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This presentation discusses the evolution of mobile networks and the resulting potential for future devices and applications. Drivers are, for example, LTE, HSPA+, higher speeds, more bandwidth, fixed-mobile convergence, DSL and cable access in an overall network strategy, cloud computing, connected home services, always best connected, social networks and privacy.
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 1
Oxford University CPDFuture Technology Conference
April 2009
Evolution of Mobile NetworksImpact and Possibilities for Future Services
Martin Sauter
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 2
Who Am I• Working on wireless projects for a network
infrastructure vendor• (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger• Book Author
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 3
Future Services By Whom?• Internet based companies (Google, Skype,
Yahoo, startups, etc.)• Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at
the beginning, later funded by advertising and premium services
• Network Operators• Their business model: Pay for services from day
one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficultThis presentation looks at how Network Operators
can benefit from the Network Evolution
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 4
Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are Evolving• UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+• LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds• Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like
higher order modulation and MIMO.• Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere• The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for
some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks.• The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected
places!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 5
Higher Speeds But Not EverywhereEricsson Review article shows maximum speed depending on location.
http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p (not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2)
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 6
Cellular Capacity Today and Tomorrow• 3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km²
(4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier)
• Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's good for 800 users per km²
• Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km²(use of full capacity in 900, 1800, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE)
→ But: Who can predict how many people will use the system in the future and how traffic develops?
* If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please contact me via http://www.wirelessmoves.com
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 7
Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances• ADSL speeds are increasing• ADSL2+ available in many
locations• VDSL now being deployed:
But: Expensive!• Fiber to the Home
→ Almost infinite capacity and reachability. But: Even more expensive!And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless!
A VDSL cabinet
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 8
Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless Reintegration• Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets
again. • With the Internet, operators have finally
understood that it makes no sense anymore to offer fixed and mobile services separately as most users want both! → Usability break!
• Complete reversal over earlier trend!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 9
Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use of Fixed Line Assets• Femtos will be integrated
into a single DSL-modem /Wi-Fi / Picocell package.
• The first obvious use: It's good for offloading a significant amount of traffic from the macro network.
Image: ip.access
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 10
Putting all 4 Trends together leads to: Connected Home Services• „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3
players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage containing pictures, videos, and other private information)
• Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them also while being outside the home network via the cellular network over an encrypted link.
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 11
Connected Home ServicesFemtos vs. Wi-Fi• Femtos great for network operators• Wi-Fi great for Internet companies• Who will win?• Maybe both should win?• Peaceful coexistence.• Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest,
most convenient). Possible with both femtos and Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 12
Trend 5: Cloud Computing• What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources
in the network and storing data (calendar, address book, files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet.
• Many interesting possibilities, BUT: storing private data on the Internet is not to everyone's liking → inherent privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted.
→ Connected Home Networks offer an alternative to storage in the cloud to protect data and privacy!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 13
Summary• Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution• Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution• Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration• Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi
→ These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services• Trend 5: Cloud Computing• Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home
→ Great possibilities for network operators in the future!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009 14
Thank You!
For further information and to get in contact please visit
http://www.wirelessmoves.com