5 Trends in Technology for Missions for ICCM

5 Trends for Technology in Missions

Andrew SearsExecutive Director

Trend 1: The Long Tail Will Turn the World of Christian

Media Upside Down

Effect of the Long Tail: 80/20 Rule Becomes the 60/40 Rule

Before the Internet: 80% of profit comes from 20% of products

After the Internet: 60% of profit comes from 40% of products = increased content diversity

Effects of the Long Tail & Missions Long Tail Increases Diversity of Videos

◦ Blockbuster Video: 80% of rentals are recent “blockbusters,” only carry 75 documentaries

◦ Netflix: 30% of rentals are “blockbusters” and carry 1,180 documentaries

◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000) Long Tail of Search Terms (TechMission Websites)

◦ Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors◦ 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors

Missions Implication◦ Non-Western culture voices are almost entirely on the long tail.◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion

controlled by big media from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices.

◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.

`

Source: International Bulletin of Missionary Research, January 2005. David B. Barrett & Todd M. Johnson. http://www.globalchristianity.org/resources.htm

Trend 2: Mobile Technology Will Make Every Sermon

Available to Every Person

Mobile Projections2012 number of mobile-connected devices

exceeds the number of people on earth2015:

◦1 billion smartphones shipping annually◦60% of data will be outside of Europe & North

America◦All parts of the world will have average speed > 1

Mbps◦Market share 2015: 43.8% android, 16.9% iOS, 20.3%

Windows (Android market share likely to be double that in developing countries)

2016 there will be 1.4 mobile devices per capita (10 billion)

Importance of Audio & Video In Access to the Word Globally

Source: http://www.wycliffe.org/about/statistics.aspx http://www.lausanne.org/en/blog/1779-the-70-orality-and-the-mission-of-the-church.html

Trend 3: Disruptive Technology in Education Will Transform

Christian Education

Characteristics of Disruptive EducationCost is orders of magnitude cheaper than

traditional methodsProvides alternative credentials

◦ Credit by examination with standardized tests◦ Certificates rather than degrees◦ Denominational ordinations

Typically starts at lower end and gradually improves quality ◦ Freshman & Sophomore courses

Examples of Disruptive EducationSecular Examples

◦StraighterLine.com: freshman year for $999◦Edx, Coursera, Course Hero, iTunesU, Khan

Academy, Lynda.com◦CLEP, AP Courses, ACE

Christian Examples◦Global University: largest ministry school in the

world with over 400,000 students ◦CityVision.edu◦KnowledgeElements.com◦UrbanMinistry.org

Need for Low Cost Christian Education

Only 6.7% of people globally have college degrees compared to 40% in the USA◦ Majority of Christian growth is in developing countries

where Christian leaders are lacking educationEducation (like missions) is most effective when it

taught in the students culture and language

Technology innovation will enable ubiquitous, low-cost Christian education globally

Trend 4: The Semantice Web & the Christian Social Graph will Help Connect the Global

Body of ChristFor More Info Visit: http://

www.slideshare.net/techmission/christian-social-graph-v2http://www.slideshare.net/techmission/nonprofit-social-graph

App Traffic Growing beyond Browser Traffic

Note: Includes all web (desktop and mobile)

The Need for the Semantic Web:What are the Online Megatrends?

Browser traffic

General Search

Proliferation of Closed Datasets/APIs

App Traffic

Vertical Search

Open, StandardizedMachine Readable Data

All of these trends call for more standardized APIs and linked datasets = Semantic Web

Examples of Semantic Web & Vertical Search

Christian Social Graph

Christian Social Graph

Volunteer Opportunitie

s10,000

Jobs6,000

Organizations15,000

Churches

PeopleClassifiedListing

Groups & Events

Content

Funders & Grants

TechMission’sInitial Focus

Trend 5: The “Networked Church” will Transform the

Global Church

Architecture of Catholic Church

Mainframe EraHub/Spoke ArchitectureOne HierarchyCentralizedMonolithicStrength: addressing

problems requiring centralized approach

Problems◦ The Pope is not Jesus◦ Single point of failure◦ Lack of competition

Pope

Hub/Spoke Architecture

Architecture of Protestant Church Pre-Internet

Computers & LANs Disconnected/No

Interconnection Atomized No hierarchy or

denominational hierarchy Problems

◦ The Body of Christ should not be atomized and disconnected

◦ Week in addressing problems requiring a centralized approach

Isolated Networks(denominations & churches)

Networked, Modular Church Complex organic

interconnection Uses strengths of both

centralized and distributed architectures

Modular Increased specialization

Internet ArchitectureFrom: NetDimes.org

Trend Toward Specialization:Growth of the Parachurch

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Parachurch $0 $1 $20 $162 $230 $570

Church $1 $7 $50 $108 $140 $300

1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025

(in Billions)

62%

66%

60%

Source: International Bulletin of Missionary Research, January 2005. David B. Barrett & Todd M. Johnson. http://www.globalchristianity.org/resources.htm

Modular Transformation of Computer Industry

Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

Virtually Integrated Church

LocalChurch

Sacraments

Sunday Service

Small Group

Teaching

Accountability

Modular Church

Student Groups

12 StepGroups

Accountability Partners

Meetups

ChristianLiterature

MegachurchStreaming

ChristianRadio/TV

DenominationStructures

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

LocalChurch

Sacraments

Sunday Service

Small Group

Teaching

Accountability

Modular Transformation of the Church

Potential Strengths & Weaknesses of the Networked Church

Strength Weakness

Growth in diversity Growth in deviance

Many options/connections Shallow relationships

More information More temptation

Less global poverty More domestic inequalityDecreased autocracy Decreased accountability

Viral church growth Viral cults

Megachurch network growth Wal-Mart Effect on Churches

Increased Specialization Holistic church decrease

Individual Capacity for Good Individual Capacity for Evil

5 Trends for Technology in Missions

1. The Long Tail will Turn the World of Christian Media Upside Down

2. Mobile Technology Will Make Every Sermon Available to Every Person

3. Disruptive Technology in Education Will Transform Christian Education

4. Christian Social Graph will help Connect the Global Body of Christ

5. The Networked Church will transform the global Church

Appendix

App Traffic Growing beyond Browser Traffic

Note: Includes all web (desktop and mobile)

Key Tech Trends for Missions

Western Media

Feature Phones

Pages

Self-Published Sermons

Smartphones

Audio/Video

Christian Social Graph VisionWhat if every Christian could connect with

the needs and resources to maximize their calling on earth?◦Missions: Mapping every need in the world to

Christians with resources to meet that need◦Discipleship: Mapping every Christian with

resources they need for growth◦Helping Christians meet the needs of non-

ChristiansWhy do thousands of people have this

same vision?◦It’s something that God is doing

Examples of Resources NeededChristian Social Network: $100 millionChristian Social Graph: $100 million

◦Global Church Directory: $50 million◦Global Parachurch Directory: $10 million◦Global Volunteer/Missions Directory: $10 million

Christian Wikipedia: $10 millionChristian YouTube: $10-50 millionChristian TED Talks: $10-50 million

How do you build a $100 project when you only have a few million dollars?

Examples of Semantic Web & Vertical Search

What is the Semantic Web? AKA Web 3.0

RDF: data sharing format in XML

Sparql endpoints: Christian Social Graph

Schema.org: churches, organizations, job postings, events, volunteer opportunities

Aggregators: Thousands of Christian Websitesand Applications

API Terms of Use Contracts

Semantic Web is an Initiative of World Wide Web Consortium for providing common formats for web data. It is led by Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web.

The Long Tail , Mobile & MissionsWhat if every sermon from every part of

the world could be published online?◦Most cultures globally are visual and auditory:

story telling culturesWhat if the distribution of Christian media

publishing reflected the demographics of Christians◦Paul’s Vision of Missions: Be a Jew to the Jew

and a Greek to the Greek

What if every person could hear all the sermonsglobally from their own language and culture?

App Traffic Growing beyond Browser Traffic

Note: Includes all web (desktop and mobile)