Evolution of Mobile Networks - Impact and Possibilities for Future Services

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 1

Oxford University CPDFuture Technology Conference

April 2009

Evolution of Mobile NetworksImpact and Possibilities for Future Services

Martin Sauter

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 2

Who Am I• Working on wireless projects for a network

infrastructure vendor• (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger• Book Author

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 3

Future Services By Whom?• Internet based companies (Google, Skype,

Yahoo, startups, etc.)• Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at

the beginning, later funded by advertising and premium services

• Network Operators• Their business model: Pay for services from day

one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficultThis presentation looks at how Network Operators

can benefit from the Network Evolution

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 4

Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are Evolving• UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+• LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds• Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like

higher order modulation and MIMO.• Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere• The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for

some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks.• The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected

places!

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 5

Higher Speeds But Not EverywhereEricsson Review article shows maximum speed depending on location.

http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p (not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2)

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 6

Cellular Capacity Today and Tomorrow• 3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km²

(4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier)

• Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's good for 800 users per km²

• Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km²(use of full capacity in 900, 1800, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE)

→ But: Who can predict how many people will use the system in the future and how traffic develops?

* If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please contact me via http://www.wirelessmoves.com

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 7

Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances• ADSL speeds are increasing• ADSL2+ available in many

locations• VDSL now being deployed:

But: Expensive!• Fiber to the Home

→ Almost infinite capacity and reachability. But: Even more expensive!And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless!

A VDSL cabinet

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 8

Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless Reintegration• Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets

again. • With the Internet, operators have finally

understood that it makes no sense anymore to offer fixed and mobile services separately as most users want both! → Usability break!

• Complete reversal over earlier trend!

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 9

Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use of Fixed Line Assets• Femtos will be integrated

into a single DSL-modem /Wi-Fi / Picocell package.

• The first obvious use: It's good for offloading a significant amount of traffic from the macro network.

Image: ip.access

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 10

Putting all 4 Trends together leads to: Connected Home Services• „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3

players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage containing pictures, videos, and other private information)

• Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them also while being outside the home network via the cellular network over an encrypted link.

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 11

Connected Home ServicesFemtos vs. Wi-Fi• Femtos great for network operators• Wi-Fi great for Internet companies• Who will win?• Maybe both should win?• Peaceful coexistence.• Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest,

most convenient). Possible with both femtos and Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 12

Trend 5: Cloud Computing• What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources

in the network and storing data (calendar, address book, files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet.

• Many interesting possibilities, BUT: storing private data on the Internet is not to everyone's liking → inherent privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted.

→ Connected Home Networks offer an alternative to storage in the cloud to protect data and privacy!

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 13

Summary• Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution• Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution• Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration• Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi

→ These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services• Trend 5: Cloud Computing• Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home

→ Great possibilities for network operators in the future!

Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 14

Thank You!

For further information and to get in contact please visit

http://www.wirelessmoves.com