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How can Cambridge University's Centre of Governance and Human Rights ensure the sustainability of its innovative public opinion analytics platform, that leverages the ubiquity of mobile and radio in Africa to reach the least heard voices?
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Africa's Voices
Social enterprise
sustainability analysis
Andrew Lloyd, Jin Hu, Nathan Smith, Rebecca Janovich (Cambridge Judge
Business School MBA, 2014)
May 2014
Africa's Voices started as an applied research project from Cambridge University...
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• Africa’s Voices leverages radio’s ubiquity, with over 90% of Africans listening regularly in a variety of languages, and prodigious growth in mobile telephony.
• Stations ask questions and prompt debate on air, and Africa’s Voices gathers listener SMS responses and audience demographics.
• This data gives direct and immediate access to a social discussion space in which shared meanings and ideas – and their change over time - can be identified.
• Africa’s Voices uses proprietary analytical methods to derive insight from the data and provide an easy to access view of the responses.
• Africa’s Voices began at Cambridge University as an applied research project that explored optimal modalities for enabling and interpreting hard-to-reach voices in Africa in development and governance discussions.
• Challenging conventional survey-based approaches, researchers have developed new tools for interpreting public opinion as shared and contested ideas expressed in local conversational language.
• Over twoyears, with pilots in radio stations in eight countries, the project’s findings give confidence of the enterprise’s basic architecture and relevance.
Background on Africa's Voices
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Key Challenges
• Can Africa’s Voices become a viable self-sustaining social enterprise?
• What would it need to do and become to achieve it?
…but its future depends on establishing itself on more independent foundations in a challenging environment...
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Kenya is primed for economic growth which could change viable use cases in the mid-term• Pan-African GDP has increased at 4.9% annually between 2000 and 2008• Between 2005 and 2012 Kenyan GDP almost doubled from 18.739 to 34.059 billion
USD
Technology penetration in Kenya favours Africa’s Voices’ platform at this point in time:• Mobile phone usage has increased from 13.8% to 71.17% between 2005 and 2012• 78.1% of rural and 83.1% of urban Kenyans owned a radio (2013)• 93% of Kenyans surveyed reported listening to radio in the past week (2011)
The growing availability of cheap 3G technology is a factor that Africa’s Voices needs to be mindful of for future• Internet usage in Kenya increased from 3.1% in 2005 to 32.1% in 2012
Context
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Progress to date
• Project initiated mid-2012• 9 Radio Stations engaged in applied pilot across
Africa• High level business case created in November 2013• Value chain investigation undertaken• Discussions with IBM underway as potential
partner or analytics provider
…however, there is real opportunity in the radio enabled discussion space for the right enterprise
Vision
To be the primary platform that is used to engage, facilitate and understand voices within civil society throughout Sub-Saharan Africa.
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1. Develop the platform with delivery of information as aid, scoping, M&E of aid and service delivery as its initial primary purpose
2. Subsidise the non-market* research and community discussion space using the M&E and info as aid market
3. After reaching a viable size, the market research space becomes viable 4. An upfront investment of $80,000 will be required to build and pilot the platform5. Ongoing expected monthly costs of between $13,000 and $17,000 should be able to be covered
without external funding
Recommendations and Conclusions
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Mission
To bring listeners, radio stations and 3rd parties together through useable technology, mutually beneficial relationships and innovative insight, using advanced analytic capabilities developed in Cambridge to interpret data for both practical and pure research purposes.
Values
• To encourage, facilitate and amplify a breadth of voices in public discussion
• To support meaningful social change through information• To analyse real social discussions to deliver public opinion
insight• To innovate through technology and robust analytics • To deliver knowledge products faster than comparable
approaches• To differentiate from conventional polling enterprises
Platform
AV
Radio
Buyers
Current
* Market research is defined as corporate-led marketing mix research for profit
AV could be used to deliver aid into hard to reach areas and measure its effectiveness…
5Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Potential for AV as an aid delivery platform Disaster Relief
Potential Collaborator Analysis
Delivery of information as aid via sponsored shows is not a new idea. However, the AV platform could facilitate it through:• A user interface that allows specific radio stations
to be identified and targeted quickly• A detailed background on the socio demographic
information for each station• The speed which programmes can be set up
• Cross location comparisons• Messaging that can be changed over time to fit
feedback or demographic• Providing a platform for sharing of community
knowledge about the issue and for public discussion thereon
• Detailed reporting that will be available for key stakeholders from the platform
Legend1. Geospatial Location2. SMS data collection3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. Information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence
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Farm Radio International
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Text to Change
Farm Radio International is a platform that disseminates farming information via radio partners throughout Africa in addition to providing a platform for sharing community farming information.
Text to Change is a mobile phone platform that facilitates the sending and receipt of information via telephony between respondents and partners of Text to Change like UNICEF.
Following natural disasters such as the hurricane that hit the Philippines, radio is often the only communication mechanism still running. Rapid response using interactive radio has been demonstrated to be highly effective in this environment.
AV
…it can also be used to measure and evaluate wider aid delivery…
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High Level Financials
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Example M&E Partnership Process
Define Initial Scope
Formative Research
Aid Delivery
Evaluation
Corroboration
Evaluation
Measure Effectiveness
1. Aid Spend in Kenya: $2.5bn2. M&E % of Project: 5%3. Calculated M&E Spend in
Kenya: $125m4. Total running cost of AV in first
year in Kenya after startup: $84k5. % of total M&E spend to fund
AV: 0.06%
Potential for AV platform within M&E Benchmarking
The potential in the scoping and M&E space for the AV platform is significant:• NGOs and aid agencies will have broad near instant
access to ask questions• Trends, benchmarking and analytics will facilitate
decision making• Quantitative and qualitative data will allow for a
richer feedback mechanism
• Multiple radio stations can be engaged at the same time with the same question
• Effectiveness can be demonstrated through the analytics and trend analysis
• Performance Reporting will be available for key stakeholders from the platform demonstrating engagement
Aid Agency
Legend1. Geospatial Location2. No-Cost SMS3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. SMS information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence
…this is an area that aid agencies and service delivery firms have found challenging…
7Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Potential Collaborator Analysis
Result, effectiveness or impact tracking is something that NGOs struggle with:• Often M&E budgets are squeezed too
tight• M&E is often considered as an
afterthought• Little continuous improvement using
M&E
NGOs Bilateral Agencies Multilateral agencies
Multilateral agencies, such as the World Bank and UNESCO, assign KPIs to their projects:• Measuring these KPIs has been difficult
for the program teams• P4R has highlighted the debate on
quantifiable feedback metrics• Metrics are driving spend
Bilateral aid agencies find M&E challenging and engage 3rd parties to undertake the evaluation and analysis of projects:• Can be anywhere from 10 to 20 days of
time• Used to demonstrate external evaluation
to governments
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Text to Change
Text to Change is a mobile phone platform that facilitates the sending and receipt of information via telephony between respondents and partners of Text to Change like UNICEF.
GeoPoll is a mobile platform that allows customers to survey their 110 million respondents via SMS, the web, or voice.
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GeoPoll
…and there are specific examples where AV would have been beneficial in this space
8Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
UNESCO Challenges InfoAsAidChallenges
• The reliability of data obtained through traditional surveys• The ability to measure intangible benefits• The institutionalised methodology that doesn't directly engage
the bottom of the pyramid• Research fatigue on the part of the responders• The breadth of surveys over sub-Saharan Africa as a whole
• Reliable and robust methodology that underpins the analysis• The ability to measure intangible benefits of aid delivery• Engage recipients at the bottom of the pyramid in a free and open
space• Needs to be applicable to either a single small scale site or on a
pan-country scale as required• Engagement to make a difference to overcome the research
fatigue• Speed of implementation to be able to react to demands
• Implementation difficulties during both World Vision Kenya and Save the Children projects
• Technology issues with FrontlineSMS not already recording the SMS
• Measuring the benefits of the project was difficult due to the lack of analysable data
• Training of staff on the ground was very time consuming• Very tight timescales• Rapid scoping of environments on the ground• The limited data that was collected was not analysed and used in
either a monitoring or evaluation context
• Ability to quickly roll out the technology• Easy to use and understand with limited ongoing training• Metrics available without the user being present• Measurement of results based on reliable and robust
methodology
InfoAsAidRequirements
UNESCO Requirements
Miranda Eeles, Project Manager - InfoAsAidJaco Du Toit, Advisor for communications and
infortmation - UNESCO
Building on this foundation, other areas of interest can be targeted and insight gained from the platform…
9
High Level Financials
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Example ResearchPartnership Process
Potential for AV as a Research and Engagement platform Benchmarking
From a community engagement standpoint, the platform delivers the following benefits:• Open but optionally anonymous discussion
space• Allows facilitators information on what other
communities are doing• Socio demographic information will allow for
targeted engagement
As annon-market research platform, AV will give several benefits over standard methods:• The feedback and analytics should be near instant• Using radio and SMS, data can be collected from
hard to reach places using the web• The ability to rapidly iterate hypotheses should be
significantly increased
TheoryResearch
designHypothesis
Measure and collect data
Data Analysis
Findings
AV
1. Estimated survey spend per question per response: $1 - $3
2. Estimated travel cost: 25%-40%3. Travel savings by using AV:
$0.25 – $1.24. Number of question or
responses required to fund AV: 9,300 a month
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Jana
…with research and community engagement being important for a platform with social impact
10Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Potential Collaborator Analysis
Research Community Engagement
Legend1. Geospatial Location2. SMS data collection3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. Information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence
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Trac FM
• Kenya has been a popular location for development studies in Africa. There is fierce competition in the research space, yet getting reliable data is challenging
• Non-market research actors still employ traditional methodologies. They are time consuming and not always cost effective. However there is a growing trend towards innovative technology use in this space
• Real time data gathering and analysis are difficult to achieve
• Citizen engagement is important for empowering policy discussions in the region. However, it has been challenging to get citizens heard or to participate in public discussions
• Unlike the other three areas there will be no buyer for this use case. The community would stimulate the discussion as opposed to third parties. A long code would be used
• Open community discourse is a difficult topic and needs to be handled with care
Jana is a mobile web-based application that provides customers with a database of respondents willing to answer surveys in exchange for airtime credits
Trac FM is a platform that uses radio broadcasts to promote public engagement while also capturing opinions from participants via SMS
Once significant scale has been achieved, the market research space can be targeted…
11
High Level Financials
Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Example Market Research Partnership Process
Potential for AV as a Market Research platform Benchmarking
Market research has historically focused on the creation of representative panels to garner views and opinions. However, AV could be used to potentially add value in this space through:• Allowing self-selecting panels to voice their
opinions and demonstrate engagement• Being able to understand and interpret the rationale
behind views
• Cross location comparisons• Demographics and geographies that can be
targeted through identifying stations• A wide reach to different areas that are not
currently serviced by market research firms• An ability to generate a sentiment index in a
similar way to that of social media
1. Assuming $0.5 per response2. Total running cost of AV in
Kenya after startup: $84k3. Number of responses per day
required to fund AV: 6004. To get to this
potential, significant critical mass would need to be reached
Define objective &
problem
Determine research design
Design Research
Instrument
Sampling & Data
Collection
Analyse Data
Visualise results
AV
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Jana
…care should be taken however to ensure the platform is still considered to be for social impact and change
12Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Potential Collaborator Analysis
Catering to MNCs could conflict with the core values of AV:• MNCs are primarily interested in profits
and not with social impact• If listeners perceive conflict of interest
there could be listener disengagement
Corporate Responsibility Focus Ethical Questions
Market research is only one part of AV’s core activities:• AV needs to continue to both passively
monitor AND facilitate public discourse• How do you incentivize people if purely
market research?
Thorny ethical challenges are likely to arise:• Should information collected to facilitate
social change be monetized?• What can legitimately be done with this
information?• An expectation of privacy?
Legend1. Geospatial Location2. SMS data collection3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. Information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence
GeoPoll is a mobile platform that allows their customers to survey respondents via SMS, the web, or voice.
Jana is a mobile web-based application that provides customers with a database of respondents willing to answer surveys in exchange for airtime credits
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GeoPoll
The success or failure of Africa's Voices will be in part determined by two key drivers…
13Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Critical Success Drivers and Barriers
In this quadrant, the uptake by radio stations will not be met by
sufficient demand from the buyers. This will cause significant funding
issues.
In this rapid growth
quadrant, significant investment in
people will be required to keep
pace with demand. Being able to
react quickly to demands by both
radio stations and buyers will be
key.
Although uptake in this quadrant is
slow, it is even between stations
and buyers. This will result in
slow but sustainable growth.
Sufficient uptake will be required
to break even however.
In this quadrant, the uptake by
radio stations will be slow. This
will mean that buyers do not have
the breadth of reach required and
so will not use the platform to its
full potential
Potential Barriers to success:• Legislation covering data residency • Branding• Communication of USP• Vernacular language translation• University of Cambridge's participation and role
in the enterprise• Demonstration of capability• response rates to generated content
Enablers:
• Analytics capability• Internet proliferation in radio stations• Incentivisation of radio stations• Staffing of the enterprise
LOW - Uptake of Platform by the buyers - HIGH
LO
W -
Up
take
of
Pla
tfo
rm b
y t
he
radio
stn
s-
HIG
H
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Fast Growth
Moderate Growth
…and getting to a successfulposition will not be straightforward…
14Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
AV Roadmap and Timeline
Month 1 - 3 Month 4-5 Month 6 Month 7
Develop wire frame and data
model
Proof of concept
development
Engage, map and subscribe radio stations to the platform
Platformlaunched
Three applied pilots
conducted
First commercial pilot
All community radio stations
engaged
Go / No Go Decision to take platform
forward
Analysis of market and current buyer uptake to determine if and where to expand, in which
order
Uptake of Platform by the radio stnsis critical during this period
Uptake of Platform by the buyersis critical during this period
Month 8
Begin engagement of radio stations in 2nd country
Month 9-12
Follow staged on-boarding of radio
stations in 2nd country
Year 2
Leveraging lessons learned and reputational
momentum, onboard next 3 countries
An acute understanding of the M&E market and which countries hold the most value for buyers is critical during this period
12 MonthBurn Rate Analysis
Build PeriodGo/No Go Decision
Minimum Viable Product
Applied Pilot period and Case Study DevelopmentBuild Commenced
Following Go Decision, Enterprise use / revenue generation starts
US$
US$
…and does not come without significant risks and uncertainties…
15Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Mitigation Measures
Risks and uncertainties
Unknown leadership and structure slows development
Engagement of radio stations more
difficult than expected
Envelopment by existing platforms
orNewCo
Cost base significantly higher
than expected
Willingness to pay lower than expected
for buyers
Funding not available to cover
build costs
Cambridge University spin out
difficulties
Listeners cease to engage with
directed radio shows
Turmoil causes development to no longer be viable
3G uptake faster than expected
Legislation changes mean storing SMS data more difficult
Other African countries too
dissimilar
Upfront engagement of radio stations and audiences to demonstrate potential and
prevent envelopmentStrong team in place from
very beginning
Engage with a small number of key partners before build to ensure funding and continued
success
Ensure capability for social media and internet space is designed in from the start
Engage with the university to demonstrate the value of
AV as a standalone enterprise
…but the benefits of being able to target, listen and engage this space are clear to see
16Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
Thank you, questions?
Appendices Removed from this version
17Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap AppendixAppendix
Disclaimer
18Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix
“This work has been undertaken as part of a student educational project and the material should be viewed in this context. The work does not constitute professional advice and no warranties are made regarding the information presented. The Authors, Cambridge Judge Business School and its Faculty do not accept any liability for the consequences of any action taken a result of the work or any recommendations made or inferred.”
Appendix
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