Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The Future of Transport Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Prof. Glenn Lyons | Professor of Transport and Society | UWE
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Transport kicked off the Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015.
This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
The Funding Challenge In austere financial 4mes there is a significant challenge for
governments being able to fund the maintenance of the exis4ng transport system and investment in new infrastructure.
Transport and Society Transport systems need to contribute to suppor4ng and improving
society rather than only serving it and risking unintended, unan4cipated and unwelcome consequences.
Increased Proximity The increase in physical and virtual proximity due to urbanisa4on and digital connec4vity is transforming society and the car is
becoming a background func4onal technology.
Need for Change Technological advances and fiscal and
regulatory measures are needed to address adverse impacts of the transport system and its use.
Driving Economic Growth Transport infrastructure investment creates employment and
economic flows and holds the promise of enabling more movement and in turn more economic ac4vity.
Different Pathways The developed world focus will be on growth in electric and hybrid-‐fuel
vehicles and self-‐driving vehicles. For countries with less advanced transport systems, manufacturers are likely to deploy established technologies.
Future OpCons Society has two op4ons rela4ng to mee4ng demand growth – ‘predict and provide’ (responding to expected demand) and
‘decide and provide’ (shape change in the face of uncertain future needs).
TransformaCon Ahead The move into the motor age was, over a period of decades,
transforma4ve for society and for transport. Further transforma4on is all but inevitable.
Triple-‐Access SoluCons Focus should be upon developing a balanced triple-‐access system of transport, physical proximity and digital connec4vity system that may transcend the tradi4onal remits of government departments.
Future Proofing Greater a^en4on needs to be given to how infrastructure
can be ‘future proofed’ and made ready to accommodate the needs of a changing society.
Simplified Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-‐mile delivery will replace
inefficient compe44on and duplica4on of goods distribu4on: Efficiency in moving things will be as important as efficiency in moving people.
Lessons From Large CiCes Smaller ci4es and towns will increasingly adopt approaches that have worked in larger ci4es: Mul4-‐modal, integrated transport
op4ons will be adapted and op4mised for midi ci4es.
Changing Travel MoCvaCons Demographic shias and technology developments influence when and why
we need to travel. Mo4va4ons for work and leisure mobility blur and dynamic pricing and the sharing economy deliver greater efficiency in the system.
In-‐Built Flexibility Recognising that there is no perfect transport solu4on,
policy makers increasingly bet on longer term op4ons with built-‐in adaptability for changing technologies and infrastructure use.
Access Unleashed A shia of focus from access to one of mobility is underpinned by both an
increase in online interac4on and a decrease in personal transport. This shia in focus leads to more technology-‐enabled business model innova4ons.
Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
www.futureagenda.org
