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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for natural and agricultural systems Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au September 2012 Hanoi 1a Slide 2 Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods 2 ICEM, 2012 Slide 3 Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum 3 ICEM, 2012 Slide 4 4 Slide 5 Climate change shifts Regular climate 1.Geographic shifts change in area of suitability 2.Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) change in (i) location and (ii) elevation 3.Seasonal shifts change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patterns Extreme events 4.Extreme event shifts Micro eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands Macro eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall 5 Slide 6 Geographic shift 6 ICEM, 2012 Slide 7 Identifying climate change hot spots i.e. highly vulnerable areas High exposure: significant climate change relative to base conditions exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions High sensitivity: limited temperature and moisture tolerance range degraded and/or under acute pressure severely restricted geographic range rare or threatened Low adaptive capacity Poor connectivity Low diversity and tolerances Homogenous systems 7 Slide 8 8 Climate change hot spot - rainfall Slide 9 9 Climate change hot spot - Temperature Slide 10 Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots Slide 11 Lowland rice 11 Slide 12 upland rice 12 Slide 13 rubber 13 Slide 14 Coffee (coffea canephora) 14 Slide 15 cassava 15 Slide 16 Maize 16 Slide 17 17 Slide 18 18 Slide 19 Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances Slide 20 Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances Slide 21 Trends in commercial crops with climate change Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation. Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica). Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas. Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required. Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation 21 Slide 22 Rice cultivation and extreme flooding Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta. Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones. Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice. 22 Rice Slide 23 Rice cultivation and sea level rise A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta. Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season. The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible. Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects. 23 Rice Slide 24 Thank you Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au www.icem.com.au 24