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GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Los Angeles, CA - August 6, 2015Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS
Greater Los Angeles Is a Truly Global Region
Source: Brookings
Exports 2 Rank
$98 B Value
FDI 2 Rank
271,000 Jobs
Int’l Goods Movement
1 Rank
$418 B Value
Foreign Students
2 Rank
68,000 Students
Greater Los Angeles Is a Truly Global Region
Source: Brookings
Exports
$97.7 BLos Angeles - Orange County
Riverside - San Bernardino
Ventura County
Total
FDI Jobs
271,180
11,750
36,170
$5.6 B
$11.4 B
$114.7 B 319,100
However, the Region’s Position Is Threatened
Source: Brookings
Exports 2.3% Growth rate, 08-14
37 Rank
FDI 22 1991 Rank, FDI Intensity
25 2011 Rank, FDI Intensity
•Region does not operate under a coordinated regional plan or initiative to maintain its position or drive future results •Fragmented export and FDI efforts could undermine the region’s strong position
•U.S. and foreign metros are upping their game on the global front.
1. Why Global2. FDI Market Dynamics3. Acting on Global Opportunities
81%share of global economic growth occurring outside the U.S., 2015-2020
The Bulk of Economic Growth Is Occurring Outside the U.S.
Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, 2015.
Global Middle Class - 2009 | Share of Global Totals
18%North America
36%Europe 28%
Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010
Global Middle Class - 2030 | Share of Global Totals
7%North America
14%Europe 66%
Asia Pacific
Source: Kharas and Gertz, “The New Global Middle Class,” 2010
Source: Brookings, Census
2014
11.6%
2003
7.9%
U.S. Export Share of GDP
2%
67%
share of exporters
Large Firms (500+ Employees)
share of export value
The U.S. Is Increasingly Export-Oriented, but Large Firms Dominate
Exports Share of U.S. GDP Growth
(2008-2014)
35%27%
Though Volatile, Global Investment Flows Are Growing
1984 1999 2012
FDI Flows Capital Investment, 1980-2012
$2 trillion
$1 trillion
Source: UNCTAD
Global
U.S.
The U.S. Is Capturing a Smaller Share of Global Investment
12 percent
26 percent
45 percent
1984 1999 2012
U.S. Share of Global FDICapital Investment, 1980-2012
Source: UNCTAD
Why FDI Matters: Over 5 Million High-Wage Jobs
5.6 millionemployees in foreign-owned firms, 2011
Foreign-ownedDomestic
$60,000
$77,000
Average Wages by Ownership2011
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Why FDI Matters: Investment in Export-Intensive Manufacturing Firms
2012 FDI Flows
Manufacturing48%
U.S. Goods Exports
U.S. Manufacturing Employment
2%
20%
Foreign-Owned FirmsGoods-Producing Industries, 2011
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Why FDI Matters: Foreign-Owned Firms Invest Heavily in R&D
19 percentshare of corporate R&D expenditures by foreign-owned firms, 2011
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis
$45 billioncorporate R&D expenditures by foreign-owned firms, 2011 77
foreign metro areas
the average U.S. metro area contains FDI from
Firms Benefit from Global Engagement
Competitive
Diversified
Sustainable Exporters 10 percent more likely to survive over 7-year period than non-exporters. - Bernard and Jensen, 1999
“Without being acquired by a larger firm, it wouldn’t have been possible to maintain significant presence in foreign markets.” - Mid-sized tech and manufacturing firm, San Diego
Since 2000, domestic sales for [our firm] have shrunk, while exports increased 400 percent... Our entire existence is predicated on growing exports.”
- Foreign-owned manufacturer, Syracuse
Current Economic Development Approaches Are Outdated
50%2000 - 2012
Source: Conway Data, Inc
Plant expansions and relocations of 50+ jobs or $1M+ investment:
Current Economic Development Approaches Are Outdated
1.9% state job creation from relocation
Source: Jed Kolko, “Business Relocation and Homegrown Jobs, 1992-2006,” Public Policy Institute of California, 2010.
1. Why Global2. FDI Market Dynamics3. Acting on Global Opportunities
Source: Census, Brookings
Population
66%
Land Area
12%
Exports
65%
FDI Jobs
74%
Top 100 MetrosShare of U.S. Totals
Patents
78% 94%
Venture Capital
College Degrees
74%
Metros Are the Market
Growth in Jobs Under Foreign OwnershipAverage year, 1991-2011
45% M&A
34% Expansion
21% Greenfield
FDI Capital Inflows1992-2008
87% M&A13% Greenfield
Source: Brookings, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mergers and Acquisitions Are the Dominant Form of FDI
Greenfield
Large, export-intensive manufacturing
Small to mid-size locations of large retail firms
Mid-sized manufacturing and services
Source: Brookings, FDI in U.S. Metro Areas
1.3% of foreign-owned establishments have more than 500 employees
75% of metro areas have less than 10 such establishments.
Average size of greenfield establishment at time of entry:San Diego: 27 employeesMinneapolis: 35 employees
Expansions of existing foreign-owned firms created twice as many jobs as new greenfield from 2001-2011.
Important source of new capital, transfers skills and technology to U.S. firms, and opens global distribution channels.
Primary learning for metros: hard to get in front of deals, but BRE is critical.
Acquired in 2007; no job loss and made a global research hubMaintains manufacturing and R&D facilities in MD
MedImmuneMontgomery County, MD
Life SciencesSan Diego, CA
Firms gain foothold in U.S. market and innovation via M&ATakeda Pharmaceuticals: grew from 85 to 250 employees, (150 PhDs)
Jim BeamLouisville, KY
Doubled size of Maker’s Mark KY distilleryGained global distribution channels through Japanese parent
Mergers & Acquisitions
23
Sovereign Wealth Funds
mid 1990s16 60+
2012
Number in existence:
Text
Private Investment
Seattle-ChinaSearching for opportunities in real estate, firms, public assets
San DiegoLooking for ways to fill need for venture capital and joint partnerships
9,231 2014
802 2006
Visas issued:
90% 2014
13% 2004
Share issued to Chinese investors:
EB-5 Investor Visa
Alternative Forms of Foreign Investment
Cumulative foreign investment:
$125 B 2011
1. Why Global2. FDI Market Dynamics3. Acting on Global Opportunities
Goal:
Catalyze a shift in economic growth policy and practice that results in more globally competitive metropolitan areas, positioning them for high-quality growth and better jobs for more workers in the 21st century economy.
1. Research 2. Convenings 3. Exchange
GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase
Lessons Emerging from the Exchange
Exports: New Cohort BaltimoreFresnoHoustonKansas CityPhiladelphiaSalt LakeSeattleSt. Louis
Exports: Current AtlantaCharlestonChicagoColumbusDes MoinesIndianapolisJacksonvilleLouisville-LexingtonLos AngelesMilwaukeeMpls-St. PaulPhoenixPortlandSacramentoSan AntonioSan DiegoSyracuseTampa BayUpstate SCWichita
ColumbusMpls-St. PaulPortlandSan AntonioSan DiegoSeattle
FDI Pilot
Key Approaches
• Connections between innovation, exports, clusters, and FDI
• Diversifying from computer & electronics with cluster initiatives: We Build Green Cities, Software, and Athletic & Outdoor
• Led by Greater Portland Inc (regional) and Portland Development Commission (city)
Portland
Lessons Emerging from the Exchange
San Diego
Key Approaches
• Advanced industries and innovation
• Life sciences M&A
• Leveraging the Cali-Baja Binational Megaregion
• Led by San Diego Regional EDC
Lessons Emerging from the Exchange
Key Approaches
• New approaches to BRE, focus on bringing value and market intelligence to firms
• Building networks and relationships
• Honda supply chain
• Led by Columbus 2020 (regional)
Columbus
Lessons Emerging from the Exchange
Key Approaches
• Nurturing and valuing key partnerships: connection with Canada (largest investor)
- Similar: San Antonio and Mexico
• State and regional collaboration around core strengths: Medical Device and Headquarters
Minneapolis-St.Paul
Lessons Emerging from the Exchange
Key Takeaways from Global Trade and Investment Plans
Lead with Specializations with Global ReachClusters, talent, innovation, connections
M&A Is the Dominant Form of FDIBrings knowledge, cash infusion, export channels
The Middle Market Is the Sweet SpotTarget threshold firms and under-exporters
Long-term commitment from central players, part of every day practiceGlobal Engagement Must Be a Demonstrated Priority
The Foundation is Business Retention and ExpansionUnderstand and support the needs of existing firms
GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E
Los Angeles, CA - August 6, 2015Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS