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The term Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) was coined over two decades ago to designate applications of information and communication technologies to the operational management of transportation networks. The main promise of ITS has been very consistent over that period: network capacity can be freed up by optimizing traffic controls and empowering users with accurate travel information. It can be debated how much faith practitioners and policy makers have placed in technology by investing their resources, as well as the extent to which Intelligent Transportation Systems have delivered on their promise. However, there is no question that steady and sometimes spectacular advances in computing technologies and usage trickle down to transportation applications in important ways. As a result, new products and services emerge continuously. They include systems that address the direct needs of networks managers, as well as others that are developed in tangential markets (e.g. automotive) or even through non-market mechanisms (e.g. many mobile web applications). This talk presentation reviews major trends in information and communication technologies and demonstrate how each of them is driving innovative transportation services. We attempt to envision how those trends might develop in the future, so that we can finally examine some of their implications for travel demand and network management. There lie both challenges and opportunities for transportation engineers and planners, but either way, profound changes appear inevitable.
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Intelligent Transportation Trends and Perspectives
2011
J.D. Margulici
jdm@novavia.us
www.novaviasolutions.com
Chapter 9: Prospective and Implications
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ITS primer and brief history
State of the art
Information technology trends
Prospective and implications
J.D. Margulici
jdm@novavia.us
www.novaviasolutions.com
Intelligent Transportation
Trends and Perspectives
2011
ITS Applications in 2020
Traffic Operations (monitoring, dispatch…)
Advanced Traffic Management Systems
Advanced Traveler Information Systems
Public Transit Operations
Tolling / Enforcement
Commercial Vehicle Operations
Intelligent Vehicles
Infrastructure-side Active Safety
Parking Management
Mobility Services
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 3
ITS Applications in 2020
Traffic Operations (monitoring, dispatch…)
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 4
eCall, next-gen 911 implemented
Software deployed to enable integrated operations
Probe-based monitoring becomes dominant
ITS Applications in 2020
Advanced Traffic Management Systems
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 5
Evolution will still be slow in the coming decade
Hundreds of miles of managed lanes rolled out
Pricing much more likely to impact congestion
ITS Applications in 2020
Advanced Traveler Information Systems
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 6
Estimates AND predictions will be quite reliable
Information will be as trivial as weather info
Expect fights / regulations over alternative routes
ITS Applications in 2020
Public Transit Operations
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 7
Real-time information will be ubiquitous
Service quality will become a management variable
Route planning might become more responsive
ITS Applications in 2020
Tolling / Enforcement
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 8
Transportation payments integrated with credit cards
DSRC tolling likely in the US, but video backup will remain
VMT pricing will be piloted in the coming decade
Variable / discriminatory pricing will be common place
Car models to ship with speed limiters –end of speeding?
Expect privacy vs. safety debate to become high-profile
ITS Applications in 2020
Commercial Vehicle Operations
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 9
First automated driving operations to roll out
Safety record will improve significantly
HazMat / security tech. driven by politics, not policies
ITS Applications in 2020
Intelligent Vehicles
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 10
Dramatic gains in active safety
Some autonomous driving on high-end vehicles
Human errors will cause disproportionate nb. of accidents
ITS Applications in 2020
Infrastructure-side Active Safety
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 11
This will fall off the radar
Cooperative systems and in-vehicle alerts will do the trick
ITS Applications in 2020
Parking Management
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 12
Most parking will still be dumb and free…
Cheaper sensors will spread on urban parking spaces
Payments will be by mobile phone / smart cards
ITS Applications in 2020
Mobility Services
ITS Trends and Perspectives - April 2011 13
Telematics services standard in every car
Carsharing will grow by order(s) of magnitude
Carpooling will be driven by pricing only
Insurance plans will look more like cell phone plans
Maybe even mobility plans that bundle cars, transit, cabs
Intelligent Transportation Trends and Perspectives
2011
J.D. Margulici
jdm@novavia.us
www.novaviasolutions.com
Part I: Introduction Thank you for your attention!
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