The Dapa Program November 2009

The Decision and Policy Analysis Program

Our visionWe strongly believe in the power of

information for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource

investments, from the farm- to the global- level.

Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights.

Better public and private policies

Our modus operandi

Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis

Converting data to information to policy and decision insights

Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America

Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle

Silvia Elena Castaño Enna Diaz Betancourt

Simone Staiger Ana Milena Guerrero Glenn Graham Hyman

Anton Eitzineger

Lilian Patricia Torres

Carlos Nagles Jorge Cardona

Simon Cook

The Oldies

Andy Jarvis Robert Andrade

Natalia Uribe Julián Ramirez

Daniel Jimenez Vanesa Herrera

Nora Castañeda

Mike Salazar

Jhon Ocampo

Hector Favio Tobón

The Youth

Louis Reymondin

Ovidio RiveraElizabeth Barona

Juan Carlos Andrade

Katherin Tehelen

Victor Augusto Lizcano Angelica Ma. Henao Carolina Argote D.

Daniel Amariles

Oriana Carolina Ovalle

And the positively under-age

Emmanuel Zapata

The Peter Jones Scholarship for Agricultural Informatics

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Arreglo de disco

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Alternate servers

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Our themes

• Output 1: Impact assessment for targeting, documenting and increasing the effectiveness of research and development

• Output 2: Policy guidelines, tools and innovations for managing ecosystem services to the benefit of the rural poor

• Output 3: Estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, and identification of adaptation pathways for the rural poor

• Output 4: Policy guidelines and innovations to ensure pro-poor and equitable supply chains in the face of a highly dynamic world

Impact assessment and targetting

• Institutional house for impact assessment: quantifying and communicating our impact– Large-scale, multi-country, and beyond adoption

• Impact mapping: where and how to work?– For research and development

• Facilitating Impact Team (FIT): methods for maximising our impact through participatory methods

Targeting Cassava Pest and Disease Problems

Climate change

EnvironmentCharacterization

Facilitating Impact Team (FIT)

To improve the engagement processes and socialization mechanisms of CIAT’s research with their stakeholders throughout the project cycle and contribute to scaling out and up of research outputs.

– Increase the effectiveness of research and development activities through the use of knowledge sharing principles, tools, methods and monitoring methodologies.

Theme 2 - Ecosystem Services

CIAT’s work on Ecosystem services

• ES that have a national, regional or international market– Aboveground carbon– Water

• Putting the numbers on ES flows in an integrated manner (social, biophysical, and economic benefits)

• Learning from broad range of cases• Enabling the poor to engage and benefit

from emerging ES market opportunities

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Conservado Uso actual (con política

ambiental)

Uso fuera parque (sin política ambiental)

US

$/ha

/año

Valor de produccion agropecuaria

Costo total por erosión

Opportunity Costs through economic modelling

Costos de oportunidad en el espacio

Precio medio Precio maximo

Costo de oportunidad por t/CO2

Climate change

• Putting the numbers on impact: locally, regionally and globally

• Evaluating adaptation measures through scenario analysis at multiple levels– Policies (e.g. weather-index insurance)– Technologies (e.g. crop improvement)– Practices (e.g. use of shade crops)

• Influencing policy through clear messages delivered to the right people

Bases de Datos

• 18 modelos para 2050, 9 para 2020• Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit• Downscaled usando metodos estadisticos

http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/home.html

Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints

Grey areas are the crop’s main niche.

Blue areas constrained by precipitation

Yellow-orange constrained by temperature

Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments

Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

…….and for Latin America?Drought or flooding tolerance

30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance

1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint

2.23m Ha of current production

2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

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10

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35

-2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5%

Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos

Cam

bio

en

áre

as a

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les

[>80

%]

(%)

Áreas cultivadas

Áreas no-cultivadas

Total áreasadaptables

Toleracia a sequias

Toleracia a inundación

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5

10

15

20

25

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35

-2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5%

Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos

Cam

bio

en

áre

as a

dap

tab

les

[>80

%]

(%)

Áreas cultivadas

Áreas no-cultivadas

Total áreasadaptables

Toleracia a sequias

Toleracia a inundación

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

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Ropmin Ropmax Not benefited

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as b

enef

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das

(m

illi

ón

de

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táre

as)

Áreas cultivadas actualmente

Áreas no-cultivadasactualmente

…….and for Latin America?Heat or cold tolerance

27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance

2.23m Ha of current production

2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

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2

4

6

8

10

12

-2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC

Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo

Cam

bio

en

áre

as a

dap

tab

les

[>80

%]

(%)

Áreas cultivadas

Áreas no-cultivadas

Total áreas adaptables

Toleracia al calor

Toleracia al frío

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC

Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo

Cam

bio

en

áre

as a

dap

tab

les

[>80

%]

(%)

Áreas cultivadas

Áreas no-cultivadas

Total áreas adaptables

Toleracia al calor

Toleracia al frío

0

1

1

2

2

3

Topmin Topmax Not benefited

Áre

as b

enef

icia

das

(m

illó

n d

e h

ectá

reas

) Áreas cultivadas actualmente

Áreas no-cultivadasactualmente

BIG markets and BIG market opportunities

What public and private policies and organisational arrangements are needed for the poor to benefit from international markets in a globalised world?

Effective and sustained farm to market links require three components:

1.Farmers that are attractive partners for market actors

2.Market actors willing to invest in working with small producers

3.An effective enabling environment to support / govern these links

Enabling environment

(public / donor policies)

Willing buyers (private sector policies)

Capable farmers (skills, capacity &

organization)

Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets

New business models for sustained trading relationships

Lear

ning

allia

nces

publ

ic se

ctor

Learning alliances

with NGOs

Action research & incidence