03_CSIL_AlessandraTracogna

CSIL Furniture Outlook:Gl b l t d d f t f th

Alessandra Tracogna

Director

Global trends and forecasts for the furniture sector

COUNTRY ANALYSISAND FORECASTS UNIT

furniture sector

ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL

World Furniture Production, 2001-2010. Current US$ billionAn increasing role of emerging producers

400

Middle/Low income

countries

300

High income

200

countries

0

100

02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


World Furniture Production, 2000-2010. Current US$ millionA changing geography on a global scale

400,000

450,000

300,000

350,000

200 000

250,000

,

Middle East and Africa

South America

North America

150,000

200,000Europe (including Russia)

Asia and Pacific

50,000

100,000


02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

F it P d tiFurniture Production, 2000-2010. Current US$ millionChina, India, Poland and Brazil among the fast growing manufacturing countries140 000

120,000

140,000

80,000

100,000

40,000

60,000

0

20,000


F it P d ti i EUFurniture Production in EU, 2010. Current US$ million


F it P d ti i EUFurniture Production in EU, 2000-2010. % breakdown by areaEU Integration and the increasing role of Central Eastern European countries

100%

80%

90%

100%

70%

80%

50%

60%

Central Eastern Europe

Western Europe

30%

40%

10%

20%


0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2011. Current US$ billion

8594

110 118

96107

113

100

120

5666

7885

80

52 51 56

40

60

0

20

* Preliminary

02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*


F it I t 2001 2011Furniture Imports, 2001-2011The major furniture importing countries. US$ billion2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

32

36

402001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

24

28

32

16

20

24

8

12

0

4

United States Germany France United Kingdom


* Preliminary Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSIL

Furniture Exports, 2001-2011The major furniture exporting countries. US$ billion

36

402001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

28

32

36

16

20

24

8

12

16

0

4

China Italy Germany Poland


Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSIL * Preliminary

China Italy Germany Poland

Furniture production, the leading manufacturing countries

Very large amount of production, low exports/ production ratio

Very large amount of production, high exports/ production ratio

China Italy GermanyUnited States

Large amount of production, Large amount of production, low exports/ production ratio

Large amount of production, high exports/ production ratio

I di J F B ilIndia Japan France Brazil Canada Poland


Very large amount of production: >20000 US$ million; high export/production ratio:>25%

W ld F it C tiWorld Furniture Consumption. Breakdown by geographical area (%)Consumers are changing

2010Asia and PacificCentral

South America

Asia and Pacific

Central Eastern Russia

South America

3%

2000 2010ac c22%Eastern

Europe3%

Russia1%

e ca3%

Pacific40%

Eastern Europe

4%

Russia2%

3%

North

Western Europe

32%North Western Middle

America21%


North America

37%

Western Europe

27%East and

Africa3%


and Africa2%

P it f it tiPer capita furniture consumption. 2000=100Per capita furniture consumption in emerging countries is low, but increasing fast450

350

400

450

250

300

350

150

200

50

100

02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Middle and low income High income

Statistics are the evidence of a structural change affecting the furniture sector

The structural change statred years ago and still under way is due to many factors. Among them: Among them:

•Changing in comparative advantages for furniture production which make less profitable d i i d d iproducing in advanced economies

•Sustained growth in the demand of furniture in emerging markets and subsequent Susta ed g o t t e de a d o u tu e e e g g a ets a d subseque tdevelopment of the local industry

In estments in ne plants especiall designed and b ilt for e ports (eg China Vietnam •Investments in new plants especially designed and built for exports (eg. China, Vietnam, Poland)


•Operations of large multinationals sourcing on a global scale (eg. IKEA)

Evolution of World GDP, 2010-2013

2010 2011 2012 2013

World 5 2 3 8 3 3 3 9World 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9Advanced economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9

USA 3 0 1 8 1 8 2 2 USA 3.0 1.8 1.8 2.2 Euro Area 1.9 1.6 -0.5 0.8E i d D l i E i 7 3 6 2 5 4 5 9Emerging and Developing Economies 7.3 6.2 5.4 5.9

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2012


World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2012. Current US$ billion

94

110 118

96107

113 116

100

120

66

7885

94

80

100

52 51 5666

40

60

20

40

02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012**


* Preliminary **Forecast

F it ti b hi l i 2012Furniture consumption by geographical region 2012yearly changes in real terms. Forecast as of November 2011

Europe

North America

South America


Asia and Pacific

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

World


Furniture Consumption forecasts 2012Furniture Consumption forecasts, 2012Real consumption growth>3%

RUSSIA +4%

ARGENTINA +4%BRAZIL +4%CHILE +5%COLOMBIA +5% CHINA +8%

PHILIPPINES +4%INDIA +7%ALGERIA +4% INDIA +7%INDONESIA +4%KAZAKHSTAN +4%MALAYSIA +5%THAILAND +4%

ALGERIA +4%SAUDI ARABIA +4% BAHRAIN +4%KUWAIT +5%QATAR +7%


THAILAND +4%VIETNAM +5%

QATAR +7%SOUTH AFRICA +4%

Business

03_CSIL_AlessandraTracogna