TAMPA / WESTSHOREMULTI-FAMILY UPDATE

Presented by:

Phillip A. Smith

Westshore Development Forum

April 21, 2015

TOPICS

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• Economic Trends

• Jobs, the Renter, and the Investor

• Rent Growth

• Regional Job Growth

• Tampa’s Supply & Demand

• Challenges Facing our Rental Market

• Pipeline

NATIONAL TRENDS

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Jobs• As of year-end 2014, US recovered 88% of jobs lost in the

recessionThe Renter• Millenials

• Stagnant wages

• Pressure to repay over $1 trillion in student loans

The Investor• Increased pension, endowment and life co. capital

• Family office/private wealth

• Increased asset sale prices and demand for new projects

Sources: Wall Street Journal, PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015, Marcus & Millichap National Apartment Report

2014

• Expanding mature renter

• The “golf course retirement” model losing its luster

• Current rent-by-choice lifestyle offers more than in the past

NATIONAL TRENDS—Rent Growth

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Source: Axiometrics, Inc.

NATIONAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH

REGIONAL JOB GROWTH

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FLORIDA

*

SOUTHEAST

US

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

YO

Y G

row

th

YO

Y G

row

th

Jobs (1,000s) Jobs (1,000s)

Orlando

Miami

Jacksonville

Tallahassee

Palm Bay

Naples

Tampa (5.3%

Unemployment)

Dallas AtlantaCharlotte Raleigh

Austin

Houston

Memphis

Nashville

Columbia

Greenville

Tampa

*But, biggest recent job creation was in Leisure & Hospitality,

and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (includes Retail).

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN GROWTH

THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING

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Source: ARA Florida Multifamily Snapshot Q1 2015

SUPPLY HIGHLIGHTSTotal Inventory: 157,687 units

Peak Inventory: 159,296 units (2004)

Class A Occupancy: 95.4%

'14 Production: 5,000 units (approx.)

'15-'16 Production: 3,000-3,500 units (projected)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

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5

200

6

200

7

200

8

20

09

201

0

20

11

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Annual Average ‘00-’14

Annual Average ‘00-’05

TAMPA APARTMENT DELIVERIES

THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING

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WESTSHORE’S SUPPLY PIPELINE

4310 Spruce 262 units

Crescent

Westshore374 units

Grady Square 557 units

Varela 350 units

3

2

6

1

4

5

4

21

6

7

3

Rocky Point

Redstone/Austin7

5

MetWest 254 units

THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING

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TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Buying @ $1,500/mo.

$200,000 FHA MORTGAGE @ 5.049%

Median Price per SF: $106

Median Size @ $200k: 1,887 SF

CASH REQUIRED AT CLOSING

Down Payment: $7,000

Origination Fee: $1,005

Transfer Taxes: $1,100

Insurance: $1,476

Deposits & Misc. Fees: $5,269

TOTAL: $15,850

MONTHLY HOUSING EXPENSES

Mortgage Pmt: $938

Taxes: $287

Insurance: $246

TOTAL: $1,471

Source: Zillow.com and Zillow Real Estate Research

THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING

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METRO AREATYPICAL

RENT/SF

UNIT SIZE @

$1,500/MO.

Westshore $1.60 938 SF

Downtown Tampa $1.95 769 SF

Channelside $2.10 714 SF

SoHo/Bayshore $2.20 682 SF

TYPICAL AMENITIES

- On-site Gym - On-site Spa

- Pool - Demonstration Kitchens

- Balconies/Terraces - Gaming Areas

- Clubhouses - Pet Spas, Dog Parks

TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Renting @ $1,500/mo.

TAMPA’S AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGE

Source: Zillow Real Estate Research

Atlanta

Dallas

Nashville

Jacksonville

Sacramento

Tampa = 32% of mo. income on

rentPhoenix

Chicago

Philadelphia

Boston

Seattle

Portland

WESTSHORE’S WALKABILITY CHALLENGE

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Westshore delivers on accessibility but should become more

pedestrian-friendly

ACTIVE PROJECTS AT FRAMEWORK

GROUPVARELA• Lois Ave & Spruce St

• 350 Units

• 5-story w/ structured

parking

• Completion 2015

4310 SPRUCE• 262 Units

• 5-story w/ structured

parking

• Completion 2016

HARBOUR

ISLAND• Knights Run &

Harbour Post

• 235 Units

• 21-story high rise

• Completion 2016

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ON THE BOARD AT FRAMEWORK GROUP

PERSPECTIVE RENDERING

CROSLAND, INC.

LAKE COPELAND RESIDENTIAL PROJECT4750 New Broad St reet ; O rlando, Florida 32814

Tel: 407.422.3330 | Fax: 407.422.3329 | www.MSCWinc.com

NOTE: THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS DOCUMENT SHOULD BE TREATED AS CONCEPTU AL ONLY AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON MORE DET AILED SURVEY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SPECIFIC BUILDING PRODUCT INFORMATION. © 2006 MSCW , INC.

PRO JECT N UMBER: 070121

D AT E: 07/ 16/ 2007

FILE PAT H : G:\ Jobs\07\070121\Creat ive

VIEW 1 -FROM EAST SIDE OF LAKE COPELAND

YBOR CITY

SARASOTA

ORLANDO

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CONCLUSION

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• Investment in the multi-family sector is still robust;

• Rent growth is steady;

• Supply appears to be in check in terms of total

numbers, but mostly at the high-end;

• Regional job growth is steady, but mostly at the

low-end;

• Need more new high-quality jobs;

• Wages are still stagnant, creating future

affordability concerns;

• Need to maintain continued focus on Westshore’s

urban plan, transportation and walkability

solutions to maintain competitive edge for

attracting new businesses.

WWW.FRAMEWORKGROUPLLC.COM

@FRAMEWORK_GROUP Framework Group, LLC