Devnest #7 Mobile Industry Review

DEVNEST #7Ewan MacleodMobile Industry Review

Standby

• About Me• Mobile Platforms• Feature & Smartphones• iPhone, Symbian, BlackBerry, Android• Developer Case Study• The $400 iPhone app

ABOUT ME

Tweeting before any of you

Sort of…

The Mobile industry

Let’s have some statistics…

4.6 BILLIONMobile subscribers on Earth (Tomi Ahonen)

-1.6 billion TVs, 850m subscribers-1.7 billion credit cards

1.2 BILLIONHandsets sold in 2009 (Gartner)

- 300m TVs- 280m new PCs

Feature vs Smart

Gap is narrowing quickly

Feature Phone£18

Smart Phone£500

Nokia N900

From £12.45

Phone sales breakdown…

Handset sales in 2009

Handset sales in 2009

Gartner, Feb 2010

Handset sales in 2009

Gartner, Feb 2010

Nokia shipped 1.4m phones

today

Nokia shipped 1.4m phones

today

In the UK…

• 19 million handsets sold last year

• 85% of adults own a mobile phone

• Saturated marketplace

• Vodafone: 18m• O2: 22m• T-Mobile: 17m• Orange: 17m• Three: 4.4m• (TMOrange: 34m)

So what mobile platforms are popular for developers?

Source: Ewan’s mind

2009 Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner

Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner, Feb 2010

Proper mobile handsets are becoming easily accessible

Examples…

UK iPhone Sales

• O2: 2 million• Orange & Vodafone just went live– Vodafone: • 50,000 pre-orders, 100k in 1st week

– Orange: • 30,000 on first day

Don’t forget the rest

• Say 3 million iPhones in the UK?• Leaves roughly 50-60m handsets waiting for

developer attention

Mobile Applications

“There’s gold in them there hills”

Developing on iPhone…

• With 140,000 apps, it’s a total lottery

Developing on iPhone

The Good• Easy to develop• Gorgeous process• Fantastically easy to find and

install the app• Fancy, cool• Users accustomed to

downloading apps• Users actively hunt for new

apps• Billing baked right in• Pre-qualified – users have

money

The Bad• Discovery problem is

absolutely massive• Discovery problem is

absolutely massive• Discovery problem is

absolutely massive• Roughly 3-4% of the UK • Approval: You need to play

Apple’s game

SYMBIANThe open behemoth

Symbian

Developing on Symbian• Addressable market of 300 million+• Used to be quite a pain• 2009: Forget Symbian… • 2010: Watch them closely• Nokia’s Ovi Store is doing well– Respectable 1.5m downloads daily– Ovi Store baked into all new handsets

• Qt development – Will completely change developer paradigm– Write-once deploy anywhere SDK– Qt.nokia.com

ANDROIDNot what you think

Android: Not quite primetime

• Still very, very small handset population• Fragmenting continually• Making the same Symbian mistakes– App development: Equivalent to launching show at

2am on a digital TV station

• Monitor growth of Android but watch Symbian• Smart money is on manufacturers switching

back to Symbian

BLACKBERRY

BlackBerry

• Often forgotten, but making huge consumer gains

• Large legacy device population– Most corporate devices locked to applications

• Very keen to work with and support developers

• Consumers appear keen to spend money on AppWorld

VODAFONE360 degrees of joy?

http://jil.vodafone.com

Vodafone 360

• “Access 1.1 billion customers”• Perhaps 3-4% are addressable– That is, using handsets with the 360 store

• Very keen to see submissions• Can be potentially lucrative– Nobody else is bothering

• More information: http://jil.vodafone.com

Developer Opportunities

Mobile co’s desperate for your attention

Developer Case Study

How big is yours?

DILEMMAThe application developer dilemma: Disclose stats or stay silent?

Simon Maddox

Independent developerwww.simonmaddox.com

‘0870’

0870 by Simon Maddox• Finds alternatives to 35p/min 0845 and 0870

numbers• Free of charge• Spent 429 days ‘in review’ – Whilst Apple & o2 wondered what to do

• Advertising funded using AdMob• Saved users £268,000 in one month• Launched with good press from:– The Telegraph, The Guardian, TechCrunch

• Acceptance delay = good, juicy story

0870 Download Stats

From end of Sept to end of October, 2009www.simonmaddox.com

0870 Ad Revenue Stats• Day 1: position 79, $25.58• Day 2: position 29, $67.04• Day 3: position 7, $120.08 <- peak in ad revenue• Day 4: position 5, $118.76• Day 5: position 4, $62.48 <- peak in charts• Day 6: position 5, $49.41• Day 7: position 5, $33.23• Day 8: position 5, $40.03• Day 9: position 7, $23.96• Day 10: position 8, $15.28• Day 11: position 16, $17.45• Day 12: position 17, $27.37• Day 13: position 25, $36.40• Day 14: position 30, $25.65• Day 15: position 30, $18.01• Total: $680.73 (£457)

$9/day = £2,204 a year

Downloads since launch

Downloads since launch

MoneySavingExpert.comMoneySavingExpert.com

Downloads in the last 30 days

Downloads in the last 30 days

Featured in Sunday TimesFeatured in Sunday Times

0870 by numbers• iPhone downloads: 427,484– Best chart position: 4– Approval time: 429 days

• Android downloads: 14,244– Best chart position: 21– Approval time: 1 second

• Palm Pre: 1,943– Best chart position: 1 (for 4 hours)– Approval time: 5 working days

• Quick tweet to @palm and @adora sped things up• Acquisition requests: 3

TWITTERQuite a few mobile twitter clients…

Twitter on mobile• Echofone Pro• Tweetie • Tweetie 2 • I use the mobile browser• I tweet by SMS :)• Gravity• Dabr (browser based)• Twidroid for Android• Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1• Twitterberry• TweetDeck• SocialScope on BlackBerry

• Snaptu on RIM• Twitter Pro• TweetDeck• TweetS60• Twittix on N95• Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone• Twitdroid• UberTwitter for BlackBerry• Tweetss60 / dabr• Twitterific• Pocket Twit on Windows

Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010

Twitter on mobile• Echofone Pro• Tweetie • Tweetie 2 (Top Paid, UK)• I use the mobile browser• I tweet by SMS :)• Gravity• Dabr (browser based)• Twidroid for Android• Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1• Twitterberry• TweetDeck• SocialScope on BlackBerry

• Snaptu on RIM• Twitter Pro• TweetDeck• TweetS60• Twittix on N95• Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone• Twitdroid• UberTwitter for BlackBerry• Tweetss60 / dabr• Twitterific (Top Free, UK)• Pocket Twit on Windows

Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010

Thinking about developing mobile applications?Things to consider…

Developing on mobile• Platform– Choose the most appropriate for your concept

• Revenue– Ad-funded? Pay-per-download? In-app billing?

• Audience– Make sure you’re targeting an interested audience

• Reach that audience– Don’t rely on a press release

• Think industry/niche magazines, groups, associations, businesses

Finding a developer

• In the UK, expect to pay £400-500+/day for most platforms– Or find a friend

• Eastern European agencies are popular• eLance.com– And other hire sites

$400Regarding iPhone development: What does $400 get you?

Questions?

em@ewan.net+44 7769 658 104@ew4n