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Online Documentation: Socical Media and Internet Trend (http://tin180.com)
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A history of the future ofthe Internet
Ian Graham
IT Strategy & Planning
www.iangraham.org/talks/
history
innovation
banking
1790
Optical Telegrap
h
Codes
Networks
“WAN” circa 1810 In the early 19th century, it
was possible to send a short message from Amsterdam to Venice -- in one hour.
…but was limited to military and government communication – not for business, individuals
Did send lottery tickets, though.
Monopolistic Monolithic
application
transport
network / addressing
data link
physical
Monolithic
the end... ... electric
telegraph
terminology still with us, and other legacies...
Optical
Electric
1.14 ¢ 0.038 ¢ 12x7 land
24x7 anywhe
re
N DNuclear Disarmament
18381838
Telegraph
Telegraph and RailwaysTelegraph and Railwayscoordinate traffic
synergy value-add resale
CultureCulture
abbreviated messages --
AB BFT CK IF CHN ATE
social networking
technology subculture
The “1891” World The “1891” World NetworkNetwork
...and also pre-1914...and also pre-1914
application
transport
network / addressing
data link
physical
Separation
18771877
Explosive Growth
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910
Year
Su
bsc
rib
ers
application
transport
network / addressing
data link
physical
Internet
History
key ideaskey ideastransport-agnostic
computer-agnostic
peer-to-peer
layered
extensible
simple
application
transport
network / addressing
data link
physical
Five Layers
coax
tcp
IPv4
ethernet
Telnet
slow growth
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Sep-69 Sep-71 Sep-73 Sep-75 Sep-77 Sep-79 Sep-81 Sep-83 Sep-85 Sep-87 Sep-89
Nu
mb
er
of
No
de
s
<100
Nu
mb
er
of
Dom
ain
sN
um
ber
of
Dom
ain
s
1993 ....
...it became easyweb browser
HTML, URLs
Web server
1993 – ~56,000 ‘domains’
innovation on all layers
application layer
transport layer
physical and data link layers
....
“business” apps on top
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Do
ma
ins
1.2 billion internet users
18,000
342,000
N=et N
o.
of
‘resp
on
din
g’
dom
ain
s
160 million domains
App-layer evolution
( 1275 ( 1275 DVDs / DVDs / second )second )
Physical layer evolution
Data link evolution
synergy
morecustomers
innovation in and between
layers
bandwidth ↑newservices
Cost ↓
application
transport
Network...
data link
physical
Innovation
Fiber, coax, RS-232, twisted pair … birds...
Ethernet, WiMAX, WiFi, 802.11, ADSL...
IPv4/6, IPSec,....
HTTP, SOAP, VOIP, SSH, IMAP.....
XML, HTML, ....Web “apps”
TCP, UDP, RSVP, ....
Why?
independent layersinnovation on all layers
partnering between layersopen standards
leverages what’s therecustomer-focus
competition
Lessons?
independent layers innovation
“right” layers takes time
critical threshold
unpredictable
The future.....& Banking?
Today
1 MBPS home access
50 kBPS wireless
200 GB home
storage
Tomorrow
100 MBPS home access
10 MBPS wireless
10 TB home storage
Implications
real-time video, everywhere
store every second of your life
digital ‘web’ overlapping everything
Howcanwe
innovatelikethe
Internet?
Monolithic Financial Services
Innovative ‘layered’ services
Way out of time!!
Questions?
http://www.iangraham.org/talks/
From http://www.ipbusinessmag.com/departments.php?department_id=17&article_id=335From http://www.ipbusinessmag.com/departments.php?department_id=17&article_id=335
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
% of all householdsE-mail 26.3 37.4 46.1 48.9 52.1Electronic banking 8.0 14.7 21.6 26.2 30.8Purchasing goods and services 5.5 9.6 12.7 15.7 18.6Medical or health information 15.6 22.9 30.1 32.8 35.6Formal education/training 9.2 19.0 22.9 24.3 24.9Government information 12.7 18.9 25.6 29.2 32.2General browsing 24.3 36.2 44.3 46.1 48.5Playing games 12.3 18.2 24.4 25.7 27.9Chat groups 7.5 11.0 13.7 14.0 14.4Other Internet services 10.0 17.7 21.1 24.8 23.5Obtain and save music 7.8 17.8 23.3 24.3 20.6Listen to the radio 5.0 9.3 12.3 12.3 13.1Find sports related information .. 17.3 22.1 23.8 24.6Financial information .. 18.5 22.8 23.5 25.0View the news .. 20.4 26.2 27.2 30.2Travel information/arrangements .. 21.9 27.4 30.4 33.6Search for a job .. 12.2 16.2 18.0 19.6
Optical Telegraphs