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PotashCorp.com
Q4 2015 Conference CallJanuary 28, 2016
Forward-looking Statements
Slide #2
Slide#3
Performance
Fourth-Quarter and 2015 Highlights
• Earnings of $0.24 per share1; full-year total of $1.52 per share
• Annual cash provided by operating activities of $2.3 billion
• Indefinite suspension of Picadilly, New Brunswick potash operation in January 2016
• Market value of investments approximately $3.5 billion, or $4 per PotashCorp share2
• Quarterly dividend reduced by 34 percent to $0.25 per share
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on January 27, 2016
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #4
Lower Potash Earnings and Weaker Nitrogen Prices Had the Biggest Impact
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison
Q4 2014
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q4 2015
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
$746
$386-$262
-$92 -$6
Gross Margin - US$ Millions
Potash• Lower volumes and realizations in both North America
and offshore due to challenging market conditions
• Higher per-tonne costs due to Penobsquis closure and maintenance shutdowns deferred from Q3
Nitrogen• Weaker realizations primarily driven by lower energy
prices and increased supply in key producing regions
• Lower natural gas prices improved costs
Phosphate• Lower DAP and MAP prices offset by higher liquid
fertilizer prices
• Sales volumes and costs per-tonne relatively in line
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #5
Lower Nitrogen Prices and North American Potash Volumes
2015 Full-Year Gross Margin Comparison
2014 Potash Nitrogen Phosphate 20150
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000$2,647
$2,269-$113
-$304
+$39
Gross Margin - US$ Millions
Potash• Lower volumes and weaker realizations due to
challenging market conditions
• Positive impact of a weaker Canadian dollar primarily offset by increased shutdown weeks
Nitrogen• Weaker realizations primarily driven by lower energy
prices and increased supply in key producing regions
• Improved costs primarily due to lower natural gas prices
Phosphate• Higher realizations for liquid fertilizers offset weaker
DAP/MAP prices
• Lower sales volumes primarily due to the absence of the Suwannee River chemical plant
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #6
China India Other Asia
Latin America
North America
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015E 2016F*
Demand Expected to Remain at Historically High Levels
Potash Market Outlook
Source: CRU, Katana India, Potafertz, PotashCorp, TFI
Slide #7
Highlights (2016F)
China: 13.5 – 14.5mmt • Elevated inventories to begin the year expected to reduce shipments
India: 4.2 – 4.7mmt• Expect modest demand growth with a normalized monsoon
Other Asia: 8.5 – 8.8mmt • Supportive crop economics and agronomic need expected to support
demand
Latin America: 10.8 – 11.3mmt• Favorable crop economics to keep demand at elevated levels despite
credit availability and currency headwinds
North America: 9.2 – 9.7mmt• Low dealer inventories and large nutrient requirements anticipated
to support an increase in shipments
Potash Shipments (million tonnes)
* As at January 28, 2016; represents midpoint of guidance range
Slide#8
Outlook
2016 Guidance*
Full Year
• Earnings per share: $0.90-$1.20
• Potash sales volumes: 8.3-9.1 million tonnes
• Potash gross margin: $0.8-$1.1B
• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $0.7-$0.9B
• Capital expenditures**: $0.8-$0.9B
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #9
* Guidance as at January 28, 2016** Does not include capitalized interest
2016 Guidance*
Full Year
• Effective tax rate: 25-27 percent
• Provincial mining and other taxes**: 22-24 percent of total potash gross margin
• Selling and administrative expenses: $240-$250M
• Finance costs: $210-$220M
• Income from offshore equity investments***: $120-$140M
• Annual FX Assumption: CDN$1.38 per US$
• Annual EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS
* Guidance as at January 28, 2016 ** As a percentage of potash gross margin*** Represents share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #10
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