Slides: Can Pacific NorthWest LNG pass Canada's climate test?

Pacific NorthWest LNGCan one of Canada’s largest carbon polluters pass the climate test?

Matt Horne and Erin Flanagan

Pembina Institute

May 2, 2016

2 Photo by Brian Huntington

Why does the project matter?

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• As proposed, PNW LNG (including its associated upstream activities) would be among the largest carbon polluters in Canada.

Source: CEAA draft report and Canada’s facility level GHG inventory

A climate test for PNW LNG

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• The federal government should ask two questions:1. Is B.C. on track to meet its climate targets?2. Is carbon pollution from the project being minimized?

• The project should not proceed if the answer to either question is no.

• The answer to both questions is currently no.

Is B.C. on track to meet its climate targets?

No.

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B.C.’s emissions projected to rise

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• B.C. could get back on track, but has not implemented the Climate Leadership Team recommendations

Source: BC Climate Leadership Team Recommendations, 2015

Proposed LNG exceeds B.C. target

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• Carbon pollution from three leading LNG proposals could be reduced by more than 50% under the Climate Leadership Team recommendations.

Source: Environmental Assessment documentation and Pembina calculations

Relevant CLT recommendations

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Recommendations to B.C. government Implemented?

Increase the carbon tax by $10/tonne/year starting in 2018 (announce in 2016)

No

Expand carbon tax coverage in 2021 No

Develop mechanisms to protect emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors

No

Set a goal of reducing methane by 40% within 5 years backed by regulations and multi-stakeholder process

No, but premier committed to align with Alberta at GLOBE conference

Direct BC Hydro to develop an electrification strategy for LNG and upstream gas

No

Is the carbon pollution from Pacific NorthWest LNG being minimized?

No.

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Unnecessarily high emissions

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• There are opportunities at the LNG terminal and upstream to reduce carbon pollution.

LNG terminal Upstream gas

More efficient drives for liquefaction Methane controls

Renewable energy for auxiliary power Electrification

Electric drives Carbon capture (or low-carbon gas)

Unnecessarily high emissions

11 Source: CEAA reports and Pembina calculations using B.C. shale gas scenario tool

Tools to limit project emissions

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• The federal government has four options to limit carbon pollution from the project:1. Rejecting the project2. Setting environmental conditions3. Implementing new federal climate policy (e.g.

methane regulations)4. Encouraging B.C. to implement the Climate

Leadership Team recommendations

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What happens with the LNG?Does it displace coal? Or gas or renewables?Does it matter?

Photo by Torbein Rønning on Flickr

The argument that LNG will displace coal is flawed:

LNG is not a climate solution

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Source: World Energy Outlook, 2015

• The world needs less gas if we’re going to avoid dangerous climate change.

• Each country is responsible for meeting their own climate targets.

Summary

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• Pacific NorthWest LNG (and its associated upstream activities) would be among the largest carbon polluters in Canada.

• As proposed, the project should not be approved because: The project does not fit within a plan for B.C. to meet its targets. The project’s emissions are much higher than necessary.

• For B.C. to have a plan to meet its climate targets, the provincial government will need to implement the Climate Leadership Team recommendations.

• The federal government can also use the regulatory process and federal policy to limit emissions from the project.

• Accounting for the emissions in Asia from LNG exports would not change these conclusions.

Thank you

Matt Hornephone: 778.235.1476 email: matth@pembina.org twitter: @HorneMatt