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Mekong ARCC – Final Workshop – Livestock Study: A presentation from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) > Further information: www.icem.com.au This presentation for the Mekong ARCC project was given by ICEM at the Final Workshop in Bangkok – held in March 2013. The presentation indicates how climate change will exacerbate challenges for livestock in the LMB, increasing nutritional problems, reducing value and increasing disease risk in many areas. In general, ‘local’ breeds have greater internal adaptive capacity to climate change. However, temperature increases will increase costs of production and alter disease risks for all livestock systems. Wild species in the LMB are also threatened by changes in bovine production practices. Increases in grazing of protected areas will multiply the risk of disease transmission and the threat of hunting.The presentation provides adaptation strategies for livestock including; improving animal nutrition among smallholder low input systems, increasing disease resilience and minimising disease challenges, and increasing smallholder access to and information on, input, service and product markets. > Read more about Mekong ARCC on the ICEM website www.icem.com.au
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Livestock 28 March 2013 Thomas Weaver
Presentation structure
• Livestock context in livelihoods
• Methodology of
assessment • Baseline
– Identification of systems – Locations – Tolerances
• Vulnerability assessment
• Adaptation Strategies • Conclusions
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Livelihood linkages
Livestock Systems
+ Manure + Draught (land preparation, marketing) + Pest control - Run off
+/- Feed (grain, forages, crop residues, fallow grazing, Agro-industrial byproducts) - Mycotoxins - Mechanisation
+ Feed (protein supplements) + Waste management (production and processing)
+ Feed (production and processing waste) - Run off
+/- Manure - Disease - Destructive grazing/browsing - Shifting cultivation - Run off
+/- Feed (forages, grazing) + Traditional animal health measures
Cropping Systems
Natural Systems/Protected
Areas
Fisheries
3
Socio-economic factors affecting livestock
4
Livelihoods, poverty and vulnerability and food security
• Increasing consumption • Price signals/setting power • Commercialisation of
production • Safety and quality
assurance
Access to land for grazing and forage cultivation, land tenure
Livestock policy environment
• Local trade patterns, crossborder trade, regional and international competition
• Commodity prices
Demographic changes
LIVESTOCK BASELINE
5
System selection considerations
Rationale for selection of systems: Contribution to: • LMB livestock numbers (total, LU, number of
households raising, stock densities) • Local/national economies • Livelihoods and food security • Projected consumption and production • Global genetic diversity (indigenous breeds; wild
species)
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Large ruminants (bovins) • Cattle and buffaloes: smallholder extensive
(cattle/buffalo ‘keeping’) Pigs • Small to medium commercial • Smallholder low-input
Poultry • Scavenging chicken • Small commercial chicken (broiler, layer) • Field running layer ducks
Identified Systems
Cattle Buffalo
Bovine distribution
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Pigs Chickens
Monogastric distribution
• Bovines, pigs and poultry are ubiquitous basin-wide, in varying production systems
• Small and medium commercial units are – Likely to increase in number and production volume – Competition from exporters to increase – Generally located in low lying areas
• Smallholder systems – Numerically dominant, in terms of farms and stock numbers – High proportion of poor and vulnerable groups among low-input producers
• Smallholders typically operate diversified, mixed farming and livelihood systems
• Stock density – High per agricultural land/population in remote locations, important for
poverty and vulnerability – Lower per population area in low lying areas
10
Results of the baseline
Livestock system tolerances
• Temperature: Higher than livestock thermoneutral zone = feed intake, growth – Animal health risks: pathogen viability/ proliferation, vectors,
fomites, shifting disease patterns
• Rainfall: – Animal health: pathogen viability/proliferation, vectors, fomites
• Extreme events: – Direct losses – Indirect impacts: feed availability disease transmission; markets
11
LMB indigenous breeds
• Important genetic resources • Potential advantages in climate change
stressed systems Examples: • Pigs: Mong Cai, Ban, Moo Chid • Poultry: Ri, Ac, Dong Cao, Luong Phuong, Thai fighting cock
Wild species
• Ruminants – Banteng (Mondulkiri) – Gaur – Saola – Kouprey (?) – Eld’s Deer (Mondulkiri)
• Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) • Wild poultry
(elements of, and affected by, wider farming systems)
Key issues for livestock systems to consider in the face of climate changes
14
Baseline summary
Nutrition
Markets
Animal Health
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
15
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System
• Identification • Location • Tolerances
Threat
• Climate change threats
• Interpretation for livestock systems
Impact
• Exposure to threat
• Sensitivity to threat
Adaptive capacity
• Internal • External
Vulnerability Adaptation strategies
• Identification of vulnerable systems
• Reducing exposure / sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity
Process
Baseline Vulnerability assessment Adaptation strategies
Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity: internal (biological) and external (e.g. management practices, accessibility/quality of services, policy environment).
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Kien Giang: example of vulnerability assessment process
Small commercial pig
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Threat identification and interpretation Threat identification: Temp. increase
Interpretation of threat:
3C increase in Tmax average with highs predicted to reach 42C Increase average max daily T in dry season to above 30C
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Impact level
• Exposure: Significant increases in temperature
• Sensitivity: Improved breeds less resilient, low margins heightened stress levels, higher costs of production
• Impact level: Reduced margins/competitiveness: increased costs of production
20
Adaptation capacity and vulnerability level
• Adaptation capacity: Internal capacity of breeds is relatively low, but higher than purebreds.
External capacity limited by availability and quality of services and available capital to invest in small landless operations.
Vulnerability level: 21
Livestock systems vulnerability
Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability
Smallholder cattle/buffalo
Low Low Medium
Dairy/large commercial
Very high High High
Small commercial pig
High Medium High
Smallholder low input pig
Low Low Medium
Small commercial chicken
Very high Low Very high
Scavenging chicken
Low Low Medium
Field running layer duck
Very low Low Low 22
Commercial
23
Higher stress systems: Various scales Wealthier households Higher vulnerability to increase T: increased costs of production Higher vulnerability to increased disease risk, and responses due to investment
Low input, low productivity systems: Poorer households Low vulnerability to T increase Higher vulnerability to increased disease risk, loss of coping mechanism
Pigs
Low input
Low input systems: Generally poorer households Lower vulnerability to T increase Part of broad livelihood portfolio, often associated with vulnerable groups
Small commercial
Higher stress systems: Relatively wealthier households, higher investment Higher vulnerability to increase T: increased costs of production
24
Chicken
Low input
Low input systems
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Low stress systems: poorer households Seasonal low nutritional levels, reducing value, increasing disease risk. In very high T periods reduced ability to work, negative effects on reproduction
Bovines
Wild species vulnerability
Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability
Banteng (esp. Mondul Kiri)
High Very low Very high*
Eld’s Deer (esp. Mondul Kiri)
High Very low Very high*
Sus Scrofa Low Very low High
Wild Poultry Medium Very low High
*Assuming greater human and domestic stock incursion into habitats disease risks, hunting etc
26
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Hotspots 27
Guiding priorities
• Nutritional levels • Disease risk • Housing • Production planning and
offtake • Access to markets
28
Closely interrelated, a multifaceted approach will be required Prioritization and phasing requires assessment in the local context
Increase internal adaptive capacity
• Reduce undernourishment by increasing the quality and quantity of feed production, storage and the nutritional balance of diets. – Improve use of current resources e.g.
crop residues, wild forages – Increase forage cultivation – Technology transfer e.g. seed,
cultivation practices, preservation
• Reduce grazing pressure on protected areas, reducing contact and risk of disease/hunting
Animal Nutrition
29 Key systems: smallholder bovines, low input pigs Key hotspots: Mondulkiri, Khammouan
Disease risk reduction
Increase adaptive capacity (internal and external) • Increase internal resistance to disease
– Increase nutritional status and body condition – Increase use of vaccinations
• Reduce disease challenges
– Improve biosecurity
• EcoHealth/OneHealth approaches – Animal health in relation to social, environmental
and human health considerations
• Key systems: All systems • Key hotspots: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai
30
Housing
Reduce exposure of sensitive systems
• Improve housing location and design to
maximise natural ventilating effects
• Key systems: small commercial pig and poultry
• Key hotspots: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai
31
Production planning and offtake
Reduce exposure and sensitivity, increase internal adaptive capacity • Improve production planning
– Reproduction management in breeder herds/flocks e.g. improve recognition of oestrus, reduce inbreeding, consider early weaning.
32
• Increase offtake rates, where beneficial: – Controlled destocking/reducing stock density to reduce pressure on
stock, land and/or nucleus herd/flock – Flood and drought prone areas will benefit most
• Key systems: low input cattle, pig and poultry systems • Key hotspots: Gia Lai, Mondulkiri, Khammouan
Access to markets
• Increase access to input and output markets: to reduce input costs (costs) and increase prices received (incomes) i.e. increasing profits.
• Key systems: Livestock
producers in remote areas • Key hotspots: Mondulkiri,
Khammouan, Gia Lai
33
Increase adaptive capacity, reduce sensitivity
CONCLUDING STATEMENTS
34
• Low-input systems ‘local’ breeds: greater internal adaptive capacity to climate change but lower external adaptive capacity.
– Climate change will exacerbate nutritional problems reducing value and increasing disease risk in many areas
• Small/medium ‘commercial’ systems raising higher performance breeds under greater stress: lower internal adaptive capacity but typically greater external capacity to adapt to climate changes.
– Temperature increases will increase costs of production
• Climate change will alter disease risks for all livestock systems; in concert with other developments disease risk is likely to increase.
• Wild species in the LMB most threatened by changes in bovine production practices, increases in grazing of protected areas will increase the risk of disease transmission and the threat of hunting
Summary conclusions
35
Basin Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Livestock: Improve animal nutrition among
smallholder low input systems, particularly bovines
36
Nutrition
Markets
Animal Health
Reduce disease risks for all livestock systems by increasing disease resilience and minimising disease challenges
Increase smallholder access to
and information on input, service and product markets
Priorities
THANK YOU
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