Systems Thinkingfor Water Sustainability:

Approaches for aClimate-Changed World

Kathy Freas, Ph. D.

One Water Leadership Summit 24 September 2013

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This Afternoon

• A few thoughts about systems

• How systems approaches are applicable to water sustainability and climate change

• A couple of examples of how systems approaches are being applied to enhance water and other resources sustainability in the face of climate change

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If you manage resources for sustainability, you manage a system

How are systems thinking and water sustainability linked?

ASCE: Civil Engineers in Sustainable Development:

—Promote multidisciplinary, whole system, integrated and multi-objective goals in all phases of project planning, design, construction, operations, and decommissioning.

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Why is a systems approach so important now?

Climate change increases uncertainty,

reduces resilience, and threatens sustainability for virtually all systems

Test and monitor

Reassess results and changing

conditions

Identify components of the system

ID how they are inter-related

ID how they are currently affected by

climate

2ID plausible

futures

Determine how climate is projected to change

for the system

Use best practices and tools

3

ID how climate

change will affect

climate-sensitive system

components and

interactions

4

Identify adaptation

options, develop

portfolios, prioritize

“Implement adaptation

options”

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A Systems Approach for Water Sustainability in the Face of Climate

Identify the scale of

system in question

Frame the sustainability

challenge and goals

Include stakeholders

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How do we do systems planning in the face of a changing climate?

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Systems Planning EnhancesWater Sustainability in a Climate-Changed World

• Climate Change and Population Growth Effects on NYC Sewer and Wastewater SystemsNYCDEP

• Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand StudyUS Bureau of Reclamation

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Scope of the StudyNYCDEP Population and Climate Change

• Consistent with NYC’s integrated climate change and sustainability planning

• Define baseline and future conditions

• Analyze vulnerability, initially for• Hunts Point WWTP• Flushing Bay Watershed

• Identify and assess adaptation options

• Work with City and stakeholders to develop citywide framework for adaptation

Two Future Climate Change Scenarios

• Central Estimate: midpoint of future climate projections based on City 2009 report

• Precautionary Estimate: a plausible, yet rare estimate of change — useful for undertaking sensitivity analyses and examining impact at locations where rainfall increases might cause major problems New York City Panel on Climate

Change:Climate Risk Information. Feb. 2009.

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Plausible, Yet Rare … Hurricane Sandy

• Precautionary Estimate: Hurricane Sandy — that “plausible, yet rare event--where extremes might cause major problems”

29th October 2012• Storm surge approximately 14 feet above mean low water• Losses estimated at $19 billion • 1.6 billion gallons of partially or untreated sewage leaked into waterways

NYCDEP extended the assessment to include all watersheds, pump stations and WWTPs and develop adaptations and cost for a system-wide Adaptation Plan

Systems Analyses Include All Flood Pathwaysand Equipment Inventory

Systems Assessment Results in City-wide Adaptation Plan

• Evaluation of specific climate risks for pilot watershed and WW facilities for two plausible climate scenarios

• Plus Hurricane Sandy

• Plus evaluations of specific climate risks for all, watersheds, pump stations and WWTPs

• Plus cost evaluations

...Leading to a System-wide Adaptation Plan

Systems Thinking for Sustainable Basin Management

A systems approach for the climate-changed futureof the Colorado River Basin

NPS Photograph

Reclamation and Stakeholders Partner for Basin Solutions

• 40 million people affected by Colorado River System (M&I, agriculture, hydropower, Native American tribes and communities, ecosystems, recreation)

• Rapidly growing, semi-arid to arid region – 14 years of drought

• WaterSmart — UCR and LCR work with 7 States

• Increasing uncertainty — climate risk creates water supply and demand imbalances

DevelopUncertainty Approach

Colorado River Basin Study Integrated Systems Thinkingfor Sustainable Basin Management

Assess Current and

Future Supply for

M&I, Energy, Ag, Tribes,

Ecosystems, Recreation

PHASE 1

Water Supply

Assessment

Assess Current and

Future Demand for M&I, Energy, Ag, Tribes,

Ecosystems, Recreation

Develop Reliability Metrics

Develop, Evaluate, and

Refine Opportunities

AssessSystem

Reliability

Implement,Measure, and

Adapt for a Sustainable CRB

PHASE 4

Opportunities and Adaptive Management

PHASE 3

Systems Performance

Measures

PHASE 2

Water Demand

Assessment

DevelopPlausible

Future Scenarios

Integrated Stakeholder Engagement

2010 Plan of Action: Sustainable Supplies through 2060

Study included assessment of multiple plausible scenarios and climate projections

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Precipitation

Change

(%Δ)

2025 2055 2080

Temperature Change (ΔC)

2025 2055 2080

2.5

0

20552025 2080

Bottom Line: Gap in Projected Supply and Demand

Options to Address Future Water Sustainability and Reduce Supply-Demand Gaps

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“Next Steps” for CRBS• Options further categorized

• Municipal and Industrial Conservation and Reuse• Agriculture Conservation and Water Transfers• Environmental Flows and Recreational Flows

• Each category of options has an associated Work Group comprising Reclamation, States, Tribes, and other stakeholders that will review, prioritize, and look for opportunities to implement options that support long-term sustainable resources (water, energy, ecosystems, recreation and agriculture) for the Colorado River Basin

• For the whole story please visit: www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/

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Summary: Systems Thinking Can Enhance Water Sustainability in the Face of Climate Change

• Includes and integrates system stakeholder• Identifies appropriate system scale, interconnections, and

system sustainability goals• Identifies and describes future uncertainties and plausible

climate change scenarios and effects on the system• Identifies measures for sustainable system function• Develops alternative solutions sets to achieve the goals and

measures• Assesses ability of alternatives to meet goals and measures• Enhances and integrates the value of sustainability measures

that apply to component projects of the system