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China mobile phone market report, presented by thinkbank market research & consulting. Mobile phone market for the entire year of 2011.
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China Mobile Phone Market
Monthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report
Dec, 2011
博思咨询公司Beijing Hong Kong
January,2012
HU Yang
a thinkbank report
Special edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the
trends that are shaping and will transform the future of Chinese mobile world.
Presented by retail.panel
3
Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check
4
…Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches
Size Share Product Price Subscriber
Table of Contents
5
Key Figures in Dec-11
Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price
235 Million
2011 YTD M-size
20.5Million
11.6 Million
9.6 Million
74 pct
Dec-11 M-size
Dec-11 ASP
3G Sales Units in Dec-11
3G subscriber new addition in Dec-11
185 USD
Mobile phone penetration +17.3% Y/Y
+6.9%M/M
+27.5% Y/Y
6
+11.0%M/M
CM=3.2M
CU=3.5M
CT=3.1M
Market Size Summary / 2011
235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011.
2011 Year to Date Market Size // Dec, 2011
YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology
YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type
235 Million units
+17.3% Year-on-year
2G Device Market (Million) 3G Device Market (Million)
GSM 63.3(27%) TD-SCDMA 27.6(12%)
GPRS/EDGE 45.7(19%) WCDMA 49.5(21%)
CDMA1X 19.0(8%) EVDO 30.0(13%)
Market Type Sales (M) Percentage %
Phones with CTA(1) 235 86.3%
White-box (without CTA) 16.3 6.0%
Grey market(2) 21.0 7.7%
(1)CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology
(2)Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas.
***Market size in this report are referring to CTA market size unless there is specific notation.
+17.3% robust growth through 2011
• China mobile phone retail market size witnessed rapid
growth in 2011, reached 235 million in 2011, up 17.3%
y/y. It’s worthy notice that market size in 2nd half of
2011 grew remarkably +27%, mainly driven by
smartphones, which also indicates dramatic growth
rate in 2012.
• 3G market size increased rapidly at the shrink of 2G
market, to 128 million or 54% of total market in the
entire 2011.
• WCDMA phones outperform that of TD-SCDMA &
EVDO in 2011, registered 49.5 million units due to
more diversified brands and products. While TD-
SCDMA and EVDO continued to suffer from more or
less the same problem of weak products and limited
phone manufacturers.
• White-box market encountered slowing down because
of 3G and smart phone growth.
7
17.7
19.2 18.7
17.6
19.2 18.6
21.8
20.1 20.5
21.9
19.2
20.5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 2010 2011
Monthly Market Size Development
20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole year with 235 million units or
+17.3% y/y growth. Market growth accelerated in the 2nd half of 2011, grew by +27% y/y.
Total Market (million units) 3G Market (million units)
Total Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 3G Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth %
20.5 +6.9 +27.5 11.6 +11.0 +122%
Total Market Size Development (2G + 3G) in millions
8
China 3G Market Size Development by Technology // 2009~Now (M units)
3G Market Size Trend by Technology
WCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the end of 2011.
9
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9
1.3 1.7 1.9
2.4 2.3 2.7
3.7 3.1
3.7 3.6
4.5 4.8
5.2
6.1 6.6
7.6 7.3
8.4 8.6 9.0
9.6
10.5
11.2
10.5
11.6
y = 0.0088x2 + 0.0256x - 0.2445 R² = 0.9925
0
5
10
15
2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
EVDO
TD-SCDMA
WCDMA
3G Total
WCDMA
TD-SCDMA
EVDO
47%
26%
27%
2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11
2G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value share due to lower ASP of 2G
phones.
2G Market = 8.9M units
(43% of China Market)
(GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)
10
27.1%
19.3%
6.7% 6.0% 4.9%
4.7%
3.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.7%
21.3%
NOKIA
Samsung
Gionee
OPPO
Tianyu
BBK
Lenovo
LG
Motorola
ZTE
Others
2G Market = 1.4B US$
(25% of China Market)
(GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)
26.5%
15.7%
11.3% 7.3%
7.1%
4.3%
3.3%
2.6%
2.2%
1.5% 18.2%
Nokia
Samsung
OPPO
BBK
Gionee
Lenovo
Tianyu
Motorola
LG
DOOV
Others
3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11
With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, Nokia still held 19.8% value share and
ranked #2 in 3G market.
3G Market =2.4B US$
(75% of China Market)
(TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)
11
28.3%
19.8%
14.8%
6.3%
5.2%
4.3%
4.3%
3.8%
2.9%
2.5% 7.7% Samsung
Nokia
Apple
Motorola
Huawei
ZTE
HTC
Coolpad
SonyEricsson
Lenovo
Others
3G Market =11.6M units
(57% of China Market)
(TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)
21.4%
13.0%
11.0%
10.4%
8.3%
5.2%
5.0%
3.3%
2.6%
2.3%
17.6%
Samsung
Huawei
ZTE
NOKIA
Lenovo
Apple
Coolpad
HTC
Motorola
SonyEricsson
Others
3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share Development
Nokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, however, it seems that Samsung failed to grab
the opportunity. China local manufacturers ZTE & Huawei gained remarkable market share growth in 2011.
100%=
14% 11% 12% 11% 11% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 15% 18%
6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%
6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5%
5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 5%
30% 32% 26% 27% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15%
15% 12% 10%
5% 6% 8% 8%
9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
6% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 11% 14% 11% 14% 13%
23% 19% 19% 20% 21% 21% 23% 23% 24% 24% 22% 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Samsung
Huawei
ZTE
NOKIA
Lenovo
Apple
Coolpad
HTC
Motorola
SonyEricsson
Others
3G Market Top10 Brand Shares Development
6.1 6.6 7.6 7.3 8.4 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.5 11.6
12
Brand Market Share Trend
Nokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catching up quickly. In 3G
market, Nokia was going down dramatically and Lenovo in particularly was growing dramatically in Q4.
13
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Samsung
Nokia
2G+3G Market Brand Shares Trend 3G Market Brand Shares Trend
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Huawei
ZTE
Lenovo
Gionee
Tianyu
Coolpad
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Samsung
Huawei
ZTE
Nokia
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Lenovo
Apple
Coolpad
HTC
Motorola
WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed by Nokia with 20.9% m-share &
nearly 1.1 million units shipment in Dec-11.
Samsung, 25.7%
NOKIA, 20.9%
Apple, 11.0%
Lenovo, 8.4%
ZTE, 5.9%
HTC, 5.0%
Huawei, 3.9%
Motorola, 3.6%
SonyEricsson, 2.6%
Coolpad, 2.4%
Others, 10.5%
# BrandDec-11
M-Share
M-Share
changeSales K
1 Samsung 25.7% (1.9) 1397
2 NOKIA 20.9% (5.1) 1135
3 Apple 11.0% 3.0 600
4 Lenovo 8.4% 1.7 457
5 ZTE 5.9% (0.0) 323
6 HTC 5.0% 1.0 269
7 Huawei 3.9% 1.0 210
8 Motorola 3.6% (0.3) 197
9 SonyEricsson 2.6% 0.2 143
10 Coolpad 2.4% 1.0 130
11 MI 1.8% 1.8 100
12 LG 1.7% (0.6) 95
13 Tianyu 1.1% (0.1) 62
14 BlackBerry 1.0% 0.7 55
15 Gionee 0.8% 0.1 45
16 OPPO 0.8% (0.1) 45
17 BBK 0.8% 0.4 43
18 Hisense 0.5% 0.3 27
19 CHANGHONG 0.5% 0.3 27
20 Dopod 0.3% (0.1) 18
14
EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% unit share, which can be
attributed to a range of best selling CT customized thousand-yuan Android smart phones.
Huawei, 26.3%
Samsung, 22.2%
ZTE, 7.1%
Coolpad, 6.1%
Haier, 4.0% SonyEricsson, 3.3%
HTC, 2.9%
LG, 2.4%
EMI, 2.1%
BenWee, 2.1%
Others, 21.4%
# BrandDec-11
M-Share
M-Share
changeSales K
1 Huawei 26.3% (2.8) 836
2 Samsung 22.2% (0.9) 708
3 ZTE 7.1% (1.9) 225
4 Coolpad 6.1% (1.8) 196
5 Haier 4.0% 0.5 128
6 SonyEricsson 3.3% 0.3 105
7 HTC 2.9% (0.7) 91
8 LG 2.4% 1.3 77
9 EMI 2.1% 0.9 68
10 BenWee 2.1% 0.9 68
11 Hisense 1.9% 0.9 61
12 EPHONE 1.8% 0.9 58
13 Motorola 1.8% (3.0) 58
14 SHARP 1.3% (0.2) 41
15
TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no.1 manufacturer with 24.1% and
followed by Lenovo with 16.5%, Huawei with 15.4%.
ZTE, 24.1%
Lenovo, 16.5%
Huawei, 15.4%
Samsung, 12.9%
Coolpad, 8.4%
Tianyu, 4.2%
Nokia, 2.4%
Gionee, 2.2%
LG, 1.4%
Hisense, 1.6%
Others, 10.9%
# BrandDec-11
M-Share
M-Share
changeSales K
1 ZTE 24.1% 0.8 729
2 Lenovo 16.5% 1.5 500
3 Huawei 15.4% 0.5 468
4 Samsung 12.9% (0.1) 392
5 Coolpad 8.4% (1.8) 255
6 Tianyu 4.2% 1.1 127
7 NOKIA 2.4% 0.1 71
8 Gionee 2.2% 0.1 68
9 LG 1.4% (1.3) 43
10 Hisense 1.6% (0.4) 48
11 DESAY 1.2% (0.9) 35
12 Bird 1.1% (0.8) 34
13 Motorola 1.4% (0.1) 43
14 ASUS 1.3% 0.4 38
15 HTC 0.9% (0.1) 26
16 Mastone 0.9% 0.1 27
17 Haier 0.9% 0.5 29
18 SonyEricsson 0.7% 0.2 21
19 T-SMART 0.5% 0.1 16
20 SICT 0.4% 0.1 11
21 DELL 0.2% (0.2) 7
22 BlackBerry 0.3% 0.1 11
23 Dopod 0.2% (0.0) 8
24 Postcom 0.1% (0.1) 3
25 TCL 0.2% 0.1 6 16
2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or 2.4 million units shipment in Dec-11.
17
NOKIA, 27.1%
Samsung, 19.3%
Gionee, 6.7% OPPO, 6.0%
Tianyu, 4.9%
BBK, 4.7%
Lenovo, 3.7%
LG, 2.6%
Motorola, 2.0%
ZTE, 1.7%
Others, 21.3%
# BrandDec-11 M-
Share
M-Share
changeSales K
1 NOKIA 27.1% 0.8 2407
2 Samsung 19.3% (0.5) 1719
3 Gionee 6.7% 0.1 592
4 OPPO 6.0% 0.2 536
5 Tianyu 4.9% 0.9 437
6 BBK 4.7% 0.0 419
7 Lenovo 3.7% (0.4) 327
8 LG 2.6% (0.0) 229
9 Motorola 2.0% 0.2 176
10 ZTE 1.7% (0.2) 149
11 Huawei 1.3% (0.2) 116
12 Konka 1.2% (0.1) 109
13 Bird 1.0% 0.0 93
14 DOOV 1.0% 0.0 84
15 Philips 0.9% (0.1) 83
16 HOT 0.8% 0.7 74
17 Hisense 0.8% 0.1 67
18 Coolpad 0.7% 0.1 65
19 CHANGHONG 0.7% (0.2) 64
20 Koobee 0.6% 0.0 55
21 DESAY 0.5% 0.1 46
22 AUX 0.5% 0.0 44
23 Haier 0.5% 0.0 43
24 Malata 0.5% (0.1) 42
25 HOSIN 0.4% (0.1) 38
Price Tier Development
80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011.
18
Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY
26.2% 26.3% 24.1% 22.4% 23.0% 25.4% 23.9% 24.2% 27.3% 23.8% 23.9% 24.1% 24.5%
18.8% 17.6% 19.1% 20.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4%
15.2% 16.2% 16.8% 15.4% 17.6%
16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 17.6% 19.7% 18.0% 18.9% 18.4% 17.8% 19.3% 16.7% 17.3%
18.1%
22.2% 21.4% 19.5% 19.9% 17.4% 17.6% 21.3% 21.5% 19.9% 19.9% 21.3% 21.4% 20.3%
6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 7.5% 7.4%
4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 7.4% 7.5% 7.0% 7.2% 8.3% 6.3%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 YTD
>=3000
2500-2999
2000-2499
1500-1999
1000-1499
700-999
400-699
<400
Weighted Average Retail Price Development
3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher than that of EVDO and TD-
SCDMA phones.
19
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WCDMA EVDO TD-SCDMA 2G Overall 3G Overall
Average Retail Price Weighted by Sales Units (CNY)
Display Size and Camera Resolution Trend
Big screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phones with >4.0 screen and >3MP
or 5MP camera will be the mainstream product features in 2012.
52% 42%
29% 34%
45%
49%
44% 30%
4% 9%
25% 32%
2% 4%
2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11
>=5inch
4-4.9inch
3-3.9inch
2-2.9inch
<2inch
Display Size Trend / 2009~now Camera Resolution Trend / 2009~now
33% 28% 20% 18%
22% 21%
19% 19%
15%
11%
7% 4%
17%
22%
23%
18%
9% 13%
17%
20%
3% 5% 11%
16%
2% 4%
2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11
>8MP
8MP
5MP
3MP
2MP
1MP
300K
None-cmr
20
Smart Phone Market
Android phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, almost
doubled in 2011.
21
1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7
2.2 2.1 2.5 2.7
2.4 2.7
2.4 2.0 2.1
1.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.2 0.4 0.3
0.4
0.8 0.9
1.4 1.7
2.1
2.6 3.1 4.2 4.6
4.0 4.2
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
0.0 0.1
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.3
0.4 0.4
0.6 0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4 0.6
11% 9%
8% 8% 9% 10%
11% 11% 10%
11% 10% 10%
12% 12% 12%
10%
11% 12% 11% 12% 11%
13% 14% 14% 15%
19% 20%
26% 28%
29% 29%
33%
36% 36% 35%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Symbian
Android
Apple
Microsoft
Others
SM as % of Total
Smart Phone Market Size Split by OS / Smart Phone Penetration Rate
3G Market / Dec-11
11.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G phone
users still keep with 2G services.
22
51.2, 40%
36.4, 29%
40, 31%
CM TD-SCDMA
CT EVDO
CU WCDMA
3G Subscriber Share by Operator (in million) China Total Accumulated 3G subscribers as the end of Dec-11 is 128 million
Operator Network Technology
Dec-11 New Addition (M)
Subscriber Device
Operating by CU
3.2 (33%) 3.0 (26%)
Operating by CT 3.1 (32%) 3.2 (28%)
Operating by CMCC 3.5 (35%) 5.4 (46%)
China Total 9.8 11.6
Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11
As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 million new additions in
2011. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 128 million, i.e. 13% of total.
Total: 199.6 million (20.5%)
• 2G: 159.6 [80%]
• 3G: 40.0 [20%]
Accumulated 3G subs.: 32.2M
987 million mobile phone subscribers as the
end of 2011 in China, representing
the nationwide mobile phone
penetration rate of 74%.
128 million of 3G subscribers, i.e. 13% of China
total mobile subscribers.
Total: 649.6 million (66.6%)
• 2G: 598 [92%]
• 3G: 51.2 [8%]
Accumulated 3G subs.: 65.6M
Total: 126 million (12.9%)
• 2G: 89.6 [71%]
• 3G: 36.4 [29%]
Accumulated 3G subs.: 51M
China total subscriber and 3G new addition data are quoted from MIIT; By operator data are coming from operators’ public release.
Please note that There is slight discrepancies with MIIT & operator data.
23
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