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Maybe you can already recite the sales pitch for cloud computing in your sleep—how it’s faster, more flexible, and economical than amassing your own servers on site. But, as Joe Weinman argues in “Rethinking the Business Benefits of Cloud,” that’s just scratching the surface. In these slides, Joe Weinman, author of Cloudonomics: The Business Value of Cloud Computing, explores some of the overlooked—and more nuanced—business benefits of moving workloads to the cloud, such as faster innovation, global expansion, and customer satisfaction.
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Rethinking the Business Benefits of the Cloud
GigaOm Research
Joe Weinman
joeweinman at gmail
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 2
Cloudonomics
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 3
Common
Location-independent
Online
Utility
on-Demand
Quantitative Analysis of Clouds.
- Penalty Cost Reduction to for independent demands
- Latency to for n nodes, adjusted by
- Hub vs. P2P Benefit of Connections; Latency Penalty of
- Pure Cloud Better when ; Hybrid Best with Breakeven at
- Linear Benefit for Exponential for ; for Random Walk
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
- Smart networks improvement on paths
@joeweinman
“The Benefits of the Cloud are Cost Reduction and
Business Agility”
4@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Revenue Growth
5@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 6
Does IT Matter??
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 7
Firm ProfitabilityFixed Effect Models*
Base Model Incl Sales, OPEX
IT 1.912 1.837
Sales 0.054
OPEX 0.137
Advertising 0.155 0.142
R&D 1.001 0.993
R2 (overall) 0.49 0.51
Observations 276
Number of Firms 86
@joeweinman
Source: Sunil Mithas, Ali Tafti, Indranil Bardhan, and Jie Mein Goh, “Information Technology and Firm Profitability: Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence”
Range of IT Value
8@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
The Discipline of Market Leaders
9@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 10
Digital Disciplines
@joeweinman
Digital Technology+
Value Disciplines=
Digital Disciplines
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 11
Updating the Value Disciplines?
@joeweinman
Value Discipline
“Virtual” Extrapolation
(Physical) Operational Excellence
Virtual Operational Excellence
(Physical)Product
Leadership
Virtual Product
Leadership
(Face-to-Face)Customer Intimacy
Virtual Customer Intimacy
Source: NYTimes.com
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 12
Updating the Value Disciplines
@joeweinman
Value Discipline “Virtual” Extrapolation
Digital Discipline
Operational Excellence
Virtual Operational Excellence
Information Excellence
Product Leadership
Virtual Product Leadership
Solution Leadership
Customer Intimacy
Virtual Customer Intimacy
Collective Intimacy
(Traditional Innovation) Accelerated Innovation
Information Excellence
13@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Solution Leadership
14@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
15@joeweinman
Collective Intimacy
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Business Agility
16@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 17
Product Life CycleR
even
ue
Time
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 18
Industry RivalsIn
du
stry
Riv
als
Time
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 19
Industry ProfitIn
du
stry
Pro
fit
Time
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 20
Industry ProfitIn
du
stry
Pro
fit
Time
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Lower Development
Expenses
Higher ProfitTime ValueOf Money
LowerMarketing Costs
Lower ForecastRisk
Higher MarketShare
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 21
Digital Business Intervals
Time
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Time to Market
Time to Volume
Platformas a Service
Infrastructureas a Service
@joeweinman
Accelerated Innovation
22@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 23
Accelerated Innovation
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
Challenge
Solutions
??Solution
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 24
Accelerated Innovation
Netflix InnocentiveGoldcorp
@joeweinman
New Business Models
25@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 26
Business Model Generation
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 27
The Business Model Canvas
KeyPartners
KeyResources
ValueProposition
Channels
CustomerSegments
KeyActivities
Cost Structure
CustomerRelationships
Revenue Streams
Source: Alex Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur, Business Model Generation
@joeweinman
Nike Basketball Hyperdunk+
Source: Nike.com
28@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 29
Automobile Insurance
@joeweinman
- Speed- Route- Distance- Acceleration
Global Market Expansion
30@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
31
The Networked Economy
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
@joeweinman
Greater Bandwidth & More Endpoints
Greater GlobalKnowledge-Intensive Flows
Faster Growth than Labor, Capital-Intensive Segments
Increasing NetworkUbiquity
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Enhanced User Experience
32@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Amdahl’s Law.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 33@joeweinman
S
P
Cloud Response Time.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 34@joeweinman
Geo Dispersion.
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 35@joeweinman
The Law of Cloud Response Time.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 36@joeweinman
T = F + N + PSingle Entities
T = F + N + P__ __√n p
Multiplicity of Nodes and Processors
( )n = ∛ QN 2
2PMinimum Time for a given Quantity of resources
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Priority of Dispersion
Cost Reduction
37@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1
25
4
100
Statistical Multiplexing of IID RVs.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 38@joeweinman
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 6 11 16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
10
11
06
111
116
12
11
26
13
11
36
14
11
46
15
11
56
16
11
66
17
11
76
18
11
86
19
11
96
20
1
Inverse Square Root Behavior.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 39@joeweinman
Cloud Cost Structures.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 40@joeweinman
SG&A, Margin, Uncollectibles, …
Economies of Scale
Diseconomies
Scale-Invariant Costs
Cost
(/P
rice
)
Consumer TypicalEnterprise
Well-RunEnterprise
Mid-SizeCloud SP
LargestCloud SP
1. U < 1 A * U * C * T <= P * U * C * T < P * 1 * C * T = P * C * T
2. U = 1 & A=P A * U * C * T = P * U * C * T = P * 1 * C * T = P * C * T
3. U = 1 & A < P A * U * C * T < P * U * C * T = P * 1 * C * T = P * C * T
4. 1 < U < ( P / A ) A * U * C * T < A * (P / A) * C * T = P * C * T
5. U > 1, & (Tp / T) < (1 / U)
[(P - ε) * T * C] + [ε * Tp * C * U] < [(P - ε) * T * C] + [ε * T * C]
6. (TNZ / T) > (1 / U) & U > 1 ε * T * C < ε * TNZ * U * C
7. D uniform, U > 1 TotalCost = [F * T * C] + [ ½V * (V / P) * T * U * C]
Min(TotalCost) when 0 = [T * C] * [0 – 1 + V * U / P] V / P = 1 / U
A = Average, P = Peak, C = Baseline Resource Cost, U = Utility Premium, T = Time, Tp = Peak Duration,TNZ = Non-Zero Baseline Duration, F = Fixed Capacity, V = Variable Capacity, D = Demand over Time
The Math.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 41@joeweinman
All other things being equal:
1. If cloud services cost less than enterprise IT, then…
…use them
2. If cloud services cost more than enterprise IT, then…
…don’t…
…jump to conclusions, because if demand is “spikier” than the cloud is “costly,” a pure cloud solution will cost less than a dedicated one
3. If demand has any variation, a hybrid solution is optimal
The English.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 42@joeweinman
Hybrid Economics, P/A>U>1.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 43@joeweinman
Private PublicHybrid
Cost
$$$
$$
$
Stateless Elasticity BC/DR
Content/Service Delivery Data Integration
Hybrids over Space.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 44@joeweinman
Dev/Test Production Production Dev/Test
Migration to Cloud Migration from Cloud
Hybrids over Time.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 45@joeweinman
Risk Mitigation
46@joeweinman © 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
Linear Demand Growth.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 47@joeweinman
Time
Demand D(t) = a+bt
t1
UnservedDemand u Resources R(t)
t2
ProvisioningTime tp
Time
Demand D(t) = et
Resources R(t)=e(t-tp)
UnservedDemand
t1 t2
tp
tp
Exponential Demand Growth.
Source: Joe Weinman, Cloudonomics
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 48@joeweinman
White Papers.
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved 49@joeweinman
Thank You
joeweinman at gmail
@joeweinman
© 2014 Joe Weinman. All Rights Reserved
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