030512 eric howard road safety lunch seminar

Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic

Eric Howard

Road Safety Advisor, INDII

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

Road safety performance in Indonesia.

• Estimated 32,000* road crash fatalities in Indonesia annually

• 90 deaths a day, a death every 16 minutes

• Estimated 320,000 serious injuries annually from road crashes

• Fatality rate per population is about 14* per 100,000. Compares to Sweden and the UK with fatality rates below 3.

• Relatively little community knowledge of scale of this disaster.

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic

Central Java - unofficial crash statistics (2011):

• 4400 people killed on roads

• Implies further 45,000 people seriously

injured in 2011 - Central Java.

• 25% of those deaths were 16 and

17 year olds, in equal proportions, usually

riding motorcycles.

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Road Safety Management

2 lane 2 way rural arterial road

speed limit 60 km/h

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Road Casualties in Indonesia:

The silent epidemic.

WHY?

• Motorisation rates

• Unpreparedness of system to cope

• High numbers of motorcycles

• High numbers of (and high proportion of overloaded) trucks

• Mix of the two

• Little provision for safe pedestrian movement – footpaths, obstacles, crossings

• Layers of social and economic pressures – eg school entries

• Linear urban development

• Lack of controls on highway roadside development

• Lack of practitioner knowledge

• Lack of $$ and political commitment

• Not much community awareness

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The silent epidemic. Lack of knowledge by practitioners

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. WHY?

Crash Types Factors Why that is

Many truck

crashes.

About 12% fatal

crashes (CJ

figures)

• Brakes fail

• Fatigue

• Overloaded trucks

• Overloading, poor maintenance

• Poor regulation and enforcement

• No adequate regulations or enforcement

• Need a level playing field to counter excess

behaviours driven by unsafe competitive pressures

(they are a negative incentive)

Many motor

cycle deaths

Run off road by trucks • Unsafe overtaking by trucks (inadequate enforcement,

inadequate penalties to change driver and company behaviour)

• No protection i.e., they are virtually pedestrians

• Mobility benefits overwhelm safety considerations

Continuous

urban

development

along

roads

Continuous

intersections

• Little regulatory control on roadside development, or on access

from properties to the roadway.

• DGH cannot set access conditions for new development

(economic pressures not adequately managed re safety)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

WHY?

Crash Types Factors What that is

Pedestrians • Footpaths not

useable so use road

• Crossings unsafe

and stopping not

observed by many

motorists

• Traders, hawkers, tree planting, parked cars and motor cycles

use footpath. Absence of public sector management to

counter

• Physical treatments to improve safety required

• Enforcement of compliance by riders and driver needed

• Regulations may need review

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The silent epidemic.

Linear urban development

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What are the crash issues?

Road crash fatalities across Indonesia:

Motorcyclists (50 - 60%) and pedestrians (20 – 30%).

• Both (with cyclists) make up vulnerable road users (not protected in a crash in way vehicle occupant is) - the substantial majority of Indonesian road fatalities.

Reasons for high pedestrian fatality rate

• Speed of passing vehicles - pedestrian areas

• Lack of footpaths

• Lack of crossing provision for pedestrians with associated speed control and warning signage for vehicles

• Vehicles failing to give way to pedestrians

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Provision for safe pedestrian movement ?

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Provision for safe pedestrian movement?

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Provision for safe pedestrian movement?

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Provision for safe pedestrian movement?

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What are the crash issues?

Road crash fatalities across Indonesia:

Motorcyclists (50 - 60%) and pedestrians (20 – 30%).

Reasons for high motorcyclist fatality rate

• Need to slow vehicles and motorcyclists down to safe speeds where sharing road – Speed of passing vehicles for motorcyclists

– Speed of motorcyclists

• Larger overtaking vehicles forcing motorcyclists off road

• Colliding with vehicles at intersections – other vehicles not seeing motorcyclist

– motorcyclist not seeing other vehicle.

– may not comply with red lights

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High risk mobility on the Pantura

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Unlicensed riding: major component in fatalities

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Mixing with large vehicles travelling at more than 40 km/h

Effective Road Safety Management?

Why don’t authorities find solutions?

Why do parents

appear not to place

high value on

helmets for their

children?

Cost?

Lack of knowledge?

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Run off road crashes. High fatality risk at higher speeds.

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Run off road hazards High fatality risk at higher speeds

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Run off road crashes. High fatality risk at higher speeds

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Lack of understanding of risk

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Unsafe heavy vehicles, usually overloaded

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Unsafe heavy vehicles, usually overloaded

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic The mix of trucks and motorcycles on high volume higher speed highways is catastrophic

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Head on crash risk. Major issue on busy roads

where traffic volumes prevent safe overtaking

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Uncontrolled continuous side access to roads

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Uncontrolled continuous side access to roads

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic Looking to a better future

Needs much improved community awareness that:

• road crashes are not inevitable,

• community has level of road safety it is prepared to

accept,

• road safety crash risks can be managed and

• policy choices and investment - which better

balance:

economic outcomes and safety, and

personal interest and community interest,

can save lives

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Changing what is considered acceptable behaviour

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Shifting behaviours - with attitudes to follow

Changing long standing community behaviours and attitudes - not a simple task.

Gaining community support for change essential.

It takes time.

With increasing support - much that can be done in a thoughtful way to reduce this human and economic waste.

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SAFE SYSTEM

Developing a safe system

• What is a safe system of road use?

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SAFE SYSTEM

When road users cannot be killed or seriously injured on the network.

• Human life and health are paramount • Individuals have a right to survive • Crashes always likely to happen, even with continuing focus on prevention. • Minimize severity of injury in a crash • Road users should not die because of system failings.

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SAFE SYSTEM

What does that require us to do?

• Safe system - a new, very different approach – a framework for long term elimination of serious casualties. • Much realignment in our thinking necessary if it is to be adopted/ applied • Provides many ‘levers’ for action

• How will we do it?

• What are the important steps?

SAFE SYSTEM

Safer

speeds (lower speeds

more forgiving

of human

errors)

Education and

information

supporting

road users

Human tolerance to

physical force

Alert and compliant road users

Safer roads

/ roadsides (more

forgiving of

human

errors)

Safer

Vehicles

SAFER TRAVEL

Understand

crashes and

risk

Legislation &

Enforcement

of road rules

Admittance to

the system

Emergency

medical

treatment

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SAFE SYSTEM

Understanding the Safe System concept : • recognise the Biomechanical tolerance limits = Human tolerance to physical force • the way the system elements interact with each

other • the crash outcome risks - Focus on injuries not crashes

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SAFE SYSTEM Recognise the ways of operating that make the current system unsafe.

• Safety usually squeezed out by economic interest, inconvenience and inattention

• Impacts often fall disproportionally on more vulnerable - young, old, marginalised

• Conditioning by environment – eg. growing up in certain environments , risk of loss of life on the road is seen as price for necessary mobility!

2007

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Redesigning system to make crashes survivable – the role of speed

50 30 10 110 90 70

Collision speed (km/h)

Fatality

risk

Zero

100%

Pedestrian

Side impact

Head-on

Safe System – Crash types and indicative fatality

risk at speeds: (from P. Wramborg, 2005)

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Crash types and limits of safe system impact speeds – for a light passenger vehicle environment

Crash Type Speed (km/h)

• Head on (Overtaking) < 70

• Intersections (Continuous Access) < 50

• Run off road < 50

• Pedestrians (crashes with vehicles) < 30

Kinetic Energy to be dissipated in a crash depends on: Mass x Speed x Speed

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Changes in mean speed and changes in crashes

Reducing mean speed by a few km/h will deliver large crash reductions

5% decrease in average speed gives a 14% reduction in serious injury crashes and a 20% reduction in fatal crashes

Elvik et al, (2004)

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

% change in speed

% c

han

ge i

n c

asu

alt

ies

Deaths

Serious injuries

Other injuries

Relationship between speed changes and changes in casualty rates (Elvik et al 2004)

Speed variations have a greater effect upon severe (fatal and serious injury) crashes

Speed reduction Speed increase Change in mean

speed -10% -5% -1% +1% +5% +10%

Change in:

Deaths -38% -21% -4% +5% +25% +54%

Serious injuries -27% -14% -3% +3% +16% +33%

Other injuries -15% -7% -1% +2% +8% +15%

Property damage

crashes -10% -5% -1% +1% +5% +10%

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What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? What are the critical issues? Because road safety is complex, distributed, reliant on strong ‘Whole of Government’ and community partnership actions – it is a case study in difficulty. Road safety performance is a snapshot of the overall day to day life of a society • Road safety management systems and capacity crucial

• Standards of governance in a society ?

Road safety performance and other social indicators

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX - RANKING (2010)

COUNTRY ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE (2008) Fatalities/ 100,000 popln.

ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE - RANKING

1 Denmark 9.3 20

1 New Zealand 8.57 18

1 Singapore 5.0

4 Finland 7.7 16

4 Sweden 4.32 3

6 Canada 7.18 14

7 Netherlands 4.13 2

8 Australia 6.8 11

8 Switzerland 4.7 5

10 Norway 5.38 7

11 Iceland 3.81 1

11 Luxembourg 7.23 15

13 Hong Kong

14 Ireland 6.34 10

15 Austria 8.15 17

15 Germany 5.45 8

17 Barbados

17 Japan 4.72 6

19 Qatar

20 United Kingdom 4.31 4

21 Chile

22 Belgium 10.08 21

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Road safety performance and other social indicators

http://www.globalhealtheurope.org

15 Germany 5.45 8

17 Barbados

17 Japan 4.72 6

19 Qatar

20 United Kingdom 4.31 4

21 Chile

22 Belgium 10.08 21

22 United States 12.25 22

24 Uruguay

25 France 6.91 13

26 Estonia

27 Slovenia

28 United A. Emirates

28 Cyprus

30 Spain 6.85 12

30 Israel 5.5 9

32 Portugal 8.7 19

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX - RANKING (2010)

COUNTRY ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE (2008) Fatalities/ 100,000 popln.

ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE - RANKING

1 Denmark 9.3 20

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What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? Many opportunities to change current situation.

1. Redesigning system over next, say, 30 years to make crashes survivable – safe system

• Completely new design philosophy for roads and streets • Speed limit related to biomechanics and road crashworthiness

• Integrated model for safe traffic

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

2. Gather information:

• Obtain good data - on crash type and crash location make available and develop analysis capabilities

Central Java crash data known because:

• new road crash data system is in development for Police

• now producing interim outputs.

Major potential advance for Indonesian road safety.

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Crash data: Preliminary 2012 YTD - North Sulawesi

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

KEJADIAN

MD

LB

LR

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Crash data: Preliminary YTD 2012 - North Sulawesi

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3. Take action

As: Authorities

Practitioners

Individuals

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3A. Actions by Road Authorities:

• identify highest risk parts of network (crash data) • develop guidelines for low cost/ high return work

• update: safety standards road safety audit policies

• ensure new projects are safe system compliant as far as feasible

• develop and apply knowledge on ‘safe system’ approaches and speed management. i.e. fix unprotected roadside hazards, seal shoulders for pedestrians and motorcyclists focus on intersection safety including signals

Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

Assessing risk on the network – major rural highways

2007

Frequent accesses,

effectively intersections,

development controls? Narrow pavement, no

linemarking

Uncontrolled parking

Bus passengers but no

formalised stops Inadequate footpaths for

pedestrians, no

crossings Unsealed uneven shoulders

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3B. Actions by Police • Upgrade police operations to achieve increased

enforcement and deterrence capacity (through, eg., early assistance from international police; training,

equipment). • Public perception of likely detection to be high • Consider new/ expanded fixed penalty system and ‘back room’ infringement processing capacity. • Upgrade systems to ensure driver offences recorded against license • When feasible, introduce a demerit point system • Strengthen justice system support for adopted government policy • Develop crash investigation skills

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3C. Supporting behaviour change: MoT

Understanding: • how legislative arrangements and supporting systems influence

behavioural compliance?

• which behavioural compliance improvements would maximise safe

system achievement?

• which policies, guidelines and standards are influential in their effect

upon road safety outcomes - and whose adjustment would provide

the best opportunities for improved performance

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? 3C. Ministry of Transport to: - Establish a road user behaviour capacity in DGLT

- Develop road safety research capacity in the Universities

- Adopt safety standards for new vehicles at international

good practice level

3D. Ministry of Education to: - Upgrade imparting good practice road safety knowledge to school children

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? 3C. Ministry of Transport Safer Vehicles - strengthen vehicle safety standards (eg., fitting rear seat belts, air bags, ESC)

- promote safer new and used cars to public

- promote new technologies to public - encourage riders to become drivers

(encourage low cost cars into market)

Safer heavy vehicles and safer buses

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3E. Local government Pedestrian safety including around Schools (potential pilot program)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? 3E. Local government Pedestrian safety including around Schools (potential pilot program)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? 3E. Local government Pedestrian safety including around Schools (potential pilot program)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? 3E. Local government

Pedestrian safety including around Schools (potential pilot program)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic. What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

3E. Local government Pedestrian safety including around Schools (potential pilot program)

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic Other key areas for action

• Hospitals.

Eg., Muhammadyah Hospital - serving the ‘killing fields’ of Lamongan district

• Licensing of drivers: Major opportunities to improve the testing, checking of status, to reduce casualties

• Public education: including information on road rules and campaigns in support of enforcement

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic.

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death?

4. SET UP ACCOUNTABILITY ARRANGEMENTS

• Agree responsibilities

• Agree results framework in coordination body - Measure intermediate outcomes – Certain of these accurately indicate final outcomes: average speeds presence of excess alcohol seat belt wearing rates % of vehicles with NCAP ratings helmet wearing rates

• How can the partners make decisions about - necessary adjustment to targets or press for improved performance? • Measure final outcomes

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic

What do we need to do to reduce this rate of death? • Road safety management and coordination across government in early stages, needs strengthening

• Serious lack of human and financial resources across national and local government For example: Condition of signs/ linemarking on many roads reflects underinvestment – negative safety impact. Adequate funding essential if conditions are to change.

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Looking ahead

Major knowledge transfer required to public • Consider use of Demonstration Projects (Pilot projects) to

support building expertise and community awareness

• Talk with the public about infrastructure safety standard/ speed limit combinations and resultant risk levels on the network

• Build understanding of risks/ solutions through this dialogue

Promote upwards to senior bureaucrats and politicians

Monitor & Evaluate initiatives

Build robust Indonesian R & D capability

Establish road user behaviour team in DGLT

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Road Safety Case Study

• 6 lane one way urban arterial road

• speed limit 60 km/h, usually exceeded

• school on far side of pedestrian crossing

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Good practice pedestrian operated signals in Surakarta

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic

Action by practitioners and individuals ?

Practitioners - drive what we have discussed

• Government and industry promoting vehicle

safety information and voluntary actions to public

• Senior officers advocating change within government

- building confidence that change is politically

manageable,

• Seek other partners (eg., professional associations)

• Ensuring outcomes are measured and published and

commented upon

Practitioners and robust knowledge transfer

arrangements - essential :

Within organisations o LG and NGO’s o Senior bureaucrats o Parliamentarians o Elected members in local authorities

• Senior people in agencies are crucial change agents, gatekeepers for advice to Ministers. Need to be well informed about science/ research/ evidence

• Do senior people in key agencies have sufficient knowledge to successfully advocate necessary change – with public, with Ministers?

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic

Action by practitioners and individuals ?

Individuals can promote:

• Helmet wearing

• Seat belt wearing (and availability in taxis)

• Not giving 12 year olds a m/cycle!

• Avoid using m/c’s: 30 times risk of vehicle occupant

• Buying a safer car (used car)

• Complying with road rules

• Advocating safer vehicle purchase and safe driving

practices in your workplaces (govt. purchasing policies)

• Talking to your colleagues and friends about what

improvement is possible and modelling that

behaviour.

Effective deterrence and improved standards

INDONESIA NEEDS TO:

• Build an appetite to embrace change, have aspiration

• Follow top down and bottom up efforts (national agencies and strategy/ local government activities)

• Build community knowledge of the silent epidemic & what

could be done

• Act on ‘how’ to achieve changes

• Performance: encourage accountability and reward it

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The scale of the road safety problem to be addressed over next 40 to 50 years

Effective Road Safety Management

First steps

towards

the long

term goal

Road safety efforts over the life of

new National Action Plan to 2020

Time

2007

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“Policymakers can make the traffic system as safe as they want to - the road crash problem is man-made and can be remedied’

P.A.M. Cornelissen MEP

Road Safety Rapporteur

European Parliament, 1999

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Road Casualties in Indonesia: The silent epidemic Thank you

Eric Howard

Road Safety Advisor, INDII