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This is the mobile overview presentation I delivered to Devnest #7 in London on Wednesday 10th March.
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DEVNEST #7Ewan MacleodMobile Industry Review
Standby
• About Me• Mobile Platforms• Feature & Smartphones• iPhone, Symbian, BlackBerry, Android• Developer Case Study• The $400 iPhone app
ABOUT ME
Tweeting before any of you
Sort of…
The Mobile industry
Let’s have some statistics…
4.6 BILLIONMobile subscribers on Earth (Tomi Ahonen)
-1.6 billion TVs, 850m subscribers-1.7 billion credit cards
1.2 BILLIONHandsets sold in 2009 (Gartner)
- 300m TVs- 280m new PCs
Feature vs Smart
Gap is narrowing quickly
Feature Phone£18
Smart Phone£500
Nokia N900
From £12.45
Phone sales breakdown…
Handset sales in 2009
Handset sales in 2009
Gartner, Feb 2010
Handset sales in 2009
Gartner, Feb 2010
Nokia shipped 1.4m phones
today
Nokia shipped 1.4m phones
today
In the UK…
• 19 million handsets sold last year
• 85% of adults own a mobile phone
• Saturated marketplace
• Vodafone: 18m• O2: 22m• T-Mobile: 17m• Orange: 17m• Three: 4.4m• (TMOrange: 34m)
So what mobile platforms are popular for developers?
Source: Ewan’s mind
2009 Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner
Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner, Feb 2010
Proper mobile handsets are becoming easily accessible
Examples…
UK iPhone Sales
• O2: 2 million• Orange & Vodafone just went live– Vodafone: • 50,000 pre-orders, 100k in 1st week
– Orange: • 30,000 on first day
Don’t forget the rest
• Say 3 million iPhones in the UK?• Leaves roughly 50-60m handsets waiting for
developer attention
Mobile Applications
“There’s gold in them there hills”
Developing on iPhone…
• With 140,000 apps, it’s a total lottery
Developing on iPhone
The Good• Easy to develop• Gorgeous process• Fantastically easy to find and
install the app• Fancy, cool• Users accustomed to
downloading apps• Users actively hunt for new
apps• Billing baked right in• Pre-qualified – users have
money
The Bad• Discovery problem is
absolutely massive• Discovery problem is
absolutely massive• Discovery problem is
absolutely massive• Roughly 3-4% of the UK • Approval: You need to play
Apple’s game
SYMBIANThe open behemoth
Symbian
Developing on Symbian• Addressable market of 300 million+• Used to be quite a pain• 2009: Forget Symbian… • 2010: Watch them closely• Nokia’s Ovi Store is doing well– Respectable 1.5m downloads daily– Ovi Store baked into all new handsets
• Qt development – Will completely change developer paradigm– Write-once deploy anywhere SDK– Qt.nokia.com
ANDROIDNot what you think
Android: Not quite primetime
• Still very, very small handset population• Fragmenting continually• Making the same Symbian mistakes– App development: Equivalent to launching show at
2am on a digital TV station
• Monitor growth of Android but watch Symbian• Smart money is on manufacturers switching
back to Symbian
BLACKBERRY
BlackBerry
• Often forgotten, but making huge consumer gains
• Large legacy device population– Most corporate devices locked to applications
• Very keen to work with and support developers
• Consumers appear keen to spend money on AppWorld
VODAFONE360 degrees of joy?
http://jil.vodafone.com
Vodafone 360
• “Access 1.1 billion customers”• Perhaps 3-4% are addressable– That is, using handsets with the 360 store
• Very keen to see submissions• Can be potentially lucrative– Nobody else is bothering
• More information: http://jil.vodafone.com
Developer Opportunities
Mobile co’s desperate for your attention
Developer Case Study
How big is yours?
DILEMMAThe application developer dilemma: Disclose stats or stay silent?
Simon Maddox
Independent developerwww.simonmaddox.com
‘0870’
0870 by Simon Maddox• Finds alternatives to 35p/min 0845 and 0870
numbers• Free of charge• Spent 429 days ‘in review’ – Whilst Apple & o2 wondered what to do
• Advertising funded using AdMob• Saved users £268,000 in one month• Launched with good press from:– The Telegraph, The Guardian, TechCrunch
• Acceptance delay = good, juicy story
0870 Download Stats
From end of Sept to end of October, 2009www.simonmaddox.com
0870 Ad Revenue Stats• Day 1: position 79, $25.58• Day 2: position 29, $67.04• Day 3: position 7, $120.08 <- peak in ad revenue• Day 4: position 5, $118.76• Day 5: position 4, $62.48 <- peak in charts• Day 6: position 5, $49.41• Day 7: position 5, $33.23• Day 8: position 5, $40.03• Day 9: position 7, $23.96• Day 10: position 8, $15.28• Day 11: position 16, $17.45• Day 12: position 17, $27.37• Day 13: position 25, $36.40• Day 14: position 30, $25.65• Day 15: position 30, $18.01• Total: $680.73 (£457)
$9/day = £2,204 a year
Downloads since launch
Downloads since launch
MoneySavingExpert.comMoneySavingExpert.com
Downloads in the last 30 days
Downloads in the last 30 days
Featured in Sunday TimesFeatured in Sunday Times
0870 by numbers• iPhone downloads: 427,484– Best chart position: 4– Approval time: 429 days
• Android downloads: 14,244– Best chart position: 21– Approval time: 1 second
• Palm Pre: 1,943– Best chart position: 1 (for 4 hours)– Approval time: 5 working days
• Quick tweet to @palm and @adora sped things up• Acquisition requests: 3
TWITTERQuite a few mobile twitter clients…
Twitter on mobile• Echofone Pro• Tweetie • Tweetie 2 • I use the mobile browser• I tweet by SMS :)• Gravity• Dabr (browser based)• Twidroid for Android• Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1• Twitterberry• TweetDeck• SocialScope on BlackBerry
• Snaptu on RIM• Twitter Pro• TweetDeck• TweetS60• Twittix on N95• Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone• Twitdroid• UberTwitter for BlackBerry• Tweetss60 / dabr• Twitterific• Pocket Twit on Windows
Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010
Twitter on mobile• Echofone Pro• Tweetie • Tweetie 2 (Top Paid, UK)• I use the mobile browser• I tweet by SMS :)• Gravity• Dabr (browser based)• Twidroid for Android• Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1• Twitterberry• TweetDeck• SocialScope on BlackBerry
• Snaptu on RIM• Twitter Pro• TweetDeck• TweetS60• Twittix on N95• Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone• Twitdroid• UberTwitter for BlackBerry• Tweetss60 / dabr• Twitterific (Top Free, UK)• Pocket Twit on Windows
Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010
Thinking about developing mobile applications?Things to consider…
Developing on mobile• Platform– Choose the most appropriate for your concept
• Revenue– Ad-funded? Pay-per-download? In-app billing?
• Audience– Make sure you’re targeting an interested audience
• Reach that audience– Don’t rely on a press release
• Think industry/niche magazines, groups, associations, businesses
Finding a developer
• In the UK, expect to pay £400-500+/day for most platforms– Or find a friend
• Eastern European agencies are popular• eLance.com– And other hire sites
$400Regarding iPhone development: What does $400 get you?
Questions?
[email protected]+44 7769 658 104@ew4n