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Lecture @ German Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Jan 16 2013
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Innovation
Requirements and Opportunities
Agenda
• Innovation in General– The Fundamental Dilemma
• Different Aspects of Innovation– Destruction and Creation– The Golden Mean– System Models and System Reality
• Predicting the Future– Scenarios
• Innovation Culture– Creativity and Resistance– The Learning Organization and Personal Mastery
• Learning• Example• Recommendations
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On Innovation: The Hand Axe
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Idea: To produce a hand axe and not to rely on chance in finding one
Invention: To develop the necessary capabilities and skills (process innovation)
Diffusion: To copy and export the „production process“
Innovation: Man-made hand axeSuccess Story: Has been the
predominant tool of the Acheuléen (“hand axe”) culture
Inventor: Homo ErectusMarket: Africa, Europe and AsiaMarket Window: Between 1,8 Mil. und 150
Thou. years BCEMan-made hand axe found in Turkana, Kenya, dated to1,76 Mil. Years BCE
On Innovation: The Hand Axe
06.02.2014 4
Idea: To produce a hand axe and not to rely on chance in finding one
Invention: To develop the necessary capabilities and skills (process innovation)
Diffusion: To copy and export the „production process“
Innovation: Man-made hand axeSuccess Story: Has been the
predominant tool of the Acheuléen (“hand axe”) culture
Inventor: Homo ErectusMarket: Africa, Europe and AsiaMarket Window: Between 1,8 Mil. und 150
Thou. years BCEMan-made hand axe found in Turkana, Kenya, dated to1,76 Mil. Years BCE
Innovation = Idea + Invention + Diffusion
On Innovation: Timeliness
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Diffusion(Marketing)
Invention(Development)
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P P
IdeaInventionProduct
Idea(Generation)
P
Innovation(Success)
InnovationN
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TimelinessSuccessful innovations are in themselves unique, creative and original, realize developments not conceived before.They are closely interwoven with the organization and the people, and properly positioned in time.
Not all ideas become inventions, 100 → 45Not all inventions become products 45 → 15 - 20Not all products become innovations 15 - 20 → 5 – 9
Study Innovation Behavior 2012, Dr. Bernd X. Weis
On Innovation: The Fundamental Dilemma
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The particular capabilities of the organization are at the same time its special incapabilities.
MaintainingCompetitiveness
CostPressure
EfficientProcesses
InnovationPressure
CreativeProcesses
InexpensiveProducts
InnovativeProducts
Short Run: Higher Profits
Short Run:HigherCost
Delays
(Christensen)
On Innovation: Types
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Traditional Markets,Improved Products
SustainableInnovations
New Markets,New Quality of Products
DisruptiveInnovations
Innovations
On Innovation: Sustainable versus Disruptive Innovations
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Minor CustomerBenefit Perceived
Time
Per
form
ance
Disruptive Innovation
Often Innovator succeeds
Often Incumbent succeeds
No AdditionalCustomer Benefit
Perceived
DifferentiatingCustomer Benefit
Perceived
(Christensen)
On Destruction and Creation
Verbrennen musst du dich wollen indeiner eignen Flamme: wie wolltestdu neu werden, wenn du nicht erstAsche geworden bist!
Nietzsche: Also sprach Zarathustra
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Creative Destruction (Joseph Schumpeter)
Perceive the continuous alterations and changes in the environment as potential • to disengage from the outdated and adapt to
new developments,• to develop further, to design and shape, to
create something new.
Innovation implies Change .
Phoenix (Mosaic, Louvre, Paris)
You must be ready to burn yourselfin your own flame; how could yourise anew if you have not firstbecome ashes!
Nietzsche: Thus spoke Zarathustra
On the Golden Mean
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The Golden MeanOn no account does the golden mean imply mediocrity, but rather a prudent and wise resolution of diametrical, often irreconcilable options – the “right” mean.
Prudent businessmanA direct corollary is that a failing “innovation” may shake an organization or enterprise, but should by no means threaten its very existence.
Virtue, then, is a state of character concerned with choice, lying in a mean, i.e. the mean relative to us... For in everything it is no easy task to find the middle… Wherefore goodness is both rare and laudable and noble.
Aristotle: Nicomachean Ethics
Aristotle teaching (British Library)
On Complexity Reduction
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Handle stets so, dass die Anzahl der Möglichkeiten wächst.
Heinz von Foerster: Das Konstruieren einer Wirklichkeit
Always act so as to increase the total number of choices.
Heinz von Foerster: Constructing a Reality
Real WorldDerive
Options, possible Consequences, Goals, Actions,
Influences
Be aware ofUncertainty,Emergence,
The Unknown
Model
Innovation StrategiesWhen talking about reducing complexity, complexity of the model is reduced not the complexity of system reality. Thus, complexity reduction is a cognitive necessity but remains a chimera.
In consequence, innovation strategies, which maximize the number of options, have a higher potential for success.
On Predictions: Russell’s Chicken
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Ich handle mit voller Gewissheit.Aber diese Gewissheit ist meineeigene.
Wittgenstein: Über Gewissheit
I act with complete certainty. But thiscertainty is my own.
Wittgenstein: On Certainty
Market UncertaintiesMarkets, that are not (yet) existing, cannot be analysed.New markets are fundamentally afflicted with uncertainty and can therefore not be dealt with in the conventional processes and techniques of business planning and conduct. Time
Wei
ght
On Predictions
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Continue this sequence of numbers: 0 2 4 6 …
Rule – Expanatory Framework Continuation
The next number is the previous one + 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
The next number is even and not in the list 0 2 4 6 256 24 396 10532
The next number is bigger than the previous one 0 2 4 6 7 99 396 123456
The last 4 numbers are attached in reversedorder 0 2 4 6 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6
4 arbitrary numbers followed by 1‘s 0 2 4 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
On Prediction: Scenarios
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Near Future(Planning Horizon)
Presence
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Scenario
Planning Target
Current StateI
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Far Future
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On Prediction: Scenarios
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Near Future(Planning Horizon)
Presence Far Future
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Scenario
Planning Target
Current StateI
PP
PIP
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IS I
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S2
S1
S3Unexpected, Very Unlikely,
Disruptive Event
SS
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On Innovation Culture
The five basic characteristics• Vision• Co-operation and Networks• Inspiration and Leadership• “FREIRAEUME”(*)
• Creativity and Readiness to take Risks
(*) The German noun FREIRAEUME refers to what is ordinarily called "free space," and also what is called "room for ideas", “room for self-actualization” and the likes. FREIRAEUME refers to the kind of opportunities given, that allow to pursue activities that are not on the specified agenda e.g. to create and follow up with new ideas.
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Innovation culture has to be conceived a transdisciplinary culture. Its imperative is to pragmatically integrate anything desirable, necessary, useful, feasible, and appropriate.
Elizabeth Eastland, Sidney
Edge of Exploration, Edge of the Known
On Creativity
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Innovation can be conceived anywhere. It is presumptuous to believe that methods, techniques and processes create innovation. However, innovativeness benefits from appropriate methods, techniques and processes.
Caspar David FriedrichStudy Innovation Behavior 2012, Dr. Bernd X. Weis
On Resistance
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Eppur‘ si muove.Galilei
And yet it moves.Galilei
Typical Quotes
“It’s never been that way!”“We’ve never done it that way!”“We tried this before!””This has never worked!”“This will never work!”“Nobody would want this!”“It’s already there!”…..
Difficulty in Managing Change
• The protagonists have the structural disadvantage that they have to explain the vision with all its deficiencies.
• The opponents instead have their vision ready and proven – it is the simple and obvious projection of the Now onto the Then.
On Learning Organizations
The Learning OrganizationAn innovative Organization learns from• Successes and Failures• Trial and Error• from Others and • with Others through Co-operative Action
Individual Aspects:Autonomy, Personal Mastery and Meaning
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Der Tag gehört dem Irrtum und demFehler, die Zeitreihe dem Erfolg unddem Gelingen.
Goethe: Maximen und Reflektionen
The day belongs to the error and thefailure, the time series to successand achievement.
Goethe: Maxims and Reflections
On Personal Mastery
Personal Mastery • Integration of Rationality and Intuition • Realization of the Connectedness
with the World• Empathy and Engagement
Thus, Personal Mastery is the capability to reflect one‘s own actions and interactions with honesty and depth –and act accordingly.
06.02.2014 20
Denn der Zugang ist ... nur denenvergönnt, die ‚reinen‘, umNebenabsichten unbekümmertenHerzens sind.
Herrigel: Zen in der Kunst des Bogenschiessens
But acces is ... only granted tothose, who are with a pure heart,free from secondary motives.
Herrigel: Zen in the Art of Archery
On Learning
06.02.2014 21
Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty. Anyone who keeps learning stays young. The greatest thing in life is to keep your mind young. Henry Ford
The required structures have to develop; they cannot be bought, particularly in research management.
Prof. Dr. Bernd Hoefer in „the gulf | February 2011“
The goal is to inspire and to guide!“If you want to build a ship, do not drum up people to collect wood and assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the endless immensity of the sea”.
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Bosch
HertzReis
SiemensBenzDaimler
Von BraunZuse
On Innovation: Idea, Observation, Question, Requirement
Observations• In Kuwait the air at sea level is hot.• Even in Kuwait the air in higher altitudes – say 3 – 5 km – is cold.
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Question• Is it possible to get the hot air up and at the sam e time get the cold
air down?
Requirements• The process should be as passive as possible.
H: H
eigh
t
On Innovation: Sketch of First Solution: Ideas
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1. Low Pressure Chamber (LPC) is filled with air at pressure pL < p0.
2. Lower pressure implies lower temperature.
3. The air flows should eventually come into a steady state.
4. Additionally, air could be heated at ground level using sun energy.
5. Additional exploitation of the air flow should be taken into account.
w0
pH
p0 � pH
Low Pressure Chamber
Heat Exchangep0 � pL
Venturi-Effectfor Air Speed
2[(pH - p0) + ρHgHH + ρ0w2 /2 + cv(ρHTH - ρ0T0)]
ρH√wH = 0
wH
p0Ground Level
On Innovation: Recommendations
• Create a culture of appreciation . • Create a culture that allows learning from successes AND from failures . • Create an environment that allows processes of trial and error . • Create an environment that has sufficient free space for creative moments.
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Inspiration
Heart and Soul
Passion
Study on Innovation Behavior 2012
In English or German:
Can be ordered through my Website
www.Bernd-Weis.de
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The Book
From Idea to Innovation: A Handbook for Inventors, Decision Makers and Organizations270 Pages, Springer: Heidelberg, 2014ISBN 978-3-642-54170-4
In German:Praxishandbuch Innovation: Leitfaden für Erfinder, Entscheider und Unternehmen (2. Auflage)296 Seiten, SpringerGabler: Wiesbaden, 2014ISBN 978-3-8349-4638-6
Can as well be ordered through my Website
www.Bernd-Weis.de
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Thank you!
شكرا
Herzlichen Dank!