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InterTradeIreland – Quarterly Business Monitor44102221
2
• Background And Methodology 3
• All Island Business Confidence 4
• Economic Conditions 26
• Cross Border Trade 40
• Migrant Workers 61
• Northern Ireland Specific Business Confidence And Economic Trends67
• Republic Of Ireland Specific Business Confidence AndEconomic Trends85
Table Of Contents
3
• InterTradeIreland Quarterly Business Monitor – Quarter 3 (covering the October to December 2008 period), was conducted between 12th – 23rd January 2009
• All interviews conducted via telephone, from the Millward Brown Ulster Telephone Centre in Belfast
• Total sample size : 1000 businesses per quarter• 500 Northern Ireland• 500 Republic of Ireland
> Note: This report does not contain Q2 (2008 / 2009) tracking data
• Sample comprises private sector organizations across the All Island Business marketplace
• Sample controlled by company size (number of employees) and industry sector
• All respondents at most senior level in organization• CEO / MD / proprietor
• All research was conducted in accordance with the Market Research Society ethical Code of Conduct
• (This report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from the authors)
Background And Methodology
4
5
• During the third quarter of the 2008 / 2009 tracking (October - December ‘08), excluding seasonal variations, just over 1 in 10 (13%) businesses throughout the island had experienced an increase in turnover. This however, represented a significant decline in trends over the past year. (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 34% - Quarter 3 2008 / 2009 = 13%). The proportion of businesses that experienced a decrease in turnover was higher in the Republic of Ireland (ROI = 61% / NI = 44%), and within the construction (64%) and retail / distribution (58%) sectors. Optimism amongst Irish businesses has also continued to decline, with only 18% anticipating and increase in turnover during the next quarter (January – March ’09), compared to 41% of businesses at the same point last year - 36% were expecting turnover to remain the same, and 39% predicting a decline. Optimism for the incoming quarter was highest amongst those within the professional services and leisure sectors, and lowest within construction, manufacturing and retail / distribution.
• Just over 1 in 10 (11%) Irish businesses recorded an increase in profitability over the past quarter, again revealing significant declines over the year (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 30% - Quarter 3 2008 / 2009 = 11%). Indeed, almost half of businesses (48%) actually recorded a reduction in their profit levels, a trend which was more prevalent amongst ROI businesses (53%) compared to NI (43%). Optimism on profitability for the next quarter also dropped, with under 1 in 5 (17%) businesses throughout Ireland expecting an increase. This projected uplift in profitability has also fallen back continuously since January 2008, when over twice as many companies (36%) envisaged improved profits. Companies within the various service sectors continued to portray a more upbeat prediction for the incoming quarter, relative to the manufacturing, construction and agriculture industry sectors.
Executive Summary
6
• Only 6% of businesses increased employee levels over the past quarter, a trend which also has experienced gradual decline (January ‘08 = 15%) – in contrast, a quarter (25%) of businesses had lowered their staffing numbers over the period, a trend which was again more significant in ROI (30%) relative to NI (19%). Expectations of increased staffing levels over the next quarter stood at 5%, with 14% overall anticipating a decrease. Pessimism was noticeably higher amongst those within the construction (23%) and manufacturing sectors (27%).
• Encouragingly, three quarters (75%) of businesses on the ‘Island’, were optimistic about their company performance over the course of the next three years, with almost 1 in 5 (15%) being ‘very optimistic’, and 3 in 5 (60%) ‘fairly optimistic’. Although optimism has fallen from 84% to 75% over the past year, trends have managed to remain relatively consistent during the last 6 month period. These levels of optimism were consistent across both NI and ROI businesses, although slightly lower in the construction (61%), manufacturing (69%) and agriculture (69%) sectors.
• During Quarter 3, over a third (36%) of businesses throughout Ireland were optimistic that their respective Governments would improve business conditions over the course of the next 3 years, revealing an improvement over the past 6 months (June ’08 = 30%), and indeed matching trends recorded at the same point last year. NI businesses (40%) were noticeably more optimistic about their Government’s intentions compared to their ROI counterparts (31%).
Executive Summary
7
• The most frequently cited spontaneous barriers to company growth over the next twelve months revolved around the economy and market trends (32%), as well as a perceived lack of disposable income (16%). There was a plethora of other barriers mentioned such as reduced consumer spending (9%), a lack of credit and lending (8%), reduced investment (8%), fewer contracts and work opportunities (5%), as well as a decline in consumer confidence (4%).
• When asked what factors would help company performance over the next 12 months, almost 1 in 5 (16%) businesses spontaneously made reference to stability in the banking sector, and hence availability of credit. Other, less frequently cited factors included increased confidence in the economy (7%), higher employment (6%), a reduction in interest rates (6%), more funding and investment (5%), increased government assistance (4%), and a stabilisation of € / £ exchange rate.
Executive Summary
8
‘All Island’ – Business Turnover Over The Past Quarter[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
19
3
38
40
21
4
39
36
23
6
37
34
34
5
36
26
43
3
35
20
53
2
32
13
44
2
36
18
61
3
28
8
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
Period Covering
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
9
53
2
32
13
‘All Island’ – Business Turnover Over The Past Quarter Quarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
9
48
43
0
19
30
50
1
5
28
64
3
15
35
47
3
12
36
50
2
14
25
58
2
12
34
53
2
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000% n =
10
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Business Turnover Over The Next Quarter
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
12
4
41
44
15
4
38
43
15
7
37
41
18
6
40
36
33
6
40
21
39
7
36
18
31
8
39
22
47
6
33
14
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
To increase
To remain the same
To decreaseDon’t know /
NA
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
11
39
7
36
18
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Business Turnover Over The Next QuarterQuarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
6
45
38
11
18
32
42
7
8
31
55
6
20
40
33
7
20
40
35
4
17
35
41
7
25
32
34
9
To increase
To remain the same
To decrease
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
n =
12
‘All Island’ – Business Profitability Over The Past Quarter[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
20
8
41
33
20
8
44
28
20
9
41
30
33
8
38
21
42
4
39
15
48
4
37
11
43
6
36
15
53
3
37
7
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
13
48
4
37
11
‘All Island’ – Business Profitability Over The Past QuarterQuarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
3
48
48
0
11
26
57
6
6
33
59
1
11
44
41
4
13
38
43
5
11
35
48
6
13
35
50
2
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
n =
14
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Business Profitability Over The Next Quarter
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
12
6
41
41
15
7
39
40
13
9
41
36
20
8
41
31
35
8
38
20
37
5
41
17
30
7
43
20
42
4
40
14
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
To increase
To remain the same
To decreaseDon’t know /
NA
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
15
37
5
41
17
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Business Profitability OverThe Next Quarter - Quarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
6
48
43
3
10
39
43
7
11
34
50
5
21
42
32
5
22
45
31
2
14
43
37
6
26
35
32
7
To increase
To remain the same
To decrease
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
n =
16
‘All Island’ – Number Of Employees Over The Past Quarter[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
101
66
22
112
69
17
12
3
70
15
14
2
74
11
25
1
72
9
25
1
68
6
19
1
72
8
30
2
64
7Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
17
25
1
68
6
‘All Island’ – Number Of Employees Over The Past QuarterQuarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
5
83
11
0
11
59
28
1
3
53
43
1
6
70
22
2
5
63
29
2
5
72
22
2
9
73
18
0
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
n =
18
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Number Of Employees Over The Next Quarter
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
61
78
15
43
77
16
63
76
16
62
80
13
12
3
77
8
14
4
77
5
103
80
8
18
4
75
3
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
To increase
To remain the same
To decreaseDon’t know /
NA
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
19
14
4
77
5
‘All Island’ – Expectations For Number Of Employees Over The Next Quarter – Quarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
5
89
6
0
11
57
27
5
1
71
23
5
5
77
12
6
6
78
12
4
4
82
12
2
6
81
11
2
To increase
To remain the same
To decrease
Don’t know / NA
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
n =
20
‘All Island’ – Optimism Regarding Business Performance Over The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
9
3
51
34
104
55
27
10
3
56
28
13
4
61
19
17
4
55
19
15
4
60
15
13
5
59
17
17
4
62
13Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimisticVery pessimistic
(Don’t Know)
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(3) (3) (3) (4) (5) (5) (7) (4)
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
21
15
4
60
15
‘All Island’ – Optimism Regarding Business Performance Over The Next 3 Years – Quarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
9
60
20
9
11
58
16
7
6
55
23
8
18
60
15
4
19
64
11
2
15
62
15
2
21
58
11
5
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimisticVery pessimistic
(Don’t Know) (5) (3) (7) (8) (4) (4) (6) (6)
n =
22
‘All Island’ – Optimism That Government Will Improve Business Conditions Over The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
28
17
38
9
33
26
33
5
34
24
32
5
34
26
31
4
33
31
26
4
35
23
32
4
33
20
36
4
35
28
29
4
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic
(Don’t Know)
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
n=1000%
Quarter 24Jul-Sep’07
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(7) (7) (5) (6) (6) (5) (6) (4)
‘ALL ISLAND’ QUARTER 3
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
23
35
23
32
4
‘All Island’ – Optimism That Government Will Improve Business Conditions Over The Next 3 Years – Quarter 3 Trends By Industry Sector
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
0
43
28
28
6
29
37
23
6
37
30
24
7
29
37
20
6
36
34
16
3
29
39
25
2
36
28
29
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic
(Don’t Know) (5) (0) (4) (3) (7) (8) (4) (6)
n =
24
‘All Island’ – Main Barriers To Company Growth Over Next 12 Months (Spontaneous)
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
32%
16%
9%
8%
8%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
28%
12%
The economy / market trends
Lack of disposable income
Reduced consumer spending
Lack of credit / lending
Lack of investment / funding
Lack of work / contracts
Decline in consumer confidence
Unemployment / lack of jobs
Slow down in the construction industry
Currency / exchange rates
Being a specialist / luxury goods
Cost of resources / overheads
The housing market / property prices
Cash flow
Reduced demand
Others
None / don't know
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
33
16
9
10
8
4
3
3
3
2
3
4
3
2
2
26
12
30
15
10
6
8
6
6
4
4
4
3
2
3
3
2
29
13
Period Covering
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
25
‘All Island’ – Factors That Would Help Company PerformanceOver Next 12 Months (Spontaneous)
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
16%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
14%
25%
Stability in banking sector / availability of credit
Increased confidence in the economy
More employed
Reduced interest rates
Funding / investment
Increased government assistance
Stable exchange rates
Reduced VAT
Increased consumer spending
Lower fuel prices
Growth in construction industry
Consumers to buy / sell property
Reduced living costs
Reduced business costs
Others
None / Don't know
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
15
6
7
6
6
3
7
3
3
2
3
3
1
1
15
27
17
9
5
5
5
5
3
4
2
3
2
1
1
1
13
24
Period Covering
‘All Island’Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
26
27
• As a result of recent global economic conditions and predictions, almost half (46%)
of businesses stated they had revised their targets downwards, a trend which has grown noticeably since April 2008 (31%). Interestingly, these revisions of targets were significantly more prevalent amongst ROI businesses (56%), compared to those in NI (37%).
• Almost 9 in 10 (87%) businesses had noticed a tightening of expenditure by their customers or business counterparts over recent months. Indeed, almost 4 in 5 (78%) businesses stated they had actually revised their own expenditure priorities as a result of the current economic conditions. The proportion of businesses experiencing these actions had again risen noticeably since April 2008, and were more likely to have been implemented by ROI companies.
• Just under 4 in 5 (79%) stated the economic downturn has had an adverse impact on their business (April ’08 = 62%), with 20% experiencing a severe adverse impact, and 59% a moderate adverse impact. The severity of the impact of the downturn was higher amongst small and medium sized enterprises, as well as those businesses located in ROI.
Executive Summary
28
• In terms of potential impact over the next 12 months, over 4 in 5 (81%) believed the economic downturn would have an adverse impact on their business, with some 18% anticipating a severe adverse impact, and 63% a moderate adverse impact. These perceptions were again more prevalent amongst ROI businesses.
• For over 2 in 5 (42%) companies, access to credit such as small business loans and overdrafts during the economic downturn was having an adverse impact on their business. Similarly, over a third (36%) claimed their ability to change existing overdraft or loan conditions was also having a detrimental effect.
• Respondents also stated the economic downturn was having a significant adverse impact on a variety other elements of their business, in particular, their cash flow (68%), followed by the demand for their goods and services (66%), business growth (62%), the cost of doing business (63%), capital spending plans (56%), payment of goods and services delivered (55%), and indeed future employment intentions (46%).
• When asked to specify the single most important issue facing their business through 2009, over a third (34%) cited cash flow, followed closely by the demand for their goods and services (33%). Smaller proportions referred to business and consumer confidence (14%), rising energy costs (8%), and exchange rates (6%).
Executive Summary
29
• At this juncture, businesses were asked to specify what assistance would be of help during the economic downturn. Over a quarter (28%) suggested they required information on how to access finance, with slightly smaller proportions desiring information on cash management (25%), assistance with cost control such as energy, waste, transport etc., (25%), advice on how to speed up payments (20%), and information on new potential cross-border markets (17%).
• In terms of things Government could do to help business during the downturn, over a quarter spontaneously cited the need for borrowing to be made easier (27%), reduced levels of VAT (9%), reduced taxation or tax concessions (7%), help to increase consumer confidence (7%), assistance for small business and SME’s (7%), as well as financial assistance for struggling businesses (6%).
Executive Summary
30
‘All Island’ - Actions Taken in Light Of Recent Global Economic Conditions And Predictions …
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
62
31
51
44
48
46
56
37
40
56
Yes
No
(Don’t Know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(7) (5) (5) (6) (4)
Does your business intend to revise its targets downwards?‘All Island’
2007/2008 2008/2009
31
‘All Island’ - Actions Taken in Light Of Recent Global Economic Conditions And Predictions …
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
22
77
14
86
12
87
16
84
9
91
Yes
No
(Don’t Know)
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(1) (1) (1) (0) (1)
Have you noticed a tightening of expenditure by your customers or business counterparts?
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
‘All Island’2007/2008 2008/2009
32
‘All Island’ - Actions Taken in Light Of Recent Global Economic Conditions And Predictions …
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
36
61
28
70
21
78
26
73
16
83
Yes
No
(Don’t Know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(3) (3) (2) (1) (2)
Has your business revised its expenditure priorities?
‘All Island’2007/2008 2008/2009
33
‘All Island’ - Impact Of Economic Downturn On Business To Date[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
35
51
11
24
55
18
20
59
20
25
58
15
15
60
24
20
60
19
18
58
24
28
53
18Severe
adverse impact
Moderate adverse
Impact
No impact at all
(Don’t know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(3) (3) (1) (1) (1) (1) (0) (1)
'All Island' Quarter 3 Size Of Company
Smalln=810
%
Mediumn=135
%
Largen=55
%
2007/2008 2008/2009
34
‘All Island’ - Potential Impact Economic Downturn On BusinessOver Next 12 Months
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
18
61
13
10
57
27
15
63
18
18
63
13
12
62
23
15
63
18
12
65
20
20
60
19Severe
adverse impact
Moderate adverse
Impact
No impact at all
(Don’t know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’08
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(8) (6) (4) (6) (2) (4) (3) (1)
Smalln=810
%
Mediumn=135
%
Largen=55
%
'All Island' Quarter 3 Size Of Company2007/2008 2008/2009
35
'All Island' - Impact Of Economic Downturn On Financial Aspects Of Business …
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
47
23
19
49
21
17
45
24
21
51
20
16
52
17
15
50
23
16
Severe adverse
impact
Moderate adverse
Impact
No impact at all
(Don’t know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(12) (13) (10) (14) (16) (12)
'All Island'
Access to credit such as small business loans and overdrafts
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
'All Island'
Changing overdraft or loan arrangement conditions
36
‘All Island’ - Impact Of Economic Downturn On Certain Aspects Of Business …
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
28
42
26
30
45
21
32
43
19
30
46
17
32
34
22
38
38
17
45
29
17
37
19
11
38
16
6
34
93
Severe adverse
impact
Moderate adverse
Impact
No impact at all
(Don’t know)
Cash flow%
(4) (3) (6) (7) (12) (7) (9) (33) (39) (55)
Demand for goods and services
%
Capital spending
plans%
Business growth
%
Cost of doing business
%
Payments for the goods
and services you deliver
%
Future employment
intentions%
Research, development
and innovation budgets
%
Intentions to engage in
cross-border trade
% Intentions to export outside Ireland
%
37
34%
33%
14%
8%
6%
1%
2%
2%
Cash flow
Demand for goodsand services
Business andconsumer confidence
Rising energy costs
Exchange ratesbetween € and £
Available skills base
R&D and innovation
Don't know
‘All Island’ - Single Most Important Issue Facing Business During 2009[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
32
29
14
9
9
2
1
3
35
38
14
6
4
0
1
1
Period Covering
38
28%
25%
25%
20%
17%
16%
16%
14%
12%
9%
7%
6%
1%
Information on access to finance
Information on cash management
Assistance with cost control, such as energy,waste, transport etc.
Information on speeding up payments
Information on new cross-border markets
Assistance with the development of new productsand services
Financial assistance towards cross-border trade
Information on public procurement markets
Information on debt or solvency issues
Reduction in grant contribution ratios forcompanies
Assistance in finding partners for R&D and training
Deferral of matched grant contributions bycompanies particpating in govt programmes
Other
‘All Island’ – Assistance Required To Help Business[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
'All Island'
Period Covering
39
‘All Island’ – Things Government Could Do To Help Business During Economic Downturn
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
27%
9%
7%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
34%
19%
Make borrowing easier / recapitalise banks
Cut VAT
Reduce tax / tax concessions
Help increase consumer confidence
Help small business / SME's
Financial assistance to strugging businesses
Get people back to work
Lower interest rates
Cash injection into the economy
Reduce rates on property
Increase cash flow
Reduce hype / reassure consumers
Maintain grant aid
Show leadership / honesty
Others
Don't know
'All Island' NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
27
5
8
5
7
6
4
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
34
20
27
12
6
9
6
5
6
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
35
18
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
40
41
• Over a third (35%) of businesses throughout Ireland currently take part in cross-border trade, a trend which was more prevalent amongst Northern Ireland companies (NI = 44% / ROI 26%). These organisations were more likely to be operating within the manufacturing (55%), and agriculture (43%) industry sectors.
• Amongst those who did not take part in cross-border trade, 23% cited they were a local business with a local customer base, with a further 17% stating their business was located too far from the border. Others commented that their company was too small to consider cross-border trade (15%), or that they already had enough work without pursuing new markets (14%). Issues regarding exchange rates (3%), financial concerns (3%), and different legal regulations (3%) were also a consideration for some.
• Amongst NI businesses that traded throughout Ireland, cross-border trading accounted for 21.79% of their turnover (July’07 = 18.7%), compared to 14.19% amongst businesses located in ROI (July’07 = 14.6%).
Executive Summary
42
• Over a third (35%) of those businesses currently trading cross-border, expected their ‘all island’ trading to increase over the course of the next year, revealing an increase in expectations over the past 6 month period (July ’08 = 29%) - almost half (46%) anticipated their cross border trading to remain at similar levels. Expectations of an increase were significantly higher amongst NI businesses (NI = 42% / ROI = 25%), and those within the manufacturing (44%) sector. Those businesses most likely to expect a decrease in their cross-border trade over the next 12 months could be found in the construction (29%) and retail / distribution sectors (25%).
• Over 2 in 5 (42%) businesses throughout Ireland expected cross-border co-operation to grow over the course of the next 3 years, a perception which was especially prevalent within the service sectors. Just over 1 in 10 (12%) anticipated a decline.
• Over a third (35%) had some kind of formal or informal cross border links, a trend which was relatively consistent for both NI and ROI companies. The most frequently cited links included the purchase of raw materials, services or equipment as part of a larger group (20%); general business meetings (10%), and visits to other company production facilities or offices (8%).
• Encouragingly, almost three quarters (73%) of companies had benefited from these formal and informal cross border links, a perception which was consistent amongst companies North and South, and especially strong amongst those within the manufacturing and professional services sectors.
Executive Summary
43
• Amongst those businesses that currently have cross border links, half (50%) plan to develop these links over the next 12 months. Amongst those that have no links, 15% stated that they were planning to create some over the same period. In effect, over a quarter (27%) of all businesses throughout Ireland, regardless of their current trading relationships, plan to develop their cross boarder linkages over the course of the next 12 months.
• The main motivation for cross border cooperation was to access new and larger markets (63%), a response which was noticeably higher amongst NI businesses (70%), compared to their Southern counterparts (52%). Other motivations included cost reductions (24%), access to wider technologies (7%), access to a wider labour pool (6%) and risk reduction when entering new markets (6%).
• Barriers encountered when developing cross border trade included different exchange rates (33%), limited opportunities to meet potential new contacts (12%), poor infrastructure (6%), too many large contracts elsewhere (5%) and political instability (4%).
Executive Summary
44
• Some 15% of businesses stated that having two separate currencies had a positive impact on cross-border trade, a perception which was stronger amongst NI businesses (20%) compared to ROI (10%). Over a half (53%) claimed it made no difference, with almost a quarter (22%) believing it actually had a negative impact on cross-border trade. Similar trends were also recorded when businesses were asked to specify the impact on cross-border trade of recent exchange rate movements between sterling and the euro.
• The establishment of cross border networking opportunities (61%); sales and marketing (61%); sector specific market information (55%); and increased awareness of venture capital opportunities (49%) continued to be regarded as the most effective support techniques in helping business develop cross-border trade.
• Over two thirds (67%) of businesses ‘all island’ stated they would like to see more cross-border co-operation in the future, an opinion which was most noticeable in the manufacturing (75%) and other services (71%) sectors. Just over a quarter (28%) claimed they would like to see cross-border co-operation remain the same.
Executive Summary
45
62
40
65
35
56
44
74
26
Does Company Take Part In Cross-Border Trade[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
43
57
55
45
30
70
32
68
29
71
36
64
33
67
Yes
No
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
n =
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
‘All Island’
46
34%
23%
17%
15%
14%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
23%
Not viable for business
Local business / local customers
Foo far away from border / geographicalreasons
Company is too small / family run
Enough work already / no need to look cross-border
Feel more comfortable working locally
No opportunities / demand
For financial reasons
Have sister / parent companies cross-border
Different legal regulations
Due to exchange rates
Others
Reasons For Not Taking Part In Cross-Border Trade[ Base: All IoI Respondents Who Do Not Trade Cross-Border – n=648 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
'All Island' NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
34
25
10
16
15
5
3
3
2
3
3
22
34
21
21
15
14
4
4
3
3
3
2
24
Period Covering
47
34%
16%
16%
17%
7%
10%
19%
1 - 5%
6 - 10%
11 - 20%
21 - 50%
50+%
Don't know / refused
Average:
Percentage Of Business Turnover Which Comes From Cross-Border Trade
[ Base: All IoI Businesses That Take Part In Cross-Border Trade – n=352 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=352%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=221
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=131%
31%
15%
16%
20%
12%
10%
21.79%
1 - 5%
6 - 10%
11 - 20%
21 - 50%
50+%
Don't know / refused
38%
19%
16%
15%
3%
12%
14.19%
1 - 5%
6 - 10%
11 - 20%
21 - 50%
50+%
Don't know / refused
Period Covering
(Excluding ‘don’t knows’)
48
57
14
29
46
19
35
38
20
42
59
16
25
Expect % Of Cross-Border Trade To Increase / Decrease Over The Next 12 Months
[ Base: All IoI Businesses That Take Part In Cross-Border Trade – n=352 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
21*%
50%
30*%
68%
46*%
97%
40*%
33
59
8
44
38
19
27
43
29
37
47
16
37
54
8
32
43
25
33
50
17
Increase
Remain the same
Decrease
n =
*Small Bases
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=395%
NorthernIrelandn=221
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=131%
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=352%
‘All Island’
49
53
7
40
46
12
42
48
11
40
45
13
44
Expect Cross-Border Co-Operation To experience Growth / Decline Over The Next 3 years
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
40
54
6
39
48
13
37
47
16
44
46
10
42
47
12
42
44
13
45
45
10
Increase
Remain the same
Decrease
n =
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
‘All Island’
50
20%
10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
Purchase of raw materials, services orequipment as part of a larger group
General business meetings
Visits to other companies' production facilitiesor offices
Dinner or lunch with senior executives todiscuss business
Co-operate with other companies in meetingand design or quality requirements of
customers
Co-operate with other companies in theproduction of your goods or services
Does Business Have Any Of The Following Cross-Border Links [ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
19
11
9
9
8
8
21
9
6
5
4
5
Period Covering
51
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
65%
Share any technical capabilities with othercompanies
Bid on contracts or prepare joint tenders withother companies
Participate in any joint marketing effort or sharethe cost of trade shows with other companies
Co-operate with other companies in stafftraining programmes
Participate in joint distribution network withother companies
None of these
Does Business Have Any Of The Following Cross-Border Links (Continued)
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
6
6
5
5
4
63
4
4
4
4
4
67
Period Covering
52
25
39
32
24
42
31
27
40
30
22
43
31
(4) (4) (3) (4) (0) (6) (0) (2) (12) (3) (0)
Benefit Of Cross- Border Linkages In Helping Business Turnover[ Base: All IoI Respondents With Cross-Border Linkages – n=348 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
21*%
44 *%
34*%
69%
52%
90%
36*%
34
52
13
43
33
18
29
47
25
37
40
20
26
28
34
22
46
29
31
51
18
Very beneficial
Fairly beneficial
Made no difference
(Don’t know)
n =
*Small Bases
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=341%
NorthernIrelandn=185
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=163%
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=348%
‘All Island’
53
39
7
54
42
8
50
40
9
51
43
8
48
Plans To Develop Cross-Border Activity Or Links Over The Next 12 Months
[ Base: All IoI Respondents With Cross-Border Linkages – n=348 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
21*%
44 *%
34*%
69%
52%
90%
36*%
53
41
7
69
28
3
61
31
8
56
40
4
46
47
7
33
51
16
52
39
8
Yes
No
Don’t know
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=341%
NorthernIrelandn=185
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=163%
n =
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=348%
‘All Island’
*Small Bases
54
69
19
11
73
11
15
68
11
21
78
12
10
Plans To Develop Cross-Border Activity Or Links Over The Next 12 Months
[ Base: All IoI Respondents Without Cross-Border Linkages – n=652 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
21*%
44 *%
34*%
69%
52%
90%
36*%
0
90
10
25
63
11
15
75
9
17
75
8
19
70
11
12
71
17
12
78
9
Yes
No
Don’t know
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=659%
NorthernIrelandn=315
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=337%
n =
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=652%
‘All Island’
*Small Bases
55
63%
24%
7%
6%
6%
19%
Access to a bigger /new market
Cost reduction
Access to widertechnology
Risk reduction inentering markets
Access to wider labourpool
None of these
Motivations For Cross-Border Business Co-Operation[ Base: All IoI Respondents Who Trade, Have Links OR Plan To Develop
Links Cross-Border – n=514 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=514%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=294
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=220%
70
17
5
6
6
18
52
34
11
7
6
20
Period Covering
56
33%
12%
5%
6%
3%
51%
Different exchangerates
Limited opportunitiesto meet potential
business contacts
Too many largecontracts elsewhere
Poor infrastructure
Political instability
None applicable / noneof these
Barriers Encountered When Developing Cross-Border Trade[ Base: All IoI Respondents Who Trade, Have Links Or Plan To Develop – n=514 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=514%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=294
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=220%
32
12
4
6
4
50
34
13
7
5
3
51
Period Covering
57
Impact Of Having Two Separate Currencies On Cross-Border Trade[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
22
54
6
22
53
15
19
19
20
24
24
10
21
55
15
22
44
15
31
47
13Positive impact
Made no difference
Negative impact
(Don’t know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(19) (10) (9) (12) (9) (18) (10)
'All Island' Size Of Company
Smalln=810
%
Mediumn=135
%
Largen=55
%
58
Impact Of Recent Exchange Rate Movements Between The £ And € On Conducting Cross-Border Trade
[ Base: All Respondents – n=1000 ]
22
48
12
24
48
19
24
47
23
25
49
16
23
49
20
28
48
14
33
30
24Positive
impact
Made no difference
Negative impact
(Don’t know)
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
n=1000%
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’08
n=1000%
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
Period Covering
(19) (9) (17) (20) (8) (10) (13)
'All Island' Size Of Company
Smalln=810
%
Mediumn=135
%
Largen=55
%
59
Effectiveness Of Support Techniques In Helping Business Develop Cross-Border Trade
[ Base: All IoI Respondents Who Trade, Have Links Or Plan To Develop Links Cross-Border – n=514 ]
18
21
40
21
17
21
41
20
19
25
38
17
22
29
36
13
25
35
30
11
25
35
28
12
Very effective
Fairly effective
Not very effective
Not at all effective
Establishment of Cross-Border networking
opportunities%
Sales and marketing support
%
Sector specific market
information%
Increase awareness of
venture capital opportunities
%
Innovation capability supports
%
Lobbying Governments
%
60
28
4
67
31
3
66
26
5
69
Business Perceptions On Levels Of Cross-Border Business Co-Operation In The Future
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 per quarter ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
66
28
6
75
19
6
69
28
3
65
32
3
67
29
4
64
31
5
71
24
5
Like to see more co-operation
Co-operation to remain the same
Like to see less co-
operation
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
n =
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
‘All Island’
61
62
• Almost a quarter (23%) of businesses throughout Ireland employ migrant workers, a trend which emerged significantly higher in ROI (34%), compared to NI (13%). The sectors most likely to employ migrant workers were manufacturing (27%), and leisure, hotels and catering (38%).
• Amongst these organisations, on average, migrant workers comprised 23.97% of their workforce, a trend which was slightly higher amongst ROI companies (24.56%), compared to those in NI (22.41%).
• 10% of businesses had increased their proportion of migrant workers over the past 12 months – in sharp contrast however, 27% actually decreased their proportion of migrant workers, creating a net differential of -17%. In NI the net differential over the last year was -5%, compared to -20% in ROI.
• Migrant workers were largely employed within the unskilled manual (43%), skilled
manual (39%) and semi-skilled (28%) occupational groups, with significantly smaller proportions being employed in administrative (11%), professional (8%), managerial (7%) or associated professional (5%) roles.
Executive Summary
63
77
23
87
13
66
34
‘All Island’ Does Business Employ Migrant Workers[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=1000 ]
‘All Island’ Sector Analysis – Quarter 3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
50%
90%
100%
210%
160%
270%
120%
17
83
27
73
17
83
17
83
38
62
21
79
22
78
Yes
No
NorthernIrelandn=500
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=500%
n =
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000%
‘All Island’
64
24%
20%
25%
22%
10%
23.97%
1 - 5%
6 - 10%
11 - 25%
26 - 50%
50+%
Average score:
‘All Island’ Percentage Of Workforce That Are Migrant Workers[ Base: All Who Employ Migrant Workers – n=229 Excluding Don’t Know’s ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=229%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=62
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=167%
27%
19%
22%
22%
9%
22.41%
22%
20%
26%
22%
10%
24.56%
Period Covering
(Excluding Don’t know’s)
65
Has Proportion Of Migrant Workers Increased / Decreased Over Past 12 Months
[ Base: All Who Employ Migrant Workers – n=231 ]
27
63
10
19
67
13
29
62
9Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
NorthernIrelandn=62
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=169%
Period Covering
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=231%
‘All Island’
66
43%
39%
28%
11%
8%
7%
5%
3%
Unskilled manual
Skilled manual
Semi-skilled
Administrative
Professional
Managers / seniorofficials
Associatedprofessionals
Others
40%
39%
26%
10%
8%
5%
3%
3%
51%
40%
33%
11%
8%
12%
10%
2%
Occupational Groups Within Which Migrant Workers Are Employed[ Base: All That Employ Migrant Workers – n=231 ]
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=231%
'All Island'NorthernIrelandn=62
%
RepublicOf Ireland
n=169%
Period Covering
67
68
• During Quarter three of tracking (October - December ‘08), excluding seasonal variations, under 1 in 5 (18%) of NI businesses had increased their turnover, revealing a consistent downward trend over the course of the past year (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 36%). Increases in turnover were more prevalent amongst those within the manufacturing sector (28%). Over a third (36%) stated their turnover had remained the same, leaving some 44% of businesses having experienced a decline in turnover during the last quarter. Optimism on turnover for the incoming three month period was also at a low level relative to the same point last year, (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 44% - Quarter 3 2008 / 2009 = 22%), however it is worth noting trends have not declined over the last 6 months. Looking ahead over the next quarter, almost a third (31%) anticipate a decrease in turnover levels, a trend especially prevalent within the construction sector (41%).
• The proportion of NI businesses recording an increase in profitability has also fallen sharply over the past year (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 31% - Quarter 3 2008 / 2009 = 15%). For over a third (36%) of businesses, profitability over the last quarter remained the same, with over 2 in 5 (43%) experiencing a decline . Optimism for the incoming three months has also recorded a gradual depression since last year (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 38% - Quarter 3 2008 / 2009 = 20%). Again, it was the construction sector which was most pessimistic about profitability for the incoming period.
Executive Summary
69
• Businesses with increased employee levels also declined over the period (8%), revealing a noticeable downward trend since the same point last year (17%). Those NI businesses that had reduced their employee levels during Quarter 3 rose to 19%, with the vast majority (72%) remaining the same. Expectations of increased staffing levels over the next quarter also dropped back to 8%, with 10% actually anticipating a decline.
• 2 in 5 (40%) Northern Ireland businesses were optimistic that Government would improve business conditions over the next 3 years, however the majority (53%) remained pessimistic that the Government would achieve this. Optimism was highest amongst those in the manufacturing (47%), construction (52%), and leisure, hotels and catering (47%) industry sectors.
• On a more positive note, over three quarters (76%) of NI businesses were bullish and optimistic about their own business performance over the course of the next 3 years, a perception that was noticeably more prevalent within the service sectors.
• At the same point last year, 1 in 10 (10%) companies believed the Northern Ireland economy would experience strong recession over the course of the next 3 years. In January 2009, the proportion of NI businesses predicting this had risen significantly (38%). In contrast, 32% were anticipating moderate growth, and only 2% strong growth in the local economy.
Executive Summary
70
19
4
48
29
20
5
26
29
22
4
43
31
19
4
27
29
20
2
42
35
22
5
41
34
15
6
43
36
13
7
39
41
18
3
35
44
19
5
40
35
20
6
38
36
33
6
34
28
36
3
38
23
44
2
36
18
NI – Business Turnover Over Past Quarter Months[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
71
44
2
36
18
NI – Business Turnover Over Past Quarter By Sector[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
59
36
0
28
34
35
3
9
35
54
3
19
33
44
3
14
36
50
0
23
31
43
3
14
35
48
3
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=1000% n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
72
12
4
43
40
12
5
42
41
10
5
44
42
9
3
33
55
10
3
40
48
13
3
38
46
8
5
35
52
9
7
36
49
10
6
40
45
14
7
37
43
14
8
34
44
16
7
41
37
31
7
38
23
31
8
39
22
NI – Expectations Of Business Turnover Over Next Quarter Months[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
73
31
8
39
22
NI – Expectations Of Business Turnover The Next Quarter By Sector[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
59
27
9
22
38
31
9
12
42
41
6
28
38
25
10
21
45
29
5
18
38
37
6
35
28
25
11
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
74
18
7
52
24
16
8
52
24
16
6
53
26
17
7
51
25
18
4
49
29
18
7
50
26
15
8
44
33
14
9
44
33
18
7
42
34
17
9
44
30
18
10
41
31
30
9
39
22
37
6
38
19
43
6
36
15
NI – Business Profitability Over Past Quarter[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
75
43
6
36
15
NI – Business Profitability Over The Past Quarter By Sector [ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
0
45
55
0
19
25
44
13
7
42
49
1
15
43
36
6
14
38
43
6
19
35
38
8
17
33
48
3
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
76
12
7
50
31
11
7
50
32
9
6
51
34
8
5
42
45
11
4
47
38
11
6
40
43
8
7
40
46
7
9
41
44
13
7
39
41
11
9
38
42
13
11
38
38
17
9
41
33
32
10
37
22
30
7
43
20
NI – Expectations Of Business Profitability Over The Next Quarter[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
777
30
43
20
NI – Expectations Of Business Profitability Over The Next Quarter [ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
9
59
32
0
16
40
31
12
16
42
38
4
28
38
28
7
21
45
31
3
15
46
32
7
33
34
24
9
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
78
73
79
11
10
2
73
15
9
4
76
11
9
5
74
11
63
75
16
15
3
64
17
73
79
11
8
4
73
14
91
67
23
8
4
71
17
10
3
70
17
14
2
73
12
15
2
75
8
19
1
72
8
NI – Number Of Employees Over Past Quarter[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
DecreasedDon’t know /
N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
79 1
19
72
8
NI – Number Of Employees Over The Past Quarter By Sector [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
91
5
0
16
59
22
3
3
65
33
0
4
75
20
1
3
68
27
2
7
74
18
2
11
75
14
0
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
80
3 3
76
18
34
80
14
34
82
11
25
74
19
54
75
17
53
75
17
42
80
14
44
72
20
51
77
16
24
79
15
43
77
16
61
82
11
72
79
11
10
3
80
8
NI – Number Of Employees Over Next Quarter[ Base: All NI Respondents – n=500 per quarter ]
Increased
Remained the same
DecreasedDon’t know /
N/A
Period Covering
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’05
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’05
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’06
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’06
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep‘05
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’06
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’06
Quarter 4Jan-Mar’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2005 / 2006 2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
813
10
80
8
NI – Expectations Of Business Employees Over The Next Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
95
0
0
18
59
19
3
1
74
23
1
8
78
7
7
6
82
9
3
7
82
10
2
8
87
4
1
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / NA
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
82
20
33
36
4
NI – Optimism That Government Will Improve Business Conditions Over The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
0
32
27
41
3
44
25
19
9
43
29
16
8
29
40
14
5
42
33
12
4
34
37
19
3
35
33
22
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic
(Don’t know) (7) (0) (9) (3) (8) (8) (6) (8)
Period Covering
83
5
13
59
17
NI – Optimism Regarding Business Performance Over The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
54
23
14
13
56
16
6
7
57
17
9
18
60
14
3
21
60
9
3
19
60
12
3
23
61
6
3
Northern IrelandQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
n =
*Small Bases
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic
(Don’t know) (7) (5) (9) (10) (6) (6) (6) (8)
Period Covering
84
4
11
45
36
7
21
49
18
10
22
47
13
17
21
46
9
27
24
34
8
38
23
32
2
NI – Expectations For NI Economy Over The Next 3 Years [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
Northern Ireland Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
45*%
70%
40*%
65%
65%
125%
90%
5
23
59
9
0
25
34
31
3
42
20
30
0
36
42
21
8
36
32
20
0
35
38
25
3
28
42
19
n =
*Small Bases
Strong growth
Moderate growth
Strong recessionNo difference or
change
(Don’t know) (4) (6) (8) (8) (7) (5) (5) (9) (4) (1) (5) (2) (9)
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
85
86
• During Quarter 3 (October - December’08) of tracking, less than 1 in 10 (8%) ROI businesses had experienced an increase in turnover over the three month period, revealing a significant downward trend since the same period last year (32%). Over a quarter (28%) stated their turnover had remained the same, with the majority (61%) of businesses recording a decline in turnover. Expectations for the incoming quarter (January - March’09) also revealed a downward movement over the past 12 months, with only 14% of ROI companies anticipating an increase in turnover, compared to 37% in January 2008. Almost half (47%) were bracing themselves for a decline.
• Similarly, less than 1 in 10 (7%) businesses in ROI recorded an increase in profitability over the past three months, again revealing a consistent downward trend on previous quarters (Quarter 3 2007 / 2008 = 28%). Over half (53%) experienced a decrease, with slightly smaller proportions (37%) stating their profitability remained the same. As with business turnover, expectations for the incoming quarter also dropped back significantly, with only 14% expecting an increase in their profitability during the January – March’09 period, compared to 32% at the same point last year. Over 2 in 5 (42%) were anticipating a decline in profitability over the next three months.
Executive Summary
87
• Fewer than 1 in 10 (6%) businesses in ROI increased their level of employees over the past three months period, again revealing a continuing downward trend. For almost a third (30%) of businesses, employee levels had actually decreased. With regard to the incoming quarter, only 3% were expecting to increase their employee levels, with some 18% anticipating a further drop in employee numbers. Three quarters (75%) predicted their employee levels were likely to remain the same.
• A third (33%) of ROI businesses were optimistic that Government would improve business conditions over the next 3 years, however, as with NI businesses, the majority (63%) remained pessimistic that the Government would achieve this. The proportion of businesses ‘very pessimistic’ was highest in the construction, retail / distribution and other services industry sectors.
• Encouragingly, three quarters (75%) of ROI businesses were optimistic about their own business performance over the course of the next 3 years, a perception that was consistently high across all industry sectors with the possible exception of the construction sector.
• At the same point last year, over 1 in 5 (21%) businesses believed the ROI economy would experience strong recession over the course of the next 3 years. In January 2009, the proportion of businesses predicting this had almost doubled (40%). In contrast, 34% of businesses are anticipating moderate growth, and only 2% strong growth in the ROI economy.
Executive Summary
88
20
9
39
38
21
3
37
39
25
6
38
32
34
4
39
24
49
2
32
16
61
3
28
8
RoI – Business Turnover Over Past Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
16
30
54
0
11
25
64
0
3
21
72
4
11
36
48
4
10
34
50
5
5
19
75
1
10
32
57
1
n =
*Small Bases
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
89
13
3
41
43
16
3
38
42
15
6
42
37
19
6
40
35
36
6
41
17
47
6
33
14
RoI – Expectations Of Business Turnover Next Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
8
22
55
15
15
28
51
6
5
21
69
5
13
42
41
4
20
33
42
5
15
33
46
7
15
36
42
7
n =
*Small Bases
To increase
To remain the same
To decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
90
23
4
40
33
22
7
45
26
21
8
43
28
36
6
37
20
47
3
40
10
53
3
37
7
RoI – Business Profitability Over The Past Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
9
54
38
0
5
27
68
0
5
25
68
1
6
46
45
3
13
38
44
5
3
34
58
4
10
36
51
2
n =
*Small Bases
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
91
12
4
42
42
17
6
38
38
15
7
46
32
22
6
43
29
38
6
39
16
42
4
40
14
RoI – Expectations Of Business Profitability Over The Next Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
0
30
63
8
5
39
53
3
6
26
62
5
14
46
36
4
22
45
32
2
13
40
42
5
19
35
40
6
n =
*Small Bases
To increase
To remain the same
To decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
92
12
3
63
22
13
1
67
19
14
2
71
13
13
2
75
10
21
1
68
9
30
2
63
6
RoI – Number Of Employees Over The Past Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
7
70
22
0
8
58
34
0
3
42
52
3
8
66
24
3
7
57
33
3
2
70
26
1
8
71
22
0
n =
*Small Bases
Increased
Remained the same
Decreased
Don’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
93
71
78
13
71
76
16
72
76
15
62
78
15
17
4
74
5
18
4
75
3
RoI – Expectations Of Number Of Employees Over The Next Quarter [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
7
78
15
0
5
55
34
6
1
68
23
8
3
76
17
5
5
74
16
5
2
82
14
2
4
75
19
2
n =
*Small Bases
To increase
To remain the same
To decreasedDon’t know / N/A
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering
94
RoI – Optimism That Government Will Improve Business Conditions Over The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All RoI Respondents – n=500 ]
28
35
29
4
RoI Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
0
63
30
8
8
17
48
27
4
31
31
32
5
28
34
26
8
30
34
20
1
24
42
32
1
36
23
36
RoIQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic
(Don’t Know) (4) (0) (0) (3) (7) (8) (2) (4)
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
95
4
17
62
13
RoI – Optimism Regarding Business PerformanceOver The Next 3 Years
[ Base: All IoI Respondents – n=500 ]
RoI Sector Analysis
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
16
69
15
0
11
59
16
8
5
53
28
7
17
60
15
5
17
67
13
2
9
65
19
1
19
56
15
7
RoIQuarter 3Oct-Dec’08
n=500%
Very optimistic
Fairly optimistic
Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic(Don’t Know) (4) (0) (0) (3) (7) (8) (2) (4)
n =
*Small Bases
Period Covering
96
15
21
55
7
17
25
51
4
21
19
52
4
19
18
54
5
22
18
52
2
40
19
34
2
RoI – Expectations For RoI Economy Over The Next 3 Years [ Base: All Respondents – n=500 ]
ROI Sector Analysis – Q3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Manufacturing of food, drinks, textiles, clothing and electronics
Construction and tradesm
en
Service – professional
Service – leisure, hotels, and catering
Service – retail / distribution
Other services
15*%
35*%
55%
120%
85%
135%
55%
8
25
45
22
0
22
50
22
0
36
42
22
3
38
43
14
5
30
37
26
1
40
37
16
1
28
38
25
n =
*Small Bases
Strong growth
Moderate growth
Strong recession
No difference or change
(Don’t know) (2) (3) (3) (5) (6) (4) (0) (6) (0) (3) (2) (5) (9)
Quarter 1Apr-Jun’07
Quarter 3Oct-Dec’07
Quarter 2Jul-Sep’07
Quarter 4Jan-Mar‘08
Quarter 1
Apr-Jun’08 Quarter 3
Oct-Dec’08
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009
Period Covering