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Mobile smart devices are omnipresent and are gaining more importance than the traditional PC as standard equipment for private computer users. This changed our everyday life a lot. Future developments of mobile devices show the potential to turn interaction principles and usage scenarios upside down. Let us peak behind the curtain of the labs and reveal future technology trends and their implications.
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6. Dezember 2012Slide 1
Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond
Dr. Klaus Alfert
cell phone usage is ubiquitous
Source: http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_vs_desktop-ww-monthly-200812-201210
Mobile web access is growing, yet desktops are still the big majority.
2008
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0%
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DesktopMobile
Tablets and Smartphones Sales outperform Notebooks and Desktop PCs
Number of Units Sold Wordwide (in percent)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Tablets
Smartphones
Notebook
Desktop
Source: Jan. 2012: Katy uberly, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research
Will smart devices stay here?
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
It is a culture issue of privacy and comfort
Early Phones
• At building entrance
• On the floor
• In the kitchen or living room
In the Sixties
• The long cable appears: make a call from your room!
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 6
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
The Big Failure: 1 bill $ loss
The ATT Picture Phone (1970)
• Too expensive
• Too few users
• Too early
And you lose both: comfort and privacy
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 7
Source: http://www.labguysworld.com/MyPicturephone_013.jpg
Tablets give you both:
comfort and privacy
Processing TechnologyWelcome to the Jungle
(Herb Sutter)
http://hdwallpaper.freehdw.com/0002/nature-landscapes_hdwallpaper_waterfall-in-the-jungle_17963.jpg
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
… but frequencies reach a saturation
Desktop processores stay for 10 years between 2-3 GHz
• Exceptions are very expensive mainframe processors
• Power consumption and heat are severe problems in chip design
Source: Herb Sutter, http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 11
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
What do chip designers do?
Making Use of Increased Chip Size
• Many core systems
• Big caches
Problems
• The need for parallel programming to use the many cores effectively
Homogenous
multi cores
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 12
Intel Core 2 Quad, 2007, 2 Cores x 2 Threads
Intel i7 »Nehalem« 2008, 4 Cores × 2 Threads
Intel i7 »Ivy Bridge«, 2011, 4 Cores, GPU
Intel Xeon Phi, 2012, 60 Cores, 1TFlop, 1 GHz
NVIDIA Tesla Kepler GK110, 2496 Cores, 1.1TFlop, 1.1GHz
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Future Developments: in 5-10 years relevant
Laser LEDs for communication between cores
• Not significantly faster (electrons are already at 70% of the speed of light)
• but without leakage currents and parasitic capacities less energy loss
• Higher bandwidth, less interference
Nano-Tubes
• Faster switching
• Reduced leaking energy
Perhaps: Quantum Computing
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 18
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Processors for smart devices are different
Designed for low power
• Reduced frequencies
• Reduced instruction sets (no fpu, no memory mgmt)
System-on-Chip (SoC) approaches
• Add periphery controllers
• Add additional processing units: DSP, GPU
Special Purpose Processors
• Apple’s A4 to A6 are designed for iPhone and iPad exclusively
• ARM processors at the core, but with custom enrichments
Heterogenous
Multi Cores
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 19
Apple A6 for iPhone 5, 2012, Dual Core, 1.3 GHz
NVIDIA Tegra 3, 2012, Quadcore, 1.4 GHz
For many users, mobile processors are strong enough,
so why bother with cables?
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Notebooks are already legacy devices… and have too many cables…
Getting rid of cables!
• Wifi instead of LAN cables
• With UMTS you can leave the office space
• Bluetooth for headsets
• Inductive charging
• NFC for paying, authentication, …
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 23
Source: http://press.nokia.com/wp-content/uploads/mediaplugin/photo/reso/700-nokia-wireless-charging-pillow-by-fatboy-with-nokia-lumia-920.jpg
Sensors
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
From Low Power to No Power:Smart Sensors
No Power design
• Special processor design
• Get power from environment when needed
• Allows for myriads of sensors
NFC: uses induction for energy transfer
Energy harvesting
• Piezo device use mechanical energy to create electrical power
• Use temperature differences6. Dezember 2012 Slide 25
Source: http://www.houseofjapan.com/images/thumbnails/images/2012/07/TDKAnnouncesIndustrysThinnestPowerreceivingCoilforSmartphones-620x350.jpg
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Smart Sensors give Smart Devices new roles
Smart Devices become
• Multiprotocol Communication Hubs
• Universal Displays
• User Controls
Smart Sensors in fixed locations give even more location awareness to Smart Devices
• NFC is just the beginning
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 26
http://www-static.se-mc.com/blogs.dir/0/files/2012/01/smarttags-main-image-620x440.png
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert 6. Dezember 2012 Slide 27
Examples for new Use-Cases: NFC with active Components
• Dynamic Access Control– Hotel Room– Office Buildings
• Reading and Buffering of Data– Detailed Error- and
Operation Logs of printers, cars, heating
– Meter Readings
• Execution of Transactions– Payment– E-Coupons
Passive Tag
Active Elemen
t
6. Dezember 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert Slide 28
Using Smart DevicesWhat to do with all that cool Hardware?
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
General Architecture
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 29
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
1
Architecture Tradeoffs
Amount of Data & Processing Power
Self-Contained,DisconnectednessLow Power
Where is the sweet spot for
your app?
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 30
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Design Approaches
Google Maps
• Local Display of Bitmaps, all intelligence in the cloud
SIRI Design
• Local Preprocessing, Compressed Transmission, Cloud for real processing
Context-aware add-on
• Add local information on top of Maps, …
Enable Offline/Disconnected Usage
• Basic information locally available, value added service via cloud
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 31
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
More than one device
The Architecture get’s complex
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 32
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Synchronization should simply work
Synchronization of several devices
• Via the cloud
• Directly, e.g. phone controls TV
• All of them
The Change in the Mindset:
• An eBook becomes a service to provide more value
What is the added value for the user?
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 33
Convergence
http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_Insurrection
What to do after inventing the iPod?
Tony Fadell
Source: http://nest.com
The thermostat for the smartphone generation
Source: http://nest.com, http://9.mshcdn.com/wp-content/gallery/nest-v2-0/Nest%20iPhone%20App.jpg
Smart Devices as standard UI for all devices
Augmented Reality @ Smithsonian
http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/ideas/2012/08/augmented-reality-livens-up-museums/
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mercedes-benz-mbrace/id335276900?mt=8
Control your car with your iPhone
Use your Smart Device as Navigation System
Source: http://www.imaedia.de/automotive/praxistest-opel-adam-infotainment-navigation-bringgo-app-infinity-sound-interview-video/
Everything is a display for my Smart Device.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8EZCPbykfQ
Screens in Wall-Size
http://www.techfresh.net/panasonic-life-wall/
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
Smart Devices become invisible
Smart Devices will be incorporated in
• Glasses
• Earphones
• Clothes
• <your invention goes here>
This will change all aspects of user experience with Smart Devices!
• Increased importance of speech input and output!
6. Dezember 2012
https://plus.google.com/+projectglass/posts
Slide 43
© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert
ConvergenceThe User Paradox
Smart Devices as electronic documents• All documents can be shared between
systems• But sometimes one simply wants to take a
document in each hand
This is how humans work and think: The body is an important concept for humans!
6. Dezember 2012 Slide 44
http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_Insurrection
© Zühlke 2012
Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond
Dr. Klaus Alfert
Making Use Of CamerasGesture Recognition
http://www.bitrebels.com/technology/kinect-hack-minority-report-user-interface-duplicated/
The Kinect-Prototype to control an app via gestures
only
Courtesy of Microsoft & GestSure
Concluding Remarks
We have some cool technologies.We can envision some standard architectures.
fit to the culture (changing over time!)
are at the right time
fit to psychological disposition
fit to the task context (specific contexts may need different solutions)
solve a real need of the customer
adds value for the customer
But what we need are new applications that …
Dr. Klaus AlfertEmail: klaus.alfert@zuehlke.comhttp://xing.to/alferthttp://de.linkedin.com/pub/klaus-alfert/87/9b1/93a
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