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Systems Thinkingfor Water Sustainability:
Approaches for aClimate-Changed World
Kathy Freas, Ph. D.
One Water Leadership Summit 24 September 2013
3
This Afternoon
• A few thoughts about systems
• How systems approaches are applicable to water sustainability and climate change
• A couple of examples of how systems approaches are being applied to enhance water and other resources sustainability in the face of climate change
4
If you manage resources for sustainability, you manage a system
How are systems thinking and water sustainability linked?
ASCE: Civil Engineers in Sustainable Development:
—Promote multidisciplinary, whole system, integrated and multi-objective goals in all phases of project planning, design, construction, operations, and decommissioning.
13
Why is a systems approach so important now?
Climate change increases uncertainty,
reduces resilience, and threatens sustainability for virtually all systems
Test and monitor
Reassess results and changing
conditions
Identify components of the system
ID how they are inter-related
ID how they are currently affected by
climate
2ID plausible
futures
Determine how climate is projected to change
for the system
Use best practices and tools
3
ID how climate
change will affect
climate-sensitive system
components and
interactions
4
Identify adaptation
options, develop
portfolios, prioritize
“Implement adaptation
options”
5 6
A Systems Approach for Water Sustainability in the Face of Climate
Identify the scale of
system in question
Frame the sustainability
challenge and goals
Include stakeholders
1
How do we do systems planning in the face of a changing climate?
16
Systems Planning EnhancesWater Sustainability in a Climate-Changed World
• Climate Change and Population Growth Effects on NYC Sewer and Wastewater SystemsNYCDEP
• Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand StudyUS Bureau of Reclamation
17
Scope of the StudyNYCDEP Population and Climate Change
• Consistent with NYC’s integrated climate change and sustainability planning
• Define baseline and future conditions
• Analyze vulnerability, initially for• Hunts Point WWTP• Flushing Bay Watershed
• Identify and assess adaptation options
• Work with City and stakeholders to develop citywide framework for adaptation
Two Future Climate Change Scenarios
• Central Estimate: midpoint of future climate projections based on City 2009 report
• Precautionary Estimate: a plausible, yet rare estimate of change — useful for undertaking sensitivity analyses and examining impact at locations where rainfall increases might cause major problems New York City Panel on Climate
Change:Climate Risk Information. Feb. 2009.
19
Plausible, Yet Rare … Hurricane Sandy
• Precautionary Estimate: Hurricane Sandy — that “plausible, yet rare event--where extremes might cause major problems”
29th October 2012• Storm surge approximately 14 feet above mean low water• Losses estimated at $19 billion • 1.6 billion gallons of partially or untreated sewage leaked into waterways
NYCDEP extended the assessment to include all watersheds, pump stations and WWTPs and develop adaptations and cost for a system-wide Adaptation Plan
Systems Analyses Include All Flood Pathwaysand Equipment Inventory
Systems Assessment Results in City-wide Adaptation Plan
• Evaluation of specific climate risks for pilot watershed and WW facilities for two plausible climate scenarios
• Plus Hurricane Sandy
• Plus evaluations of specific climate risks for all, watersheds, pump stations and WWTPs
• Plus cost evaluations
...Leading to a System-wide Adaptation Plan
Systems Thinking for Sustainable Basin Management
A systems approach for the climate-changed futureof the Colorado River Basin
NPS Photograph
Reclamation and Stakeholders Partner for Basin Solutions
• 40 million people affected by Colorado River System (M&I, agriculture, hydropower, Native American tribes and communities, ecosystems, recreation)
• Rapidly growing, semi-arid to arid region – 14 years of drought
• WaterSmart — UCR and LCR work with 7 States
• Increasing uncertainty — climate risk creates water supply and demand imbalances
DevelopUncertainty Approach
Colorado River Basin Study Integrated Systems Thinkingfor Sustainable Basin Management
Assess Current and
Future Supply for
M&I, Energy, Ag, Tribes,
Ecosystems, Recreation
PHASE 1
Water Supply
Assessment
Assess Current and
Future Demand for M&I, Energy, Ag, Tribes,
Ecosystems, Recreation
Develop Reliability Metrics
Develop, Evaluate, and
Refine Opportunities
AssessSystem
Reliability
Implement,Measure, and
Adapt for a Sustainable CRB
PHASE 4
Opportunities and Adaptive Management
PHASE 3
Systems Performance
Measures
PHASE 2
Water Demand
Assessment
DevelopPlausible
Future Scenarios
Integrated Stakeholder Engagement
2010 Plan of Action: Sustainable Supplies through 2060
Study included assessment of multiple plausible scenarios and climate projections
25
Precipitation
Change
(%Δ)
2025 2055 2080
Temperature Change (ΔC)
2025 2055 2080
2.5
0
20552025 2080
Bottom Line: Gap in Projected Supply and Demand
Options to Address Future Water Sustainability and Reduce Supply-Demand Gaps
28
“Next Steps” for CRBS• Options further categorized
• Municipal and Industrial Conservation and Reuse• Agriculture Conservation and Water Transfers• Environmental Flows and Recreational Flows
• Each category of options has an associated Work Group comprising Reclamation, States, Tribes, and other stakeholders that will review, prioritize, and look for opportunities to implement options that support long-term sustainable resources (water, energy, ecosystems, recreation and agriculture) for the Colorado River Basin
• For the whole story please visit: www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/
29
Summary: Systems Thinking Can Enhance Water Sustainability in the Face of Climate Change
• Includes and integrates system stakeholder• Identifies appropriate system scale, interconnections, and
system sustainability goals• Identifies and describes future uncertainties and plausible
climate change scenarios and effects on the system• Identifies measures for sustainable system function• Develops alternative solutions sets to achieve the goals and
measures• Assesses ability of alternatives to meet goals and measures• Enhances and integrates the value of sustainability measures
that apply to component projects of the system
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