The Trend Commandments (July 2014)

The Trend

Commandments

squared

Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning | Instagram: @jengrsnap

David Yeend, VP/Planning Director | Twitter: @davidyeend

What isn’t a trend?

THINGS THAT ARE COOL, “TRENDY” OR HIPI

III

II

IV

A TRENDING TOPIC ON SOCIAL MEDIA

ESOTERIC FACTOIDS THAT MAKE YOU SOUND REALLY SMART

AN OBSERVATION MADE AT ONE DISCRETE MOMENTIN TIME

trend noun2Trend (n.) \‘trend\

A general direction of change; a way of behaving, proceeding, etc., that is developing and becoming more common

To show a tendency; a prevailing inclination or line of development

Merriam-Webster “Trend” 2014.

SOME MORESTELLAR

PREDICTIONSFROM THE

RECENT PAST

“The internet in 1996 will

catastrophically collapse.” - Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet,

3com founder, in 1995

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

SOME MORESTELLAR

PREDICTIONSFROM THE

RECENT PAST

“'Smellyvision' ... chemicals

into our TVs so we can enjoy

the aromas." - The People newspaper, London, in 2000

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

SOME MORESTELLAR

PREDICTIONSFROM THE

RECENT PAST

“There’s no chance that the

iPhone is going to get any

significant market share.” - Steve Ballmer, in 2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

TREND-WATCHING IS ONLY

AS USEFUL AS YOUR WILLINGNESS

TO BE ACCOUNTABLE TO IT.

INGREDIENTS

FOR TREND-WATCHINGSUCCESS1 liberal helping of PATIENCE

3 cups of ADAPTABILITY

4 spoonfuls of INSIGHT

Dash of HUMILITY

And above all, the passage of TIME

Explain(why?)What are the reasons this pattern is occurring? How does it impact our business?

Should we adapt to it? How?

III

Observe(what?)

Start with an observation.

Or, better yet, a

business question.

I Evaluate(how?)

Do data points converge?

Do we see a consistent pattern over time?

Can we test our theory?

II

How Thou Shalt Trend Watch:-

Trend Watching Toolkit-

Observe(what?)

Start with an observation.

Or, better yet, a business question.

I • ONE-TIME SURVEYS• SHOPPER DATA• TREND REPORTS W/O CONTEXT• INDUSTRY REVIEWS• SOCIAL CONTENT • IN-STORE OBSERVATION• “SOME BLOGGER IN BROOKLYN”

Trend Watching Toolkit-

Do data points converge?

Do we see a consistent pattern over time?

Can we test our theory?

Evaluate(how?)

II• TRACKERS• SYNDICATED DATA (SIMMONS, MRI, &c.)• REPEATED SURVEYS• SECONDARY REPORTS WITH CONTEXT• YOY BUSINESS DATA (SALES, TRAFFIC,

CRM, MERCHANT INFO)• SOCIAL LISTENING

Qualitative for insight, quantitative for scale.

Trend Watching Toolkit-

What are the reasons this pattern is occurring?

How does it impact our business?

Should we adapt to it? How?

Explain(why?)

III

• EXPLORATORY QUAL• CROSS-FUNCTIONAL BRAINSTORMS• TEST INITIATIVES• DATA TRIANGULATION

Let’s Practice

I

ObserveII

EvaluateIII

Explain

“I didn’t see many kids in the store last weekend. What’s up with that?”

- Your CEO

“Our product mix is less appealing to kids / parents?”

2010 2011 2012 2013

40%

47%

Kids In The HH

“Our campaign message appeals to kids / parents less?”

“Our store experience is off-putting to shop with children?”

(“Sure, but overall sales are up! So what are we complaining about?”)

SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013

I

ObserveII

EvaluateIII

Explain

“Mobile commerce isdriving eCommerce.”

- Industry Report

“Tablet sales are putting more mCom devices in the world?”

“More eCom sites are becoming mobile-friendly?”

“People are getting more comfortable with mCom security?”

SOURCE: eMarketer 2014

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

$13.57

$24.78

$41.68

$56.72

$75.00

$96.81

$113.57

7.0% 11.0% 16.0% 19.0% 22.0% 25.0% 17.3%

US Retail mCommerce Sales, 2011- 2017billions, and % of retail eCommerce sales

I

ObserveII

EvaluateIII

Explain

“I heard at some conference that digital

coupons are the future of retail.”

“Digital targeting makes offers more relevant than ever?”

“Real-time optimization makes digital perform better on the fly?”

“Postal workers are sabotaging us?”

2010 2011 2012 20130.2

0.26

Via Web/Email

0.23

2010 2011 2012 20130.54

0.61

Via Mail

0.575

*SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 ... “Mail” includes

newspaper inserts, magazine inserts, and all “DM”

Observe(what?)

I

Explain(why?)

III

Evaluate(how?)

II

How To Act On Trends(After all .... a trend is only as valuable as the action that follows it.)

Dedicate team and time to trend-watching

Proactively set aside budget to evaluate and optimize

Don’t be afraid to change course

Make it an ongoing priority

Educate internal stakeholders (and pick their brains)

Learn from your shopper data and your merchants

Rinse and repeat (a virtuous cycle)

So...What Are The Trend Commandments?

Thou shalt not point to a cool thing and call it a trend.

Thou shalt not spot “trends” in one moment alone.

Thou shalt have the patience to observe and evaluate how a trend

develops.

Thou shalt not proclaim a trend without considering its

implications.

Thou shalt build organizational support and understanding.

Thou shalt use thy data and shoppers to identify trends

proactively.

Thou shalt be flexible enough to adapt to trends.

Thou shalt not get discouraged if a trend doesn’t

pan out as expected.

Thou shalt make trend-watching an ongoing habit.

Thou shalt act on the trends that impact your business.

Thank You.

squared

www.22squared.com

@22squared

Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning

Instagram: @jengrsnap

David Yeend, VP/Planning Director

Twitter: @davidyeend