The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing AsiaAlbert ChingMasters of City Planning Candidate, 2012Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore

Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car?

Mobile-driven intelligence infrastructure way ahead transport infrastructure in most developing countries• 860 million phones vs. 13 million cars in India• Mobile environment extremely competitive with some applications like mobile

banking ahead of most developed contexts• Smartphones, which will leapfrog the PC, is expected to be ubiquitous in developing

countries within 3-7 years

Entrepreneurs across developing Asia retrofitting intelligence onto existing transport modes in small doses, mostly to make para-transit more demand responsive• The technology developed is unique in each context, reflecting the independent

nature of these experiments

Early case studies of mash-ups have shown potential, unexpected impact of intelligent retrofits to scale beyond addressing a deficiency in a specific transport user experience• In Fazilka, intelligence coupled with the age-old rickshaw has spurred improvements

in the transport vehicle itself and also new investments in road space for non-motorised vehicles

• In Bengalaru, a mobile application developed for a specific market has not only scaled to users beyond the intended audience but may also produce valuable customer data and a means to directly reach out to public/shared transport users

How to and how much to accelerate this experimentation remains an open questio• Technologically, applications do not seem complex enough to warrant cutting-edge

research• Entrepreneurs themselves may not want free access to technology since it helps

preserve their competitive advantage and off the shelf technology still needs to be localized

• Where is the next big opportunity to seed an intelligent retrofit of transport? Can this be in part developed externally in Singapore or at MIT?

Executive Summary

The problem

Rush hour traffic in Jakarta

The problem

Pre-rush hour traffic in Jakarta

Rush hour traffic in Bangkok

Rush hour traffic in Kuala Lumpur

“Transport-related CO2 emissions

expected to increase 57%

worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the

majority of these will come from

private vehicles”(ADB 2009)

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (city-scale)

Gov’t with limited resources

Public transport poor

1Low ridership

Poor with limited

mobility

Middle- & upper-

class purchase private 2-

or 4-wheeler*

Increases congestio

n

City expands

Investment in road infrastructure*

Poor pedestrianwalkways

2

Air pollutionUnsustainable

levels of CO2 + GHGs

3

Mass transit extremely

costly, difficult to

implement, and does not

reduce congestion

(Gakenheimer 2011)

“Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related

CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in

Asia”(ADB 2009)

“The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on

non-motorised and public transport. The

poor have a more limited range of

destinations, being more focused on core

destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002)

Walk-ing

Quality of mobility

(no. of trips,accessibility

to destinations, comfort,

convenience,

productivity)

Personal income

Bicycle

Para-transit

Private 2-wheeler

Private auto

Priv

ate

auto

Priv

ate

2-wh

eele

r

Bicy

cle

Public transport

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (rational consumer)

Auto lock-in*

Cost

per

trip

In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles Once consumers are locked-in,

they may not perceive the effective increase in cost per trip

“The costs of a single automobile journey are systematically underestimated because they

are perceived primarily in terms of fuel costs” (UNEP 2009)

1

2

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (aspirational consumer)

The demand for private car use is inelastic and in part a result of the

billions of dollars spent by the automotive industry

(Gardener and Abraham 2007)

Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures

Most cities in developing Asia still with low per capita incomes and motorization rates

2

3Singapore

($43K, 150)

Hong Kong($39K

, 80)

Sydney / Melbourne

($34K, 630)

Tokyo*($30K, 275)Seoul*

($23K, 220)

Kuala Lumpur($12

K, 270)

Bangkok($7K, ~200)

Dhaka($1K, 2)

Unre

stra

ined

motor

izatio

n

Beijing / Shanghai($7K,

80)Jakarta($4K, 50)

Manilla($3K, 30)

Bangalore

($3K, 12)

Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)

Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP)

1Low motorization

In previous studies, strongest determinant of car

ownership rates was income levels

Auto

s pe

r 10

00

peop

le

Restrained motorization

Car ownership income threshold

Acharya & Morichi(2007)$5-$6,000 PPP

Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Motorization 2004 figures

. . . although lock-in may happen at lower motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher densities

Bangkok(~200, 65)

Kuala Lumpur(240,

8)

Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20)

Singapore (150, 93)

Hong Kong(80,

70)

Tokyo*(275, 50)

Seoul*(220, 90)

Do higher densities limit short-term motorization

and/or eventually lead to lower density development?

Dhaka(2, 89)

Beijing / Shanghai

(80, 150)Manilla(30, 78)

Bangalore

(12, 130)

Auto lock-in lineJakarta

(50, 100) Low motorization cities

all expected to increase urban populations by 10-

90%

Auto

s pe

r 10

00

peop

le

Urban density(Persons per hectare)

Manage private

motorization

Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’

Invest in new public/shared

transport assets & infrastructure

1 2

Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework

(+) BRT(+) Metro(+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes

AMake private

vehicles more costly to

drive

Make private vehicles less attractive to

drive(+) Vehicle taxes(+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes(+) Parking fees

(-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth

(+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes(+) Congestion*(+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft*

(-) Sprawling land use(-) Road construction(-) Car commercials and billboards*

*Unintentional

Restrict Car Use

Improve Auto-Substitutes

Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time

1

Provides real-time travelsupply information for users

2

Provides information on new destinations4

Enables productive useof travel time3

Can become a new vehicle for travel payments

5

Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing, perhaps most value-adding product in human history

Personalization

Singapore Kuala Lumpur

Bangkok Jakarta Bangalore Dhaka

16

27

17

2 1 0

75

106

8173

63

40

Private Autos per 100Mobile Phones per 100

Mobile phone-driven intelligence infrastructure way ahead of transportation infrastructure in most developing Asian cities

4.7x

3.9x

4.9x35x

66x201x

Not just mobile devicesIndia boasts not just 860 million phones vs. 13 million cars but also the most competitive mobile phone market in the world. the world’s lowest telephony rates and a new 3G network

Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand

Creates sharing systems for private modes

Increases the opportunity cost of driving

Intelligence canenlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics

The best thing to happen to public transit is the invention of the smartphone

Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community

Makes sharing and shared transport super cool!Responsive environments like piano-playing staircases and social networking may help to create new, attractive experiences that can only happen in shared space

1 2 3 4

(In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand

Provides economic benefit to drivers

Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor)

In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is creating new possibilities that may potentially deter private auto ownership

Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years

Most Asian cultures based in dense environments already very familiar with sharing

Time-sensitive commuter

Social commuterProductivity-conscious commuter

Special occasion commuter

Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched February 2011

Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to create sustainable profit from these transport efficiency gains

Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30%

Manage private

motorization

Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’

Invest in new public/shared

transport assets & infrastructure

Improve existing transport user

experience

1 2

Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework

(+) BRT(+) Metro(+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes

A B

“In most developing cities, public/shared transport share is very high – maintaining those market shares is the first priority”- Chhavi Dhinga, GTZ

Make private vehicles

more costly to drive

Make private vehicles less attractive to

drive(+) Vehicle taxes(+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes(+) Parking fees

(-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth

(+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes(+) Congestion*(+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft*

(-) Sprawling land use(-) Road construction(-) Car commercials and billboards*

*Unintentional

Restrict Car Use

Improve Auto-Substitutes

Mobile-driven intelligence may help serve the last mile in transport user adoption

3 Key Questions

1 To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia?

Are current experiments sustainable and scalable (enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)?

Are there impacts of these experiments that go beyond its intended design?

2

3

To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? 1

Field Visit | summer 2011 field research

Singapore

Kuala Lumpur

Jakarta

Bangkok

Dhaka

Fazilka

Delhi

Mumbai

Bengalaru

Makes existing shared modes more efficient and

on-demand

Safety /Payments

1 21 2 3 4

SINGAPORE

DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/

FAZILKA

DID NOT VISIT

KUALA LUMPUR

JAKARTA

BANGKOK

DHAKA

BusArrival

CMakes

driving a car easier

5Private vehicle-sharing

VehicleSecurity

Car Pooling

MobileProductiv

ity

Shared Transport

Social Fun

Navigation

Congestion

Tracking

RailArrival

On-Demand

Auto Taxi

On-Demand

Auto Taxi On-

DemandCycle

Rickshaw

On-Demand

Auto Ricksha

w

BusArrival

BicycleSharing

Car Sharing

Fare-Tracking /

Safety Alerts

Fare-Tracking

Constellation of Experiments | August 2011

On-DemandMotor-cycle

SINGAPORE

DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/

FAZILKA

DID NOT VISIT

KUALA LUMPUR

JAKARTA

BANGKOK

DHAKA Constellation of Experiments | August 2011

Factors that encourage experimentation

Significant user transport problemMoney | Commercial applicationTransport partnershipTechnicalexpertiseEntrepreneurial activity, low density, government regulations

Are current experiments sustainable and scalable (enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)?2

Selected Case Studies

FazilkaBengalar

u

Kuala Lumpur

Jakarta

Delhi

Entrepreneurs = Low-Cost Leapfrog Strategy

Local entrepreneurs +

Poor transport user experience

= Economic and/or social value

1 2 3 4 5

A

1

2

Are these experiments happening in developing Asia?

Are current experiments sustainable?

Significant impact beyond intended design

3

How scalable are current experiments beyond the intended context? Are there unexpected (and unintended) benefits to the intelligent retrofit?

Rickshaw drivers in Fazilka, 2011 Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs

2

Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-CabsFazilka – Compact city of 100K in the northwest Indian province of Punjab, 10km from the Pakistan border, “where India begins”

Solution – World’s first dial-a-rickshaw service. 500 independent cycle rickshaw drivers operating in Fazilka divided into 9 one sq km sectors and slowly incorporated into a more demand-responsive networked fleet. Users dial the local chai wallah in their zone when they require service and the first available rickshaw driver in the queue is dispatched. Waiting times usually under 10 minutes.

Problem – Originally inspired as a way for entrepreneur’s mother to access the local market. A majority of younger population moving out of Fazilka towards larger urban hubs like Chandigarh and New Delhi.

Launched in 2008 by Navdeep Asija, an IIT-Delhi PhD student and traffic safety expert and the Graduate Welfare Association of Fazilka

1 km

1 km

50-60 rickshaw drivers + 1 chai wallah call center

Figure is illustrative; zone demarcations and call center location may not be exact

Overview

Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs

Sustainability

Benefits – • +15% profit, 20-25 rupees per day• Free health care• Tour guide training (in tourist cities like

Patiala)• Access to credit to purchase new, less

labor-intensive eco-cab at low rate of interest (4%)

• Access to add’l revenue from selling water (8 rupees)

• Unquantifiable psychic benefits of being an on-call service provider, rather than as a cheap mode of transport

Costs – • Code of conduct incl. adherence to price

structureRisks –• Some cycle rickshaw drivers do not want

add’l business and a few have exploited customers

Increase in rickshaw network efficiency. Calling service nets an add’l 30-40 calls per sector per day, or 1-2 add’l higher value return trips (20/25 rupees vs. 10) per rickshaw driver. Each rickshaw driver makes 12-15 trips per day.

Cycle Rickshaw Drivers +++Key stakeholders

Gains of Intelligence

10%

Entrepreneur - Customers+Org Type – Non-ProfitRevenue – • Minimal; Limited

advertising on new Eco-cabs

Costs – • Calling costs 500 SIM

cards donated by BSNL• Investments in new Eco-

cabs 10,000 rupees ($250 each)

• Managerial costs (2)Funding – • Self-funded with donationsProfit –• Loss; Strategy to keep

costs (incl. intelligence) as low as possible for easier replicability

Risks

Benefits – • Door-to-door,

on-demand rickshaw service

• Standardized, transparent pricing

Costs – • Cost of call (50

paise per minute, lowest in world)

• No surcharge for on-demand

Risks –• Switch to

motorised modes e.g. two-wheelers

Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs

Scalability

India Express, a leading newspaper in Punjab publishes a front-page article on the Fazilka eco-cab experiment

1

2

High Court judge based in Chandigarh saw article and issued a “suo moto,” or court-ordered mandate, to introduce eco-cabs throughout Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana

Patiala (1.9M)55 eco-cabs launched in 2011

Amritsar (1.2M)80 eco-cabs launched

Ludhiana (1.7M)Source of eco-cabmanufacturing

Sangrur (80k)20 eco-cabs launched

3 3

3

3

Key Challenges• Slow process of adoption

by cycle rickshaw drivers; Requires significant face-to-face time in each town

• Local partners in each city to advocate and fund experiments

• Management of larger fleet including scaling technology to centralised call centers in bigger cities

• Linguistic and political differences in state of Haryana

(10k population)

Chandigarh (900k)Eco-cabs to be launched

Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs

Leapfrog ImpactWalking Cycling Cycle

rickshawOn-demand

cycle rickshaw

On-demand eco-cab1 2 3 4 5 6

Car-free zones6

India is an ancient society. For many years, only few people had knowledge. It was blood by chance.

The mobile phone is a godsend . . . [and] information can break the stranglehold of the ovarian lottery sealed in India’s old hierarchies and shackles.

- Sachin Pilot, India Minister of Communications and Information

Technology

Google CIO Douglas Merrill’s 3 Types of Innovation

Technology has NOT been the panacea to solve user transport problems -- most observed innovation required has been incremental - the localization of existing technologies to a specific context

Role of Cutting-Edge Technologies

. . . but incremental innovation can have positive side effects beyond solving a specific user problem and may pave the way for more transformational innovations . . .

Next Steps . . .

1 How to and how fast to accelerate experimentation?

Where is the next big opportunity to seed an intelligent retrofit of transport? Can this be in part developed externally in Singapore or at MIT?

2

GPS, algorithmic optimization

Radio broadcast

Territory-based queuing

User request geo-coded to a location – algorithm matches the closest, available taxi in the area based on GPS location; Taxi sends SMS or signal to confirm requestEx. Comfort Delgro

User request broadcast to entire fleet over radio– first driver to respond takes the request Ex. Taxis in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok

User request called into locally-based chai wallah – first driver in fixed territory based queue takes the request Ex. Fazilka Eco-cabs

Avg wait time range: 4-30 minutes

Wait time range: 5-10 minutes

Custom, One-Off Tech Development

The Future of Urban Mobility

SponsorSingapore-MIT Alliance for Future Urban Mobility

Principal AdvisorsChris Zegras, MIT Asst. Prof. of Urban Studies and PlanningPaul Barter, NUS Asst. Prof. at LKY School of Public Policy

EntrepreneursNavdeep Asija, Fazilka Eco-CabsRavee Aahluwalia, Patiala Eco-CabsSundara Raman, Ideophone Anenth Guru, Ideophone Sandeep Bhaskar, IdeophoneSanjeev Garg, Delhi CyclesAtul Jain, Delhi CycleHR Murali, Namma CycleAnthony Tan, My TeksiHooi Ling Tan, My TeksiNadiem Makarim, GO-JekArup Chakti, NITS

Leading ThinkersApiwat Ratanwahara, Chulalongkorn UniversitySorawit Narupiti, Chulalongkorn UniversityZia Wadud, BUETCharisma Chowdhury, BUETMoshahida Sultana, University of DhakaGeetam Tewari, IIT-DelhiAnvita Arora, IIT-DelhiRajinder Ravi, cycle rickshaw expertTri Tjahjono, Univesiti IndonesiaJamillah Mohamad, University of Malaya

AdvocatesDebra Efroymson, Work for a Better BangladeshMaruf Rahman, Work for a Better BangladeshAkshay Mani, EMBARQMadhav Pai, EMBARQChhavi Dhingra, GTZ-IndiaEric Zusman, IGESYoga Adiwinarto, ITDP IndonesiaRestiti Sekartini, ITDP Indonesia

GovernmentAnisur Rahman, Dhaka Transport and Coordination BoardRajendar Kumar, Indian Dept of Information TechnologyAnil Sethi, Mayor of FazilkaProdyut Dutt, ADB IndiaPenny Lukito, BAPPENAS IndonesiaFirdaus Ali, Jakarta Water Provision

IndustryRD Sharma, HI-BIRD BicyclesComfort Cab MalaysiaPornthip Konghun, Googlers ThailandGautam Anand, Google SingaporeRahul Desai, Google SingaporeEvan Sidarto, Google SingaporeJames McClure, Google SingaporeKapil Goswami, Google India

Acknowledgements

Perception that only poor people cycle in India

For the aspiring Asian, however, compared to a private automobile, the alternatives leave much to be desired

Un-Marketed

Dilapidated public / private bus service in Dhaka, 2011

Overcrowded

Questionable taxi drivers in Bangkok esp for women,

2011

Unsafe

Overcharging auto-rickshaw driver in Bangalore, 2011

Unclear Fares

Inexperienced driver, town to village public transport service in Fazilka, 2011

Unclear Routes

30 min wait for radio taxis in Kolkata, 2011

Long Waits

30 min wait for radio taxis in Kolkata, 2011

Idling cycle rickshaw drivers in Patiala, 2011

Not-On-Demand