasting

with test sales has 10

times the cost of

CrowdWorx

read more…

Client example: Demand planning at a global Consumer Goods manufacturer

Demand forecasting accuracy, in %

CrowdWorx

85,3%

Internal

69,5%

90% 81% 84%

November December January

CrowdWorx Henkel method

CrowdWorx’ social

forecast significantly

surpasses the client’s

current forecasting

method!

Average accuracy

read more…

3,8%

6,4%

8,5%9,5%

10,0%

11,4% 11,6%12,2%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

Forsa Allens

bach

CROWD

WORX

Forsch.

Wahlen

Emnid Infratest

dimap

GMS ARD

Wahltipp

Example: General Election in Germany 2009

Forecasting error of pollsters vs. CrowdWorx Social Forecasting

Number of participants

1000 1000 89 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Accurate and fast

forecasts for a

fraction of the cost of

traditional surveys

Cost reduction by using less test sales or other traditional

methods

Expected profit from avoiding stock-outs

Annual cost of working hours for

CrowdWorx participation of 500

participants

Expected profit from avoiding stock-

overs

One-time CrowdWorx project

and license cost

Additional profit from implementing

CrowdWorx

CrowdWorx is not just a game – it creates significant value!

Cost & benefit (per year)*

kEUR

* Sanitized client example

Areas of Application: CrowdWorx is Social Decision Support for better management decisions in a variety of areas

•How many units will we sell in the 3rd & 4th quarter of this year?

•What will be our market share in segment A in China in 2015?

Sales & Operations Planning

•Which newproduct concepts should be part of our product range?

•Should we follow the current hybrid drive technology trend?

Innovation management

•Will platform P90 be ready for the planned release date?

•How much capacity should we allocate for maintenance work?

Project management

Social Forecasting has 6 key success factors

Participants Forecasting-

topics

Management Support

Incentives

Platform Commu-nication

Forecasting with

CrowdWorx

For white papers, case studies and more visit our website

E-Mail: team@crowdworx.com

Web: www.crowdworx.com

Phone: +49-30-224-121-76 (Berlin)

+49-89-61 066-793 (Munich)

+48-61-885-77-02 (Poznan)

+1-617-763-8082 (Boston)

Fax: +48-61-885-77-15